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Worst Case Scenario for AAC?
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CougarTruth Offline
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Question Worst Case Scenario for AAC?
So there is apparently some potential upside for AAC here. What about potential downside and what could Aresco do to mitigate it?

One scenario would have Big 10 poach USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and Utah from PAC12 to form 18 team or more) super conference’s western division with Nebraska and say Kansas from Big 12.

That leaves Arizona, Arizona St, Oregon St, Washington St, Stanford, and Cal as Pac12 remnants. If they were to merge with the six remaining Big12 members (less Kansas and WVU) the resulting conference would be 12 members. Stay with me here. Then to match 16 schools like the other aforementioned conferences (Big10, SEC) they take BYU and Boise St., and say Houston, SMU, Colorado St or Air Force Academy.

That solidifies them as arguably the fourth best conference, and with Clemson having a bad year helping them potentially being arguably third best. Plus they stymie AAC growth potential- possibly terminally.

Does anyone else sit around and worry about worst case scenarios like this? Could Aresco strike in any fashion now to stifle this possibility?
(This post was last modified: 07-26-2021 08:09 PM by CougarTruth.)
07-26-2021 07:46 PM
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Cubanbull1 Offline
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RE: Worst Case Scenario for AAC?
The writing is on the wall.

Whether it happens now or down the road the SEC with this move has started a move that won’t stop. Big12 regardless of who they add will no longer match the other 4 conferences in payouts.

The BigTen, PAC and ACC will fall further behind the SEC once this move goes thru and the only way they can match SEC is by raiding each other of Big name programs.

I think the BigTen will be next and they will raid either PAC or ACC for their bigger names.

Already Clemson is complaining that the ACC can match the SEC money to keep them competitive to the top of SEC.

I see the BigTen and SEC becoming top leagues with 16-18 members maybe even separating from NCAA

And the rest becoming second tier or worse. Unfortunately all our schools will eventually be in the lower tiers.
07-26-2021 08:01 PM
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RE: Worst Case Scenario for AAC?
(07-26-2021 07:46 PM)CougarTruth Wrote:  So there is apparently some potential upside for AAC here. What about potential downside and what could Aresco do to mitigate it?

One scenario would have Big 10 poach USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and Utah from PAC12 to form 18 team or more) super conference’s western division with Nebraska and say Kansas from Big 12.

That leaves Arizona, Arizona St, Oregon St, Washington St, Stanford, and Cal as Pac12 remnants. If they were to merge with the six remaining Big12 members (less Kansas and WVU) the resulting conference would be 12 members. Stay with me here. Then to match 16 schools like the other aforementioned conferences (Big10, SEC) they take BYU and Boise St., and say Houston, SMU, Colorado St or Air Force Academy.

That solidifies them as arguably the fourth best conference, and with Clemson having a bad year helping them potentially being arguably third best. Plus they stymie AAC growth potential possibly terminally.

Does anyone else sit around and worry about worst case scenarios like this? Could Aresco strike in any fashion now to stifle this possibility?

Not for a second.
07-26-2021 08:01 PM
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rath v2.0 Online
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RE: Worst Case Scenario for AAC?
04-rock05-stirthepot05-ban
(07-26-2021 08:01 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  The writing is on the wall.

Whether it happens now or down the road the SEC with this move has started a move that won’t stop. Big12 regardless of who they add will no longer match the other 4 conferences in payouts.

The BigTen, PAC and ACC will fall further behind the SEC once this move goes thru and the only way they can match SEC is by raiding each other of Big name programs.

I think the BigTen will be next and they will raid either PAC or ACC for their bigger names.

Already Clemson is complaining that the ACC can match the SEC money to keep them competitive to the top of SEC.

I see the BigTen and SEC becoming top leagues with 16-18 members maybe even separating from NCAA

And the rest becoming second tier or worse. Unfortunately all our schools will eventually be in the lower tiers.

We agree on something.
07-26-2021 08:10 PM
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BcatMatt13 Online
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RE: Worst Case Scenario for AAC?
Worst case scenario for the AAC is for the Big Ten and PAC to stand pat. Could potentially lose 4 most “valuable” members which would result in a restructured deal with ESPN resulting in a lot less money and less exposure. Could then be looking at competition from the other 4 conferences for that last playoff auto spot (if the system actually happens).
07-26-2021 08:13 PM
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rath v2.0 Online
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RE: Worst Case Scenario for AAC?
(07-26-2021 08:13 PM)BcatMatt13 Wrote:  Worst case scenario for the AAC is for the Big Ten and PAC to stand pat. Could potentially lose 4 most “valuable” members which would result in a restructured deal with ESPN resulting in a lot less money and less exposure. Could then be looking at competition from the other 4 conferences for that last playoff auto spot (if the system actually happens).

