Unfortunately, it appears not, for the allocation of "performance shares".

Anderson & Hester updated today.

Average ranking across the 6 former BCS computers -- A&H, Billingsley, Colley, Massey, Sagarin, and Wolfe has the mwc at 67.69444 and the AAC at 67.98485

A difference of .2904 in average ranking will mean a shortfall of six figures in dollars American for each AAC team. We'll still make a lot more in CFP revenue and a lot more per school thanks to the CFP appearance, marking six of eight seasons that the AAC has gotten the NY6 bid.

If Navy had beaten Air Force...
If the Hawaii Bowl had been played and resulted in a Memphis win...

At the moment Massey Composite has 64 ranking systems compiled, so still a little early to get excited about a 0.01 lead there.

(01-13-2022 04:54 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Unfortunately, it appears not, for the allocation of "performance shares".

Anderson & Hester updated today.

Average ranking across the 6 former BCS computers -- A&H, Billingsley, Colley, Massey, Sagarin, and Wolfe has the mwc at 67.69444 and the AAC at 67.98485

A difference of .2904 in average ranking will mean a shortfall of six figures in dollars American for each AAC team. We'll still make a lot more in CFP revenue and a lot more per school thanks to the CFP appearance, marking six of eight seasons that the AAC has gotten the NY6 bid.

If Navy had beaten Air Force...
If the Hawaii Bowl had been played and resulted in a Memphis win...

At the moment Massey Composite has 64 ranking systems compiled, so still a little early to get excited about a 0.01 lead there.

A larger concern is that the loss of UC, UH, & UCF could enable the MWC to move ahead of the AAC in 2023-24.

However, AAC football might be able to bounce back in stature due to:

1. The addition of UTSA, UAB, and N. TX, which seem to be on the upswing.

2. The fact that some AAC remainers could rise up in stature and recruiting now that they won't be losing as many games to UC, UH, & UCF.

3. Programs such as Memphis, SMU, and Navy might well be able to "step into" UC, UH, & UCF's "shoes" becoming upper-echelon AAC programs, and could make their way back into the top 25 within 2-3 years.

.

Regarding men's basketball, the AAC has fortunately moved ahead of the MWC in most of the rankings systems, https://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

As with football, the conference may fall behind the MWC when UH, UC, & UCF join the Big 12, although

1. The addition of (#40, NET) UAB, and (#60) North Texas should help to some extent

2. Some of the AAC remainers (e.g., Memphis, Wichita State, SMU) could rise in stature, with improving conference records, since that they won't have to contend with UC, UH, & UCF.

3. The AAC might thus develop a new "upper-tier" of NCAA-quality programs.

Some of these changes (e.g., in conference win pct) could take place almost immediately.

For example, Memphis is predicted (by barttorvik.com) to go 13-5 in the AAC, with 4 of those losses being to UCF, UH, & UC. With those 3 gone, Memphis could go 17-1 in conference play, and would have 23 wins heading into the conference tournament.

Similarly, SMU is predicted to go 14-4 in the AAC, but could go 17-1 without UH, UC, & UCF in the conference. With 9 OOC wins, SMU could end up with a record of 26-5 heading into the AAC tourney.

WSU has a 9-3 OOC record, and is predicted to go 11-7 in conference games, but could go 15-4 without UH, UCF, & UC to contend with.

That would leave Wichita State with a 24-7 record, heading into the AAC tourney.

The departure of UH, UC, and UCF could thus make the AAC - - which currently appears to be a 1 or 2 NCAA bid conference - - into a 3 bid conference.

.

Losing UC, UH, & UCF and adding Rice, Charlotte, & FAU could cause the American to fall behind the MWC for a few years in the conference rankings, from top to bottom, but the conference should still have some competitive upper-echelon teams and could regain the lead in a few years.

A lot may depend on which and how many AAC and MWC teams the Big 12 poaches in the Round Two expansion that many expect.

For example, if they were to take Memphis & SMU, that could hit the AAC pretty hard, but that could be offset if they were to take Boise St. & SDSU, as well. If they were to take USF, to give UCF a travel partner, that would boost the AAC's overall rankings.
.

(01-15-2022 12:25 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(01-13-2022 04:54 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Unfortunately, it appears not, for the allocation of "performance shares".

Anderson & Hester updated today.

Average ranking across the 6 former BCS computers -- A&H, Billingsley, Colley, Massey, Sagarin, and Wolfe has the mwc at 67.69444 and the AAC at 67.98485

A difference of .2904 in average ranking will mean a shortfall of six figures in dollars American for each AAC team. We'll still make a lot more in CFP revenue and a lot more per school thanks to the CFP appearance, marking six of eight seasons that the AAC has gotten the NY6 bid.

If Navy had beaten Air Force...
If the Hawaii Bowl had been played and resulted in a Memphis win...

At the moment Massey Composite has 64 ranking systems compiled, so still a little early to get excited about a 0.01 lead there.

A larger concern is that the loss of UC, UH, & UCF could enable the MWC to move ahead of the AAC in 2023-24.

However, AAC football might be able to bounce back in stature due to:

1. The addition of UTSA, UAB, and N. TX, which seem to be on the upswing.

2. The fact that some AAC remainers could rise up in stature and recruiting now that they won't be losing as many games to UC, UH, & UCF.

3. Programs such as Memphis, SMU, and Navy might well be able to "step into" UC, UH, & UCF's "shoes" becoming upper-echelon AAC programs, and could make their way back into the top 25 within 2-3 years.

.

Regarding men's basketball, the AAC has fortunately moved ahead of the MWC in most of the rankings systems, https://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

As with football, the conference may fall behind the MWC when UH, UC, & UCF join the Big 12, although

1. The addition of (#40, NET) UAB, and (#60) North Texas should help to some extent

2. Some of the AAC remainers (e.g., Memphis, Wichita State, SMU) could rise in stature, with improving conference records, since that they won't have to contend with UC, UH, & UCF.

3. The AAC might thus develop a new "upper-tier" of NCAA-quality programs.

Some of these changes (e.g., in conference win pct) could take place almost immediately.

For example, Memphis is predicted (by barttorvik.com) to go 13-5 in the AAC, with 4 of those losses being to UCF, UH, & UC. With those 3 gone, Memphis could go 17-1 in conference play, and would have 23 wins heading into the conference tournament.

Similarly, SMU is predicted to go 14-4 in the AAC, but could go 17-1 without UH, UC, & UCF in the conference. With 9 OOC wins, SMU could end up with a record of 26-5 heading into the AAC tourney.

WSU has a 9-3 OOC record, and is predicted to go 11-7 in conference games, but could go 15-4 without UH, UCF, & UC to contend with.

That would leave Wichita State with a 24-7 record, heading into the AAC tourney.

The departure of UH, UC, and UCF could thus make the AAC - - which currently appears to be a 1 or 2 NCAA bid conference - - into a 3 bid conference.

.

Losing UC, UH, & UCF and adding Rice, Charlotte, & FAU could cause the American to fall behind the MWC for a few years in the conference rankings, from top to bottom, but the conference should still have some competitive upper-echelon teams and could regain the lead in a few years.

