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Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others:
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Transic_nyc Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others:
And then there's this from Jon Wilner:

Quote:The Hotline is slightly more bullish on the Pac-12 in the upcoming media rights negotiations than many industry observers.

That said, there is no scenario in which the conference comes close to matching the SEC and Big Ten revenue from their media partners.

Those leagues have more football brands, more passionate fans, larger alumni bases and better time zones — all the ingredients that drive TV ratings, which, in turn, drive media contracts — than the Pac-12.

And that revenue gap, both current and future, has been apparent to us for close to a decade.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/04/04/p...estimates/
04-05-2022 07:30 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others:
(04-05-2022 07:30 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  And then there's this from Jon Wilner:

Quote:The Hotline is slightly more bullish on the Pac-12 in the upcoming media rights negotiations than many industry observers.

That said, there is no scenario in which the conference comes close to matching the SEC and Big Ten revenue from their media partners.

Those leagues have more football brands, more passionate fans, larger alumni bases and better time zones — all the ingredients that drive TV ratings, which, in turn, drive media contracts — than the Pac-12.

And that revenue gap, both current and future, has been apparent to us for close to a decade.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/04/04/p...estimates/

Prep work Transic. Wilner is laying the basis for the PAC 12 to take what may seem to their fans to be radical action. You can't just spring major change on people. If you do they react very negatively.

Between 2010-2011 I believe the SEC office leaked information in advance of a planned move which would have taken the SEC and ACC to 16 each. Since 1992 most in the SEC thought the next expansion moves would be Clemson and FSU. The office knew if N.C. State and Virginia Tech were announced without laying the groundwork the fans would reject them. So Clay Travis spoke of the oodles of money the SECN would make on subscriptions in North Carolina and Virginia, and Mr. SEC (Pennington) sold everyone on the wisdom of market expansion.

When the deal fell apart on the ACC end of things ESPN promised full coverage of the
SECN on it's opening. A&M & Missouri were to be joined by that pair. Maryland bolted, allegedly when it fell through, because they were in need of the revenue which had been promised.

These are the kinds of stories I look for. Wilner is being factual. He's using an independent firm to disseminate the information so the B1G and PAC can't be directly linked to it. This keeps people from saying it is agenda driven, even though it isn't. It's reality driven. It would be interesting to know who paid for the study.

It's obvious however that top brands in the PAC and ACC can't just sit idly by and lose nearly a half billion over the next 10 years.

Bowlsby stepping down is more prep work simply indicating the NB12 to expect more change.

Notre Dame could well be the earliest signal out of the ACC should they express concerns over the future, which they have been leaking already. I'm pretty sure that privately some have been establishing contacts already.

IMO, if it happens that there is movement from or to the ACC, PAC 12, or B12 nobody should be surprised. Schools which can move can't pass on half a Billion.

So heads up! Flares have been sent up to get you prepared for what common sense should tell us all is likely due to happen because of the disparity. So get some popcorn and read the chit chat. More change is coming.
(This post was last modified: 04-05-2022 10:11 PM by JRsec.)
04-05-2022 10:01 PM
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DawgNBama Online
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Post: #43
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others:
(04-05-2022 11:26 AM)schmolik Wrote:  
(04-04-2022 07:19 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  
(04-04-2022 06:16 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  
(04-04-2022 05:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-04-2022 04:26 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  A couple questions...

1) Who will decide to not compete at this level? I might be wrong but IMO there will be a couple universities that will self demote.
2) Are the networks going to allow dead weight to stay aligned with their current conferences? My example is Mississippi State, they really don't bring anything for football or basketball that say a school like Florida State could bring. Does the mouse allow schools like this to stay? MSU isn't the only one either...
3) Why only 3 conferences? I know someone is going to yell at me but I feel like symmetry rules in professional sports, There is equal divisions and conferences in all of the 4 major north American sports so why not in what would become the 5th?
4) What will be the the cue that we can all look to and know unequivocally that this massive transition has begun?

1. If anyone opts out they are just out. I'm not sure unless it is a B1G or SEC member that it would make much difference.

2. Mississippi State won the national championship in baseball last year, and recently enough was a final game away in Women's hoops. They are charter members and no one is mucking around with core SEC members or core B1G members which is just good fortune for some.

3. Why a P5 if we love symmetry? It will eventually be a P2, the third conference is a necessary transitional phase. Some will make it and some eventually will not but nature will decide that.

4. Unless you are blind it has already begun. NIL was one symptom, Texas and Oklahoma leaving is your cue, and Pay for Play will be the starting gun for the race for a place to which some have already been working.

1. Makes Sense

2. Not a shot at Miss St, I guess I don't see how they're more valuable than an Arizona state or a Virginia Tech. Might just be a case of right place right time, I can accept that.

3. If a P2 is the end game, that pretty much answers the question.

4. Not blind, just wondering if there is another proverbial "shoe to drop", that I should be aware of or that is not being mentioned.

I'm not going to say that Mississippi State is less than or greater in value than Arizona State or VaTech. However, to their credit, Mississippi State is a founding member of the SEC, they do bring in some major markets (Jackson, MS is nothing to sneeze at, and MSU has a small portion of the Birmingham, AL market as well.). The national championship in baseball bolsters MSU's case even more!!!

Pay to play is the other shoe to drop, IMO.

As to who won't compete at this level, it's a mystery. I would start with D3 schools who have no desire to move up though.

The Jackson, MS market has less than 1 million people and assuming the SEC keeps Mississippi they will still have a team in it. They don't need both. If you want to say Mississippi State is more valuable because of their baseball championship and women's final, drop Ole Miss then. A small portion of the Birmingham market? Right, the SEC needs more of the Birmingham market, they don't have any schools that penetrate the Birmingham market now. Virginia Tech and Arizona State might be second schools in their states but would you rather have two schools in Mississippi, Arizona (which includes Phoenix), or Virginia (in which the Northern suburbs are right outside of Washington DC)?

Pete the Chop covered this a little bit, but I'd like to go into more detail with you.

Okay Schmolik, google a map of the U.S. Find Oxford, MS and find the city of Memphis, TN. google the distance between the two.

While I am sure that Jackson, MS has a fair amount of Ole Miss fans and/or grads who live there, I'd be willing to place a small bet that a lot more of them live in or near Memphis, Tennessee than you would find in Jackson, MS.

To me, Jackson is more for Mississippi State, a little bit of USM, and JSU than it is for Ole Miss. There's a reason why Memphis fans call their rivalry with Ole Miss (or Ole Mrs. as they prefer) a backyard brawl.
04-05-2022 11:14 PM
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Post: #44
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others:
(04-05-2022 01:25 PM)b2b Wrote:  I'm under no delusions that ECU can be competitive at this upper level. That said what happens to schools like ECU, UCF, USF, Memphis, Houston, SMU, Cincinnati, Tulane, etc? (In other words, mostly the old southern Indy's, SWC castaways and the Johnny come lately's too big to be ignored.)

It depends on how much that they want to compete with the big boys without stepping on E$PN's toes.

Here's something very important to remember b2b, and I have had to learn it the hard way!!!:

E$PN wants to be to college football (and I believe college basketball as well in due time) what CBS and Turner are to college basketball. E$PN will stop at nothing to accomplish this goal, IMO!!!!
(This post was last modified: 04-05-2022 11:20 PM by DawgNBama.)
04-05-2022 11:19 PM
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Post: #45
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others:
(04-05-2022 08:23 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-05-2022 08:11 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(04-05-2022 07:26 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-05-2022 05:01 AM)XLance Wrote:  JR, you have been beating the three conference drum for a long time and perhaps it may come to pass, but I'm having a hard time wrapping my mind around the math.
Have you thought about dollar projections for those new conferences moving forward. Does conference #3 still project $53 million? Does the SEC still project $105 million per school or is it much higher due to content multiplying?
Of course I have X. The networks until just recently never gave any of us anything but peanuts. The NCAA gave us table scraps until 1983. The networks didn't know what we were really worth to them until the late 90's. Then they were afraid the would pay us too much and make us suspicious until an outside threat manifested (the rise of economic clout among the FAANG companies). Now they are beginning to work on honest percentages and now the upside for them is in culling unwanted product (third tier streaming where you may one day essentially pay the schools by view), and the brand mega draws playing other brand mega draws for consistent 5 million plus audiences (some double that or more).

