I think the worst case for AAC is that 4-6 teams move to the B12. That would leave the AAC with 5-7. I still think they will be OK, be grabbing some CUSA and Sun Belt teams, but it would be a big hit. If 2 schools are taken, that could be absorbed pretty easily. There would still be good programs left.

(07-27-2021 09:30 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 09:12 AM)shere khan Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 08:19 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Worst case scenario for the AAC is losing Cincinnati.

because actually losing to cincy is infrequent.

We will send you care packages when things get tough and we are all Eastside Jeffersons.

It’s going to be like having your spouse divorce you twice in 15 years for a different sugar mamma/daddy. Might make a good country song.

you'll be back

2 Worst case scenarios in my mind

Super Power 4 breakoff:
The absolute worst case scenario is that the Super Power 4 (expanded versions of the SEC, ACC, B1G, and PAC) break off from the NCAA and create their own league leaving the remaining G5 to create their own G5 playoff.

There is nothing the AAC could do because we don't have autonomy status. The autonomy group makes all the rules.

SEC breakoff:
If the SEC can poach Texas and OU... What's to stop them from eventually creating a 32 team NFL type league. If this next SEC payout dwarfs the payout the B1G, ACC, and PAC receive. The logical conclusion for the Ohio State and Clemson's of the world would say their conference mates are holding them back from maximum payout. In 10 years time the SEC might be able to poach Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson, FSU, Oregon, Arizona, Washington. 32 team SEC/NFL model to own all of college football. The ultimate SEC victory.

(07-26-2021 07:46 PM)CougarTruth Wrote:  So there is apparently some potential upside for AAC here. What about potential downside and what could Aresco do to mitigate it?

Worse case IMO would be OU and TX to leave very soon, and for the L8 to take up to six AAC schools. If they take say Cincy, USF, UCF, Memphis, Houston and SMU, that would gut the AAC badly.

And I don't think there's anything that Aresco could do to stop it.

(07-27-2021 09:50 AM)shere khan Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 09:30 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 09:12 AM)shere khan Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 08:19 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Worst case scenario for the AAC is losing Cincinnati.

because actually losing to cincy is infrequent.

We will send you care packages when things get tough and we are all Eastside Jeffersons.

It’s going to be like having your spouse divorce you twice in 15 years for a different sugar mamma/daddy. Might make a good country song.

you'll be back

well played, sir. Well played.

(07-27-2021 09:50 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  2 Worst case scenarios in my mind

Super Power 4 breakoff:
The absolute worst case scenario is that the Super Power 4 (expanded versions of the SEC, ACC, B1G, and PAC) break off from the NCAA and create their own league leaving the remaining G5 to create their own G5 playoff.

There is nothing the AAC could do because we don't have autonomy status. The autonomy group makes all the rules.

SEC breakoff:
If the SEC can poach Texas and OU... What's to stop them from eventually creating a 32 team NFL type league. If this next SEC payout dwarfs the payout the B1G, ACC, and PAC receive. The logical conclusion for the Ohio State and Clemson's of the world would say their conference mates are holding them back from maximum payout. In 10 years time the SEC might be able to poach Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson, FSU, Oregon, Arizona, Washington. 32 team SEC/NFL model to own all of college football. The ultimate SEC victory.

In that scenario, all that are left behind should seriously consider moving to Spring ball. New professional leagues have realized there is more money in the "off season" than competing head to head with the NFL.

If there is a break, then why not be the best alternative. Have the G5 move to spring. It would suck and forever lock us into a second tier, but its what would happen anyhow.

At a minimum I think it will be five power conferences. Just for inventory sake.75-80 teams would cover enough time zones, with enough inventory.

(07-27-2021 09:51 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 07:46 PM)CougarTruth Wrote:  So there is apparently some potential upside for AAC here. What about potential downside and what could Aresco do to mitigate it?

Worse case IMO would be OU and TX to leave very soon, and for the L8 to take up to six AAC schools. If they take say Cincy, USF, UCF, Memphis, Houston and SMU, that would gut the AAC badly.

And I don't think there's anything that Aresco could do to stop it.

