A weak AAC is actually a great thing for SMU. I'm not sure Jankovich could coach us through a strong AAC, but I believe he does have the ability to get SMU to a 17-1 to 15-3 conference record in this year's AAC. That should be enough to get SMU in the NCAA tournament. Especially if Dayton keeps winning and more teams like UNLV pull off upsets at places like Colorado State.

(01-29-2022 12:34 AM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  

(01-28-2022 11:48 PM)ShockerFever Wrote:  The only way this league is getting 2 in is if Houston loses in the conference tournament. Period.

Optimists can do their thang, but I’m here to provide the reality check.

Says the guy whose team is in 9th place in the AAC and is 10-7 overall. Two or more teams can get in with all of February and early March to go. WSU won't be one of them. Sorry dude, Marshall getting canned was a biitch.

Solid, irrelevant post. Kinda like your basketball program lately.

(01-29-2022 12:03 AM)pesik Wrote:  

(01-28-2022 11:48 PM)ShockerFever Wrote:  The only way this league is getting 2 in is if Houston loses in the conference tournament. Period.

Optimists can do their thang, but I’m here to provide the reality check.

smu has a net of 50... why are making it seem like an impossibility

they are favored in every game but its Houston games ... going 9-2 the rest of the way and they are probably 8 or 9 seed not even sweating on selection Sunday

they can probably survive 7-4 if its the right quality loss (like @wichita)

not even adding they might sneak a win vs an injured houston... they sweep houston and winout they might get a 5-6 seed...

not sure why you are making it seem like all the doors are already closed

You ignored me the last time I asked so I’ll ask again. What did SMU do in the non-con?

Beating up on a league of weaker than expected teams won’t move the needle too much. I’ll concede a sweep of Houston would give SMU their only two quality wins if the year so I suppose there’s an outside chance of that happening but they can’t lose more than another game or two then the rest of the way.

There have been plenty of non-P5 teams that have gotten the shaft with lofty NET or RPI rankings in years past, especially when said team has zero quality wins.

People can get mad all they want. I wish it wasn’t this way. I’m just calling it how I’m seeing it.

(01-28-2022 11:47 PM)ShockerFever Wrote:  

(01-28-2022 04:17 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(01-28-2022 03:41 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(01-28-2022 11:37 AM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  SMU #50
UC #69
Memphis #74
Wichita St #79
UCF #80

Nine of Houston's last 12 games are against this group, including five on the road vs. the group.

The "meat" of the schedule. I expect several Ls.

I think UH will win most but a couple of loses would help that team out.

Losses helps teams how?

Because a UH loss to SMU or any of the other fighting to get in tournament, helps moves them up

(01-29-2022 09:53 AM)ShockerFever Wrote:  

(01-29-2022 12:03 AM)pesik Wrote:  

(01-28-2022 11:48 PM)ShockerFever Wrote:  The only way this league is getting 2 in is if Houston loses in the conference tournament. Period.

Optimists can do their thang, but I’m here to provide the reality check.

smu has a net of 50... why are making it seem like an impossibility

they are favored in every game but its Houston games ... going 9-2 the rest of the way and they are probably 8 or 9 seed not even sweating on selection Sunday

they can probably survive 7-4 if its the right quality loss (like @wichita)

not even adding they might sneak a win vs an injured houston... they sweep houston and winout they might get a 5-6 seed...

not sure why you are making it seem like all the doors are already closed

You ignored me the last time I asked so I’ll ask again. What did SMU do in the non-con?

Beating up on a league of weaker than expected teams won’t move the needle too much. I’ll concede a sweep of Houston would give SMU their only two quality wins if the year so I suppose there’s an outside chance of that happening but they can’t lose more than another game or two then the rest of the way.

There have been plenty of non-P5 teams that have gotten the shaft with lofty NET or RPI rankings in years past, especially when said team has zero quality wins.

People can get mad all they want. I wish it wasn’t this way. I’m just calling it how I’m seeing it.

The more the season progresses the more Dayton turns into a quality win.

(01-29-2022 10:06 AM)mustangxc Wrote:  

(01-29-2022 09:53 AM)ShockerFever Wrote:  

(01-29-2022 12:03 AM)pesik Wrote:  

(01-28-2022 11:48 PM)ShockerFever Wrote:  The only way this league is getting 2 in is if Houston loses in the conference tournament. Period.