Take the lid off basketball and you have a new frontier which had also been kneecapped by the NCAA.

Three years ago it was estimated (just for football) that one league of the top 48 programs would be worth 120 million plus and this was from one of those firms conferences go to before adding schools.

Well these estimates are a long way from that, but then we haven't culled down to 48 either. And now basketball can factor in so we might not have to do so.

A 24 member SEC and 24 member B1G at top pay creates a bridge to that exclusive league. A 24 member B12/ACC remnant would easily be worth 53 million or more and creates a safe space legally, while factoring in hoops potential, and keeping the fans oriented in conference thinking comfort. It's one reason I call it a transitional phase.

From there you could split back up into regional conferences, or move to a super league, whichever proves to be more conducive to viewing and profits. So a P3 of ~20-24 each is a safe place for the schools right now in that it eliminates nearly 3 sets of duplicated administrative expenses, and creates more saleable inventory, a safe place legally due to realistic access, and it's more malleable scheduling wise for networks tweaking ratings while remaining lucrative live entertainment easily scheduled around pro sports. And now for the Networks they have the kickback from the sports betting angle greasing their control.

I guess that what I am looking for is how paying 24 teams top dollar while paying another 24 what they would have made anyway more profitable for ESPN?
ESPN increases their overhead $500 million per year to get matchups they could have scheduled anyway?
A Carolina vs. Virginia game or a Duke vs. Notre Dame game won't generate increased fan participation just because it's in the SEC as opposed to the ACC. Would an average Kentucky team sell out Kenan against an average Carolina team just because it's a conference game. Even the Notre Dame game's attendance has started to wane in several ACC stadiums as the novelty has started to wear off.
The basketball thing is not relevant because it would exist even if the teams stayed in their current configuration.

I understand this thing would work for Carolina and would give the Heels increased revenue, but I am just not sure that ESPN would look on it as a wise long term business move.
Just a thought.

Duke plays Carolina twice in the regular season. These are strong draws and solid TV.
Add two games of Duke and Kentucky and Carolina and Kentucky. Now toss a strong regional draw like Virginia and Tennessee into that divisional mix. That's quite the dish of basketball and you haven't even factored in Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas in West. Even Auburn, Alabama, LSU, and Vandy are good TV. And Florida, South Carolina, FSU, & Clemson are solid.

Where else is ESPN going get top notch football and hoops in one place for $320 (40 million x 8) million which is the actual projected difference? The upside is massive for them content value wise.

And X, it may not be a top money sport, but the baseball would be unsurpassed.

I think you are on the right train JR, just riding down the wrong track.

What makes sense is to maximize football and then emphasize basketball. Notre Dame won't budge until forced

SEC
Miami, Florida State, Florida, Georgia
Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Auburn, Alabama
LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Arkansas
Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

ACC
BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Kentucky, UVa, Virginia Tech
Carolina, NC State, Wake Forest, Duke, South Carolina, Clemson, Georgia Tech

You did say the next round wouldn't be like any other.

I think the B1G then takes Kansas and waits for Notre Dame or moves on Missouri.
BTW, I actually like the SEC better as a 15 team league without Missouri.
04-06-2022 07:31 AM
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b2b Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others:
(04-05-2022 07:30 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  And then there's this from Jon Wilner:

Quote:The Hotline is slightly more bullish on the Pac-12 in the upcoming media rights negotiations than many industry observers.

That said, there is no scenario in which the conference comes close to matching the SEC and Big Ten revenue from their media partners.

Those leagues have more football brands, more passionate fans, larger alumni bases and better time zones — all the ingredients that drive TV ratings, which, in turn, drive media contracts — than the Pac-12.

And that revenue gap, both current and future, has been apparent to us for close to a decade.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/04/04/p...estimates/

You left out the most important part. The writing is on the wall for sure.

Quote:— Next, projected distributions per school in 2029:

SEC: $117.8 million
Big Ten: $101.1 million
Pac-12: $62.8 million
ACC: $61.5 million
Big 12: $57.5 million
04-06-2022 07:56 AM
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PeteTheChop Online
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Post: #47
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others:
(04-06-2022 07:31 AM)XLance Wrote:  I think the B1G then takes Kansas and waits for Notre Dame or moves on Missouri.
BTW, I actually like the SEC better as a 15 team league without Missouri.

I'd guess most who follow the SEC a good bit would wholeheartedly agree with you.

Really, nothing against Mizzou as a program or fan base or whatever.

More that as a school in a (primarily) Midwestern state that includes St. Louis and Kansas City ... well, Missouri is a square peg in a round hole for both itself and the SEC.

And, believe me, as a Miami Hurricanes fan born and raised in North Florida, I know a square peg in a round hole when I see one :)
04-06-2022 08:50 AM
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Post: #48
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others:
Projected distributions per school in 2029:

SEC: $117.8 million
Big Ten: $101.1 million
Pac-12: $62.8 million
ACC: $61.5 million
Big 12: $57.5 million

Worth noting, those are the projections as the conferences are currently aligned -- including UNC, Duke, UVA, FSU and Clemson in the ACC and Notre Dame with its half-in, half-out status.

If any of the aforementioned schools decide they're tired of the financial shortfall and should the B1G and/or SEC offer chance(s) to move to a richer neighborhood, best believe all of us will quickly find how out strong that "iron clad" GOR agreement turns out to be.

If it's weak, then the gap between the Big Two and everyone else will grow much wider
(This post was last modified: 04-06-2022 09:05 AM by PeteTheChop.)
04-06-2022 09:05 AM
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Post: #49
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others:
(04-05-2022 10:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-05-2022 07:30 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  And then there's this from Jon Wilner:

Quote:The Hotline is slightly more bullish on the Pac-12 in the upcoming media rights negotiations than many industry observers.

That said, there is no scenario in which the conference comes close to matching the SEC and Big Ten revenue from their media partners.

Those leagues have more football brands, more passionate fans, larger alumni bases and better time zones — all the ingredients that drive TV ratings, which, in turn, drive media contracts — than the Pac-12.

And that revenue gap, both current and future, has been apparent to us for close to a decade.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/04/04/p...estimates/

Prep work Transic. Wilner is laying the basis for the PAC 12 to take what may seem to their fans to be radical action. You can't just spring major change on people. If you do they react very negatively.

Between 2010-2011 I believe the SEC office leaked information in advance of a planned move which would have taken the SEC and ACC to 16 each. Since 1992 most in the SEC thought the next expansion moves would be Clemson and FSU. The office knew if N.C. State and Virginia Tech were announced without laying the groundwork the fans would reject them. So Clay Travis spoke of the oodles of money the SECN would make on subscriptions in North Carolina and Virginia, and Mr. SEC (Pennington) sold everyone on the wisdom of market expansion.

When the deal fell apart on the ACC end of things ESPN promised full coverage of the
SECN on it's opening. A&M & Missouri were to be joined by that pair. Maryland bolted, allegedly when it fell through, because they were in need of the revenue which had been promised.

These are the kinds of stories I look for. Wilner is being factual. He's using an independent firm to disseminate the information so the B1G and PAC can't be directly linked to it. This keeps people from saying it is agenda driven, even though it isn't. It's reality driven. It would be interesting to know who paid for the study.