A lot may depend on which and how many AAC and MWC teams the Big 12 poaches in the Round Two expansion that many expect.

For example, if they were to take Memphis & SMU, that could hit the AAC pretty hard, but that could be offset if they were to take Boise St. & SDSU, as well. If they were to take USF, to give UCF a travel partner, that would boost the AAC's overall rankings.
.

USF football will be back up sooner than you might think. Remember we were top 25 just 4 years ago. Too much talent in our state for a team to stay down for long.

(01-15-2022 03:28 AM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(01-15-2022 12:25 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(01-13-2022 04:54 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Unfortunately, it appears not, for the allocation of "performance shares".

Anderson & Hester updated today.

Average ranking across the 6 former BCS computers -- A&H, Billingsley, Colley, Massey, Sagarin, and Wolfe has the mwc at 67.69444 and the AAC at 67.98485

A difference of .2904 in average ranking will mean a shortfall of six figures in dollars American for each AAC team. We'll still make a lot more in CFP revenue and a lot more per school thanks to the CFP appearance, marking six of eight seasons that the AAC has gotten the NY6 bid.

If Navy had beaten Air Force...
If the Hawaii Bowl had been played and resulted in a Memphis win...

At the moment Massey Composite has 64 ranking systems compiled, so still a little early to get excited about a 0.01 lead there.

A larger concern is that the loss of UC, UH, & UCF could enable the MWC to move ahead of the AAC in 2023-24.

However, AAC football might be able to bounce back in stature due to:

1. The addition of UTSA, UAB, and N. TX, which seem to be on the upswing.

2. The fact that some AAC remainers could rise up in stature and recruiting now that they won't be losing as many games to UC, UH, & UCF.

3. Programs such as Memphis, SMU, and Navy might well be able to "step into" UC, UH, & UCF's "shoes" becoming upper-echelon AAC programs, and could make their way back into the top 25 within 2-3 years.

.

Regarding men's basketball, the AAC has fortunately moved ahead of the MWC in most of the rankings systems, https://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

As with football, the conference may fall behind the MWC when UH, UC, & UCF join the Big 12, although

1. The addition of (#40, NET) UAB, and (#60) North Texas should help to some extent

2. Some of the AAC remainers (e.g., Memphis, Wichita State, SMU) could rise in stature, with improving conference records, since that they won't have to contend with UC, UH, & UCF.

3. The AAC might thus develop a new "upper-tier" of NCAA-quality programs.

Some of these changes (e.g., in conference win pct) could take place almost immediately.

For example, Memphis is predicted (by barttorvik.com) to go 13-5 in the AAC, with 4 of those losses being to UCF, UH, & UC. With those 3 gone, Memphis could go 17-1 in conference play, and would have 23 wins heading into the conference tournament.

Similarly, SMU is predicted to go 14-4 in the AAC, but could go 17-1 without UH, UC, & UCF in the conference. With 9 OOC wins, SMU could end up with a record of 26-5 heading into the AAC tourney.

WSU has a 9-3 OOC record, and is predicted to go 11-7 in conference games, but could go 15-4 without UH, UCF, & UC to contend with.

That would leave Wichita State with a 24-7 record, heading into the AAC tourney.

The departure of UH, UC, and UCF could thus make the AAC - - which currently appears to be a 1 or 2 NCAA bid conference - - into a 3 bid conference.

.

Losing UC, UH, & UCF and adding Rice, Charlotte, & FAU could cause the American to fall behind the MWC for a few years in the conference rankings, from top to bottom, but the conference should still have some competitive upper-echelon teams and could regain the lead in a few years.

A lot may depend on which and how many AAC and MWC teams the Big 12 poaches in the Round Two expansion that many expect.

For example, if they were to take Memphis & SMU, that could hit the AAC pretty hard, but that could be offset if they were to take Boise St. & SDSU, as well. If they were to take USF, to give UCF a travel partner, that would boost the AAC's overall rankings.
.

USF football will be back up sooner than you might think. Remember we were top 25 just 4 years ago. Too much talent in our state for a team to stay down for long.

This year is a big one for USF.

(01-15-2022 01:38 PM)B easy Wrote:  

(01-15-2022 03:28 AM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(01-15-2022 12:25 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(01-13-2022 04:54 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Unfortunately, it appears not, for the allocation of "performance shares".

Anderson & Hester updated today.

Average ranking across the 6 former BCS computers -- A&H, Billingsley, Colley, Massey, Sagarin, and Wolfe has the mwc at 67.69444 and the AAC at 67.98485

A difference of .2904 in average ranking will mean a shortfall of six figures in dollars American for each AAC team. We'll still make a lot more in CFP revenue and a lot more per school thanks to the CFP appearance, marking six of eight seasons that the AAC has gotten the NY6 bid.

If Navy had beaten Air Force...
If the Hawaii Bowl had been played and resulted in a Memphis win...

At the moment Massey Composite has 64 ranking systems compiled, so still a little early to get excited about a 0.01 lead there.

A larger concern is that the loss of UC, UH, & UCF could enable the MWC to move ahead of the AAC in 2023-24.

However, AAC football might be able to bounce back in stature due to:

1. The addition of UTSA, UAB, and N. TX, which seem to be on the upswing.

2. The fact that some AAC remainers could rise up in stature and recruiting now that they won't be losing as many games to UC, UH, & UCF.

3. Programs such as Memphis, SMU, and Navy might well be able to "step into" UC, UH, & UCF's "shoes" becoming upper-echelon AAC programs, and could make their way back into the top 25 within 2-3 years.

.

Regarding men's basketball, the AAC has fortunately moved ahead of the MWC in most of the rankings systems, https://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

As with football, the conference may fall behind the MWC when UH, UC, & UCF join the Big 12, although

1. The addition of (#40, NET) UAB, and (#60) North Texas should help to some extent

2. Some of the AAC remainers (e.g., Memphis, Wichita State, SMU) could rise in stature, with improving conference records, since that they won't have to contend with UC, UH, & UCF.

3. The AAC might thus develop a new "upper-tier" of NCAA-quality programs.

Some of these changes (e.g., in conference win pct) could take place almost immediately.

For example, Memphis is predicted (by barttorvik.com) to go 13-5 in the AAC, with 4 of those losses being to UCF, UH, & UC. With those 3 gone, Memphis could go 17-1 in conference play, and would have 23 wins heading into the conference tournament.

Similarly, SMU is predicted to go 14-4 in the AAC, but could go 17-1 without UH, UC, & UCF in the conference. With 9 OOC wins, SMU could end up with a record of 26-5 heading into the AAC tourney.

WSU has a 9-3 OOC record, and is predicted to go 11-7 in conference games, but could go 15-4 without UH, UCF, & UC to contend with.

That would leave Wichita State with a 24-7 record, heading into the AAC tourney.

The departure of UH, UC, and UCF could thus make the AAC - - which currently appears to be a 1 or 2 NCAA bid conference - - into a 3 bid conference.

.