Upside would be 40-70 million in exit fees to distribute.
07-26-2021 08:17 PM
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HiddenDragon Offline
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RE: Worst Case Scenario for AAC?
(07-26-2021 07:46 PM)CougarTruth Wrote:  So there is apparently some potential upside for AAC here. What about potential downside and what could Aresco do to mitigate it?

One scenario would have Big 10 poach USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and Utah from PAC12 to form 18 team or more) super conference’s western division with Nebraska and say Kansas from Big 12.

That leaves Arizona, Arizona St, Oregon St, Washington St, Stanford, and Cal as Pac12 remnants. If they were to merge with the six remaining Big12 members (less Kansas and WVU) the resulting conference would be 12 members. Stay with me here. Then to match 16 schools like the other aforementioned conferences (Big10, SEC) they take BYU and Boise St., and say Houston, SMU, Colorado St or Air Force Academy.

That solidifies them as arguably the fourth best conference, and with Clemson having a bad year helping them potentially being arguably third best. Plus they stymie AAC growth potential- possibly terminally.

Does anyone else sit around and worry about worst case scenarios like this? Could Aresco strike in any fashion now to stifle this possibility?

If you're talking about the current AAC remaining together then the worse case scenario would be what you just stated. The best case would be the Big 8 staying together and merging with those six PAC 12 schools leaving only two spots to get to 16. I think one spot would go to BYU but it's not a certainty. I think Cincinnati would be the AAC school that would get an invite if WVU is stays. If WVU leaves then I would think Houston would be the other choice from the AAC.

And yes I do believe the B1G will go after USC, UCLA, Oregon, Stanford, California, and Colorado. None of the the Big 12 schools will add value to the B1G who is trying to keep up and stay ahead of the SEC from a monetary perspective.
07-26-2021 08:48 PM
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Fishpro10987 Offline
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RE: Worst Case Scenario for AAC?
The AAC losing three or more schools is worst case scenario. P6 would be over. Losing 2 is even problematic.
07-27-2021 12:37 AM
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RE: Worst Case Scenario for AAC?
(07-27-2021 12:37 AM)Fishpro10987 Wrote:  The AAC losing three or more schools is worst case scenario. P6 would be over. Losing 2 is even problematic.

Could maybe lose one. Need to stay together if possible. I doubt it will happen though. I could see Aresco retiring if this goes too far south. All of the work to get it where it is today and if the conference loses a bunch of schools it wouldn’t surprise me if he retired. That’s the worst case scenario to me.
07-27-2021 01:00 AM
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Memphis Yankee Offline
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RE: Worst Case Scenario for AAC?
(07-27-2021 12:37 AM)Fishpro10987 Wrote:  The AAC losing three or more schools is worst case scenario. P6 would be over. Losing 2 is even problematic.

Either the AAC is the hunter or the AAC is done. Better hope that the B12 gets reduced to 3 teams for all the AAC teams to survive. If it only goes to 5, AAC teams will most likely be pushed out.

Sounds like all the conferences are going to trim the fat within each conference. Teams that don't make ESPN money are going to be eliminated. No more free-loaders. It is what it is.
07-27-2021 01:49 AM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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RE: Worst Case Scenario for AAC?
(07-27-2021 01:49 AM)Memphis Yankee Wrote:  
(07-27-2021 12:37 AM)Fishpro10987 Wrote:  The AAC losing three or more schools is worst case scenario. P6 would be over. Losing 2 is even problematic.

Either the AAC is the hunter or the AAC is done. Better hope that the B12 gets reduced to 3 teams for all the AAC teams to survive. If it only goes to 5, AAC teams will most likely be pushed out.

Sounds like all the conferences are going to trim the fat within each conference. Teams that don't make ESPN money are going to be eliminated. No more free-loaders. It is what it is.

I mean "done" is a relative term. Both leagues are going to exist after this, but both leagues are going to be less than they currently are. How much less in the AAC's case depends on if anyone else in the B12 can find homes. The AAC isn't going to end for the same reason the B12 isn't going to end, there aren't enough places for everyone to go that's a move up and no one in either league is moving down at the expense giving up the buyout money.
(This post was last modified: 07-27-2021 07:47 AM by b0ndsj0ns.)
07-27-2021 07:46 AM
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RE: Worst Case Scenario for AAC?
(07-26-2021 08:13 PM)BcatMatt13 Wrote:  Worst case scenario for the AAC is for the Big Ten and PAC to stand pat. Could potentially lose 4 most “valuable” members which would result in a restructured deal with ESPN resulting in a lot less money and less exposure. Could then be looking at competition from the other 4 conferences for that last playoff auto spot (if the system actually happens).