Optimists can do their thang, but I’m here to provide the reality check.

smu has a net of 50... why are making it seem like an impossibility

they are favored in every game but its Houston games ... going 9-2 the rest of the way and they are probably 8 or 9 seed not even sweating on selection Sunday

they can probably survive 7-4 if its the right quality loss (like @wichita)

not even adding they might sneak a win vs an injured houston... they sweep houston and winout they might get a 5-6 seed...

not sure why you are making it seem like all the doors are already closed

You ignored me the last time I asked so I’ll ask again. What did SMU do in the non-con?

Beating up on a league of weaker than expected teams won’t move the needle too much. I’ll concede a sweep of Houston would give SMU their only two quality wins if the year so I suppose there’s an outside chance of that happening but they can’t lose more than another game or two then the rest of the way.

There have been plenty of non-P5 teams that have gotten the shaft with lofty NET or RPI rankings in years past, especially when said team has zero quality wins.

People can get mad all they want. I wish it wasn’t this way. I’m just calling it how I’m seeing it.

The more the season progresses the more Dayton turns into a quality win.

They’ve piled up some A10 wins after their awful non-con. But if you consider Dayton quality, then you consider WSU quality. I don’t think so.

Not quite. Dayton had 3 atrocious losses in the first 4 games of their season. After that they have been 13-4 with wins against Kansas and Virginia Tech. If they keep improving they may even win the Atlantic 10 regular season championship. You started off ok but have been mediocre to pretty bad as of late. I hope you don't figure it out by the time we play each other though.

(01-29-2022 09:34 AM)mustangxc Wrote:  A weak AAC is actually a great thing for SMU. I'm not sure Jankovich could coach us through a strong AAC, but I believe he does have the ability to get SMU to a 17-1 to 15-3 conference record in this year's AAC. That should be enough to get SMU in the NCAA tournament. Especially if Dayton keeps winning and more teams like UNLV pull off upsets at places like Colorado State.

^ this

(01-29-2022 09:53 AM)ShockerFever Wrote:  

(01-29-2022 12:03 AM)pesik Wrote:  

(01-28-2022 11:48 PM)ShockerFever Wrote:  The only way this league is getting 2 in is if Houston loses in the conference tournament. Period.

Optimists can do their thang, but I’m here to provide the reality check.

smu has a net of 50... why are making it seem like an impossibility

they are favored in every game but its Houston games ... going 9-2 the rest of the way and they are probably 8 or 9 seed not even sweating on selection Sunday

they can probably survive 7-4 if its the right quality loss (like @wichita)

not even adding they might sneak a win vs an injured houston... they sweep houston and winout they might get a 5-6 seed...

not sure why you are making it seem like all the doors are already closed

You ignored me the last time I asked so I’ll ask again. What did SMU do in the non-con?

Beating up on a league of weaker than expected teams won’t move the needle too much. I’ll concede a sweep of Houston would give SMU their only two quality wins if the year so I suppose there’s an outside chance of that happening but they can’t lose more than another game or two then the rest of the way.

There have been plenty of non-P5 teams that have gotten the shaft with lofty NET or RPI rankings in years past, especially when said team has zero quality wins.

People can get mad all they want. I wish it wasn’t this way. I’m just calling it how I’m seeing it.

my bad didn't notice till now, and just saw this

but to answer yuor question, they didnt don anything major in the noncon.. but it doesnt matter
at 25-7 (3 more losses) theyd be in the 30s in the NET AND #2 in the AAC, i think they are in and not even at risk like a 9-10seed... (not 11 or 12)

(01-29-2022 10:25 AM)mustangxc Wrote:  Not quite. Dayton had 3 atrocious losses in the first 4 games of their season. After that they have been 13-4 with wins against Kansas and Virginia Tech. If they keep improving they may even win the Atlantic 10 regular season championship. You started off ok but have been mediocre to pretty bad as of late. I hope you don't figure it out by the time we play each other though.

Was SMU one of their “atrocious“ losses

j/k

Teamcast from bartorvik projects SMU to go 13-5 in the conference and be the 3rd team out. However if you make one of those wins over Houston suddenly they're projected to be a 10 seed.

It's very feasible one or two teams play their way in.

https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?rank...m=&x5_res=

(01-29-2022 06:35 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Teamcast from bartorvik projects SMU to go 13-5 in the conference and be the 3rd team out. However if you make one of those wins over Houston suddenly they're projected to be a 10 seed.

It's very feasible one or two teams play their way in.

https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?rank...m=&x5_res=

what are the other 2 projected losses.. they have 1.. im assuming 2 others are houston..