It's obvious however that top brands in the PAC and ACC can't just sit idly by and lose nearly a half billion over the next 10 years.

Bowlsby stepping down is more prep work simply indicating the NB12 to expect more change.

Notre Dame could well be the earliest signal out of the ACC should they express concerns over the future, which they have been leaking already. I'm pretty sure that privately some have been establishing contacts already.

IMO, if it happens that there is movement from or to the ACC, PAC 12, or B12 nobody should be surprised. Schools which can move can't pass on half a Billion.

So heads up! Flares have been sent up to get you prepared for what common sense should tell us all is likely due to happen because of the disparity. So get some popcorn and read the chit chat. More change is coming.

Raiding the ACC just makes more sense for the B$G 10 than raiding the Pac 12. California is a nice plum, but its really awkward to get.
04-06-2022 02:47 PM
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Post: #50
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others:
(04-06-2022 02:47 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(04-05-2022 10:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-05-2022 07:30 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  And then there's this from Jon Wilner:

Quote:The Hotline is slightly more bullish on the Pac-12 in the upcoming media rights negotiations than many industry observers.

That said, there is no scenario in which the conference comes close to matching the SEC and Big Ten revenue from their media partners.

Those leagues have more football brands, more passionate fans, larger alumni bases and better time zones — all the ingredients that drive TV ratings, which, in turn, drive media contracts — than the Pac-12.

And that revenue gap, both current and future, has been apparent to us for close to a decade.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/04/04/p...estimates/

Prep work Transic. Wilner is laying the basis for the PAC 12 to take what may seem to their fans to be radical action. You can't just spring major change on people. If you do they react very negatively.

Between 2010-2011 I believe the SEC office leaked information in advance of a planned move which would have taken the SEC and ACC to 16 each. Since 1992 most in the SEC thought the next expansion moves would be Clemson and FSU. The office knew if N.C. State and Virginia Tech were announced without laying the groundwork the fans would reject them. So Clay Travis spoke of the oodles of money the SECN would make on subscriptions in North Carolina and Virginia, and Mr. SEC (Pennington) sold everyone on the wisdom of market expansion.

When the deal fell apart on the ACC end of things ESPN promised full coverage of the
SECN on it's opening. A&M & Missouri were to be joined by that pair. Maryland bolted, allegedly when it fell through, because they were in need of the revenue which had been promised.

These are the kinds of stories I look for. Wilner is being factual. He's using an independent firm to disseminate the information so the B1G and PAC can't be directly linked to it. This keeps people from saying it is agenda driven, even though it isn't. It's reality driven. It would be interesting to know who paid for the study.

It's obvious however that top brands in the PAC and ACC can't just sit idly by and lose nearly a half billion over the next 10 years.

Bowlsby stepping down is more prep work simply indicating the NB12 to expect more change.

Notre Dame could well be the earliest signal out of the ACC should they express concerns over the future, which they have been leaking already. I'm pretty sure that privately some have been establishing contacts already.

IMO, if it happens that there is movement from or to the ACC, PAC 12, or B12 nobody should be surprised. Schools which can move can't pass on half a Billion.

So heads up! Flares have been sent up to get you prepared for what common sense should tell us all is likely due to happen because of the disparity. So get some popcorn and read the chit chat. More change is coming.

Raiding the ACC just makes more sense for the B$G 10 than raiding the Pac 12. California is a nice plum, but its really awkward to get.

It will be extremely difficult for the B1G to raid the ACC. A merger/TV partnership with the PAC would be easier. ESPN isn't going to surrender its growing monopoly over the Southeast and Southwest. If money is a problem for key brands the SEC is available. Otherwise, ESPN has the ACC locked down until the end of 2036.

I expect ESPN to lock up all of the B12 rights. If they do and you get out a map and plot all of the properties in the AAC, B12, ACC, & SEC you'll have a very clear picture of what it is they are doing.

With the noise out of USC the only interesting angle I see is independence. Consider this, if USC joins ND and an independent I could easily see ESPN locking up USC's rights. When N.D.'s NBC deal expires they could likely go after those.

Then USC and ND can give ESPN all the want as inroads into Los Angeles & the PAC, and into major Northern Mid-western cities without having to purchase more than they want in the PAC or Big 10. SC and ND could schedule games with B12, ACC, and SEC schools to make a highly profitable schedule, play each other, gain access to any ESPN backed playoff scenario and make out like bandits. That's what I would keep my eye open for out of all of the current noise.
(This post was last modified: 04-06-2022 03:04 PM by JRsec.)
04-06-2022 03:01 PM
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Post: #51
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others:
(04-06-2022 03:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 02:47 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(04-05-2022 10:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-05-2022 07:30 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  And then there's this from Jon Wilner:

Quote:The Hotline is slightly more bullish on the Pac-12 in the upcoming media rights negotiations than many industry observers.

That said, there is no scenario in which the conference comes close to matching the SEC and Big Ten revenue from their media partners.

Those leagues have more football brands, more passionate fans, larger alumni bases and better time zones — all the ingredients that drive TV ratings, which, in turn, drive media contracts — than the Pac-12.

And that revenue gap, both current and future, has been apparent to us for close to a decade.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/04/04/p...estimates/

Prep work Transic. Wilner is laying the basis for the PAC 12 to take what may seem to their fans to be radical action. You can't just spring major change on people. If you do they react very negatively.

Between 2010-2011 I believe the SEC office leaked information in advance of a planned move which would have taken the SEC and ACC to 16 each. Since 1992 most in the SEC thought the next expansion moves would be Clemson and FSU. The office knew if N.C. State and Virginia Tech were announced without laying the groundwork the fans would reject them. So Clay Travis spoke of the oodles of money the SECN would make on subscriptions in North Carolina and Virginia, and Mr. SEC (Pennington) sold everyone on the wisdom of market expansion.

When the deal fell apart on the ACC end of things ESPN promised full coverage of the
SECN on it's opening. A&M & Missouri were to be joined by that pair. Maryland bolted, allegedly when it fell through, because they were in need of the revenue which had been promised.

These are the kinds of stories I look for. Wilner is being factual. He's using an independent firm to disseminate the information so the B1G and PAC can't be directly linked to it. This keeps people from saying it is agenda driven, even though it isn't. It's reality driven. It would be interesting to know who paid for the study.

It's obvious however that top brands in the PAC and ACC can't just sit idly by and lose nearly a half billion over the next 10 years.

Bowlsby stepping down is more prep work simply indicating the NB12 to expect more change.

Notre Dame could well be the earliest signal out of the ACC should they express concerns over the future, which they have been leaking already. I'm pretty sure that privately some have been establishing contacts already.

IMO, if it happens that there is movement from or to the ACC, PAC 12, or B12 nobody should be surprised. Schools which can move can't pass on half a Billion.

So heads up! Flares have been sent up to get you prepared for what common sense should tell us all is likely due to happen because of the disparity. So get some popcorn and read the chit chat. More change is coming.

Raiding the ACC just makes more sense for the B$G 10 than raiding the Pac 12. California is a nice plum, but its really awkward to get.

It will be extremely difficult for the B1G to raid the ACC. A merger/TV partnership with the PAC would be easier. ESPN isn't going to surrender its growing monopoly over the Southeast and Southwest. If money is a problem for key brands the SEC is available. Otherwise, ESPN has the ACC locked down until the end of 2036.

I expect ESPN to lock up all of the B12 rights. If they do and you get out a map and plot all of the properties in the AAC, B12, ACC, & SEC you'll have a very clear picture of what it is they are doing.

With the noise out of USC the only interesting angle I see is independence. Consider this, if USC joins ND and an independent I could easily see ESPN locking up USC's rights. When N.D.'s NBC deal expires they could likely go after those.

