(02-17-2022 09:25 AM)IceJus10 Wrote: I never understand these comparison threads...
You may not understand why researchers attempt to make comparisons with the limited data available to them, even when the limitations of the data make any inferences rather broad or tentative.
However, it's very often the case that researchers only have very limited data, and yet do their best to analyze them - - knowing that they cannot get any definitive answers, and that they will end up with are more questions.
That's what much of exploratory science is. For example sending probes to distant moons even though the data are so limited that the main product is that we learn to ask better questions.
You do the best you can, or you simply throw your hands up in the air and say "it's pointless to even try to hazard a guess."
Most of the time, we'd rather have some idea of what might be coming our way, even though we know that nothing every goes exactly the way that they're predicted to go.
(02-17-2022 09:25 AM)IceJus10 Wrote: It is not apples to apples comparison - those numbers go up and down game by game and if your opponents and outcomes are different, the numbers are different.
That's true, there is certainly some lack of
commensurability, but there is one basic fact that is more or less "apples to apples" (the "apples" in this case being Massey Composite Rankings "apples"):
Fact: three top 100 caliber programs will be replaced with two top 100 caliber programs, two #100 to #150 caliber programs and two #170-#330 caliber programs
Fact: The current average Massey composite ranking of UH, UC, & UCF is 61.7
Fact: The current average Massey composite ranking of the 6 newcomers is 152.2
Fact: Replacing 3 schools (average rank=62) with 6 schools (average rank=152) in the computation of the average for the 14 future AAC schools does result in a lower ranking down the current Massey composite ranking (135.44, vs. 106).
As stated above, the AAC would still be a top 8, 9, or 10 conference, so it's not a doomsday scenario by any means, but the conference could certainly be knocked out of 7th place for a period of time. For how long, nobody knows, since it will depend on how things evolve going forward.
The above post also made it clear that there are some positive factors operating that are likely to limit the damage to the conference's rankings. Thus, the AAC might be able to remain more competitive with the MWC than the current rankings data tend to suggest.
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