Losing UC, UH, & UCF and adding Rice, Charlotte, & FAU could cause the American to fall behind the MWC for a few years in the conference rankings, from top to bottom, but the conference should still have some competitive upper-echelon teams and could regain the lead in a few years.

A lot may depend on which and how many AAC and MWC teams the Big 12 poaches in the Round Two expansion that many expect.

For example, if they were to take Memphis & SMU, that could hit the AAC pretty hard, but that could be offset if they were to take Boise St. & SDSU, as well. If they were to take USF, to give UCF a travel partner, that would boost the AAC's overall rankings.
.

USF football will be back up sooner than you might think. Remember we were top 25 just 4 years ago. Too much talent in our state for a team to stay down for long.

This year is a big one for USF.

I think 2013 is setting up as the big one. Next year could be anywhere from 4 to 7 wins depending on how good the new talent is and how much the youngsters like McClain improve.

(01-13-2022 04:54 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  A difference of .2904 in average ranking will mean a shortfall of six figures in dollars American for each AAC team. We'll still make a lot more in CFP revenue and a lot more per school thanks to the CFP appearance, marking six of eight seasons that the AAC has gotten the NY6 bid.

Don't really follow all this. AAC is not #1 in CFP revenue, but will make a lot more in CFP revenue?

Do you just mean more than last year, or more than the other conferences?

(01-15-2022 03:10 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(01-13-2022 04:54 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  A difference of .2904 in average ranking will mean a shortfall of six figures in dollars American for each AAC team. We'll still make a lot more in CFP revenue and a lot more per school thanks to the CFP appearance, marking six of eight seasons that the AAC has gotten the NY6 bid.

Don't really follow all this. AAC is not #1 in CFP revenue, but will make a lot more in CFP revenue?

Do you just mean more than last year, or more than the other conferences?

For the non-contract bowl conferences, the CFP revenue has been about $91 million for the last few years. About 70% of that is divided evenly, with the remainder being distribtuted according to performance -- five "performance shares" to the conference finishing #1, four shared to #2, three to #3, two to #4, and one to #5. Reportedly, the performance is measured by the conferences' average ranking across the six computer ranking systems formerly used by the BCS.

The AAC was not the #1 performing conference among this group - #2 behind the mwc.
However, a performance share has in the recent past been about $1.4 million, so more than made up for with NY6 / CFP bowl appearance money (plus the expenses money for the participating school which still is distributed via the CFP revenue distribution to the conference).

Expect the 2021-22 CFP revenue for the non-contract-bowl conferences to be about:
AAC $27 million
mwc $20 million
SBC $17 million
CUSA $15.5 million
MAC $14 million

(01-15-2022 12:25 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(01-13-2022 04:54 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Unfortunately, it appears not, for the allocation of "performance shares".

Anderson & Hester updated today.

Average ranking across the 6 former BCS computers -- A&H, Billingsley, Colley, Massey, Sagarin, and Wolfe has the mwc at 67.69444 and the AAC at 67.98485

A difference of .2904 in average ranking will mean a shortfall of six figures in dollars American for each AAC team. We'll still make a lot more in CFP revenue and a lot more per school thanks to the CFP appearance, marking six of eight seasons that the AAC has gotten the NY6 bid.

If Navy had beaten Air Force...
If the Hawaii Bowl had been played and resulted in a Memphis win...

At the moment Massey Composite has 64 ranking systems compiled, so still a little early to get excited about a 0.01 lead there.

A larger concern is that the loss of UC, UH, & UCF could enable the MWC to move ahead of the AAC in 2023-24.

However, AAC football might be able to bounce back in stature due to:

1. The addition of UTSA, UAB, and N. TX, which seem to be on the upswing.

2. The fact that some AAC remainers could rise up in stature and recruiting now that they won't be losing as many games to UC, UH, & UCF.

3. Programs such as Memphis, SMU, and Navy might well be able to "step into" UC, UH, & UCF's "shoes" becoming upper-echelon AAC programs, and could make their way back into the top 25 within 2-3 years.

.

Regarding men's basketball, the AAC has fortunately moved ahead of the MWC in most of the rankings systems, https://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

As with football, the conference may fall behind the MWC when UH, UC, & UCF join the Big 12, although

1. The addition of (#40, NET) UAB, and (#60) North Texas should help to some extent

2. Some of the AAC remainers (e.g., Memphis, Wichita State, SMU) could rise in stature, with improving conference records, since that they won't have to contend with UC, UH, & UCF.

3. The AAC might thus develop a new "upper-tier" of NCAA-quality programs.

Some of these changes (e.g., in conference win pct) could take place almost immediately.

For example, Memphis is predicted (by barttorvik.com) to go 13-5 in the AAC, with 4 of those losses being to UCF, UH, & UC. With those 3 gone, Memphis could go 17-1 in conference play, and would have 23 wins heading into the conference tournament.

Similarly, SMU is predicted to go 14-4 in the AAC, but could go 17-1 without UH, UC, & UCF in the conference. With 9 OOC wins, SMU could end up with a record of 26-5 heading into the AAC tourney.

WSU has a 9-3 OOC record, and is predicted to go 11-7 in conference games, but could go 15-4 without UH, UCF, & UC to contend with.

That would leave Wichita State with a 24-7 record, heading into the AAC tourney.

The departure of UH, UC, and UCF could thus make the AAC - - which currently appears to be a 1 or 2 NCAA bid conference - - into a 3 bid conference.

.

Losing UC, UH, & UCF and adding Rice, Charlotte, & FAU could cause the American to fall behind the MWC for a few years in the conference rankings, from top to bottom, but the conference should still have some competitive upper-echelon teams and could regain the lead in a few years.

A lot may depend on which and how many AAC and MWC teams the Big 12 poaches in the Round Two expansion that many expect.

For example, if they were to take Memphis & SMU, that could hit the AAC pretty hard, but that could be offset if they were to take Boise St. & SDSU, as well. If they were to take USF, to give UCF a travel partner, that would boost the AAC's overall rankings.
.

One thing to note -- the mwc performance this year is an outlier for them. And the Sun Belt has regressed to the mean after 2020's extreme outlier performance.

I don't have the six BCS computers for year-on-year comparisons, but I do have Massey Composite year-end conference rankings.
This year's Massey Composite isn't done YET -- note in my OP, AAC was up 0.01 with 66 rankings compiled but at the moment with 69 rankings compiled mwc is up 0.01 (and the PAC12 remains in reach only up 0.63/0.64), but for a quick look:

mwc 2014-2021
2014 76.73
2015 86.79
2016 78.46
2017 83.81
2018 77.32
2019 74.57
2020 76.31
7 year average - 79.12875
2021 68.85

AAC 2014-2021
2014 83.93
2015 68.95
2016 68.68
2017 66.69
2018 79.8
2019 60.28
2020 68.98
7 year average - 71.17
2021 68.86

So, the two neck-and-neck finishes this year, one of those is an outlier and one is a standard year.

What about after the moves?
It is more complex than just pulling this year's numbers for all fourteen future AAC teams. As you say, when three of our top four move out, there are a lot fewer Ls that they gave the rest of us.
But if I DID just pull those fourteen teams this year, with the eight remainers all still having the dampening of this year's top...the fourteen average within a handful of spots of the mwc 7 year average.