Then USC and ND can give ESPN all the want as inroads into Los Angeles & the PAC, and into major Northern Mid-western cities without having to purchase more than they want in the PAC or Big 10. SC and ND could schedule games with B12, ACC, and SEC schools to make a highly profitable schedule, play each other, gain access to any ESPN backed playoff scenario and make out like bandits. That's what I would keep my eye open for out of all of the current noise.
USC won't go independent. They don't have the national following needed to support an indy run but even if ESPN or someone was willing to prop them up financially they would still refuse because they wouldn't do anything that resulted in all of their olympic programs having to slum it whether that be the Mountain West or somewhere further down the line like the Big West/Big Sky/WAC...
04-06-2022 03:30 PM
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Post: #52
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others:
(04-06-2022 03:30 PM)clpp01 Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 03:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 02:47 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(04-05-2022 10:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-05-2022 07:30 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  And then there's this from Jon Wilner:


https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/04/04/p...estimates/

Prep work Transic. Wilner is laying the basis for the PAC 12 to take what may seem to their fans to be radical action. You can't just spring major change on people. If you do they react very negatively.

Between 2010-2011 I believe the SEC office leaked information in advance of a planned move which would have taken the SEC and ACC to 16 each. Since 1992 most in the SEC thought the next expansion moves would be Clemson and FSU. The office knew if N.C. State and Virginia Tech were announced without laying the groundwork the fans would reject them. So Clay Travis spoke of the oodles of money the SECN would make on subscriptions in North Carolina and Virginia, and Mr. SEC (Pennington) sold everyone on the wisdom of market expansion.

When the deal fell apart on the ACC end of things ESPN promised full coverage of the
SECN on it's opening. A&M & Missouri were to be joined by that pair. Maryland bolted, allegedly when it fell through, because they were in need of the revenue which had been promised.

These are the kinds of stories I look for. Wilner is being factual. He's using an independent firm to disseminate the information so the B1G and PAC can't be directly linked to it. This keeps people from saying it is agenda driven, even though it isn't. It's reality driven. It would be interesting to know who paid for the study.

It's obvious however that top brands in the PAC and ACC can't just sit idly by and lose nearly a half billion over the next 10 years.

Bowlsby stepping down is more prep work simply indicating the NB12 to expect more change.

Notre Dame could well be the earliest signal out of the ACC should they express concerns over the future, which they have been leaking already. I'm pretty sure that privately some have been establishing contacts already.

IMO, if it happens that there is movement from or to the ACC, PAC 12, or B12 nobody should be surprised. Schools which can move can't pass on half a Billion.

So heads up! Flares have been sent up to get you prepared for what common sense should tell us all is likely due to happen because of the disparity. So get some popcorn and read the chit chat. More change is coming.

Raiding the ACC just makes more sense for the B$G 10 than raiding the Pac 12. California is a nice plum, but its really awkward to get.

It will be extremely difficult for the B1G to raid the ACC. A merger/TV partnership with the PAC would be easier. ESPN isn't going to surrender its growing monopoly over the Southeast and Southwest. If money is a problem for key brands the SEC is available. Otherwise, ESPN has the ACC locked down until the end of 2036.

I expect ESPN to lock up all of the B12 rights. If they do and you get out a map and plot all of the properties in the AAC, B12, ACC, & SEC you'll have a very clear picture of what it is they are doing.

With the noise out of USC the only interesting angle I see is independence. Consider this, if USC joins ND and an independent I could easily see ESPN locking up USC's rights. When N.D.'s NBC deal expires they could likely go after those.

Then USC and ND can give ESPN all the want as inroads into Los Angeles & the PAC, and into major Northern Mid-western cities without having to purchase more than they want in the PAC or Big 10. SC and ND could schedule games with B12, ACC, and SEC schools to make a highly profitable schedule, play each other, gain access to any ESPN backed playoff scenario and make out like bandits. That's what I would keep my eye open for out of all of the current noise.
USC won't go independent. They don't have the national following needed to support an indy run but even if ESPN or someone was willing to prop them up financially they would still refuse because they wouldn't do anything that resulted in all of their olympic programs having to slum it whether that be the Mountain West or somewhere further down the line like the Big West/Big Sky/WAC...

It would be more like the B12 if they had to do so. Swimming & Diving, Track & Field, Gymnastics, etc. could be accommodated within the ESPN family. Odds are the PAC which would still want and need games with them for exposure and legitimacy, and would keep the Olympic Sports and other non revenues to ensure it. Remember the PAC schools need exposure in B12, SEC, and ACC regions if they are to up their profile and USC is a flagship program for the PAC. If they lost them it is USC which would have a lot of leverage. The "Alliance" rankled a lot of feelings. Those 3 conferences within ESPN could easily cut the PAC out of scheduling and play fully within their larger region and all monies would stay with ESPN/Disney.
(This post was last modified: 04-06-2022 04:20 PM by JRsec.)
04-06-2022 04:02 PM
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clpp01 Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others:
(04-06-2022 04:02 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 03:30 PM)clpp01 Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 03:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 02:47 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(04-05-2022 10:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Prep work Transic. Wilner is laying the basis for the PAC 12 to take what may seem to their fans to be radical action. You can't just spring major change on people. If you do they react very negatively.

Between 2010-2011 I believe the SEC office leaked information in advance of a planned move which would have taken the SEC and ACC to 16 each. Since 1992 most in the SEC thought the next expansion moves would be Clemson and FSU. The office knew if N.C. State and Virginia Tech were announced without laying the groundwork the fans would reject them. So Clay Travis spoke of the oodles of money the SECN would make on subscriptions in North Carolina and Virginia, and Mr. SEC (Pennington) sold everyone on the wisdom of market expansion.

When the deal fell apart on the ACC end of things ESPN promised full coverage of the
SECN on it's opening. A&M & Missouri were to be joined by that pair. Maryland bolted, allegedly when it fell through, because they were in need of the revenue which had been promised.

These are the kinds of stories I look for. Wilner is being factual. He's using an independent firm to disseminate the information so the B1G and PAC can't be directly linked to it. This keeps people from saying it is agenda driven, even though it isn't. It's reality driven. It would be interesting to know who paid for the study.

It's obvious however that top brands in the PAC and ACC can't just sit idly by and lose nearly a half billion over the next 10 years.

Bowlsby stepping down is more prep work simply indicating the NB12 to expect more change.

Notre Dame could well be the earliest signal out of the ACC should they express concerns over the future, which they have been leaking already. I'm pretty sure that privately some have been establishing contacts already.

IMO, if it happens that there is movement from or to the ACC, PAC 12, or B12 nobody should be surprised. Schools which can move can't pass on half a Billion.

So heads up! Flares have been sent up to get you prepared for what common sense should tell us all is likely due to happen because of the disparity. So get some popcorn and read the chit chat. More change is coming.

Raiding the ACC just makes more sense for the B$G 10 than raiding the Pac 12. California is a nice plum, but its really awkward to get.

It will be extremely difficult for the B1G to raid the ACC. A merger/TV partnership with the PAC would be easier. ESPN isn't going to surrender its growing monopoly over the Southeast and Southwest. If money is a problem for key brands the SEC is available. Otherwise, ESPN has the ACC locked down until the end of 2036.

I expect ESPN to lock up all of the B12 rights. If they do and you get out a map and plot all of the properties in the AAC, B12, ACC, & SEC you'll have a very clear picture of what it is they are doing.

With the noise out of USC the only interesting angle I see is independence. Consider this, if USC joins ND and an independent I could easily see ESPN locking up USC's rights. When N.D.'s NBC deal expires they could likely go after those.

