(01-09-2022 03:39 PM)blazers9911 Wrote:  

(01-08-2022 02:29 PM)Magic95Fan Wrote:  

(01-08-2022 12:50 PM)blazers9911 Wrote:  

(01-07-2022 01:41 PM)Magic95Fan Wrote:  Mercifully, North Texas only fell 12 spots to number 59 in the NET.

That’s about all I expected. Neither team was going to take a beating for losing that game. Let’s just hope the two of us can continue to win the games we are supposed to. Losing to one of the land mines in conference would be a worst case scenario for either of us.

Agreed. At this point, losing to each other or Tech is the way to not take a huge tumble in the NET. But we all know that each of us will at some point. Everyone has a bad night at some point.

Well that didn’t take long.

Somehow, UAB only fell 4 spots in the NET. Meanwhile, Tech fell 9 spots despite not losing.

(01-09-2022 08:35 AM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(01-08-2022 03:55 PM)DogsWin1 Wrote:  

(01-08-2022 03:32 PM)Magic95Fan Wrote:  

(01-08-2022 02:48 PM)Dawgxas Wrote:  

(01-07-2022 02:19 PM)WKUFan518 Wrote:  Nah, will fit right in for Sun Belt hoops...

ODU jump ship to horrible basketball conference. It won’t last long.
They’ll start complaining about awful Sunbelt basketball and they’ll push for a Sunbelt East split.

I firmly believe that has been the plan from the get-go. I will be completely shocked if the SBC East doesn't split off in the next 5 years or so. It'll be much easier to do now than it would have been to do this last summer.

Not if they want to keep playing football at the FBS level.

Why do you say that? Marshall and ODU have been pretty vocal about having a geographically tight eastern conference and they have a SBC division that mostly gives that to them. Breaking away down the road could make it even tighter with no western wing at all. Adding WKU, MTSU and Liberty to the 7 eastern division schools and you have a good fbs conference. I could see something like that happening eventually.

The remaining 6 from CUSA and the leftover SB schools merge.

(01-09-2022 04:11 PM)Magic95Fan Wrote:  

(01-09-2022 03:39 PM)blazers9911 Wrote:  

(01-08-2022 02:29 PM)Magic95Fan Wrote:  

(01-08-2022 12:50 PM)blazers9911 Wrote:  

(01-07-2022 01:41 PM)Magic95Fan Wrote:  Mercifully, North Texas only fell 12 spots to number 59 in the NET.

That’s about all I expected. Neither team was going to take a beating for losing that game. Let’s just hope the two of us can continue to win the games we are supposed to. Losing to one of the land mines in conference would be a worst case scenario for either of us.

Agreed. At this point, losing to each other or Tech is the way to not take a huge tumble in the NET. But we all know that each of us will at some point. Everyone has a bad night at some point.

Well that didn’t take long.

Somehow, UAB only fell 4 spots in the NET. Meanwhile, Tech fell 9 spots despite not losing.

And people say the NET isn't horribly flawed.

NET was devised by P5 to have min. 7 teams from each of their conferences. PAC 12 is so bad though lucky to get 3 most seasons. If didn't have the history and or name PAC 12 wouldn't get more than 1 team in like us. Same can almost be said about the ACC this season. ACC is trash this year.

(01-11-2022 08:59 AM)Shadow_Son Wrote:  

(01-09-2022 04:11 PM)Magic95Fan Wrote:  

(01-09-2022 03:39 PM)blazers9911 Wrote:  

(01-08-2022 02:29 PM)Magic95Fan Wrote:  

(01-08-2022 12:50 PM)blazers9911 Wrote:  That’s about all I expected. Neither team was going to take a beating for losing that game. Let’s just hope the two of us can continue to win the games we are supposed to. Losing to one of the land mines in conference would be a worst case scenario for either of us.

Agreed. At this point, losing to each other or Tech is the way to not take a huge tumble in the NET. But we all know that each of us will at some point. Everyone has a bad night at some point.

Well that didn’t take long.

Somehow, UAB only fell 4 spots in the NET. Meanwhile, Tech fell 9 spots despite not losing.

And people say the NET isn't horribly flawed.

Who says that?