Lots to happen between now and then. Our new-look AAC will no longer be clearly ahead of the mwc et al, but this conference will be in the fight for the NY6 / 6+6 / 5+1+6 spot as well as for the #1 cash haul in CFP performance share money.

I'll let others debate basketball -- the Patriot League will still be a one-bid league in both MBB and WBB.

Ummm no

(01-15-2022 10:18 PM)Reggie Favre Wrote:  Ummm no

Post #7 says Yes.

(01-15-2022 10:18 PM)Reggie Favre Wrote:  Ummm no

Fun.
I gotta admit, I was hoping one of you guys would show up. The former and future Sun Belt fans have created this mythology that after the moves they'll somehow surpass the American. Let's take a look at that.

First of all, past to present...let's add the Sun Belt to the earlier comparison of the AAC and the mwc:
mwc 2014-2021
2014 76.73
2015 86.79
2016 78.46
2017 83.81
2018 77.32
2019 74.57
2020 76.31
7 year average - 79.12875
2021 68.85

AAC 2014-2021
2014 83.93
2015 68.95
2016 68.68
2017 66.69
2018 79.8
2019 60.28
2020 68.98
7 year average - 71.17
2021 68.86

Sun Belt 2014-2021
2014 98.72
2015 93.71
2016 87.04
2017 98.53
2018 84.1
2019 82.72
2020 71.97
7 year average - 87.84
2021 83.57

Sun Belters got REALLY froggy with their extreme outlier year in (bizarre COVID 2020 stats) 2020...they've now regressed to the mean but don't even realize it.
A big part of this mythology is that the AAC added "marketz" but the Sun Belt added powerhouses. We all know that ACTUALLY the AAC added the last five CUSA champions, and the Sun Belt adds include CUSA cellar dwellers.
Let's look at the Massey Composite (still incomplete) for the 2021 season...
AAC additions average ranking is 84.17
Sun Belt FBS additions average ranking is 98.67
Let's give JMU the benefit of the doubt and equal to the BEST of the Sun Belt adds - 92.75

WHATTTT!!?!
The AAC additions are hugely ahead of the Sun Belt additions?
Yes, yes they are.

So let's look at the new conferences, AAC-14 vs SunBelt-14
For the six BCS computers (the determinant of the CFP performance share money) really quickly shuffling rows in my spreadsheet (obviously no JMU included)...

The 2021 average rankings of the future AAC vs the future Sun Belt:
Future AAC - 83.87
Future Sun Belt - 86.10

The future AAC is ahead of the future Sun Belt today.
Then, as we've discussed, when Cincinnati, Houston, UCF depart the top of the remainers (SMU, Memphis, ECU, Navy, USF) will move up somewhat. Barring some scenario where the top remainers AND the top incoming teams all simultaneously poop the bed out-of-conference the top of the AAC will all move up -- almost certainly not to #6 like Cincinnati is now, but the top will move up.

I'm not worried about the AAC-14 staying ahead of the SunBelt-14. At. All.

Enjoy your bus league, though.

(01-15-2022 11:19 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(01-15-2022 10:18 PM)Reggie Favre Wrote:  Ummm no

Fun.
I gotta admit, I was hoping one of you guys would show up. The former and future Sun Belt fans have created this mythology that after the moves they'll somehow surpass the American. Let's take a look at that.

First of all, past to present...let's add the Sun Belt to the earlier comparison of the AAC and the mwc:
mwc 2014-2021
2014 76.73
2015 86.79
2016 78.46
2017 83.81
2018 77.32
2019 74.57
2020 76.31
7 year average - 79.12875
2021 68.85

AAC 2014-2021
2014 83.93
2015 68.95
2016 68.68
2017 66.69
2018 79.8
2019 60.28
2020 68.98
7 year average - 71.17
2021 68.86

Sun Belt 2014-2021
2014 98.72
2015 93.71
2016 87.04
2017 98.53
2018 84.1
2019 82.72
2020 71.97
7 year average - 87.84
2021 83.57

Sun Belters got REALLY froggy with their extreme outlier year in (bizarre COVID 2020 stats) 2020...they've now regressed to the mean but don't even realize it.
A big part of this mythology is that the AAC added "marketz" but the Sun Belt added powerhouses. We all know that ACTUALLY the AAC added the last five CUSA champions, and the Sun Belt adds include CUSA cellar dwellers.
Let's look at the Massey Composite (still incomplete) for the 2021 season...
AAC additions average ranking is 84.17
Sun Belt FBS additions average ranking is 98.67
Let's give JMU the benefit of the doubt and equal to the BEST of the Sun Belt adds - 92.75

WHATTTT!!?!
The AAC additions are hugely ahead of the Sun Belt additions?
Yes, yes they are.

So let's look at the new conferences, AAC-14 vs SunBelt-14
For the six BCS computers (the determinant of the CFP performance share money) really quickly shuffling rows in my spreadsheet (obviously no JMU included)...

The 2021 average rankings of the future AAC vs the future Sun Belt:
Future AAC - 83.87
Future Sun Belt - 86.10

The future AAC is ahead of the future Sun Belt today.
Then, as we've discussed, when Cincinnati, Houston, UCF depart the top of the remainers (SMU, Memphis, ECU, Navy, USF) will move up somewhat. Barring some scenario where the top remainers AND the top incoming teams all simultaneously poop the bed out-of-conference the top of the AAC will all move up -- almost certainly not to #6 like Cincinnati is now, but the top will move up.

I'm not worried about the AAC-14 staying ahead of the SunBelt-14. At. All.

Enjoy your bus league, though.

Too long. Did not read.

That, along with the thread itself, tells all. I see why you are all so nervous. You are truly Cusa now. Good luck with the garbage conference youre left with here.

(01-16-2022 09:20 AM)Reggie Favre Wrote:  Too long. Did not read.

That, along with the tread itself, tells all. I see why you are all so nervous. You are truly Cusa now. Good luck with the garbage conference youre left with here.

Since you have trouble reading, here's the short version.

AAC additions already rank ahead of the Sun Belt additions. That's largely #123-ranked Southern Mississippi's fault.

2021 rankings by the six BCS computers
Future AAC average ranking 83.87
Future SBC average ranking 86.10
Again, USM actually brings DOWN the average ranking of the Sun Belt because you are ranked SO low.
And the top of the future AAC will move UP from where they are now with the departure of three of our top four.

I'm not worried about the AAC-14 staying ahead of the SunBelt-14. At. All.

Enjoy your bus league.

(01-15-2022 04:42 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(01-15-2022 03:10 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(01-13-2022 04:54 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  A difference of .2904 in average ranking will mean a shortfall of six figures in dollars American for each AAC team. We'll still make a lot more in CFP revenue and a lot more per school thanks to the CFP appearance, marking six of eight seasons that the AAC has gotten the NY6 bid.

Don't really follow all this. AAC is not #1 in CFP revenue, but will make a lot more in CFP revenue?

Do you just mean more than last year, or more than the other conferences?

