(04-05-2022 03:32 PM)JRsec Wrote: (04-05-2022 03:15 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote: (04-05-2022 01:34 PM)b2b Wrote: (04-04-2022 04:26 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote: A couple questions...
1) Who will decide to not compete at this level? I might be wrong but IMO there will be a couple universities that will self demote.
2) Are the networks going to allow dead weight to stay aligned with their current conferences? My example is Mississippi State, they really don't bring anything for football or basketball that say a school like Florida State could bring. Does the mouse allow schools like this to stay? MSU isn't the only one either...
3) Why only 3 conferences? I know someone is going to yell at me but I feel like symmetry rules in professional sports, There is equal divisions and conferences in all of the 4 major north American sports so why not in what would become the 5th?
4) What will be the the cue that we can all look to and know unequivocally that this massive transition has begun?
No one is going to willingly walk away from that much guaranteed money, especially not people as risk averse as college administrators. Maybe there could be expulsions but idk what kind of legal can of worms that would open. I agree that there will be symmetry. I don't think you can set up 2 premier leagues and a 3rd lesser league. IMO what's more likely is the SEC and B10 go beyond 24 each absorbing what would've been the 3rd wheel conference and have multiple divisions each operating similarly to every other major professional sport in America. I think that would make for more competitive balance between and in the 2 leagues and house every program with a decent case for being at the top level.
I have always thought that 3 conferences would be a strange set up. I always envisioned the breakaway being 60-80 teams situated into 4 conferences with the ability in the future to cull the herd even further to get to the final solution of 2 super conferences.
I will take JR's word for it though.
Four isn't impossible, it's just very hard to believe it can happen that way. You will have 2 conferences making 40-45 million more than any neighboring conferences. You have 9 possible members in the PAC 12 which could do quite well in the Big 10. You have 5 in the ACC which could do well in either the SEC or B1G. You have at least 1 in the B12 which could do well in either the SEC or B1G. If any of these opt for an extra 45 million a year we don't have enough value to keep 4 conferences. We have enough for two true super conferences, and have a reasonably strong third.
So what do you believe?
A. The B1G adds Notre Dame and 1 other, possibly Kansas and stops at 16. The ACC stands at 14, somewhat further diminished. The SEC sits fat and happy at 16. The PAC 12 adds enough old B12 schools to end it as a power conference taking Texas Tech, T.C.U., Oklahoma State and Kansas State to stop at 16.
B. Duke, UNC, and Virginia ponder the Texas and Oklahoma decisions and the obvious disadvantages of their current contract and jump with ESPN's blessing to another ESPN property where they make ESPN more money. Or, that a B1G seeing the SEC make a power move to 20 decides to lure PAC schools.
If any schools leave the PAC 12 or ACC we are looking at 3 conferences.
Option A isn't super exciting but it seems clean. It does leave a lot of room for the PAC and ACC to be raided by the B1G and SEC.
Option B is more fun and there's already precedent with Oklahoma and Texas (albeit from the XII).
Let's look at Option B with some tweaks:
SEC + Clemson, Duke, Florida St, Kansas, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
B1G + Arizona, California, Colorado, Notre Dame, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah, Washington
The rest merge and add a few:
AAC: Memphis, SMU, South Florida, Temple
ACC: Boston College, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina St, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest
MWC: Boise St*, Colorado St, San Diego St
PAC: Arizona St, Oregon St, Washington St
XII: Baylor, BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia
* I rarely ever pimp my school in these but we do fill a hole here
SEC
Central: Arkansas, Kansas, LSU, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech
East: Clemson, Duke, Florida St, Miami, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
South: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi St, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
B1G
Central: Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
East: Maryland, Michigan, Michigan St, Notre Dame, Ohio St, Penn St, Purdue, Rutgers
West: Arizona, California, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah, Washington
XXIV
Central: Baylor, Iowa St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, SMU, TCU, Texas Tech
North: Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Temple, West Virginia
South: Central Florida, Georgia Tech, Houston, Memphis, North Carolina St, South Florida, Wake Forest
West: Arizona St, Boise St, BYU, Colorado St, Oregon St, San Diego St, Washington St