NET rankings thru 1.13

This has been pretty consistent in that the new AAC takes the biggest hit and the new CUSA is the biggest winner. The SBC was ranked low and will continue to remain so with not much movement. No longer a lot of separation between the MVC, new AAC and new CUSA for bball.

https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_ranking...ties/22483

Current CUSA
UAB 40
North Texas 60
Louisiana Tech 75
Western Ky. 120
Middle Tenn. 125
Charlotte 142
Rice 177
Fla. Atlantic 189
Old Dominion 193
UTEP 197
Marshall 233
FIU 240
Southern Miss. 319
UTSA 342
Average 175

Future CUSA
Louisiana Tech 75
New Mexico St. 77
Liberty 112
Western Ky. 120
Middle Tenn. 125
Jacksonville St. 129
UTEP 197
FIU 240
Sam Houston 242
Average 146

Average comps based on future conference affiliations:
Big East 66
MWC 109
A-10 127
MVC 142
AAC 146
CUSA 150
SBC 200
MAC 210

Average NET variance between the current and future conference membership:
AAC drops <36> spots
CUSA rises 29 spots
SBC rises 2 spots

North Texas dropped a spot after beating Marshall on the road. Brutal.

(01-14-2022 08:58 AM)Magic95Fan Wrote:  North Texas dropped a spot after beating Marshall on the road. Brutal.

That surprised me. Then I saw Marshall’s NET ranking and was even more surprised.

(01-14-2022 08:58 AM)Magic95Fan Wrote:  North Texas dropped a spot after beating Marshall on the road. Brutal.

This right here is why UAB's win at UNT will not be considered quad 1 by the end of the year. Mean Green slipping with wins, will only take 2-3 loses to fall out of the top 75.

So would our best bet at having a two big conference be UAB winning out the rest of the season until the final of the conference tournament and lose to the second team in the conference? So UAB gets and at-large and another team gets the automatic? Or is UAB out of that conversation for an at-large?

(01-14-2022 11:35 AM)dawgonit Wrote:  So would our best bet at having a two big conference be UAB winning out the rest of the season until the final of the conference tournament and lose to the second team in the conference? So UAB gets and at-large and another team gets the automatic? Or is UAB out of that conversation for an at-large?

I think if UAB were to completely run the table and lose in the CCG, I think it would be enough to get in just based on their analytical ratings. Problem is, they have La Tech (x2), @ WKU, and UNT at home still left on their schedule. Is it possible for them to win all of those? Of course. Probable? I don't think so. What is helping UAB's case right now is at present they have 2 quad 1 wins in road wins at St Louis and UNT. They need both of those teams to keep winning and stay in the top 75 of the NET. IF that happens, they can get in. However the more likely scenario is one or both of them drop out as UNT is losing ground even in winning games (they also have Tech (x2), @ WKU, and @ UAB remaining) and St Louis is already dangerously close to dropping out at 71. UAB is currently 40th in the NET and a big factor in that ranking is the quad 1 wins. If those slip to quad 2 status, they will fall in the NET even if they are still winning games.

(01-14-2022 11:48 AM)Shadow_Son Wrote:  

(01-14-2022 11:35 AM)dawgonit Wrote:  So would our best bet at having a two big conference be UAB winning out the rest of the season until the final of the conference tournament and lose to the second team in the conference? So UAB gets and at-large and another team gets the automatic? Or is UAB out of that conversation for an at-large?

I think if UAB were to completely run the table and lose in the CCG, I think it would be enough to get in just based on their analytical ratings. Problem is, they have La Tech (x2), @ WKU, and UNT at home still left on their schedule. Is it possible for them to win all of those? Of course. Probable? I don't think so. What is helping UAB's case right now is at present they have 2 quad 1 wins in road wins at St Louis and UNT. They need both of those teams to keep winning and stay in the top 75 of the NET. IF that happens, they can get in. However the more likely scenario is one or both of them drop out as UNT is losing ground even in winning games (they also have Tech (x2), @ WKU, and @ UAB remaining) and St Louis is already dangerously close to dropping out at 71. UAB is currently 40th in the NET and a big factor in that ranking is the quad 1 wins. If those slip to quad 2 status, they will fall in the NET even if they are still winning games.

The problem's not the good teams we have to play, but the bad ones. We have to play UTSA again and Southern Miss twice. And we're taking UTSA with us to the AAC. You're welcome.

(01-14-2022 11:56 AM)58-56 Wrote:  

(01-14-2022 11:48 AM)Shadow_Son Wrote:  

(01-14-2022 11:35 AM)dawgonit Wrote:  So would our best bet at having a two big conference be UAB winning out the rest of the season until the final of the conference tournament and lose to the second team in the conference? So UAB gets and at-large and another team gets the automatic? Or is UAB out of that conversation for an at-large?