For the non-contract bowl conferences, the CFP revenue has been about $91 million for the last few years. About 70% of that is divided evenly, with the remainder being distribtuted according to performance -- five "performance shares" to the conference finishing #1, four shared to #2, three to #3, two to #4, and one to #5. Reportedly, the performance is measured by the conferences' average ranking across the six computer ranking systems formerly used by the BCS.

The AAC was not the #1 performing conference among this group - #2 behind the mwc.
However, a performance share has in the recent past been about $1.4 million, so more than made up for with NY6 / CFP bowl appearance money (plus the expenses money for the participating school which still is distributed via the CFP revenue distribution to the conference).

Expect the 2021-22 CFP revenue for the non-contract-bowl conferences to be about:
AAC $27 million
mwc $20 million
SBC $17 million
CUSA $15.5 million
MAC $14 million

Thanks for the clarification, and for schooling us all per usual.

(01-16-2022 09:20 AM)Reggie Favre Wrote:  

(01-15-2022 11:19 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(01-15-2022 10:18 PM)Reggie Favre Wrote:  Ummm no

Fun.
I gotta admit, I was hoping one of you guys would show up. The former and future Sun Belt fans have created this mythology that after the moves they'll somehow surpass the American. Let's take a look at that.

First of all, past to present...let's add the Sun Belt to the earlier comparison of the AAC and the mwc:
mwc 2014-2021
2014 76.73
2015 86.79
2016 78.46
2017 83.81
2018 77.32
2019 74.57
2020 76.31
7 year average - 79.12875
2021 68.85

AAC 2014-2021
2014 83.93
2015 68.95
2016 68.68
2017 66.69
2018 79.8
2019 60.28
2020 68.98
7 year average - 71.17
2021 68.86

Sun Belt 2014-2021
2014 98.72
2015 93.71
2016 87.04
2017 98.53
2018 84.1
2019 82.72
2020 71.97
7 year average - 87.84
2021 83.57

Sun Belters got REALLY froggy with their extreme outlier year in (bizarre COVID 2020 stats) 2020...they've now regressed to the mean but don't even realize it.
A big part of this mythology is that the AAC added "marketz" but the Sun Belt added powerhouses. We all know that ACTUALLY the AAC added the last five CUSA champions, and the Sun Belt adds include CUSA cellar dwellers.
Let's look at the Massey Composite (still incomplete) for the 2021 season...
AAC additions average ranking is 84.17
Sun Belt FBS additions average ranking is 98.67
Let's give JMU the benefit of the doubt and equal to the BEST of the Sun Belt adds - 92.75

WHATTTT!!?!
The AAC additions are hugely ahead of the Sun Belt additions?
Yes, yes they are.

So let's look at the new conferences, AAC-14 vs SunBelt-14
For the six BCS computers (the determinant of the CFP performance share money) really quickly shuffling rows in my spreadsheet (obviously no JMU included)...

The 2021 average rankings of the future AAC vs the future Sun Belt:
Future AAC - 83.87
Future Sun Belt - 86.10

The future AAC is ahead of the future Sun Belt today.
Then, as we've discussed, when Cincinnati, Houston, UCF depart the top of the remainers (SMU, Memphis, ECU, Navy, USF) will move up somewhat. Barring some scenario where the top remainers AND the top incoming teams all simultaneously poop the bed out-of-conference the top of the AAC will all move up -- almost certainly not to #6 like Cincinnati is now, but the top will move up.

I'm not worried about the AAC-14 staying ahead of the SunBelt-14. At. All.

Enjoy your bus league, though.

Too long. Did not read.

That, along with the tread itself, tells all. I see why you are all so nervous. You are truly Cusa now. Good luck with the garbage conference youre left with here.

(01-15-2022 06:03 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(01-15-2022 12:25 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(01-13-2022 04:54 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Unfortunately, it appears not, for the allocation of "performance shares".

Anderson & Hester updated today.

Average ranking across the 6 former BCS computers -- A&H, Billingsley, Colley, Massey, Sagarin, and Wolfe has the mwc at 67.69444 and the AAC at 67.98485

A difference of .2904 in average ranking will mean a shortfall of six figures in dollars American for each AAC team. We'll still make a lot more in CFP revenue and a lot more per school thanks to the CFP appearance, marking six of eight seasons that the AAC has gotten the NY6 bid.

If Navy had beaten Air Force...
If the Hawaii Bowl had been played and resulted in a Memphis win...

At the moment Massey Composite has 64 ranking systems compiled, so still a little early to get excited about a 0.01 lead there.

A larger concern is that the loss of UC, UH, & UCF could enable the MWC to move ahead of the AAC in 2023-24.

However, AAC football might be able to bounce back in stature due to:

1. The addition of UTSA, UAB, and N. TX, which seem to be on the upswing.

2. The fact that some AAC remainers could rise up in stature and recruiting now that they won't be losing as many games to UC, UH, & UCF.

3. Programs such as Memphis, SMU, and Navy might well be able to "step into" UC, UH, & UCF's "shoes" becoming upper-echelon AAC programs, and could make their way back into the top 25 within 2-3 years.

.

Regarding men's basketball, the AAC has fortunately moved ahead of the MWC in most of the rankings systems, https://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

As with football, the conference may fall behind the MWC when UH, UC, & UCF join the Big 12, although

1. The addition of (#40, NET) UAB, and (#60) North Texas should help to some extent

2. Some of the AAC remainers (e.g., Memphis, Wichita State, SMU) could rise in stature, with improving conference records, since that they won't have to contend with UC, UH, & UCF.

3. The AAC might thus develop a new "upper-tier" of NCAA-quality programs.

Some of these changes (e.g., in conference win pct) could take place almost immediately.

For example, Memphis is predicted (by barttorvik.com) to go 13-5 in the AAC, with 4 of those losses being to UCF, UH, & UC. With those 3 gone, Memphis could go 17-1 in conference play, and would have 23 wins heading into the conference tournament.

Similarly, SMU is predicted to go 14-4 in the AAC, but could go 17-1 without UH, UC, & UCF in the conference. With 9 OOC wins, SMU could end up with a record of 26-5 heading into the AAC tourney.

WSU has a 9-3 OOC record, and is predicted to go 11-7 in conference games, but could go 15-4 without UH, UCF, & UC to contend with.

That would leave Wichita State with a 24-7 record, heading into the AAC tourney.

The departure of UH, UC, and UCF could thus make the AAC - - which currently appears to be a 1 or 2 NCAA bid conference - - into a 3 bid conference.

.

Losing UC, UH, & UCF and adding Rice, Charlotte, & FAU could cause the American to fall behind the MWC for a few years in the conference rankings, from top to bottom, but the conference should still have some competitive upper-echelon teams and could regain the lead in a few years.

A lot may depend on which and how many AAC and MWC teams the Big 12 poaches in the Round Two expansion that many expect.

For example, if they were to take Memphis & SMU, that could hit the AAC pretty hard, but that could be offset if they were to take Boise St. & SDSU, as well. If they were to take USF, to give UCF a travel partner, that would boost the AAC's overall rankings.
.

