(11-20-2019 11:54 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 11:51 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 11:41 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 11:02 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 10:48 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  No, the path to getting two SEC teams into the playoff is Georgia beating LSU in the SEC Championship game. If LSU beats Georgia and Oregon is 12-1, then Oregon is in.

Depends on if Alabama beats Auburn going away..... Wouldn't say that it's a guarantee at all....

No, Alabama needs a lot of help to get in. The Oregon-Utah winner will jump them. Oklahoma could jump them at 12-1. Beating Auburn is not enough. The schedule, their suspect defense and the Tua injury is going to keep them out unless there are a lot of upsets in the last three weeks. A 12-1 team in a power conference that wins its CCG has the inside track.

Agreed. If Oklahoma and/or Oregon/Utah are sitting there at 12-1, Conference champs, it would probably blow up the CFP if both are excluded in favor of Alabama

I see absolutely no chance for Oklahoma where they are. Oregon maybe, but they haven't passed Alabama yet....

And yeah, the even more possible thing is Georgia beating LSU. LSU is getting in 100% over Oregon due to h2h.

There is no H2H between LSU and Oregon.

(11-20-2019 12:41 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 11:54 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 11:51 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 11:41 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 11:02 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Depends on if Alabama beats Auburn going away..... Wouldn't say that it's a guarantee at all....

No, Alabama needs a lot of help to get in. The Oregon-Utah winner will jump them. Oklahoma could jump them at 12-1. Beating Auburn is not enough. The schedule, their suspect defense and the Tua injury is going to keep them out unless there are a lot of upsets in the last three weeks. A 12-1 team in a power conference that wins its CCG has the inside track.

Agreed. If Oklahoma and/or Oregon/Utah are sitting there at 12-1, Conference champs, it would probably blow up the CFP if both are excluded in favor of Alabama

I see absolutely no chance for Oklahoma where they are. Oregon maybe, but they haven't passed Alabama yet....

And yeah, the even more possible thing is Georgia beating LSU. LSU is getting in 100% over Oregon due to h2h.

There is no H2H between LSU and Oregon.

true. BUT there is vs Auburn. LSU beats Auburn. Oregon loses to Auburn.... Not H2H, but darn close.

(11-20-2019 12:43 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 12:41 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 11:54 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 11:51 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 11:41 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  No, Alabama needs a lot of help to get in. The Oregon-Utah winner will jump them. Oklahoma could jump them at 12-1. Beating Auburn is not enough. The schedule, their suspect defense and the Tua injury is going to keep them out unless there are a lot of upsets in the last three weeks. A 12-1 team in a power conference that wins its CCG has the inside track.

Agreed. If Oklahoma and/or Oregon/Utah are sitting there at 12-1, Conference champs, it would probably blow up the CFP if both are excluded in favor of Alabama

I see absolutely no chance for Oklahoma where they are. Oregon maybe, but they haven't passed Alabama yet....

And yeah, the even more possible thing is Georgia beating LSU. LSU is getting in 100% over Oregon due to h2h.

There is no H2H between LSU and Oregon.

true. BUT there is vs Auburn. LSU beats Auburn. Oregon loses to Auburn.... Not H2H, but darn close.

1st week of the season, last second play. It will be a factor, but not as much as you are making it out to be.

(11-20-2019 08:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Man, the CFP does NOT like Notre Dame. The Irish knock #23 Navy out with a dominant win and .... they stay at #16, even behind 3-loss Auburn.

I guess the CFP wasn't impressed with a win over Navy, no matter how much the AAC fanatics claim it is a good win.

(11-20-2019 12:46 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 12:43 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 12:41 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 11:54 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 11:51 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  Agreed. If Oklahoma and/or Oregon/Utah are sitting there at 12-1, Conference champs, it would probably blow up the CFP if both are excluded in favor of Alabama

I see absolutely no chance for Oklahoma where they are. Oregon maybe, but they haven't passed Alabama yet....

And yeah, the even more possible thing is Georgia beating LSU. LSU is getting in 100% over Oregon due to h2h.

There is no H2H between LSU and Oregon.

true. BUT there is vs Auburn. LSU beats Auburn. Oregon loses to Auburn.... Not H2H, but darn close.

1st week of the season, last second play. It will be a factor, but not as much as you are making it out to be.

LSU will have 2 top 10 wins, plus Auburn(who if they beat Alabama gets into top 10 probably), plus Texas(who probably wins out gets back into top 25)....