Then USC and ND can give ESPN all the want as inroads into Los Angeles & the PAC, and into major Northern Mid-western cities without having to purchase more than they want in the PAC or Big 10. SC and ND could schedule games with B12, ACC, and SEC schools to make a highly profitable schedule, play each other, gain access to any ESPN backed playoff scenario and make out like bandits. That's what I would keep my eye open for out of all of the current noise.
USC won't go independent. They don't have the national following needed to support an indy run but even if ESPN or someone was willing to prop them up financially they would still refuse because they wouldn't do anything that resulted in all of their olympic programs having to slum it whether that be the Mountain West or somewhere further down the line like the Big West/Big Sky/WAC...

It would be more like the B12 if they had to do so. Swimming & Diving, Track & Field, Gymnastics, etc. could be accommodated within the ESPN family. Odds are the PAC which would still want and need games with them for exposure and legitimacy would keep the Olympic Sports and other non revenues. Remember the PAC schools need exposure in B12, SEC, and ACC regions if they are to up their profile and USC is a flagship program for the PAC. If they lost them it is USC which would have a lot of leverage. The "Alliance" rankled a lot of feelings. Those 3 conferences within ESPN could easily cut the PAC out of scheduling and play fully within their larger region and all monies would stay with ESPN/Disney.
To make sense of USC moving it would have to involve a pretty steep cut back in their schedule for P12 schools otherwise it really doesn't make sense to move to independence yet still play a P12 loaded schedule and if ESPN were the power broker pushing things behind the scenes then it would further make sense that it would be with a more ESPN friendly national schedule where they play more schools residing within the ESPN footprint which leaves little room for USC to continue playing P12 schools outside UCLA and likely Cal/Stanford.

Without football the rest of P12 (assuming USC was the sole defector) would immediately move to expel USC from the conference in all other aspects. SC asking to stay in the P12 after the fact would be like your wife/husband telling you they want a divorce and that they have started seeing other people while also asking if they could still live in your house.

The Big 12 is home to a collection of schools that the decision makers of USC would have little interest in associating with. Most people put the emphasis on the academic snobbery within the P12 largely at the feet of Stanford and the UC schools but USC (and others) has always carried the same mindset as those 3 have.
04-06-2022 05:34 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others:
(04-06-2022 05:34 PM)clpp01 Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 04:02 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 03:30 PM)clpp01 Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 03:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 02:47 PM)bullet Wrote:  Raiding the ACC just makes more sense for the B$G 10 than raiding the Pac 12. California is a nice plum, but its really awkward to get.

It will be extremely difficult for the B1G to raid the ACC. A merger/TV partnership with the PAC would be easier. ESPN isn't going to surrender its growing monopoly over the Southeast and Southwest. If money is a problem for key brands the SEC is available. Otherwise, ESPN has the ACC locked down until the end of 2036.

I expect ESPN to lock up all of the B12 rights. If they do and you get out a map and plot all of the properties in the AAC, B12, ACC, & SEC you'll have a very clear picture of what it is they are doing.

With the noise out of USC the only interesting angle I see is independence. Consider this, if USC joins ND and an independent I could easily see ESPN locking up USC's rights. When N.D.'s NBC deal expires they could likely go after those.

Then USC and ND can give ESPN all the want as inroads into Los Angeles & the PAC, and into major Northern Mid-western cities without having to purchase more than they want in the PAC or Big 10. SC and ND could schedule games with B12, ACC, and SEC schools to make a highly profitable schedule, play each other, gain access to any ESPN backed playoff scenario and make out like bandits. That's what I would keep my eye open for out of all of the current noise.
USC won't go independent. They don't have the national following needed to support an indy run but even if ESPN or someone was willing to prop them up financially they would still refuse because they wouldn't do anything that resulted in all of their olympic programs having to slum it whether that be the Mountain West or somewhere further down the line like the Big West/Big Sky/WAC...

It would be more like the B12 if they had to do so. Swimming & Diving, Track & Field, Gymnastics, etc. could be accommodated within the ESPN family. Odds are the PAC which would still want and need games with them for exposure and legitimacy would keep the Olympic Sports and other non revenues. Remember the PAC schools need exposure in B12, SEC, and ACC regions if they are to up their profile and USC is a flagship program for the PAC. If they lost them it is USC which would have a lot of leverage. The "Alliance" rankled a lot of feelings. Those 3 conferences within ESPN could easily cut the PAC out of scheduling and play fully within their larger region and all monies would stay with ESPN/Disney.
To make sense of USC moving it would have to involve a pretty steep cut back in their schedule for P12 schools otherwise it really doesn't make sense to move to independence yet still play a P12 loaded schedule and if ESPN were the power broker pushing things behind the scenes then it would further make sense that it would be with a more ESPN friendly national schedule where they play more schools residing within the ESPN footprint which leaves little room for USC to continue playing P12 schools outside UCLA and likely Cal/Stanford.

These are the only ones I had in mind, and likely not all 3 in any given year.

Without football the rest of P12 (assuming USC was the sole defector) would immediately move to expel USC from the conference in all other aspects. SC asking to stay in the P12 after the fact would be like your wife/husband telling you they want a divorce and that they have started seeing other people while also asking if they could still live in your house.

And this is the kind of scorched Earth that would only damage the PAC. This may be their first impulse but one which comes with repercussions. No PAC games with B12, SEC, or ACC schools. It's the PAC which is having to rebuild sports branding, especially in football. The already lagging value of the PAC loses 10.8% of its total value with U.S.C.'s departure, and that's 10.8% of the down USC, not the one on an upswing. So you lose actual value with their departure as well as perceived strength. And the result of alienating the aforementioned conferences is you lose any chance to revive it with OOC SOS.

The Big 12 is home to a collection of schools that the decision makers of USC would have little interest in associating with. Most people put the emphasis on the academic snobbery within the P12 largely at the feet of Stanford and the UC schools but USC (and others) has always carried the same mindset as those 3 have.

I believe this is true. But where we are headed athletics and academics will be subsets with little, if any, overlap. This is what happens when amateurism is dead and athletes become employees of the school
04-06-2022 05:58 PM
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Transic_nyc Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others:
(04-06-2022 05:34 PM)clpp01 Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 04:02 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 03:30 PM)clpp01 Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 03:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 02:47 PM)bullet Wrote:  Raiding the ACC just makes more sense for the B$G 10 than raiding the Pac 12. California is a nice plum, but its really awkward to get.

It will be extremely difficult for the B1G to raid the ACC. A merger/TV partnership with the PAC would be easier. ESPN isn't going to surrender its growing monopoly over the Southeast and Southwest. If money is a problem for key brands the SEC is available. Otherwise, ESPN has the ACC locked down until the end of 2036.

I expect ESPN to lock up all of the B12 rights. If they do and you get out a map and plot all of the properties in the AAC, B12, ACC, & SEC you'll have a very clear picture of what it is they are doing.

With the noise out of USC the only interesting angle I see is independence. Consider this, if USC joins ND and an independent I could easily see ESPN locking up USC's rights. When N.D.'s NBC deal expires they could likely go after those.

Then USC and ND can give ESPN all the want as inroads into Los Angeles & the PAC, and into major Northern Mid-western cities without having to purchase more than they want in the PAC or Big 10. SC and ND could schedule games with B12, ACC, and SEC schools to make a highly profitable schedule, play each other, gain access to any ESPN backed playoff scenario and make out like bandits. That's what I would keep my eye open for out of all of the current noise.
USC won't go independent. They don't have the national following needed to support an indy run but even if ESPN or someone was willing to prop them up financially they would still refuse because they wouldn't do anything that resulted in all of their olympic programs having to slum it whether that be the Mountain West or somewhere further down the line like the Big West/Big Sky/WAC...

