(11-20-2019 12:52 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote: The committee is going to reward a 12-1 CCG winner from a power conference over Alabama. Alabama is in this placeholder position at No.5. Without a game that CCG weekend, they need upsets. They need chaos.
Yes, all signs point to this. Alabama needs chaos to make the playoffs.
Specifically, they need to be compared to teams with two losses. That's because the only two times that a non-champ has gotten in to the playoffs, it was because they were being compared to champs with more losses - Ohio State got in over champ Penn State in 2016 because PSU had two losses, and Alabama themselves got in over champ Ohio State in 2017 because OSU had two losses.
So yes, if it boils down to Alabama vs a 1-loss Big 12 champ Oklahoma or a 1-loss PAC champ Oregon, Alabama is out.
Now, *just because they are Alabama* meaning they have built up a GREAT deal of credibility with the CFP based on past success, and because we all know they have talent to burn like they always do, if the 1-loss champs are a Baylor or a Minnesota or a Utah, they just MIGHT, just might, get the nod over those kinds of teams.
But ... still, probably not. They need chaos. For another example, they would get in over even LSU, if LSU were to get upset by Texas AM at the end of the season and then also lose the SEC title game to Georgia. Not likely, but could happen. Two losses.