Oregon on the other hand? 1 top ten win, and maybe USC if USC can win on Saturday....

(11-20-2019 12:48 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 08:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Man, the CFP does NOT like Notre Dame. The Irish knock #23 Navy out with a dominant win and .... they stay at #16, even behind 3-loss Auburn.

I guess the CFP wasn't impressed with a win over Navy, no matter how much the AAC fanatics claim it is a good win.

or maybe no one right around them lost....

Alabama is No. 5, but there is no reason for the committee to move them up based on a win over Auburn. Oregon, for example, will have a 12-1 record, a conference championship and 12 consecutive wins. They will jump Alabama. Utah and OU would as well.

The committee is going to reward a 12-1 CCG winner from a power conference over Alabama. Alabama is in this placeholder position at No.5. Without a game that CCG weekend, they need upsets. They need chaos. Forget the talent on Alabama. Focus on their schedule, which was not that strong. Look at their defense, which has not been that good. They have played well offensively, but just lost their star quarterback and leader for the season, which will probably not be a positive development for the offense.

As for Georgia, that 20-17 loss at home to a 4-7 South Carolina team is hard to explain. I don’t see them beating LSU, but if they do, then the SEC will likely get two teams in.

(11-20-2019 12:48 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 08:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Man, the CFP does NOT like Notre Dame. The Irish knock #23 Navy out with a dominant win and .... they stay at #16, even behind 3-loss Auburn.

I guess the CFP wasn't impressed with a win over Navy, no matter how much the AAC fanatics claim it is a good win.

Or anti AAC fanatics forgetting to mention NDs best win.

(11-20-2019 12:57 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 12:48 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 08:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Man, the CFP does NOT like Notre Dame. The Irish knock #23 Navy out with a dominant win and .... they stay at #16, even behind 3-loss Auburn.

I guess the CFP wasn't impressed with a win over Navy, no matter how much the AAC fanatics claim it is a good win.

Or anti AAC fanatics forgetting to mention NDs best win.

USC is the best win

(11-20-2019 01:02 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 12:57 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 12:48 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 08:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Man, the CFP does NOT like Notre Dame. The Irish knock #23 Navy out with a dominant win and .... they stay at #16, even behind 3-loss Auburn.

I guess the CFP wasn't impressed with a win over Navy, no matter how much the AAC fanatics claim it is a good win.

Or anti AAC fanatics forgetting to mention NDs best win.

USC is the best win

USC has to suck because they lost to BYU, who lost to USF, who got destroyed by Navy. Ignore that USC lost to ND by 3, and Navy lost by 32, Navy is clearly the better team.

(11-20-2019 01:02 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 12:57 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 12:48 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 08:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Man, the CFP does NOT like Notre Dame. The Irish knock #23 Navy out with a dominant win and .... they stay at #16, even behind 3-loss Auburn.

I guess the CFP wasn't impressed with a win over Navy, no matter how much the AAC fanatics claim it is a good win.

Or anti AAC fanatics forgetting to mention NDs best win.

USC is the best win

It is now. Navy has dropped below USC in the rankings...after the loss.

(11-20-2019 12:52 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  The committee is going to reward a 12-1 CCG winner from a power conference over Alabama. Alabama is in this placeholder position at No.5. Without a game that CCG weekend, they need upsets. They need chaos.

Yes, all signs point to this. Alabama needs chaos to make the playoffs.

Specifically, they need to be compared to teams with two losses. That's because the only two times that a non-champ has gotten in to the playoffs, it was because they were being compared to champs with more losses - Ohio State got in over champ Penn State in 2016 because PSU had two losses, and Alabama themselves got in over champ Ohio State in 2017 because OSU had two losses.

So yes, if it boils down to Alabama vs a 1-loss Big 12 champ Oklahoma or a 1-loss PAC champ Oregon, Alabama is out.

Now, *just because they are Alabama* meaning they have built up a GREAT deal of credibility with the CFP based on past success, and because we all know they have talent to burn like they always do, if the 1-loss champs are a Baylor or a Minnesota or a Utah, they just MIGHT, just might, get the nod over those kinds of teams.

But ... still, probably not. They need chaos. For another example, they would get in over even LSU, if LSU were to get upset by Texas AM at the end of the season and then also lose the SEC title game to Georgia. Not likely, but could happen. Two losses.

(11-20-2019 01:17 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 01:02 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 12:57 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 12:48 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 08:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Man, the CFP does NOT like Notre Dame. The Irish knock #23 Navy out with a dominant win and .... they stay at #16, even behind 3-loss Auburn.