It would be more like the B12 if they had to do so. Swimming & Diving, Track & Field, Gymnastics, etc. could be accommodated within the ESPN family. Odds are the PAC which would still want and need games with them for exposure and legitimacy would keep the Olympic Sports and other non revenues. Remember the PAC schools need exposure in B12, SEC, and ACC regions if they are to up their profile and USC is a flagship program for the PAC. If they lost them it is USC which would have a lot of leverage. The "Alliance" rankled a lot of feelings. Those 3 conferences within ESPN could easily cut the PAC out of scheduling and play fully within their larger region and all monies would stay with ESPN/Disney.
To make sense of USC moving it would have to involve a pretty steep cut back in their schedule for P12 schools otherwise it really doesn't make sense to move to independence yet still play a P12 loaded schedule and if ESPN were the power broker pushing things behind the scenes then it would further make sense that it would be with a more ESPN friendly national schedule where they play more schools residing within the ESPN footprint which leaves little room for USC to continue playing P12 schools outside UCLA and likely Cal/Stanford.

Without football the rest of P12 (assuming USC was the sole defector) would immediately move to expel USC from the conference in all other aspects. SC asking to stay in the P12 after the fact would be like your wife/husband telling you they want a divorce and that they have started seeing other people while also asking if they could still live in your house.

The Big 12 is home to a collection of schools that the decision makers of USC would have little interest in associating with. Most people put the emphasis on the academic snobbery within the P12 largely at the feet of Stanford and the UC schools but USC (and others) has always carried the same mindset as those 3 have.

We're quickly coming to a point where both the PAC or Big Ten's market power would be overwhelmed by a corporate structure whose values are nearly opposite of our values. As much regional pride in both we're not going to last long as separate entities. Programs would be more incentivized to act on their own interest unless we put our heads together and make it worthwhile to stay.
04-06-2022 06:28 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #56
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others:
(04-06-2022 06:28 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 05:34 PM)clpp01 Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 04:02 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 03:30 PM)clpp01 Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 03:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  It will be extremely difficult for the B1G to raid the ACC. A merger/TV partnership with the PAC would be easier. ESPN isn't going to surrender its growing monopoly over the Southeast and Southwest. If money is a problem for key brands the SEC is available. Otherwise, ESPN has the ACC locked down until the end of 2036.

I expect ESPN to lock up all of the B12 rights. If they do and you get out a map and plot all of the properties in the AAC, B12, ACC, & SEC you'll have a very clear picture of what it is they are doing.

With the noise out of USC the only interesting angle I see is independence. Consider this, if USC joins ND and an independent I could easily see ESPN locking up USC's rights. When N.D.'s NBC deal expires they could likely go after those.

Then USC and ND can give ESPN all the want as inroads into Los Angeles & the PAC, and into major Northern Mid-western cities without having to purchase more than they want in the PAC or Big 10. SC and ND could schedule games with B12, ACC, and SEC schools to make a highly profitable schedule, play each other, gain access to any ESPN backed playoff scenario and make out like bandits. That's what I would keep my eye open for out of all of the current noise.
USC won't go independent. They don't have the national following needed to support an indy run but even if ESPN or someone was willing to prop them up financially they would still refuse because they wouldn't do anything that resulted in all of their olympic programs having to slum it whether that be the Mountain West or somewhere further down the line like the Big West/Big Sky/WAC...

It would be more like the B12 if they had to do so. Swimming & Diving, Track & Field, Gymnastics, etc. could be accommodated within the ESPN family. Odds are the PAC which would still want and need games with them for exposure and legitimacy would keep the Olympic Sports and other non revenues. Remember the PAC schools need exposure in B12, SEC, and ACC regions if they are to up their profile and USC is a flagship program for the PAC. If they lost them it is USC which would have a lot of leverage. The "Alliance" rankled a lot of feelings. Those 3 conferences within ESPN could easily cut the PAC out of scheduling and play fully within their larger region and all monies would stay with ESPN/Disney.
To make sense of USC moving it would have to involve a pretty steep cut back in their schedule for P12 schools otherwise it really doesn't make sense to move to independence yet still play a P12 loaded schedule and if ESPN were the power broker pushing things behind the scenes then it would further make sense that it would be with a more ESPN friendly national schedule where they play more schools residing within the ESPN footprint which leaves little room for USC to continue playing P12 schools outside UCLA and likely Cal/Stanford.

Without football the rest of P12 (assuming USC was the sole defector) would immediately move to expel USC from the conference in all other aspects. SC asking to stay in the P12 after the fact would be like your wife/husband telling you they want a divorce and that they have started seeing other people while also asking if they could still live in your house.

The Big 12 is home to a collection of schools that the decision makers of USC would have little interest in associating with. Most people put the emphasis on the academic snobbery within the P12 largely at the feet of Stanford and the UC schools but USC (and others) has always carried the same mindset as those 3 have.

We're quickly coming to a point where both the PAC or Big Ten's market power would be overwhelmed by a corporate structure whose values are nearly opposite of our values. As much regional pride in both we're not going to last long as separate entities. Programs would be more incentivized to act on their own interest unless we put our heads together and make it worthwhile to stay.

Add to this the fact that FOX is cutting overhead in its sports department, a sign which can either mean they intend to sell it, or intend to invest in a new asset, and it makes the timing of what the PAC 12 and B1G want to do all the more critical.

You aren't working against the machinations of the SEC, ACC, and likely NB12, your interests diverge from the machinations of ESPN/Disney. That's what fans that hate other conferences don't get. We have 2 groups of schools, those who have been assimilated into the BorgMouse collective and those who have so far eluded them. Conferences are merely tools for the assembly of product. It just depends upon whether ESPN can find the pressure point on each school which exceeds their ability to resist.

The entity which replaces the NCAA already exists. It is ESPN, and they are only interested in part of D1.
(This post was last modified: 04-06-2022 07:28 PM by JRsec.)
04-06-2022 07:25 PM
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #57
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others:
(04-06-2022 05:34 PM)clpp01 Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 04:02 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 03:30 PM)clpp01 Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 03:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 02:47 PM)bullet Wrote:  Raiding the ACC just makes more sense for the B$G 10 than raiding the Pac 12. California is a nice plum, but its really awkward to get.

It will be extremely difficult for the B1G to raid the ACC. A merger/TV partnership with the PAC would be easier. ESPN isn't going to surrender its growing monopoly over the Southeast and Southwest. If money is a problem for key brands the SEC is available. Otherwise, ESPN has the ACC locked down until the end of 2036.

I expect ESPN to lock up all of the B12 rights. If they do and you get out a map and plot all of the properties in the AAC, B12, ACC, & SEC you'll have a very clear picture of what it is they are doing.

With the noise out of USC the only interesting angle I see is independence. Consider this, if USC joins ND and an independent I could easily see ESPN locking up USC's rights. When N.D.'s NBC deal expires they could likely go after those.

Then USC and ND can give ESPN all the want as inroads into Los Angeles & the PAC, and into major Northern Mid-western cities without having to purchase more than they want in the PAC or Big 10. SC and ND could schedule games with B12, ACC, and SEC schools to make a highly profitable schedule, play each other, gain access to any ESPN backed playoff scenario and make out like bandits. That's what I would keep my eye open for out of all of the current noise.
USC won't go independent. They don't have the national following needed to support an indy run but even if ESPN or someone was willing to prop them up financially they would still refuse because they wouldn't do anything that resulted in all of their olympic programs having to slum it whether that be the Mountain West or somewhere further down the line like the Big West/Big Sky/WAC...

It would be more like the B12 if they had to do so. Swimming & Diving, Track & Field, Gymnastics, etc. could be accommodated within the ESPN family. Odds are the PAC which would still want and need games with them for exposure and legitimacy would keep the Olympic Sports and other non revenues. Remember the PAC schools need exposure in B12, SEC, and ACC regions if they are to up their profile and USC is a flagship program for the PAC. If they lost them it is USC which would have a lot of leverage. The "Alliance" rankled a lot of feelings. Those 3 conferences within ESPN could easily cut the PAC out of scheduling and play fully within their larger region and all monies would stay with ESPN/Disney.
To make sense of USC moving it would have to involve a pretty steep cut back in their schedule for P12 schools otherwise it really doesn't make sense to move to independence yet still play a P12 loaded schedule and if ESPN were the power broker pushing things behind the scenes then it would further make sense that it would be with a more ESPN friendly national schedule where they play more schools residing within the ESPN footprint which leaves little room for USC to continue playing P12 schools outside UCLA and likely Cal/Stanford.