I think if UAB were to completely run the table and lose in the CCG, I think it would be enough to get in just based on their analytical ratings. Problem is, they have La Tech (x2), @ WKU, and UNT at home still left on their schedule. Is it possible for them to win all of those? Of course. Probable? I don't think so. What is helping UAB's case right now is at present they have 2 quad 1 wins in road wins at St Louis and UNT. They need both of those teams to keep winning and stay in the top 75 of the NET. IF that happens, they can get in. However the more likely scenario is one or both of them drop out as UNT is losing ground even in winning games (they also have Tech (x2), @ WKU, and @ UAB remaining) and St Louis is already dangerously close to dropping out at 71. UAB is currently 40th in the NET and a big factor in that ranking is the quad 1 wins. If those slip to quad 2 status, they will fall in the NET even if they are still winning games.

The problem's not the good teams we have to play, but the bad ones. We have to play UTSA again and Southern Miss twice. And we're taking UTSA with us to the AAC. You're welcome.

You're going to have to try and beat them by 40+ just so your NET doesn't drop too far.

(01-14-2022 08:58 AM)Magic95Fan Wrote:  North Texas dropped a spot after beating Marshall on the road. Brutal.

I wonder if we'd have kept our NET ranking had won by 12 instead of 4? UNT played kind of uninspired last night and missed on a lot of 3 balls. The Mean Green better be focused for our game at WKU Saturday. We need an impressive win to move back up in the NET rankings.

(01-14-2022 11:56 AM)58-56 Wrote:  

(01-14-2022 11:48 AM)Shadow_Son Wrote:  

(01-14-2022 11:35 AM)dawgonit Wrote:  So would our best bet at having a two big conference be UAB winning out the rest of the season until the final of the conference tournament and lose to the second team in the conference? So UAB gets and at-large and another team gets the automatic? Or is UAB out of that conversation for an at-large?

I think if UAB were to completely run the table and lose in the CCG, I think it would be enough to get in just based on their analytical ratings. Problem is, they have La Tech (x2), @ WKU, and UNT at home still left on their schedule. Is it possible for them to win all of those? Of course. Probable? I don't think so. What is helping UAB's case right now is at present they have 2 quad 1 wins in road wins at St Louis and UNT. They need both of those teams to keep winning and stay in the top 75 of the NET. IF that happens, they can get in. However the more likely scenario is one or both of them drop out as UNT is losing ground even in winning games (they also have Tech (x2), @ WKU, and @ UAB remaining) and St Louis is already dangerously close to dropping out at 71. UAB is currently 40th in the NET and a big factor in that ranking is the quad 1 wins. If those slip to quad 2 status, they will fall in the NET even if they are still winning games.

The problem's not the good teams we have to play, but the bad ones. We have to play UTSA again and Southern Miss twice. And we're taking UTSA with us to the AAC. You're welcome.

There is also the possibility of UAB winning at LA Tech being another quad 1 win. Bulldogs are 75th as of this writing. There are lots of factors, UAB just has to pray their quad 1 wins stay that way.

(01-14-2022 12:07 PM)austinniner Wrote:  

(01-14-2022 11:56 AM)58-56 Wrote:  

(01-14-2022 11:48 AM)Shadow_Son Wrote:  

(01-14-2022 11:35 AM)dawgonit Wrote:  So would our best bet at having a two big conference be UAB winning out the rest of the season until the final of the conference tournament and lose to the second team in the conference? So UAB gets and at-large and another team gets the automatic? Or is UAB out of that conversation for an at-large?

I think if UAB were to completely run the table and lose in the CCG, I think it would be enough to get in just based on their analytical ratings. Problem is, they have La Tech (x2), @ WKU, and UNT at home still left on their schedule. Is it possible for them to win all of those? Of course. Probable? I don't think so. What is helping UAB's case right now is at present they have 2 quad 1 wins in road wins at St Louis and UNT. They need both of those teams to keep winning and stay in the top 75 of the NET. IF that happens, they can get in. However the more likely scenario is one or both of them drop out as UNT is losing ground even in winning games (they also have Tech (x2), @ WKU, and @ UAB remaining) and St Louis is already dangerously close to dropping out at 71. UAB is currently 40th in the NET and a big factor in that ranking is the quad 1 wins. If those slip to quad 2 status, they will fall in the NET even if they are still winning games.

The problem's not the good teams we have to play, but the bad ones. We have to play UTSA again and Southern Miss twice. And we're taking UTSA with us to the AAC. You're welcome.

You're going to have to try and beat them by 40+ just so your NET doesn't drop too far.

Playing a weak schedule hasnt hurt UAB's NET SOS: -1.70 (236th of 358) because their coach has either lucked into or understands how the NET works and scheduled to make it work for his team...

overall the NET is mostly about
ORtg: 112.0 (29th of 358)

DRtg: 85.5 (12th of 358)

While SOS is going to play a role in at large bids and why UAB has a slim to none chance of getting a at large bid. Run out, make the championship, maybe, last 4 in. But other than that...not much hope.