@wichita and @temple are the only tough away games they have left and smu will be seen as likely to win those

(01-29-2022 06:38 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(01-29-2022 06:35 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Teamcast from bartorvik projects SMU to go 13-5 in the conference and be the 3rd team out. However if you make one of those wins over Houston suddenly they're projected to be a 10 seed.

It's very feasible one or two teams play their way in.

https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?rank...m=&x5_res=

what are the other 2 projected losses.. they have 1.. im assuming 2 others are houston..

@wichita and @temple are the only tough away games they have left and smu will be seen as likely to win those

No specific game or projected as a w/l. There are just odds on each. So for example if have 5 games where you're 80% to win each then you'd be projected to go 4-1 over that stretch. Teamcast doesn't guess the game but gives estimated records.

However I can manually adjust so I made the home Houston game a win.

(01-28-2022 11:48 PM)ShockerFever Wrote:  The only way this league is getting 2 in is if Houston loses in the conference tournament.

Disagree, because (16-4) SMU could win 24 games by winning 8 more games between now and game 3 of the AAC tourney.

With 11, 12, or 13 games remaining, they could notch 24 wins by going 8-3, 8-4, or 8-5. It seems likely, albeit not 100% certain, that they can do that.

2/3 vs. WSU
2/5 @ WSU.
2/9 vs. Houston
2/12 @ ECU.
2/16 @ Temple. SMU might have to win 3 (19-6) or 4 (20-5) of these 5 games.
2/20 vs. Memphis.
2/23 vs. Tulsa.
2/27 @ Houston.
3/3 vs. Cincy
3/6 vs. Tulane. SMU might have to win 3 or 4 of these 5 games to get to 22/23 wins.

AAC Tournament: SMU might have to win 1 or 2 of these games to get to 24 wins.

Note: Top 100-ranked teams are bolded.

Torvok (https://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=SMU) lists SMU as being favored (having a 64% chance or better) to win 7 of their last 10 regular season games (all except @ WSU, vs. Houston, and @ Houston).

Massey (https://masseyratings.com/379387/7358) lists SMU as being favored (having a 57% chance or better) to win 7 of their last 10 regular season games (all except @ WSU, @ Temple, and @ Houston).


If they win 24 games, they will have a good shot to earn a NCAA at-large bid, given that every AAC team that has won 24+ games has played in the NCAA tournament.

If "24" is the magic number for the AAC - - while teams from other conferences may need to win 25, 26, or more games to earn an at-large bid, it's probably because the AAC has consistently been the #7 or #8-ranked conference.

.

If SMU can win 7 of their next 10 games, they're likely to earn a NCAA at-large bid by winning their first-round AAC tournament game.

If they go 6-4, they might have to win two AAC tourney games to qualify for an at-large bid.

However, the selection committee might give them an at-large bid with 23 wins if Houston wins the conf. tourney and SMU is the second highest-ranked team in the conference.

.

They don't have an easy schedule, but it looks like SMU may have at least a 50/50 chance of making the tournament, at this point.

.

(01-29-2022 06:35 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Teamcast from bartorvik projects SMU to go 13-5 in the conference and be the 3rd team out. However if you make one of those wins over Houston suddenly they're projected to be a 10 seed.

It's very feasible one or two teams play their way in.

https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?rank...m=&x5_res=

The early season Missouri and Loyola-Marymount losses are not great. But SMU is 13-1 since then and looking good. If they can:

1) Finish 1st or 2nd
2) Beat Houston at least once
3) Make the conference tournament finals

I think they can get an at-large bid even if they lose in the finals.

updated net

smu takes a big drop despite winning

(01-30-2022 12:33 PM)pesik Wrote:  updated net

smu takes a big drop despite winning

Houston presently earns a top seed based on the NET which purportedly is the foundation of seeding decisions. I am very skeptical it will occur, especially if the Zags are also in the top four. Fortunately for the Cougars, the issue dissipates in two years.

Houston somehow got a 2 seed last year despite not really seeming deserving of it.

(01-30-2022 02:18 PM)maybeimhere Wrote:  Houston somehow got a 2 seed last year despite not really seeming deserving of it.

Exhibit A: 203 different bracketologies assigned Houston an average seed of 2.21
(http://bracketmatrix.com/matrix_2021.html).

Exhibit B: Houston made it to the Final Four.

Exhibit C: Houston finished the season as the #6-ranked team in the Final AP top 25.

Q.E.D.

Houston really only has 3 Q1 opportunities. This league makes me sick.