Yes, this is the worst scenario for AAC. I still feel like they could add, for example, UAB, Marshall, App, etc., but would take a huge hit.

I pulled for our old CUSA brethren when we left for the Big East. I'll pull for you all when we're stomping folks in the Big Ten or ACC as well.

(07-27-2021 09:50 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  2 Worst case scenarios in my mind

Super Power 4 breakoff:
The absolute worst case scenario is that the Super Power 4 (expanded versions of the SEC, ACC, B1G, and PAC) break off from the NCAA and create their own league leaving the remaining G5 to create their own G5 playoff.

There is nothing the AAC could do because we don't have autonomy status. The autonomy group makes all the rules.

SEC breakoff:
If the SEC can poach Texas and OU... What's to stop them from eventually creating a 32 team NFL type league. If this next SEC payout dwarfs the payout the B1G, ACC, and PAC receive. The logical conclusion for the Ohio State and Clemson's of the world would say their conference mates are holding them back from maximum payout. In 10 years time the SEC might be able to poach Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson, FSU, Oregon, Arizona, Washington. 32 team SEC/NFL model to own all of college football. The ultimate SEC victory.

These would absolutely be the worst scenarios. And I really feel like the “A” scenario may happen. And I find it ironic that all of this started soon after an agreed upon 12 team playoff. Just another way to keep us all from any access. This has been talked about before. I wouldn’t be surprised. There may also be another scenario where there are only three super conferences, the SEC, Big 10, and ACC. Who knows what’s going to happen at this point and how it’s going to play out.

(07-27-2021 09:53 AM)mtmedlin Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 09:50 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  2 Worst case scenarios in my mind

Super Power 4 breakoff:
The absolute worst case scenario is that the Super Power 4 (expanded versions of the SEC, ACC, B1G, and PAC) break off from the NCAA and create their own league leaving the remaining G5 to create their own G5 playoff.

There is nothing the AAC could do because we don't have autonomy status. The autonomy group makes all the rules.

SEC breakoff:
If the SEC can poach Texas and OU... What's to stop them from eventually creating a 32 team NFL type league. If this next SEC payout dwarfs the payout the B1G, ACC, and PAC receive. The logical conclusion for the Ohio State and Clemson's of the world would say their conference mates are holding them back from maximum payout. In 10 years time the SEC might be able to poach Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson, FSU, Oregon, Arizona, Washington. 32 team SEC/NFL model to own all of college football. The ultimate SEC victory.

In that scenario, all that are left behind should seriously consider moving to Spring ball. New professional leagues have realized there is more money in the "off season" than competing head to head with the NFL.

If there is a break, then why not be the best alternative. Have the G5 move to spring. It would suck and forever lock us into a second tier, but its what would happen anyhow.

At a minimum I think it will be five power conferences. Just for inventory sake.75-80 teams would cover enough time zones, with enough inventory.

Spring Ball only works if you expect none of your players to go to the NFL. That transition to Spring College ball to Fall NFL ball would not give players enough time to rest and heal. Most of our rookies would have their ACLs explode by week 3 of the NFL season.

(07-27-2021 10:13 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 09:53 AM)mtmedlin Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 09:50 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  2 Worst case scenarios in my mind

Super Power 4 breakoff:
The absolute worst case scenario is that the Super Power 4 (expanded versions of the SEC, ACC, B1G, and PAC) break off from the NCAA and create their own league leaving the remaining G5 to create their own G5 playoff.

There is nothing the AAC could do because we don't have autonomy status. The autonomy group makes all the rules.

SEC breakoff:
If the SEC can poach Texas and OU... What's to stop them from eventually creating a 32 team NFL type league. If this next SEC payout dwarfs the payout the B1G, ACC, and PAC receive. The logical conclusion for the Ohio State and Clemson's of the world would say their conference mates are holding them back from maximum payout. In 10 years time the SEC might be able to poach Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson, FSU, Oregon, Arizona, Washington. 32 team SEC/NFL model to own all of college football. The ultimate SEC victory.

In that scenario, all that are left behind should seriously consider moving to Spring ball. New professional leagues have realized there is more money in the "off season" than competing head to head with the NFL.

