On the face of it, it seems obvious, right? Clemson and FSU both fit quite well within the current SEC footprint, their travel would be similar to what it is in the ACC, etc etc. However, why are they really so anxious to make a move? Because they want to keep winning Championships, and they think that bringing in 20 or $30m less per year in media rights payments than Vanderbilt or Northwestern would make that more difficult. Ok, they're probably not wrong there, but they could make just as much money in the B1G, and the travel wouldn't be a whole lot worse there than it is in the SEC. A&M, OUT, Arkansas, LSU, Missouri...there are a lot of pretty distant SEC schools. So, maybe they would consider the B1G, instead, especially if the SEC drags their feet. Right?

Wrong. If all they really care about is winning (which is overwhelmingly supported by the evidence), then why would they send their beloved football programs to the graveyard of past great programs that PSU and Nebraska (and soon USC) already populate? The only B1G school in 50 years with more than 1/2 a National Title is tOSU. Michigan has that 1/2 a title in 50 years. tOSU has 2 titles in 50 years. The entire rest of the B1G has 0 (!!) titles. IN FIFTY YEARS. I think that Clemson and FSU have a better shot at titles in the next 50 years in the ACC than they would in the B1G, and I'm confident that their leaders agree.

It gets even worse when you really drill down into B1G football Championships. tOSU won a title in '68, and before that? 1960 - Minnesota. That's right, it's been 63 years since a B1G team other than Michigan or tOSU won a National Title. Clemson and FSU have won 3 each over that time period. And what about the SEC? Multiple teams have won titles in the past 25 years: Tennessee, Florida, Auburn, Georgia, LSU, and ofc Alabama.

This situation is unfortunate in some ways for the powers that be at these top ACC programs because Sankey knows this information just as well as they do. Even if the B1G decided to add them (coin toss maybe?), they'd have zero reason to join EVEN IF THAT MEANT STAYING IN THE ACC. So, their one card that they can play to get the SEC off our butts and anxious to close the deal with them in, say, 2024 instead of 2034? It's a 2 of clubs.

Biggest issue would be in the south the BIG isnt considered as good of football as the SEC. Right or wrong, it doesnt matter it is the preception.

(09-29-2023 11:36 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  Biggest issue would be in the south the BIG isnt considered as good of football as the SEC. Right or wrong, it doesnt matter it is the preception.

Right or wrong? The B1G has 2.5 football Championships in 50 years. I'd take Alabama RIGHT NOW heads up against the entire B1G to win the title this year, even after their loss to Texas and terrible showing against USF. I bet a lot of other people would, too. But even if Alabama, or Georgia, or any other SEC doesn't step up this year, does anybody question whether FSU, Texas or (insert name of Pac team here) wouldn't also smoke any B1G team when it really mattered? The best thing the B1G has going for it right now is their 4 new teams starting next year.

The thread title assumes an unproven premise.

Clemson and Florida State intend to compete at the highest levels. This requires getting on the right side of the revenue gap. Either P2 destination can meet the need.

An obvious strong suit for the SEC is travel convenience and regional rivalries. This makes the SEC a preference of many local fans, but in reality not the 'only' choice. There's a 2 in P2.

Network competition (Fox vs Disney) plays a big role in P2 decisions. Much will depend on which network is willing to pay for what. We'll see.

(09-30-2023 01:12 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  The thread title assumes an unproven premise.

Clemson and Florida State intend to compete at the highest levels. This requires getting on the right side of the revenue gap. Either P2 destination can meet the need.

An obvious strong suit for the SEC is travel convenience and regional rivalries. This makes the SEC a preference of many local fans, but in reality not the 'only' choice. There's a 2 in P2.

Network competition (Fox vs Disney) plays a big role in P2 decisions. Much will depend on which network is willing to pay for what. We'll see.

2036 is a long way off. Anything can happen.

I have not given up on the ACC as being the long term home. The addition of the 3 amigos will undoubtedly help recruit out of staters for education and athletic purposes, we have yet to see the windfall of that, I’m hoping this decision is delayed at least until 2030, seriously FSU will be fine until then.

