slhNavy91
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RE: Las Vegas Review Journal Update on MW TV Negotiations
(08-20-2019 09:15 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote: (08-20-2019 07:09 AM)chess Wrote: (08-16-2019 01:41 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote: This gets interesting, but let me give the bottom line up front: nope.
Ten Boise or BYU late night games, and only one got 1.078 viewers. One out of ten.
Here are BYU's rated home games, all of which are that late-night window (BYUtv game not rated and NIU-BYU on ESPNU at 3:30 pm given an n.a. on sportsmediawatch):
N.Mex State, 17 NOV, ESPN2 10:20pm, 295k viewers
Hawaii, 13 OCT, ESPN2 10:30pm, 646k viewers
Utah St 5 OCT (Friday), ESPN2 9pm, 617k viewers
Cal 8 SEP, ESPN2 10:15pm, 586k viewers
Here are the mwc rated home games in that late-night window. The only other games in the mwc inventory with ratings/viewer data are the ccg and one 269k viewer afternoon ESPNU game; another 10 games on ESPNU and 1 on ESPNEWS across afternoon, evening, and late night windows are listed as "n.a."
USU-Boise 10:45pm, ESPN, 1.078 million
Fres-Boise 10:20pm (Fri), ESPN, 819k
UNLS-SDSU 10:30pm, ESPN2, 415k
Haw-Fres 11pm, ESPN2, 197k
CSU-Boise 9pm (Fri), ESPN2, 420k
Wyo-Fres 10:30pm, ESPNU, 128k
AF -USU 10:20pm, ESPN2, 277k
Wyo-UNM 10pm (wk 0), ESPN2, 464k
There is one AAC game that is a reasonable comp to thosE: Memphis SMU was on a Friday at 9pm on ESPN2, drawing 623k. That's a pretty run of the mill AAC game, behind only three BYU/mwc late night games - only behind one on ESPN2 rather than ESPN.
Otherwise, AAC had all the following games reflecting our sellable inventory greater than the ALL the mwc/BYU late night games:
AAC Champ, 4pm ABC 3.321 million
UCF-USF, 4pm (black Fri) ESPN 1.741 million
Cin-UCF, 8pm ABC 3.124 million
ND Navy 8pm CBS 2.447 million
USF Houston 3:30 ABC 2.035 million (ABC-ESPN2 mirror setup)
UCF-Memphis 3:30 ABC 2.990 million (ABC-ESPN2 mirror setup)
USF-Tulsa 7pm (Fri) ESPN 1.170 million
FAU-UCF 7pm (Fri) ESPN 1.295 million
Arizona-Houston noon ABC 2.539 million (ABC-ESPN2 mirror setup vs other AAC game)
GT-USF noon ABC 2.539 million (ABC-ESPN2 mirror setup vs other AAC game)
Our Thurs/Fri primetime slate gets more viewers and therefore is worth more to ABC/ESPN than all the late night viewers of BYU and the whole mwc combined.
Wow! Tha American has so much potential. When comparing to the MWC, is this representative of just population or emphasis on college sports or advanced cord-cutting?
Who cares how strong the brand name of Boise State is? Georgia State, and the Atlanta market may be more valuable.
Two things:
1) That Ga State poo is some CUSA logic. Yes, the campus sits right in the middle of Atlanta, but most people would walk right by it without noticing, and the games aren't on TV in that market.
2) On its face, the analysis above seems skewed. So we're comparing our primetime slots to the MWC late night slots? If anything, we should be comparing our noon games with their late-night stuff.
My main intention was to show the BYU, Boise, mwc viewership numbers to shoot down a couple of pieces of "conventional wisdom" that are actually wrong.
"BYU would be worth a bajillion dollars to us!" No, look at their viewers - they're worth what ESPN has been paying them. Those viewers are 7.77% of the AAC's, and their reported $4.5M-$6M ESPN contract would be 5.4%-7.2% of AAC's ESPN contract.
"Boise or BYU will automatically get a million viewers late night," was right in this thread. Nope, one out of 10 BYU/Boise games got that. (That was one driver of including the multiple games that weren't apples-to-apples: we get a million routinely, every team in the AAC.)
"Those late-night windows are unique/valuable, and don't compete with the SEC/BIG/ACC, so BYU/mwc gonna get paid tons." Remember, there were mwc honks predicting that the AAC would take a paycut because we didn't have those valuable late-night windows. Meanwhile Aresco kept saying that our ability to deliver numbers on Thursday/Friday was very valuable to Disney. Those past discussions are why I included my final line.
A very big IF, but if ESPN thought that the latenight windows would actually be ADDITIVE to the AAC contract because it is capacity and timeslots we don't have today...then breaking even when bringing on three teams (increase media rights by 3x the eleven member amount plus offset the dilution of CFP money) would require those latenight windows to have twice the viewership/value that they do.
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