If there is a break, then why not be the best alternative. Have the G5 move to spring. It would suck and forever lock us into a second tier, but its what would happen anyhow.

At a minimum I think it will be five power conferences. Just for inventory sake.75-80 teams would cover enough time zones, with enough inventory.

Spring Ball only works if you expect none of your players to go to the NFL. That transition to Spring College ball to Fall NFL ball would not give players enough time to rest and heal. Most of our rookies would have their ACLs explode by week 3 of the NFL season.

Exactly. Plus, why overload content with basketball wrapping up and baseball starting up at the same time?

(07-27-2021 10:17 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 10:13 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 09:53 AM)mtmedlin Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 09:50 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  2 Worst case scenarios in my mind

Super Power 4 breakoff:
The absolute worst case scenario is that the Super Power 4 (expanded versions of the SEC, ACC, B1G, and PAC) break off from the NCAA and create their own league leaving the remaining G5 to create their own G5 playoff.

There is nothing the AAC could do because we don't have autonomy status. The autonomy group makes all the rules.

SEC breakoff:
If the SEC can poach Texas and OU... What's to stop them from eventually creating a 32 team NFL type league. If this next SEC payout dwarfs the payout the B1G, ACC, and PAC receive. The logical conclusion for the Ohio State and Clemson's of the world would say their conference mates are holding them back from maximum payout. In 10 years time the SEC might be able to poach Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson, FSU, Oregon, Arizona, Washington. 32 team SEC/NFL model to own all of college football. The ultimate SEC victory.

In that scenario, all that are left behind should seriously consider moving to Spring ball. New professional leagues have realized there is more money in the "off season" than competing head to head with the NFL.

If there is a break, then why not be the best alternative. Have the G5 move to spring. It would suck and forever lock us into a second tier, but its what would happen anyhow.

At a minimum I think it will be five power conferences. Just for inventory sake.75-80 teams would cover enough time zones, with enough inventory.

Spring Ball only works if you expect none of your players to go to the NFL. That transition to Spring College ball to Fall NFL ball would not give players enough time to rest and heal. Most of our rookies would have their ACLs explode by week 3 of the NFL season.

Exactly. Plus, why overload content with basketball wrapping up and baseball starting up at the same time?

Let's just drop football all together and play 6 on 6. It's a more streamlined version of football anyways. All the excitement of offense and defensive interceptions and none of the linemen.

I'd tune in to watch UCF vs USF in a 6 on 6.

We produce athletes that are more specialized. The 6v6 WRs would probably be just as competitive as college WRs on NFL draft board. I imagine their NFL combine scores would be ridiculous. 6v6 would focus more on cone drill skills and speed versus all that practice time spent blocking. All the NIL money can focus on a smaller team.

(07-27-2021 10:12 AM)NoQuarterBrigade Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 09:50 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  2 Worst case scenarios in my mind

Super Power 4 breakoff:
The absolute worst case scenario is that the Super Power 4 (expanded versions of the SEC, ACC, B1G, and PAC) break off from the NCAA and create their own league leaving the remaining G5 to create their own G5 playoff.

There is nothing the AAC could do because we don't have autonomy status. The autonomy group makes all the rules.

SEC breakoff:
If the SEC can poach Texas and OU... What's to stop them from eventually creating a 32 team NFL type league. If this next SEC payout dwarfs the payout the B1G, ACC, and PAC receive. The logical conclusion for the Ohio State and Clemson's of the world would say their conference mates are holding them back from maximum payout. In 10 years time the SEC might be able to poach Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson, FSU, Oregon, Arizona, Washington. 32 team SEC/NFL model to own all of college football. The ultimate SEC victory.

These would absolutely be the worst scenarios. And I really feel like the “A” scenario may happen. And I find it ironic that all of this started soon after an agreed upon 12 team playoff. Just another way to keep us all from any access. This has been talked about before. I wouldn’t be surprised. There may also be another scenario where there are only three super conferences, the SEC, Big 10, and ACC. Who knows what’s going to happen at this point and how it’s going to play out.