I guess the CFP wasn't impressed with a win over Navy, no matter how much the AAC fanatics claim it is a good win.

Or anti AAC fanatics forgetting to mention NDs best win.

USC is the best win

USC has to suck because they lost to BYU, who lost to USF, who got destroyed by Navy. Ignore that USC lost to ND by 3, and Navy lost by 32, Navy is clearly the better team.

That's some convenient ignoring. Suppose that in addition to the games you mention, Navy had played USC and lost. Where do the teams stand relative to one another then?

Aresco whined about the CFP today. Basically, he thinks Memphis and Cincy should be way ahead of Boise. And SMU should be ahead of App State and Boise too!

Sadly, the Massey computers say the CFP is far more correct.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...f-rankings

(11-20-2019 01:17 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 01:02 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 12:57 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 12:48 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 08:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Man, the CFP does NOT like Notre Dame. The Irish knock #23 Navy out with a dominant win and .... they stay at #16, even behind 3-loss Auburn.

I guess the CFP wasn't impressed with a win over Navy, no matter how much the AAC fanatics claim it is a good win.

Or anti AAC fanatics forgetting to mention NDs best win.

USC is the best win

USC has to suck because they lost to BYU, who lost to USF, who got destroyed by Navy. Ignore that USC lost to ND by 3, and Navy lost by 32, Navy is clearly the better team.

Checking in 5 hours later and you are still the only making that claim.

(11-20-2019 05:48 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 01:17 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 01:02 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 12:57 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 12:48 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  I guess the CFP wasn't impressed with a win over Navy, no matter how much the AAC fanatics claim it is a good win.

Or anti AAC fanatics forgetting to mention NDs best win.

USC is the best win

USC has to suck because they lost to BYU, who lost to USF, who got destroyed by Navy. Ignore that USC lost to ND by 3, and Navy lost by 32, Navy is clearly the better team.

That's some convenient ignoring. Suppose that in addition to the games you mention, Navy had played USC and lost. Where do the teams stand relative to one another then?

Sorry - I was being a little sarcastic - thought the USC/Navy?ND would have given that away

(11-20-2019 05:59 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Aresco whined about the CFP today. Basically, he thinks Memphis and Cincy should be way ahead of Boise. And SMU should be ahead of App State and Boise too!

Sadly, the Massey computers say the CFP is far more correct.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...f-rankings

If Memphis wins out they are the G5 rep, no doubt about it. Most likely Cincy as well.

But not seeing any reason to claim there is a big separation between those two and Boise.

Massey has them group 17-22, with only Iowa in that range not G5.

There really isn't enough data points to separate them further. All five schools have quality points, and negatives. IMHO, Memphis has the least negative points

(11-20-2019 06:17 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 05:59 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Aresco whined about the CFP today. Basically, he thinks Memphis and Cincy should be way ahead of Boise. And SMU should be ahead of App State and Boise too!

Sadly, the Massey computers say the CFP is far more correct.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...f-rankings

If Memphis wins out they are the G5 rep, no doubt about it. Most likely Cincy as well.

But not seeing any reason to claim there is a big separation between those two and Boise.

Massey has them group 17-22, with only Iowa in that range not G5.

There really isn't enough data points to separate them further. All five schools have quality points, and negatives. IMHO, Memphis has the least negative points

Oh, I don't think there's any doubt that if Memphis or Cincy win out, they will get the NY6 spot - and they should.

But Aresco is just being Aresco - trying to justify his $2m a year salary by blowing some hot air.

(11-20-2019 06:12 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 05:48 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 01:17 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 01:02 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 12:57 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  Or anti AAC fanatics forgetting to mention NDs best win.

USC is the best win

USC has to suck because they lost to BYU, who lost to USF, who got destroyed by Navy. Ignore that USC lost to ND by 3, and Navy lost by 32, Navy is clearly the better team.

That's some convenient ignoring. Suppose that in addition to the games you mention, Navy had played USC and lost. Where do the teams stand relative to one another then?

Sorry - I was being a little sarcastic - thought the USC/Navy?ND would have given that away

Poe's Law strikes again!

ND is appropriately ranked, more or less.

I stated before the season that ND was not a playoff team this year and would end up at 10-2 or 9-3.

No complaining about the ranking of the Irish here.

ND is a good team. Brian Kelly coughed up his annual hairball game against Michigan. So it goes.