(08-22-2019 11:06 AM)NothingButKnight Wrote: (08-22-2019 10:06 AM)YNot Wrote: (08-22-2019 12:35 AM)Fishpro10987 Wrote: (08-21-2019 08:49 PM)Atlanta Wrote: (08-21-2019 06:24 PM)1845 Bear Wrote: I don’t think it’s that cut and dry. The AAC and the top of the MWC should account for 8 of 10 easily though at worst.
And that's the risk to the AAC if they take a couple of MW schools. Then an undefeated WY or Fresno St (for instance) might take the NY6 bowl over a 1-2 loss AAC champ.
Don't think so. The same reasoning that a 2 loss P5 team gets ranked ahead of UCF in CFP polls will apply to a 1 or 2 loss AAC team over the other four conferences. The exception would be an undefeated G3 team with 2 P5 wins or a 1 loss Boise team with 2 P5 wins, and the measure will be how good were those P5 teams that they beat? (and apologies to all AAC fans for using the P5 reference, but you know how the bias works).
One often overlooked benefit to expansion (with the right teams) is that you increase the likelihood that the two division winners both have nice-and-shiny win-loss records and rankings. In a larger conference, the division winners are less likely to have played each other during the conference schedule. So, you get a CCG that is more likely to match two ranked teams with 10+ wins. That CCG becomes more valuable for television and the winner of that CCG is likely to beat out any other G5 champ for the NY6 bid.
There’s some truth here. #14 UCF (11-0) vs #20 Memphis (10-1) was a great moment for the AAC. Although, we did happen to play in the regular season. Had that not happened, it might have been a Top 15 matchup.
That being said, diluting the schedule to stack up gaudy win numbers isn’t satisfying. We’ve done well enough so far. In four years, we’ve had six ranked teams in the AAC champ games. At least one every year, and twice with both teams.
You don't dilute the schedule, you add strong teams that actually enhance the AAC's game inventory. The divisional structure and scheduling allows for the better win-loss records and rankings.
UCF would still have a solid AAC conference schedule. In fact, UCF could have played basically the same 2018 conference schedule - SMU and Navy are the cross-division games, Memphis becomes a divisional game, replace UConn with Tulane.
Meanwhile, Boise State, Houston, BYU and SDSU duke it out in the West division.
The likely result is an AAC conference championship game of #8 UCF (11-0, 8-0) against #18 Boise State (10-2, 7-1). The winner of that game easily grabs the NY6 bid.
Plus, you add bowl eligible teams in Boise State, SDSU, and BYU. The expanded AAC bowl lineup could have looked something like this (using expanded bowl affiliations):
Fiesta Bowl: UCF v. LSU
Military Bowl: Cincinnati v. Virginia Tech
Los Angeles Bowl: Boise State v. Arizona State
Fenway Bowl: Temple v. Duke
Birmingham Bowl: Memphis v. Wake Forest
First Responder Bowl: Houston v. Minnesota
Gasparilla Bowl: South Florida v. Georgia Tech
Armed Forces Bowl: BYU v. Army
Hawaii Bowl: San Diego State v. Hawaii
Cure Bowl: Tulane v. Marshall
That's a solid bowl lineup.