The CFP expansion model hasn't been finalized and I imagine realignment will have impacts on that. There is no way the 6 champion auto-bid model survives without 5 power conferences. It will likely move to 4 auto-bid champions and the rest are at large bids. We can still beat out the PAC for that 4th spot on occasion.

(07-27-2021 10:30 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 10:17 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 10:13 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 09:53 AM)mtmedlin Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 09:50 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  2 Worst case scenarios in my mind

Super Power 4 breakoff:
The absolute worst case scenario is that the Super Power 4 (expanded versions of the SEC, ACC, B1G, and PAC) break off from the NCAA and create their own league leaving the remaining G5 to create their own G5 playoff.

There is nothing the AAC could do because we don't have autonomy status. The autonomy group makes all the rules.

SEC breakoff:
If the SEC can poach Texas and OU... What's to stop them from eventually creating a 32 team NFL type league. If this next SEC payout dwarfs the payout the B1G, ACC, and PAC receive. The logical conclusion for the Ohio State and Clemson's of the world would say their conference mates are holding them back from maximum payout. In 10 years time the SEC might be able to poach Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson, FSU, Oregon, Arizona, Washington. 32 team SEC/NFL model to own all of college football. The ultimate SEC victory.

In that scenario, all that are left behind should seriously consider moving to Spring ball. New professional leagues have realized there is more money in the "off season" than competing head to head with the NFL.

If there is a break, then why not be the best alternative. Have the G5 move to spring. It would suck and forever lock us into a second tier, but its what would happen anyhow.

At a minimum I think it will be five power conferences. Just for inventory sake.75-80 teams would cover enough time zones, with enough inventory.

Spring Ball only works if you expect none of your players to go to the NFL. That transition to Spring College ball to Fall NFL ball would not give players enough time to rest and heal. Most of our rookies would have their ACLs explode by week 3 of the NFL season.

Exactly. Plus, why overload content with basketball wrapping up and baseball starting up at the same time?

Let's just drop football all together and play 6 on 6. It's a more streamlined version of football anyways. All the excitement of offense and defensive interceptions and none of the linemen.

I'd tune in to watch UCF vs USF in a 6 on 6.

We produce athletes that are more specialized. The 6v6 WRs would probably be just as competitive as college WRs on NFL draft board. I imagine their NFL combine scores would be ridiculous. 6v6 would focus more on cone drill skills and speed versus all that practice time spent blocking. All the NIL money can focus on a smaller team.

Wouldnt the NFL look down on 6v6 players? I would think it would be seen as "not real experience".

As far as the draft, our guys could be held out till next draft and get an extra 6 months of prep. Could be a way to integrate it and give our guys an advantage.

If we stay and go toe to toe with whatever breakaway entity they create, well just get hammered in the ratings and profits will drop.

I agree we have to do some gimmick to stay alive if the worst case happens. 6v6 we wouldnt even need stadiums. It would be closer to arena football... which I actually liked.

(07-27-2021 08:28 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  The worst-case scenario for the AAC is for it to lose a maximum number — whatever that might be — of its most valuable properties.

Let's throw out Navy and Wichita State for this exercise.

Most valuable (defined about 80 percent by football and men's hoops strength but with about 20 percent academics, endowments, budgets, locations and other sports as factors) by tiers:

Tier 1: Cincinnati and Houston

Tier 2 A: Memphis, SMU, UCF and USF

Tier 2 B: Temple, Tulane and Tulsa

Tier 4: East Carolina

Dazzle—if the AAC loses 3-4 they will all come from your Tiers 1 and 2.

If this is the case, I think we end up with a conference pecking order of:

1. SEC
2. Big 10
3. Pac 12, ACC
4. Big 12
5. MWC, AAC
6. C-USA, SBC, MAC

If the 6-6 Playoff happens, it’ll be about a 50/50 toss up for the the AAC to make the field.