(09-30-2023 12:58 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(09-29-2023 11:36 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  Biggest issue would be in the south the BIG isnt considered as good of football as the SEC. Right or wrong, it doesnt matter it is the preception.

Right or wrong? The B1G has 2.5 football Championships in 50 years. I'd take Alabama RIGHT NOW heads up against the entire B1G to win the title this year, even after their loss to Texas and terrible showing against USF. I bet a lot of other people would, too. But even if Alabama, or Georgia, or any other SEC doesn't step up this year, does anybody question whether FSU, Texas or (insert name of Pac team here) wouldn't also smoke any B1G team when it really mattered? The best thing the B1G has going for it right now is their 4 new teams starting next year.

It's an interesting premise you've got. I think you make a fair point.

Even if you don't consider it from a national title perspective, generally speaking, the Big Ten representative in the CFP gets beat handily. Not always, but generally we're talking about entrants that aren't that competitive once given the opportunity.

I will always remember the two games Bama had against Michigan State during the Saban era. The first was at the end of the 2010 season. Bama had admittedly underachieved and lost 3 games that year. They played Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl and it was a thorough beatdown 49-7. MSU had been a top 10 team going into that game.

The other one I was actually present for, the Cotton Bowl during the 2015 season. 38-0 in the semifinals. It was just never competitive.

Looking at the CFP as a whole:

2014 - Ohio State national championship - best showing to date
2015 - aforementioned Michigan State loss
2016 - Ohio State semifinal loss to Clemson 31-0.
2017 - no entrant
2018 - no entrant
2019 - Ohio State semifinal loss to Clemson 29-23
2020 - Ohio State final loss to Alabama 52-24
2021 - Michigan semifinal loss to Georgia 34-11
2022 - Ohio State and Michigan get in, but neither make the final.

If you go back to the BCS era then you have:

1998 - Tennessee over Florida State - no Big Ten entrant
1999 - Florida State over Virginia Tech - no Big Ten entrant
2000 - Oklahoma over Florida State - no Big Ten entrant
2001 - Miami over Nebraska - 37-14 loss for the current Big Ten program
2002 - Ohio State over Miami - best showing for Big Ten during that era
2003 - LSU over Oklahoma - no Big Ten entrant
2004 - USC over Oklahoma - future Big Ten member wins big
2005 - Texas over USC - classic SEC/Big Ten showdown here...
2006 - Florida over Ohio State - 41-14 loss
2007 - LSU over Ohio State - 38-24 loss
2008 - Florida over Oklahoma - no Big Ten entrant
2009 - Alabama over Texas - no Big Ten entrant
2010 - Auburn over Oregon - close loss for future Big Ten member
2011 - Alabama over LSU - no Big Ten entrant
2012 - Alabama over Notre Dame - no Big Ten entrant
2013 - Florida State over Auburn - no Big Ten entrant

I haven't looked at the old BCS bowl games and the showings might be a little better from that era, but I was trying to include games that included real stakes.

Call me crazy, but FSU and Clemson could also look around in the present and conclude something from this data set:

1 Georgia (55) 1562 4-0 1
2 Michigan (1) 1445 4-0 2
3 Texas (2) 1401 4-0 3
4 Ohio State (1) 1370 4-0 6
5 Florida State (3) 1351 4-0 4
6 Penn State 1244 4-0 7
7 Washington (1) 1228 4-0 8
8 USC 1169 4-0 5
9 Oregon 1076 4-0 10
10 Utah 981 4-0 11

I’d totally be okay with FSU continuing to be a SEC-slayer as a B1G member. And a much better funded one than the current situation. But the SEC seems to be the obvious choice on geography alone. I’m optimistic they’ll be happy where they ultimately land.

I don't disagree w/ your overall premise, Bryanw1995, but PSU's issues were all self inflicted outside of the conference costing them the 1994 national title by forcing them to play in the Rose Bowl. Hanging on to Paterno too long (big drop off around 2000) and the Sandusky scandal cost them about 10 combined years of being remotely competative.

Ohio State came within a missed field goal of playing for the championship last year.