One thing to note -- the mwc performance this year is an outlier for them. And the Sun Belt has regressed to the mean after 2020's extreme outlier performance.

I don't have the six BCS computers for year-on-year comparisons, but I do have Massey Composite year-end conference rankings.
This year's Massey Composite isn't done YET -- note in my OP, AAC was up 0.01 with 66 rankings compiled but at the moment with 69 rankings compiled mwc is up 0.01 (and the PAC12 remains in reach only up 0.63/0.64), but for a quick look:

mwc 2014-2021
2014 76.73
2015 86.79
2016 78.46
2017 83.81
2018 77.32
2019 74.57
2020 76.31
7 year average - 79.12875
2021 68.85

AAC 2014-2021
2014 83.93
2015 68.95
2016 68.68
2017 66.69
2018 79.8
2019 60.28
2020 68.98
7 year average - 71.17
2021 68.86

So, the two neck-and-neck finishes this year, one of those is an outlier and one is a standard year.

What about after the moves?
It is more complex than just pulling this year's numbers for all fourteen future AAC teams. As you say, when three of our top four move out, there are a lot fewer Ls that they gave the rest of us.
But if I DID just pull those fourteen teams this year, with the eight remainers all still having the dampening of this year's top...the fourteen average within a handful of spots of the mwc 7 year average.

Lots to happen between now and then. Our new-look AAC will no longer be clearly ahead of the mwc et al, but this conference will be in the fight for the NY6 / 6+6 / 5+1+6 spot as well as for the #1 cash haul in CFP performance share money.

I'll let others debate basketball -- the Patriot League will still be a one-bid league in both MBB and WBB.

About the bolded, I agree about the Sun Belt, but not the MW. The MW has now beaten the AAC three times in the official CFP conference standings in the eight years of the CFP, with two of those times coming in the past four years.

One time, like the Sun Belt last year, can be written off as an outlier. But when outliers occur 38% of the time, then we're talking about more than an outlier here, more like an actual tendency.

The really disturbing thing is that these results have occurred while the AAC has had flag-bearers UCF and Cincy in the fold. Without them, things are likely to be even more touch-and-go with the MW for the top spot going forward.

(01-17-2022 03:43 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(01-15-2022 06:03 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(01-15-2022 12:25 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(01-13-2022 04:54 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Unfortunately, it appears not, for the allocation of "performance shares".

Anderson & Hester updated today.

Average ranking across the 6 former BCS computers -- A&H, Billingsley, Colley, Massey, Sagarin, and Wolfe has the mwc at 67.69444 and the AAC at 67.98485

A difference of .2904 in average ranking will mean a shortfall of six figures in dollars American for each AAC team. We'll still make a lot more in CFP revenue and a lot more per school thanks to the CFP appearance, marking six of eight seasons that the AAC has gotten the NY6 bid.

If Navy had beaten Air Force...
If the Hawaii Bowl had been played and resulted in a Memphis win...

At the moment Massey Composite has 64 ranking systems compiled, so still a little early to get excited about a 0.01 lead there.

A larger concern is that the loss of UC, UH, & UCF could enable the MWC to move ahead of the AAC in 2023-24.

However, AAC football might be able to bounce back in stature due to:

1. The addition of UTSA, UAB, and N. TX, which seem to be on the upswing.

2. The fact that some AAC remainers could rise up in stature and recruiting now that they won't be losing as many games to UC, UH, & UCF.

3. Programs such as Memphis, SMU, and Navy might well be able to "step into" UC, UH, & UCF's "shoes" becoming upper-echelon AAC programs, and could make their way back into the top 25 within 2-3 years.

.

Regarding men's basketball, the AAC has fortunately moved ahead of the MWC in most of the rankings systems, https://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

As with football, the conference may fall behind the MWC when UH, UC, & UCF join the Big 12, although

1. The addition of (#40, NET) UAB, and (#60) North Texas should help to some extent

2. Some of the AAC remainers (e.g., Memphis, Wichita State, SMU) could rise in stature, with improving conference records, since that they won't have to contend with UC, UH, & UCF.

3. The AAC might thus develop a new "upper-tier" of NCAA-quality programs.

Some of these changes (e.g., in conference win pct) could take place almost immediately.

For example, Memphis is predicted (by barttorvik.com) to go 13-5 in the AAC, with 4 of those losses being to UCF, UH, & UC. With those 3 gone, Memphis could go 17-1 in conference play, and would have 23 wins heading into the conference tournament.

Similarly, SMU is predicted to go 14-4 in the AAC, but could go 17-1 without UH, UC, & UCF in the conference. With 9 OOC wins, SMU could end up with a record of 26-5 heading into the AAC tourney.

WSU has a 9-3 OOC record, and is predicted to go 11-7 in conference games, but could go 15-4 without UH, UCF, & UC to contend with.

That would leave Wichita State with a 24-7 record, heading into the AAC tourney.

The departure of UH, UC, and UCF could thus make the AAC - - which currently appears to be a 1 or 2 NCAA bid conference - - into a 3 bid conference.

.

Losing UC, UH, & UCF and adding Rice, Charlotte, & FAU could cause the American to fall behind the MWC for a few years in the conference rankings, from top to bottom, but the conference should still have some competitive upper-echelon teams and could regain the lead in a few years.

A lot may depend on which and how many AAC and MWC teams the Big 12 poaches in the Round Two expansion that many expect.

For example, if they were to take Memphis & SMU, that could hit the AAC pretty hard, but that could be offset if they were to take Boise St. & SDSU, as well. If they were to take USF, to give UCF a travel partner, that would boost the AAC's overall rankings.
.

One thing to note -- the mwc performance this year is an outlier for them. And the Sun Belt has regressed to the mean after 2020's extreme outlier performance.

I don't have the six BCS computers for year-on-year comparisons, but I do have Massey Composite year-end conference rankings.
This year's Massey Composite isn't done YET -- note in my OP, AAC was up 0.01 with 66 rankings compiled but at the moment with 69 rankings compiled mwc is up 0.01 (and the PAC12 remains in reach only up 0.63/0.64), but for a quick look:

mwc 2014-2021
2014 76.73
2015 86.79
2016 78.46
2017 83.81
2018 77.32
2019 74.57
2020 76.31
7 year average - 79.12875
2021 68.85

AAC 2014-2021
2014 83.93
2015 68.95
2016 68.68
2017 66.69
2018 79.8
2019 60.28
2020 68.98
7 year average - 71.17
2021 68.86

So, the two neck-and-neck finishes this year, one of those is an outlier and one is a standard year.

What about after the moves?
It is more complex than just pulling this year's numbers for all fourteen future AAC teams. As you say, when three of our top four move out, there are a lot fewer Ls that they gave the rest of us.
But if I DID just pull those fourteen teams this year, with the eight remainers all still having the dampening of this year's top...the fourteen average within a handful of spots of the mwc 7 year average.

Lots to happen between now and then. Our new-look AAC will no longer be clearly ahead of the mwc et al, but this conference will be in the fight for the NY6 / 6+6 / 5+1+6 spot as well as for the #1 cash haul in CFP performance share money.