Worst case is we lose our top 5 or six schools and are left with a shotgun pattern of 5 or 6 schools spread across half a continent that don’t really have any great strength that they can point to. We’ll be looking at a massive tv deal pay cut and won’t be able to sell being the P6 narrative any longer. At that point, we might not be able to rebuild anything that would be worth the travel required to keep everyone left together. It might be better to approach the SB and CUSA and look at reorganizing all 3 into regional conferences using the CUSA, AAC, and SB shells. You could create a northeast, southeast, southwest conference that at least provides for cheap travel and fun nearby opponents that might make for good rivalry games.

I’d say that’s the worst case scenario.

(07-27-2021 12:02 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Worst case is we lose our top 5 or six schools and are left with a shotgun pattern of 5 or 6 schools spread across half a continent that don’t really have any great strength that they can point to. We’ll be looking at a massive tv deal pay cut and won’t be able to sell being the P6 narrative any longer. At that point, we might not be able to rebuild anything that would be worth the travel required to keep everyone left together. It might be better to approach the SB and CUSA and look at reorganizing all 3 into regional conferences using the CUSA, AAC, and SB shells. You could create a northeast, southeast, southwest conference that at least provides for cheap travel and fun nearby opponents that might make for good rivalry games.

I’d say that’s the worst case scenario.

Yup, if we lose the right four, geography will suddenly turn to quite the issue as the replacements with value may not fit well to the map. At five or six it almost becomes a guarenteed issue. Not sure your solution would happen though. I could see the CUSA east schools try and make a run to pick off one or two AAC schools and seperate into their own conference. Not sure how it would all fall out then but adding say ECU and App St with one of the Florida schools give you a nice tight football conference that would probably end up AAC left over or MW in quality.

(07-27-2021 11:22 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 08:28 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  The worst-case scenario for the AAC is for it to lose a maximum number — whatever that might be — of its most valuable properties.

Let's throw out Navy and Wichita State for this exercise.

Most valuable (defined about 80 percent by football and men's hoops strength but with about 20 percent academics, endowments, budgets, locations and other sports as factors) by tiers:

Tier 1: Cincinnati and Houston

Tier 2 A: Memphis, SMU, UCF and USF

Tier 2 B: Temple, Tulane and Tulsa

Tier 4: East Carolina

Dazzle—if the AAC loses 3-4 they will all come from your Tiers 1 and 2.

If this is the case, I think we end up with a conference pecking order of:

1. SEC
2. Big 10
3. Pac 12, ACC
4. Big 12
5. MWC, AAC
6. C-USA, SBC, MAC

If the 6-6 Playoff happens, it’ll be about a 50/50 toss up for the the AAC to make the field.

Agree on all counts, FM.

(07-27-2021 09:51 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 07:46 PM)CougarTruth Wrote:  So there is apparently some potential upside for AAC here. What about potential downside and what could Aresco do to mitigate it?

Worse case IMO would be OU and TX to leave very soon, and for the L8 to take up to six AAC schools. If they take say Cincy, USF, UCF, Memphis, Houston and SMU, that would gut the AAC badly.

And I don't think there's anything that Aresco could do to stop it.

There's certainly nothing anyone could do to stop it, but why exactly would the B12 add 6 schools? It's always funny to read people advocate for things they'd never advocate their own conference to do. There's no compelling reason to go to 14 for the B12 with the available schools that would join, same as there's no reason for the AAC to go to 14 with the schools that would join. I've seen people mention going big for "stability" but that's not a thing that exists same as every AAC member would cut off their foot to join the B12 every B12 member would cut off their foot to now join one of the other power leagues. No number changes that, and same as none of the available AAC expansion candidates are going anywhere and will always be available if a need ever arises every AAC school will be waiting by the phone forever to join even a completely gutted B12 down the line. I'm happy to sig bet with anyone they do not add anymore teams than whatever number they end up losing, and I wouldn't be shocked if they went smaller and just got back to 9. Same thing I'd advocate the AAC do depending on the number of teams the league loses. 1 team and I wouldn't even consider adding anyone, and 2 teams I probably wouldn't add anyone either.

A lot of schools have been waiting for the Big 12 to be in this position. BYU, Boise State will keep them at 12. Cinn, Houston, UCF, Memphis gets it to 16. That blows the AAC out of the game.