(09-30-2023 07:17 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(09-30-2023 12:58 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(09-29-2023 11:36 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  Biggest issue would be in the south the BIG isnt considered as good of football as the SEC. Right or wrong, it doesnt matter it is the preception.

Right or wrong? The B1G has 2.5 football Championships in 50 years. I'd take Alabama RIGHT NOW heads up against the entire B1G to win the title this year, even after their loss to Texas and terrible showing against USF. I bet a lot of other people would, too. But even if Alabama, or Georgia, or any other SEC doesn't step up this year, does anybody question whether FSU, Texas or (insert name of Pac team here) wouldn't also smoke any B1G team when it really mattered? The best thing the B1G has going for it right now is their 4 new teams starting next year.

It's an interesting premise you've got. I think you make a fair point.

Even if you don't consider it from a national title perspective, generally speaking, the Big Ten representative in the CFP gets beat handily. Not always, but generally we're talking about entrants that aren't that competitive once given the opportunity.

I will always remember the two games Bama had against Michigan State during the Saban era. The first was at the end of the 2010 season. Bama had admittedly underachieved and lost 3 games that year. They played Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl and it was a thorough beatdown 49-7. MSU had been a top 10 team going into that game.

The other one I was actually present for, the Cotton Bowl during the 2015 season. 38-0 in the semifinals. It was just never competitive.

Looking at the CFP as a whole:

2014 - Ohio State national championship - best showing to date
2015 - aforementioned Michigan State loss
2016 - Ohio State semifinal loss to Clemson 31-0.
2017 - no entrant
2018 - no entrant
2019 - Ohio State semifinal loss to Clemson 29-23
2020 - Ohio State final loss to Alabama 52-24
2021 - Michigan semifinal loss to Georgia 34-11
2022 - Ohio State and Michigan get in, but neither make the final.

If you go back to the BCS era then you have:

1998 - Tennessee over Florida State - no Big Ten entrant
1999 - Florida State over Virginia Tech - no Big Ten entrant
2000 - Oklahoma over Florida State - no Big Ten entrant
2001 - Miami over Nebraska - 37-14 loss for the current Big Ten program
2002 - Ohio State over Miami - best showing for Big Ten during that era
2003 - LSU over Oklahoma - no Big Ten entrant
2004 - USC over Oklahoma - future Big Ten member wins big
2005 - Texas over USC - classic SEC/Big Ten showdown here...
2006 - Florida over Ohio State - 41-14 loss
2007 - LSU over Ohio State - 38-24 loss
2008 - Florida over Oklahoma - no Big Ten entrant
2009 - Alabama over Texas - no Big Ten entrant
2010 - Auburn over Oregon - close loss for future Big Ten member
2011 - Alabama over LSU - no Big Ten entrant
2012 - Alabama over Notre Dame - no Big Ten entrant
2013 - Florida State over Auburn - no Big Ten entrant

I haven't looked at the old BCS bowl games and the showings might be a little better from that era, but I was trying to include games that included real stakes.

None of these facts matter, in FSU and Clemsons part of the country the BIG is not thought of to be on the SECs level. I would agree with you both the SEC is better and 99% of the south would too. And 99% of the south would not do any research it their god given right to know southern football is the best.

So if FSU or Clemson go to the BIG they will be considered a stepdown in their own neighborhood.

(09-30-2023 01:12 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  The thread title assumes an unproven premise.

Clemson and Florida State intend to compete at the highest levels. This requires getting on the right side of the revenue gap. Either P2 destination can meet the need.

An obvious strong suit for the SEC is travel convenience and regional rivalries. This makes the SEC a preference of many local fans, but in reality not the 'only' choice. There's a 2 in P2.

Network competition (Fox vs Disney) plays a big role in P2 decisions. Much will depend on which network is willing to pay for what. We'll see.

Does it? Clemson has 2 very recent Titles despite their "revenue gap". FSU looks as good as anybody this year despite this "revenue gap". What's the difference between FSU's $160m revenue last year and A&M's $190m? It's certainly not helping my Aggies win more football games. We've had a lot bigger gap over Clemson than a mere $30m for most of the past decade, which, again, hasn't stopped Clemson from having so much success.

