(01-13-2022 04:54 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote: Unfortunately, it appears not, for the allocation of "performance shares".
Anderson & Hester updated today.
Average ranking across the 6 former BCS computers -- A&H, Billingsley, Colley, Massey, Sagarin, and Wolfe has the mwc at 67.69444 and the AAC at 67.98485
A difference of .2904 in average ranking will mean a shortfall of six figures in dollars American for each AAC team. We'll still make a lot more in CFP revenue and a lot more per school thanks to the CFP appearance, marking six of eight seasons that the AAC has gotten the NY6 bid.
If Navy had beaten Air Force...
If the Hawaii Bowl had been played and resulted in a Memphis win...
At the moment Massey Composite has 64 ranking systems compiled, so still a little early to get excited about a 0.01 lead there.
A larger concern is that the loss of UC, UH, & UCF could enable the MWC to move ahead of the AAC in 2023-24.
However, AAC football might be able to bounce back in stature due to:
1. The addition of UTSA, UAB, and N. TX, which seem to be on the upswing.
2. The fact that some AAC remainers could rise up in stature and recruiting now that they won't be losing as many games to UC, UH, & UCF.
3. Programs such as Memphis, SMU, and Navy might well be able to "step into" UC, UH, & UCF's "shoes" becoming upper-echelon AAC programs, and could make their way back into the top 25 within 2-3 years.
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Regarding men's basketball, the AAC has fortunately moved ahead of the MWC in most of the rankings systems,
https://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm
As with football, the conference may fall behind the MWC when UH, UC, & UCF join the Big 12, although
1. The addition of (#40, NET) UAB, and (#60) North Texas should help to some extent
2. Some of the AAC remainers (e.g., Memphis, Wichita State, SMU) could rise in stature, with improving conference records, since that they won't have to contend with UC, UH, & UCF.
3. The AAC might thus develop a new "upper-tier" of NCAA-quality programs.
Some of these changes (e.g., in conference win pct) could take place almost immediately.
For example, Memphis is predicted (by barttorvik.com) to go 13-5 in the AAC, with 4 of those losses being to UCF, UH, & UC. With those 3 gone, Memphis could go 17-1 in conference play, and would have 23 wins heading into the conference tournament.
Similarly, SMU is predicted to go 14-4 in the AAC, but could go 17-1 without UH, UC, & UCF in the conference. With 9 OOC wins, SMU could end up with a record of 26-5 heading into the AAC tourney.
WSU has a 9-3 OOC record, and is predicted to go 11-7 in conference games, but could go 15-4 without UH, UCF, & UC to contend with.
That would leave Wichita State with a 24-7 record, heading into the AAC tourney.
The departure of UH, UC, and UCF could thus make the AAC - - which currently appears to be a 1 or 2 NCAA bid conference - - into a 3 bid conference.
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Losing UC, UH, & UCF and adding Rice, Charlotte, & FAU could cause the American to fall behind the MWC for a few years in the conference rankings, from top to bottom, but the conference should still have some competitive upper-echelon teams and could regain the lead in a few years.
A lot may depend on which and how many AAC and MWC teams the Big 12 poaches in the Round Two expansion that many expect.
For example, if they were to take Memphis & SMU, that could hit the AAC pretty hard, but that could be offset if they were to take Boise St. & SDSU, as well. If they were to take USF, to give UCF a travel partner, that would boost the AAC's overall rankings.
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