I'll let others debate basketball -- the Patriot League will still be a one-bid league in both MBB and WBB.

About the bolded, I agree about the Sun Belt, but not the MW. The MW has now beaten the AAC three times in the official CFP conference standings in the eight years of the CFP, with two of those times coming in the past four years.

One time, like the Sun Belt last year, can be written off as an outlier. But when outliers occur 38% of the time, then we're talking about more than an outlier here, more like an actual tendency.

The really disturbing thing is that these results have occurred while the AAC has had flag-bearers UCF and Cincy in the fold. Without them, things are likely to be even more touch-and-go with the MW for the top spot going forward.

We will find out in 2023 only things 5hat matter is having our champion being th3 top one

(01-17-2022 03:43 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(01-15-2022 06:03 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(01-15-2022 12:25 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(01-13-2022 04:54 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Unfortunately, it appears not, for the allocation of "performance shares".

Anderson & Hester updated today.

Average ranking across the 6 former BCS computers -- A&H, Billingsley, Colley, Massey, Sagarin, and Wolfe has the mwc at 67.69444 and the AAC at 67.98485

A difference of .2904 in average ranking will mean a shortfall of six figures in dollars American for each AAC team. We'll still make a lot more in CFP revenue and a lot more per school thanks to the CFP appearance, marking six of eight seasons that the AAC has gotten the NY6 bid.

If Navy had beaten Air Force...
If the Hawaii Bowl had been played and resulted in a Memphis win...

At the moment Massey Composite has 64 ranking systems compiled, so still a little early to get excited about a 0.01 lead there.

A larger concern is that the loss of UC, UH, & UCF could enable the MWC to move ahead of the AAC in 2023-24.

However, AAC football might be able to bounce back in stature due to:

1. The addition of UTSA, UAB, and N. TX, which seem to be on the upswing.

2. The fact that some AAC remainers could rise up in stature and recruiting now that they won't be losing as many games to UC, UH, & UCF.

3. Programs such as Memphis, SMU, and Navy might well be able to "step into" UC, UH, & UCF's "shoes" becoming upper-echelon AAC programs, and could make their way back into the top 25 within 2-3 years.

.

Regarding men's basketball, the AAC has fortunately moved ahead of the MWC in most of the rankings systems, https://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

As with football, the conference may fall behind the MWC when UH, UC, & UCF join the Big 12, although

1. The addition of (#40, NET) UAB, and (#60) North Texas should help to some extent

2. Some of the AAC remainers (e.g., Memphis, Wichita State, SMU) could rise in stature, with improving conference records, since that they won't have to contend with UC, UH, & UCF.

3. The AAC might thus develop a new "upper-tier" of NCAA-quality programs.

Some of these changes (e.g., in conference win pct) could take place almost immediately.

For example, Memphis is predicted (by barttorvik.com) to go 13-5 in the AAC, with 4 of those losses being to UCF, UH, & UC. With those 3 gone, Memphis could go 17-1 in conference play, and would have 23 wins heading into the conference tournament.

Similarly, SMU is predicted to go 14-4 in the AAC, but could go 17-1 without UH, UC, & UCF in the conference. With 9 OOC wins, SMU could end up with a record of 26-5 heading into the AAC tourney.

WSU has a 9-3 OOC record, and is predicted to go 11-7 in conference games, but could go 15-4 without UH, UCF, & UC to contend with.

That would leave Wichita State with a 24-7 record, heading into the AAC tourney.

The departure of UH, UC, and UCF could thus make the AAC - - which currently appears to be a 1 or 2 NCAA bid conference - - into a 3 bid conference.

.

Losing UC, UH, & UCF and adding Rice, Charlotte, & FAU could cause the American to fall behind the MWC for a few years in the conference rankings, from top to bottom, but the conference should still have some competitive upper-echelon teams and could regain the lead in a few years.

A lot may depend on which and how many AAC and MWC teams the Big 12 poaches in the Round Two expansion that many expect.

For example, if they were to take Memphis & SMU, that could hit the AAC pretty hard, but that could be offset if they were to take Boise St. & SDSU, as well. If they were to take USF, to give UCF a travel partner, that would boost the AAC's overall rankings.
.

One thing to note -- the mwc performance this year is an outlier for them. And the Sun Belt has regressed to the mean after 2020's extreme outlier performance.

I don't have the six BCS computers for year-on-year comparisons, but I do have Massey Composite year-end conference rankings.
This year's Massey Composite isn't done YET -- note in my OP, AAC was up 0.01 with 66 rankings compiled but at the moment with 69 rankings compiled mwc is up 0.01 (and the PAC12 remains in reach only up 0.63/0.64), but for a quick look:

mwc 2014-2021
2014 76.73
2015 86.79
2016 78.46
2017 83.81
2018 77.32
2019 74.57
2020 76.31
7 year average - 79.12875
2021 68.85

AAC 2014-2021
2014 83.93
2015 68.95
2016 68.68
2017 66.69
2018 79.8
2019 60.28
2020 68.98
7 year average - 71.17
2021 68.86

So, the two neck-and-neck finishes this year, one of those is an outlier and one is a standard year.

What about after the moves?
It is more complex than just pulling this year's numbers for all fourteen future AAC teams. As you say, when three of our top four move out, there are a lot fewer Ls that they gave the rest of us.
But if I DID just pull those fourteen teams this year, with the eight remainers all still having the dampening of this year's top...the fourteen average within a handful of spots of the mwc 7 year average.

Lots to happen between now and then. Our new-look AAC will no longer be clearly ahead of the mwc et al, but this conference will be in the fight for the NY6 / 6+6 / 5+1+6 spot as well as for the #1 cash haul in CFP performance share money.

I'll let others debate basketball -- the Patriot League will still be a one-bid league in both MBB and WBB.

About the bolded, I agree about the Sun Belt, but not the MW. The MW has now beaten the AAC three times in the official CFP conference standings in the eight years of the CFP, with two of those times coming in the past four years.

One time, like the Sun Belt last year, can be written off as an outlier. But when outliers occur 38% of the time, then we're talking about more than an outlier here, more like an actual tendency.

The really disturbing thing is that these results have occurred while the AAC has had flag-bearers UCF and Cincy in the fold. Without them, things are likely to be even more touch-and-go with the MW for the top spot going forward.

Seriously?

It's an outlier because it is their BEST EVER number, by a long shot. By a very long shot. It is 2.3 standard deviations off the mean. That means it is at the outside edge of "normal distribution" By definition that's an outlier.

mwc 2014-2021
2014 76.73
2015 86.79
2016 78.46
2017 83.81
2018 77.32
2019 74.57
2020 76.31
7 year average - 79.12875
2021 68.85

It's better than the second best by more than one standard deviation. It's an outlier.

Meanwhile, the AAC's performance being 0.01 worse than the mwc's statistical outlier....is right near the AAC's 7-year mean. The AAC's 2021 performance is 0.09 off the median of the AAC's seven year performance.
Best ever year for the mwc.
Middle of the pack year for the AAC.