The "revenue gap" complaint is nothing more than a fundraising pitch to boosters and an excuse to push for more and more unequal revenue sharing from the ACC. Your school's actions make it clear that their top priority is winning Titles, as it should be, and your odds of winning titles in the future are higher as the co-top dogs in the ACC than as Ohio States little sister in the B1G.

(09-30-2023 07:33 AM)SeaBlue Wrote:  Call me crazy, but FSU and Clemson could also look around in the present and conclude something from this data set:

1 Georgia (55) 1562 4-0 1
2 Michigan (1) 1445 4-0 2
3 Texas (2) 1401 4-0 3
4 Ohio State (1) 1370 4-0 6
5 Florida State (3) 1351 4-0 4
6 Penn State 1244 4-0 7
7 Washington (1) 1228 4-0 8
8 USC 1169 4-0 5
9 Oregon 1076 4-0 10
10 Utah 981 4-0 11

You should not be so excited to get some real competition into your league. You guys will lose plenty of games to USC, Washington and Oregon in the coming years.

(09-30-2023 07:17 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(09-30-2023 12:58 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(09-29-2023 11:36 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  Biggest issue would be in the south the BIG isnt considered as good of football as the SEC. Right or wrong, it doesnt matter it is the preception.

Right or wrong? The B1G has 2.5 football Championships in 50 years. I'd take Alabama RIGHT NOW heads up against the entire B1G to win the title this year, even after their loss to Texas and terrible showing against USF. I bet a lot of other people would, too. But even if Alabama, or Georgia, or any other SEC doesn't step up this year, does anybody question whether FSU, Texas or (insert name of Pac team here) wouldn't also smoke any B1G team when it really mattered? The best thing the B1G has going for it right now is their 4 new teams starting next year.

It's an interesting premise you've got. I think you make a fair point.

Even if you don't consider it from a national title perspective, generally speaking, the Big Ten representative in the CFP gets beat handily. Not always, but generally we're talking about entrants that aren't that competitive once given the opportunity.

I will always remember the two games Bama had against Michigan State during the Saban era. The first was at the end of the 2010 season. Bama had admittedly underachieved and lost 3 games that year. They played Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl and it was a thorough beatdown 49-7. MSU had been a top 10 team going into that game.

The other one I was actually present for, the Cotton Bowl during the 2015 season. 38-0 in the semifinals. It was just never competitive.

Looking at the CFP as a whole:

2014 - Ohio State national championship - best showing to date
2015 - aforementioned Michigan State loss
2016 - Ohio State semifinal loss to Clemson 31-0.
2017 - no entrant
2018 - no entrant
2019 - Ohio State semifinal loss to Clemson 29-23
2020 - Ohio State final loss to Alabama 52-24
2021 - Michigan semifinal loss to Georgia 34-11
2022 - Ohio State and Michigan get in, but neither make the final.

If you go back to the BCS era then you have:

1998 - Tennessee over Florida State - no Big Ten entrant
1999 - Florida State over Virginia Tech - no Big Ten entrant
2000 - Oklahoma over Florida State - no Big Ten entrant
2001 - Miami over Nebraska - 37-14 loss for the current Big Ten program
2002 - Ohio State over Miami - best showing for Big Ten during that era
2003 - LSU over Oklahoma - no Big Ten entrant
2004 - USC over Oklahoma - future Big Ten member wins big
2005 - Texas over USC - classic SEC/Big Ten showdown here...
2006 - Florida over Ohio State - 41-14 loss
2007 - LSU over Ohio State - 38-24 loss
2008 - Florida over Oklahoma - no Big Ten entrant
2009 - Alabama over Texas - no Big Ten entrant
2010 - Auburn over Oregon - close loss for future Big Ten member
2011 - Alabama over LSU - no Big Ten entrant
2012 - Alabama over Notre Dame - no Big Ten entrant
2013 - Florida State over Auburn - no Big Ten entrant

I haven't looked at the old BCS bowl games and the showings might be a little better from that era, but I was trying to include games that included real stakes.