Without football the rest of P12 (assuming USC was the sole defector) would immediately move to expel USC from the conference in all other aspects. SC asking to stay in the P12 after the fact would be like your wife/husband telling you they want a divorce and that they have started seeing other people while also asking if they could still live in your house.

The Big 12 is home to a collection of schools that the decision makers of USC would have little interest in associating with. Most people put the emphasis on the academic snobbery within the P12 largely at the feet of Stanford and the UC schools but USC (and others) has always carried the same mindset as those 3 have.

I mean, let's think about this for a minute.

What leverage does the PAC 12 have in a scenario where USC wants a scheduling agreement akin to Notre Dame's deal as opposed to full membership? The PAC 12 would be pissed, but there's a reason the ACC was willing to allow Notre Dame to have a privileged position...they needed Notre Dame more than ND needed the ACC.

Precisely the same dynamics would exist when it came to USC and the PAC 12. It's a well-documented issue that there's backbiting in the league over the divisional alignment. Why? Because not everyone gets to play in Los Angeles as often as they used to. That hurts recruiting and exposure. Most of the PAC 12 schools would be happy to get beat by USC on a regular basis if it meant more exposure in LA because that market is the lifeblood of the conference.

All USC has to do is threaten to pull out(and they've been intimating they would look at other options for months) and what is the PAC 12 going to realistically do? They need USC. Who in the heck are they going to get that would compensate for the loss of the Trojans? No one.

So they'll allow a ND-style deal and hope for something better down the line. USC football will negotiate a deal for a minimum number of games and the world will keep spinning.

Remember also that the PAC 12 needs exposure on ESPN. The Mouse won't be absent in this process. ESPN will give the PAC 12 plenty of exclusive late night windows and the occasional prime time game. All along the way, USC will get what they need which is a minimum number of games on the West Coast including some rivals and a round robin of the other teams. Then they'll have plenty of games in other parts of the country which is what they need right now to separate themselves.

USC needs the separation to win more recruiting battles, build a more attractive schedule, and compete for national exposure.

If there were other strong markets in the PAC 12 footprint then USC wouldn't be looking elsewhere, but the Trojans are the strongest brand in not just the 2nd biggest metro area in the country, but by far the strongest market for the PAC 12. Keep in mind, I'm not talking about population...there's plenty of people on the West Coast. What they lack is a reasonable number of prospects to keep an entire conference afloat at the elite level. Maybe even more importantly than that, they lack market penetration when it comes to fan bases. The PAC states are some of the weakest when it comes to college support.

That is the core of the PAC 12's issues.
04-06-2022 07:35 PM
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SouthEastAlaska Offline
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Post: #58
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others:
(04-06-2022 07:35 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 05:34 PM)clpp01 Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 04:02 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 03:30 PM)clpp01 Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 03:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  It will be extremely difficult for the B1G to raid the ACC. A merger/TV partnership with the PAC would be easier. ESPN isn't going to surrender its growing monopoly over the Southeast and Southwest. If money is a problem for key brands the SEC is available. Otherwise, ESPN has the ACC locked down until the end of 2036.

I expect ESPN to lock up all of the B12 rights. If they do and you get out a map and plot all of the properties in the AAC, B12, ACC, & SEC you'll have a very clear picture of what it is they are doing.

With the noise out of USC the only interesting angle I see is independence. Consider this, if USC joins ND and an independent I could easily see ESPN locking up USC's rights. When N.D.'s NBC deal expires they could likely go after those.

Then USC and ND can give ESPN all the want as inroads into Los Angeles & the PAC, and into major Northern Mid-western cities without having to purchase more than they want in the PAC or Big 10. SC and ND could schedule games with B12, ACC, and SEC schools to make a highly profitable schedule, play each other, gain access to any ESPN backed playoff scenario and make out like bandits. That's what I would keep my eye open for out of all of the current noise.
USC won't go independent. They don't have the national following needed to support an indy run but even if ESPN or someone was willing to prop them up financially they would still refuse because they wouldn't do anything that resulted in all of their olympic programs having to slum it whether that be the Mountain West or somewhere further down the line like the Big West/Big Sky/WAC...

It would be more like the B12 if they had to do so. Swimming & Diving, Track & Field, Gymnastics, etc. could be accommodated within the ESPN family. Odds are the PAC which would still want and need games with them for exposure and legitimacy would keep the Olympic Sports and other non revenues. Remember the PAC schools need exposure in B12, SEC, and ACC regions if they are to up their profile and USC is a flagship program for the PAC. If they lost them it is USC which would have a lot of leverage. The "Alliance" rankled a lot of feelings. Those 3 conferences within ESPN could easily cut the PAC out of scheduling and play fully within their larger region and all monies would stay with ESPN/Disney.
To make sense of USC moving it would have to involve a pretty steep cut back in their schedule for P12 schools otherwise it really doesn't make sense to move to independence yet still play a P12 loaded schedule and if ESPN were the power broker pushing things behind the scenes then it would further make sense that it would be with a more ESPN friendly national schedule where they play more schools residing within the ESPN footprint which leaves little room for USC to continue playing P12 schools outside UCLA and likely Cal/Stanford.

Without football the rest of P12 (assuming USC was the sole defector) would immediately move to expel USC from the conference in all other aspects. SC asking to stay in the P12 after the fact would be like your wife/husband telling you they want a divorce and that they have started seeing other people while also asking if they could still live in your house.

The Big 12 is home to a collection of schools that the decision makers of USC would have little interest in associating with. Most people put the emphasis on the academic snobbery within the P12 largely at the feet of Stanford and the UC schools but USC (and others) has always carried the same mindset as those 3 have.

I mean, let's think about this for a minute.

What leverage does the PAC 12 have in a scenario where USC wants a scheduling agreement akin to Notre Dame's deal as opposed to full membership? The PAC 12 would be pissed, but there's a reason the ACC was willing to allow Notre Dame to have a privileged position...they needed Notre Dame more than ND needed the ACC.

Precisely the same dynamics would exist when it came to USC and the PAC 12. It's a well-documented issue that there's backbiting in the league over the divisional alignment. Why? Because not everyone gets to play in Los Angeles as often as they used to. That hurts recruiting and exposure. Most of the PAC 12 schools would be happy to get beat by USC on a regular basis if it meant more exposure in LA because that market is the lifeblood of the conference.

All USC has to do is threaten to pull out(and they've been intimating they would look at other options for months) and what is the PAC 12 going to realistically do? They need USC. Who in the heck are they going to get that would compensate for the loss of the Trojans? No one.

So they'll allow a ND-style deal and hope for something better down the line. USC football will negotiate a deal for a minimum number of games and the world will keep spinning.

Remember also that the PAC 12 needs exposure on ESPN. The Mouse won't be absent in this process. ESPN will give the PAC 12 plenty of exclusive late night windows and the occasional prime time game. All along the way, USC will get what they need which is a minimum number of games on the West Coast including some rivals and a round robin of the other teams. Then they'll have plenty of games in other parts of the country which is what they need right now to separate themselves.

USC needs the separation to win more recruiting battles, build a more attractive schedule, and compete for national exposure.

If there were other strong markets in the PAC 12 footprint then USC wouldn't be looking elsewhere, but the Trojans are the strongest brand in not just the 2nd biggest metro area in the country, but by far the strongest market for the PAC 12. Keep in mind, I'm not talking about population...there's plenty of people on the West Coast. What they lack is a reasonable number of prospects to keep an entire conference afloat at the elite level. Maybe even more importantly than that, they lack market penetration when it comes to fan bases. The PAC states are some of the weakest when it comes to college support.