Same thing last season I believe UAB had the 3rd best NET rating in CUSA with a SOS: -3.83 (211th of 347). But once again they had great numbers in....

ORtg: 105.3 (108th of 347)

DRtg: 87.4 (4th of 347)

So either their coach understand the NET and taking advantage of what works...easy schedule but beat up on those schools instead of winning close games vs those weak schools.

That works great to get you a top 50 NET but not to push you into a NCAA Bid. Unless you beat the couple of better teams you do play OOC

The MVC was great at working the RPI to their advantage. As a conference they knew OOC wins is what raises the conference once conference play started. So as a conference they basically scheduled to win OOC games and they did that by most of the schools buying 2 to 3 easy home wins over D1 teams. Other than the few that played at the top....

hardly every played more than 1 "pay check" type OOC game

So either Andy Kennedy knows how to work this system and if so I wish he would explain it to Stansbury and how important it is to try to beat the crap out of teams. Instead of just hanging on to get a win. Or he teaches dont just hang on...beat the crap out of those awful teams. Either way its working for UAB

Western
SOS: 2.15 (98th of 358)

Last season
UAB 20 - 7 SOS: -3.83 (211th of 347) net 83
Western 21 - 8 SOS: 0.50 (129th of 347) net 82

(01-14-2022 12:26 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(01-14-2022 08:58 AM)Magic95Fan Wrote:  North Texas dropped a spot after beating Marshall on the road. Brutal.

I wonder if we'd have kept our NET ranking had won by 12 instead of 4? UNT played kind of uninspired last night and missed on a lot of 3 balls. The Mean Green better be focused for our game at WKU Saturday. We need an impressive win to move back up in the NET rankings.

The Western game kind of feels like a must-win. Our NET won't be able to recover with some of the games we have on the schedule. UTSA x2 and USM x2 are going to crush our ranking even if we win big.

(01-14-2022 12:46 PM)Magic95Fan Wrote:  

(01-14-2022 12:26 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(01-14-2022 08:58 AM)Magic95Fan Wrote:  North Texas dropped a spot after beating Marshall on the road. Brutal.

I wonder if we'd have kept our NET ranking had won by 12 instead of 4? UNT played kind of uninspired last night and missed on a lot of 3 balls. The Mean Green better be focused for our game at WKU Saturday. We need an impressive win to move back up in the NET rankings.

The Western game kind of feels like a must-win. Our NET won't be able to recover with some of the games we have on the schedule. UTSA x2 and USM x2 are going to crush our ranking even if we win big.

Eh, we moved up after playing FIU last night. You just have to win really big, like 20+ points big.

The efficiency aspect makes sense in a vacuum to me, basically points per 100 possessions vs points given up per 100 possessions. The aspect that doesn’t make sense is the strength of the opponent. As a UAB fan, we haven’t been punished enough for the bad opponents we’ve played. And even though we’ve played our better opponents well, we haven’t won those games for the most part.

At the end of the day, it’s all about quad 1 wins, and UAB just won’t have enough of them to warrant and at large, regardless of what the rankings say.

(01-14-2022 08:39 AM)topper1296 Wrote:  NET rankings thru 1.13

This has been pretty consistent in that the new AAC takes the biggest hit and the new CUSA is the biggest winner. The SBC was ranked low and will continue to remain so with not much movement. No longer a lot of separation between the MVC, new AAC and new CUSA for bball.

https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_ranking...ties/22483

Current CUSA
UAB 40
North Texas 60
Louisiana Tech 75
Western Ky. 120
Middle Tenn. 125
Charlotte 142
Rice 177
Fla. Atlantic 189
Old Dominion 193
UTEP 197
Marshall 233
FIU 240
Southern Miss. 319
UTSA 342
Average 175

Future CUSA
Louisiana Tech 75
New Mexico St. 77
Liberty 112
Western Ky. 120
Middle Tenn. 125
Jacksonville St. 129
UTEP 197
FIU 240
Sam Houston 242
Average 146

Average comps based on future conference affiliations:
Big East 66
MWC 109
A-10 127
MVC 142
AAC 146
CUSA 150
SBC 200
MAC 210

Average NET variance between the current and future conference membership:
AAC drops <36> spots
CUSA rises 29 spots
SBC rises 2 spots

Topper1296, thanks for including the incoming teams. Can spur some discussion and help everyone know a little more about each other.

And seeing the average NET of teams exiting is 188 is nice too. Teams staying are 150 average.

And the AAC and SBC you see now will change as well. As they both load up on even more games against teams in the high 200's-300's, their numbers will suffer more than what's reflected by looking at current NET rankings. The more they play each other, they lower their collective numbers will sink.