Just remember money talks. If the Big Ten offers Florida State and Clemson a life changing amount of money more than the SEC, these schools will be going to the Big Ten. If the Big Ten offered ALABAMA a life changing amount of money more than the SEC, Alabama will be going to the Big Ten, don't kid yourselves. Now of course AAU and Alabama's academics will be an issue but Alabama is a game changer in college football and money wise and "life changing money" between the Big Ten and SEC is really going to be a ton of money. In addition, Alabama and the SEC has way more history than Florida State and Clemson do, I'm not kidding myself, Alabama isn't going to the Big Ten in my lifetime. Hey if I told you in 2021 that USC and UCLA were going to the Big Ten you probably wouldn't have believed me either.

Last year the Big Ten didn't get into the CFP Championship game but for the first time they did get two in the semifinals (both Michigan and Ohio State). Once the Playoff goes to 12 teams, I expect Penn State to make the Playoff at least a few times based on the last few years and the trend for USC, Washington, and Oregon seems to be upward. Also next year the Big Ten gets CBS all to themselves and we know what CBS did with hyping up the SEC the last 20 or so years. I'm not saying the Big Ten will win a national championship or two in the next ten years but I say don't sleep on us.

(09-29-2023 10:55 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  On the face of it, it seems obvious, right? Clemson and FSU both fit quite well within the current SEC footprint, their travel would be similar to what it is in the ACC, etc etc. However, why are they really so anxious to make a move? Because they want to keep winning Championships, and they think that bringing in 20 or $30m less per year in media rights payments than Vanderbilt or Northwestern would make that more difficult. Ok, they're probably not wrong there, but they could make just as much money in the B1G, and the travel wouldn't be a whole lot worse there than it is in the SEC. A&M, OUT, Arkansas, LSU, Missouri...there are a lot of pretty distant SEC schools. So, maybe they would consider the B1G, instead, especially if the SEC drags their feet. Right?

Wrong. If all they really care about is winning (which is overwhelmingly supported by the evidence), then why would they send their beloved football programs to the graveyard of past great programs that PSU and Nebraska (and soon USC) already populate? The only B1G school in 50 years with more than 1/2 a National Title is tOSU. Michigan has that 1/2 a title in 50 years. tOSU has 2 titles in 50 years. The entire rest of the B1G has 0 (!!) titles. IN FIFTY YEARS. I think that Clemson and FSU have a better shot at titles in the next 50 years in the ACC than they would in the B1G, and I'm confident that their leaders agree.

It gets even worse when you really drill down into B1G football Championships. tOSU won a title in '68, and before that? 1960 - Minnesota. That's right, it's been 63 years since a B1G team other than Michigan or tOSU won a National Title. Clemson and FSU have won 3 each over that time period. And what about the SEC? Multiple teams have won titles in the past 25 years: Tennessee, Florida, Auburn, Georgia, LSU, and ofc Alabama.

This situation is unfortunate in some ways for the powers that be at these top ACC programs because Sankey knows this information just as well as they do. Even if the B1G decided to add them (coin toss maybe?), they'd have zero reason to join EVEN IF THAT MEANT STAYING IN THE ACC. So, their one card that they can play to get the SEC off our butts and anxious to close the deal with them in, say, 2024 instead of 2034? It's a 2 of clubs.

Aside from obvious geography and access to in state rivals in conference play every year, the SEC is the best place for them to win another national championship.

(09-30-2023 10:37 AM)schmolik Wrote:  Just remember money talks. If the Big Ten offers Florida State and Clemson a life changing amount of money more than the SEC, these schools will be going to the Big Ten. If the Big Ten offered ALABAMA a life changing amount of money more than the SEC, Alabama will be going to the Big Ten, don't kid yourselves. Now of course AAU and Alabama's academics will be an issue but Alabama is a game changer in college football and money wise and "life changing money" between the Big Ten and SEC is really going to be a ton of money. In addition, Alabama and the SEC has way more history than Florida State and Clemson do, I'm not kidding myself, Alabama isn't going to the Big Ten in my lifetime. Hey if I told you in 2021 that USC and UCLA were going to the Big Ten you probably wouldn't have believed me either.