By contrast, the AAC's #5 year? 1.3x sigma off the 7-year mean.
The AAC finishing #5 was less of a statistical outlier than the mwc's performance this year.

And looking at the Sun Belt and the response to Reggie Favre, and anyone who thought that the Sun Belt looking good in 2020 was a "trajectory" that was also a couple standard deviations off the mean.

It's statistics.

We also had, what three cancelations...id consider stats skewed.

(01-17-2022 04:55 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(01-17-2022 03:43 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(01-15-2022 06:03 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(01-15-2022 12:25 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(01-13-2022 04:54 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Unfortunately, it appears not, for the allocation of "performance shares".

Anderson & Hester updated today.

Average ranking across the 6 former BCS computers -- A&H, Billingsley, Colley, Massey, Sagarin, and Wolfe has the mwc at 67.69444 and the AAC at 67.98485

A difference of .2904 in average ranking will mean a shortfall of six figures in dollars American for each AAC team. We'll still make a lot more in CFP revenue and a lot more per school thanks to the CFP appearance, marking six of eight seasons that the AAC has gotten the NY6 bid.

If Navy had beaten Air Force...
If the Hawaii Bowl had been played and resulted in a Memphis win...

At the moment Massey Composite has 64 ranking systems compiled, so still a little early to get excited about a 0.01 lead there.

A larger concern is that the loss of UC, UH, & UCF could enable the MWC to move ahead of the AAC in 2023-24.

However, AAC football might be able to bounce back in stature due to:

1. The addition of UTSA, UAB, and N. TX, which seem to be on the upswing.

2. The fact that some AAC remainers could rise up in stature and recruiting now that they won't be losing as many games to UC, UH, & UCF.

3. Programs such as Memphis, SMU, and Navy might well be able to "step into" UC, UH, & UCF's "shoes" becoming upper-echelon AAC programs, and could make their way back into the top 25 within 2-3 years.

.

Regarding men's basketball, the AAC has fortunately moved ahead of the MWC in most of the rankings systems, https://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

As with football, the conference may fall behind the MWC when UH, UC, & UCF join the Big 12, although

1. The addition of (#40, NET) UAB, and (#60) North Texas should help to some extent

2. Some of the AAC remainers (e.g., Memphis, Wichita State, SMU) could rise in stature, with improving conference records, since that they won't have to contend with UC, UH, & UCF.

3. The AAC might thus develop a new "upper-tier" of NCAA-quality programs.

Some of these changes (e.g., in conference win pct) could take place almost immediately.

For example, Memphis is predicted (by barttorvik.com) to go 13-5 in the AAC, with 4 of those losses being to UCF, UH, & UC. With those 3 gone, Memphis could go 17-1 in conference play, and would have 23 wins heading into the conference tournament.

Similarly, SMU is predicted to go 14-4 in the AAC, but could go 17-1 without UH, UC, & UCF in the conference. With 9 OOC wins, SMU could end up with a record of 26-5 heading into the AAC tourney.

WSU has a 9-3 OOC record, and is predicted to go 11-7 in conference games, but could go 15-4 without UH, UCF, & UC to contend with.

That would leave Wichita State with a 24-7 record, heading into the AAC tourney.

The departure of UH, UC, and UCF could thus make the AAC - - which currently appears to be a 1 or 2 NCAA bid conference - - into a 3 bid conference.

.

Losing UC, UH, & UCF and adding Rice, Charlotte, & FAU could cause the American to fall behind the MWC for a few years in the conference rankings, from top to bottom, but the conference should still have some competitive upper-echelon teams and could regain the lead in a few years.

A lot may depend on which and how many AAC and MWC teams the Big 12 poaches in the Round Two expansion that many expect.

For example, if they were to take Memphis & SMU, that could hit the AAC pretty hard, but that could be offset if they were to take Boise St. & SDSU, as well. If they were to take USF, to give UCF a travel partner, that would boost the AAC's overall rankings.
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One thing to note -- the mwc performance this year is an outlier for them. And the Sun Belt has regressed to the mean after 2020's extreme outlier performance.

I don't have the six BCS computers for year-on-year comparisons, but I do have Massey Composite year-end conference rankings.
This year's Massey Composite isn't done YET -- note in my OP, AAC was up 0.01 with 66 rankings compiled but at the moment with 69 rankings compiled mwc is up 0.01 (and the PAC12 remains in reach only up 0.63/0.64), but for a quick look:

mwc 2014-2021
2014 76.73
2015 86.79
2016 78.46
2017 83.81
2018 77.32
2019 74.57
2020 76.31
7 year average - 79.12875
2021 68.85

AAC 2014-2021
2014 83.93
2015 68.95
2016 68.68
2017 66.69
2018 79.8
2019 60.28
2020 68.98
7 year average - 71.17
2021 68.86

So, the two neck-and-neck finishes this year, one of those is an outlier and one is a standard year.

What about after the moves?
It is more complex than just pulling this year's numbers for all fourteen future AAC teams. As you say, when three of our top four move out, there are a lot fewer Ls that they gave the rest of us.
But if I DID just pull those fourteen teams this year, with the eight remainers all still having the dampening of this year's top...the fourteen average within a handful of spots of the mwc 7 year average.

Lots to happen between now and then. Our new-look AAC will no longer be clearly ahead of the mwc et al, but this conference will be in the fight for the NY6 / 6+6 / 5+1+6 spot as well as for the #1 cash haul in CFP performance share money.

I'll let others debate basketball -- the Patriot League will still be a one-bid league in both MBB and WBB.

About the bolded, I agree about the Sun Belt, but not the MW. The MW has now beaten the AAC three times in the official CFP conference standings in the eight years of the CFP, with two of those times coming in the past four years.

One time, like the Sun Belt last year, can be written off as an outlier. But when outliers occur 38% of the time, then we're talking about more than an outlier here, more like an actual tendency.

The really disturbing thing is that these results have occurred while the AAC has had flag-bearers UCF and Cincy in the fold. Without them, things are likely to be even more touch-and-go with the MW for the top spot going forward.

Seriously?

It's an outlier because it is their BEST EVER number, by a long shot. By a very long shot. It is 2.3 standard deviations off the mean. That means it is at the outside edge of "normal distribution" By definition that's an outlier.

mwc 2014-2021
2014 76.73
2015 86.79
2016 78.46
2017 83.81
2018 77.32
2019 74.57
2020 76.31
7 year average - 79.12875
2021 68.85

It's better than the second best by more than one standard deviation. It's an outlier.

Meanwhile, the AAC's performance being 0.01 worse than the mwc's statistical outlier....is right near the AAC's 7-year mean. The AAC's 2021 performance is 0.09 off the median of the AAC's seven year performance.
Best ever year for the mwc.
Middle of the pack year for the AAC.

By contrast, the AAC's #5 year? 1.3x sigma off the 7-year mean.
The AAC finishing #5 was less of a statistical outlier than the mwc's performance this year.

And looking at the Sun Belt and the response to Reggie Favre, and anyone who thought that the Sun Belt looking good in 2020 was a "trajectory" that was also a couple standard deviations off the mean.

It's statistics.

Don't throw facts at Quo. His head will explode.