(04-05-2022 08:23 AM)JRsec Wrote: (04-05-2022 08:11 AM)XLance Wrote: (04-05-2022 07:26 AM)JRsec Wrote: (04-05-2022 05:01 AM)XLance Wrote: JR, you have been beating the three conference drum for a long time and perhaps it may come to pass, but I'm having a hard time wrapping my mind around the math.
Have you thought about dollar projections for those new conferences moving forward. Does conference #3 still project $53 million? Does the SEC still project $105 million per school or is it much higher due to content multiplying?
Of course I have X. The networks until just recently never gave any of us anything but peanuts. The NCAA gave us table scraps until 1983. The networks didn't know what we were really worth to them until the late 90's. Then they were afraid the would pay us too much and make us suspicious until an outside threat manifested (the rise of economic clout among the FAANG companies). Now they are beginning to work on honest percentages and now the upside for them is in culling unwanted product (third tier streaming where you may one day essentially pay the schools by view), and the brand mega draws playing other brand mega draws for consistent 5 million plus audiences (some double that or more).
Take the lid off basketball and you have a new frontier which had also been kneecapped by the NCAA.
Three years ago it was estimated (just for football) that one league of the top 48 programs would be worth 120 million plus and this was from one of those firms conferences go to before adding schools.
Well these estimates are a long way from that, but then we haven't culled down to 48 either. And now basketball can factor in so we might not have to do so.
A 24 member SEC and 24 member B1G at top pay creates a bridge to that exclusive league. A 24 member B12/ACC remnant would easily be worth 53 million or more and creates a safe space legally, while factoring in hoops potential, and keeping the fans oriented in conference thinking comfort. It's one reason I call it a transitional phase.
From there you could split back up into regional conferences, or move to a super league, whichever proves to be more conducive to viewing and profits. So a P3 of ~20-24 each is a safe place for the schools right now in that it eliminates nearly 3 sets of duplicated administrative expenses, and creates more saleable inventory, a safe place legally due to realistic access, and it's more malleable scheduling wise for networks tweaking ratings while remaining lucrative live entertainment easily scheduled around pro sports. And now for the Networks they have the kickback from the sports betting angle greasing their control.
I guess that what I am looking for is how paying 24 teams top dollar while paying another 24 what they would have made anyway more profitable for ESPN?
ESPN increases their overhead $500 million per year to get matchups they could have scheduled anyway?
A Carolina vs. Virginia game or a Duke vs. Notre Dame game won't generate increased fan participation just because it's in the SEC as opposed to the ACC. Would an average Kentucky team sell out Kenan against an average Carolina team just because it's a conference game. Even the Notre Dame game's attendance has started to wane in several ACC stadiums as the novelty has started to wear off.
The basketball thing is not relevant because it would exist even if the teams stayed in their current configuration.
I understand this thing would work for Carolina and would give the Heels increased revenue, but I am just not sure that ESPN would look on it as a wise long term business move.
Just a thought.
Duke plays Carolina twice in the regular season. These are strong draws and solid TV.
Add two games of Duke and Kentucky and Carolina and Kentucky. Now toss a strong regional draw like Virginia and Tennessee into that divisional mix. That's quite the dish of basketball and you haven't even factored in Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas in West. Even Auburn, Alabama, LSU, and Vandy are good TV. And Florida, South Carolina, FSU, & Clemson are solid.
Where else is ESPN going get top notch football and hoops in one place for $320 (40 million x 8) million which is the actual projected difference? The upside is massive for them content value wise.
And X, it may not be a top money sport, but the baseball would be unsurpassed.
I think you are on the right train JR, just riding down the wrong track.
What makes sense is to maximize football and then emphasize basketball. Notre Dame won't budge until forced
SEC
Miami, Florida State, Florida, Georgia
Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Auburn, Alabama
LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Arkansas
Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
ACC
BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Kentucky, UVa, Virginia Tech
Carolina, NC State, Wake Forest, Duke, South Carolina, Clemson, Georgia Tech
You did say the next round wouldn't be like any other.
I think the B1G then takes Kansas and waits for Notre Dame or moves on Missouri.
BTW, I actually like the SEC better as a 15 team league without Missouri.