Last year the Big Ten didn't get into the CFP Championship game but for the first time they did get two in the semifinals (both Michigan and Ohio State). Once the Playoff goes to 12 teams, I expect Penn State to make the Playoff at least a few times based on the last few years and the trend for USC, Washington, and Oregon seems to be upward. Also next year the Big Ten gets CBS all to themselves and we know what CBS did with hyping up the SEC the last 20 or so years. I'm not saying the Big Ten will win a national championship or two in the next ten years but I say don't sleep on us.

OSU brought in $37m more than bama last year ($251m vs $214m). How "life changing" was that extra $37m for OSU? Texas could have made more in the B1G, probably quite a bit more, but it's a credit to them that they decided that Winning was more important than making a bit more money but turning into the next Nebraska.

When you're a $120m a year program, an extra $30m can be "life changing". When you're a $220m a year program, the only thing that's "life changing" is winning titles.

(09-30-2023 10:56 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(09-30-2023 10:37 AM)schmolik Wrote:  Just remember money talks. If the Big Ten offers Florida State and Clemson a life changing amount of money more than the SEC, these schools will be going to the Big Ten. If the Big Ten offered ALABAMA a life changing amount of money more than the SEC, Alabama will be going to the Big Ten, don't kid yourselves. Now of course AAU and Alabama's academics will be an issue but Alabama is a game changer in college football and money wise and "life changing money" between the Big Ten and SEC is really going to be a ton of money. In addition, Alabama and the SEC has way more history than Florida State and Clemson do, I'm not kidding myself, Alabama isn't going to the Big Ten in my lifetime. Hey if I told you in 2021 that USC and UCLA were going to the Big Ten you probably wouldn't have believed me either.

Last year the Big Ten didn't get into the CFP Championship game but for the first time they did get two in the semifinals (both Michigan and Ohio State). Once the Playoff goes to 12 teams, I expect Penn State to make the Playoff at least a few times based on the last few years and the trend for USC, Washington, and Oregon seems to be upward. Also next year the Big Ten gets CBS all to themselves and we know what CBS did with hyping up the SEC the last 20 or so years. I'm not saying the Big Ten will win a national championship or two in the next ten years but I say don't sleep on us.

OSU brought in $37m more than bama last year ($251m vs $214m). How "life changing" was that extra $37m for OSU? Texas could have made more in the B1G, probably quite a bit more, but it's a credit to them that they decided that Winning was more important than making a bit more money but turning into the next Nebraska.

When you're a $120m a year program, an extra $30m can be "life changing". When you're a $220m a year program, the only thing that's "life changing" is winning titles.

Texas has won, what, 1 national title in the past ~50 years, and all of a sudden they are going to start winning by joining the SEC? You mean just like Texas A&M, Missouri, Arkansas and South Carolina. Do you honestly think the BIG caused Nebraska’s fall from elite status? Don't get me wrong, Texas fits the SEC, but don't act like a relationship with the SEC guarantees National Titles for newbies.

My memory is foggy, but I'd say FSU and the ACC relationship has been the best of any in the newer conference realignment scenarios? Pretty much all others have been duds.

Only two teams have won national titles *while under the B1G banner* in the past 50 years. BUT Penn State won two as an independent in the 80s (plus an undefeated season in 1994 in which future fellow B1G member won the title), Nebraska won three in the 90s (plus two more just prior to that 50 year window), and USC won two in the 2000s and three in the 70s (one of which was just outside that 50 year window in 1972). Washington won one in 1991.

It’s shaky at best to say that these programs have not won titles because of B1G membership. The incoming teams from the Pac haven’t even played a down as B1G teams. The others have either had bad hires with coaching (Nebraska), or either keeping a coach too long or being good but not great.

FSU and Clemson wouldn’t stop winning because they’d be in the B1G. Rather, they’d be THE southern teams in their conference and would have the opportunity to dominate.

I completely buy that the preference is the SEC, but they’ll go B1G all the way over the ACC.