That is the core of the PAC 12's issues.

USC is a top 10 program when they're bad, when they're good the Trojans are probably the most powerful program in the country, no offense to Ohio state or Alabama. So yes of course they have leverage.

Independence get's them nothing, USC won two national championships in the 2000's , Notre dame hasn't won one since 1988.

The PAC has as good a following as the ACC and better markets to play in than the BigXII. The only place USC would really consider going is the B1G. USC heading to the B1G alone has about a zero percent chance of happening. I haven't seen, heard, or read one lick of information about USC wanting to leave the PAC from a credible source so until then keep dreaming.

The only thing that I could really see as maybe having legs, especially given the current environment around the NIL and Pay for Play, is a possible merger of the PAC and B1G.
04-06-2022 09:19 PM
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clpp01 Offline
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RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others:
(04-06-2022 07:35 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 05:34 PM)clpp01 Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 04:02 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 03:30 PM)clpp01 Wrote:  
(04-06-2022 03:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  It will be extremely difficult for the B1G to raid the ACC. A merger/TV partnership with the PAC would be easier. ESPN isn't going to surrender its growing monopoly over the Southeast and Southwest. If money is a problem for key brands the SEC is available. Otherwise, ESPN has the ACC locked down until the end of 2036.

I expect ESPN to lock up all of the B12 rights. If they do and you get out a map and plot all of the properties in the AAC, B12, ACC, & SEC you'll have a very clear picture of what it is they are doing.

With the noise out of USC the only interesting angle I see is independence. Consider this, if USC joins ND and an independent I could easily see ESPN locking up USC's rights. When N.D.'s NBC deal expires they could likely go after those.

Then USC and ND can give ESPN all the want as inroads into Los Angeles & the PAC, and into major Northern Mid-western cities without having to purchase more than they want in the PAC or Big 10. SC and ND could schedule games with B12, ACC, and SEC schools to make a highly profitable schedule, play each other, gain access to any ESPN backed playoff scenario and make out like bandits. That's what I would keep my eye open for out of all of the current noise.
USC won't go independent. They don't have the national following needed to support an indy run but even if ESPN or someone was willing to prop them up financially they would still refuse because they wouldn't do anything that resulted in all of their olympic programs having to slum it whether that be the Mountain West or somewhere further down the line like the Big West/Big Sky/WAC...

It would be more like the B12 if they had to do so. Swimming & Diving, Track & Field, Gymnastics, etc. could be accommodated within the ESPN family. Odds are the PAC which would still want and need games with them for exposure and legitimacy would keep the Olympic Sports and other non revenues. Remember the PAC schools need exposure in B12, SEC, and ACC regions if they are to up their profile and USC is a flagship program for the PAC. If they lost them it is USC which would have a lot of leverage. The "Alliance" rankled a lot of feelings. Those 3 conferences within ESPN could easily cut the PAC out of scheduling and play fully within their larger region and all monies would stay with ESPN/Disney.
To make sense of USC moving it would have to involve a pretty steep cut back in their schedule for P12 schools otherwise it really doesn't make sense to move to independence yet still play a P12 loaded schedule and if ESPN were the power broker pushing things behind the scenes then it would further make sense that it would be with a more ESPN friendly national schedule where they play more schools residing within the ESPN footprint which leaves little room for USC to continue playing P12 schools outside UCLA and likely Cal/Stanford.

Without football the rest of P12 (assuming USC was the sole defector) would immediately move to expel USC from the conference in all other aspects. SC asking to stay in the P12 after the fact would be like your wife/husband telling you they want a divorce and that they have started seeing other people while also asking if they could still live in your house.

The Big 12 is home to a collection of schools that the decision makers of USC would have little interest in associating with. Most people put the emphasis on the academic snobbery within the P12 largely at the feet of Stanford and the UC schools but USC (and others) has always carried the same mindset as those 3 have.

I mean, let's think about this for a minute.

What leverage does the PAC 12 have in a scenario where USC wants a scheduling agreement akin to Notre Dame's deal as opposed to full membership? The PAC 12 would be pissed, but there's a reason the ACC was willing to allow Notre Dame to have a privileged position...they needed Notre Dame more than ND needed the ACC.

Precisely the same dynamics would exist when it came to USC and the PAC 12. It's a well-documented issue that there's backbiting in the league over the divisional alignment. Why? Because not everyone gets to play in Los Angeles as often as they used to. That hurts recruiting and exposure. Most of the PAC 12 schools would be happy to get beat by USC on a regular basis if it meant more exposure in LA because that market is the lifeblood of the conference.

All USC has to do is threaten to pull out(and they've been intimating they would look at other options for months) and what is the PAC 12 going to realistically do? They need USC. Who in the heck are they going to get that would compensate for the loss of the Trojans? No one.

So they'll allow a ND-style deal and hope for something better down the line. USC football will negotiate a deal for a minimum number of games and the world will keep spinning.

Remember also that the PAC 12 needs exposure on ESPN. The Mouse won't be absent in this process. ESPN will give the PAC 12 plenty of exclusive late night windows and the occasional prime time game. All along the way, USC will get what they need which is a minimum number of games on the West Coast including some rivals and a round robin of the other teams. Then they'll have plenty of games in other parts of the country which is what they need right now to separate themselves.

USC needs the separation to win more recruiting battles, build a more attractive schedule, and compete for national exposure.

If there were other strong markets in the PAC 12 footprint then USC wouldn't be looking elsewhere, but the Trojans are the strongest brand in not just the 2nd biggest metro area in the country, but by far the strongest market for the PAC 12. Keep in mind, I'm not talking about population...there's plenty of people on the West Coast. What they lack is a reasonable number of prospects to keep an entire conference afloat at the elite level. Maybe even more importantly than that, they lack market penetration when it comes to fan bases. The PAC states are some of the weakest when it comes to college support.

That is the core of the PAC 12's issues.

USC's entire motive for going independent in this theory would be to make more money, Notre Dame's motive for independence is its a way a life for them. ND has left millions on the table maintaining their independence whereas USC would only be in it for the money thus they would have to go all out as they already know what they would make playing a schedule full of P12 schools.

This is where the difference emerges. USC (in theory) wants independence for financial benefit but to achieve that goal then they much limit the # of games against P12 schools to 2/3 a year like Jr highlighted but if you are the P12 what are you truly gaining keeping a school around that just publicly told you that you aren't good enough for them in exchange for 1 game a year for own tv package not to mention that an independent USC instantly becomes a direct competitor to the P12 for tv slots and to P12 media partners whether thats ESPN, Fox or someone else advertising exclusivity to California and the west coast within the power structure.

So far from USC everything that has been written about them stems from comments made by their (then) new AD who clearly spoke out of turn and almost immediately had to "clarify" his remarks. Everything else has been nothing more than baseless speculation by this troll farm of college football "realignment experts"

I'm not naive and burying my head in the dirt pretending everything is going great in the P12. I would be in full agreement that the P12 as is existence is on a shelf life and similar to the ACC is just trying to run as much time as possible before succumbing to whatever new power structure rises in the wake of the NCAA's eventual death. USC leading a charge to go the Big Ten or some new super league, yeah that could happen one day. USC going independent not so much.
04-06-2022 09:23 PM
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Wahoowa84 Offline
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Post: #60
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others:
The suggestion that USC should go independent is crazy. As an independent, ND media rights are slightly less than than the average ACC payouts. As an independent, ND leaves media revenue on the table because booster contributions are maximized…so their boosters fund independence in football.

If USC needs more revenue, then they’ll advocate for unequal revenue sharing amongst PAC schools. Going independent is not financial panacea.
04-06-2022 10:00 PM
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