If that happens, and it could. The AAC had better do a great job on picking its added teams. I would consider only adding 3 for the 4 lost, If you do that you stay in current footprint. Or bite the bullet and try for Boise all sports, that would be a home run if they are there. grab 5 and try to take the head of the snake MWC and go back to 12.
07-27-2021 08:18 AM
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RE: Worst Case Scenario for AAC?
Worst case scenario for the AAC is losing Cincinnati.
07-27-2021 08:19 AM
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RE: Worst Case Scenario for AAC?
(07-27-2021 08:19 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Worst case scenario for the AAC is losing Cincinnati.

This guy clearly gets it.
07-27-2021 08:20 AM
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RE: Worst Case Scenario for AAC?
The worst-case scenario for the AAC is for it to lose a maximum number — whatever that might be — of its most valuable properties.

Let's throw out Navy and Wichita State for this exercise.

Most valuable (defined about 80 percent by football and men's hoops strength but with about 20 percent academics, endowments, budgets, locations and other sports as factors) by tiers:

Tier 1: Cincinnati and Houston

Tier 2 A: Memphis, SMU, UCF and USF

Tier 2 B: Temple, Tulane and Tulsa

Tier 4: East Carolina
(This post was last modified: 07-27-2021 08:33 AM by bill dazzle.)
07-27-2021 08:28 AM
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RE: Worst Case Scenario for AAC?
(07-26-2021 08:01 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  The writing is on the wall.

Whether it happens now or down the road the SEC with this move has started a move that won’t stop. Big12 regardless of who they add will no longer match the other 4 conferences in payouts.

The BigTen, PAC and ACC will fall further behind the SEC once this move goes thru and the only way they can match SEC is by raiding each other of Big name programs.

I think the BigTen will be next and they will raid either PAC or ACC for their bigger names.

Already Clemson is complaining that the ACC can match the SEC money to keep them competitive to the top of SEC.

I see the BigTen and SEC becoming top leagues with 16-18 members maybe even separating from NCAA

And the rest becoming second tier or worse. Unfortunately all our schools will eventually be in the lower tiers.

Lower tier in tv money sure, but we already are. As long as we have a conference in Division 1 and the playoff goes to 12 we can survive and grow. The AAC champ will have a good shot at the playoff every year.
07-27-2021 08:50 AM
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RE: Worst Case Scenario for AAC?
IMHO the worst-case scenario for the AAC would leave us with only 5 football members, most likely East Carolina, Navy, Tulane and Tulsa along with either Temple or SMU depending on how things pan out. I would assume at this point that Navy would leave, dropping the league down to 4 football playing members. Wichita would probably leave too, although I'm not sure exactly where they would prefer to go.

I'm not sure that core would be able to persuade anyone from joining aside from C-USA schools (who have a worse media deal than the Sun Belt and MAC) or independents like UConn and Liberty.
(This post was last modified: 07-27-2021 09:10 AM by Chappy.)
07-27-2021 09:10 AM
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RE: Worst Case Scenario for AAC?
(07-27-2021 08:19 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Worst case scenario for the AAC is losing Cincinnati.

because actually losing to cincy is infrequent.
07-27-2021 09:12 AM
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RE: Worst Case Scenario for AAC?
(07-27-2021 09:12 AM)shere khan Wrote:  
(07-27-2021 08:19 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Worst case scenario for the AAC is losing Cincinnati.

because actually losing to cincy is infrequent.

We will send you care packages when things get tough and we are all Eastside Jeffersons.

It’s going to be like having your spouse divorce you twice in 15 years for a different sugar mamma/daddy. Might make a good country song.
07-27-2021 09:30 AM
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RE: Worst Case Scenario for AAC?
Best case - Most of the AAC moves over to the new big 12 and we all get a pay raise and new interesting opponents.

Worst case - The New Big 12 holds together and takes 2 MWC/BYU and then 2 AAC. We lose two major teams and our perceived value decreases and ESPN comes to the table to reduce out payout. We end up adding 1 more team to get back to 10 and its someone that we all have to hold our nose to accept.
For all intents and purposes, our conference is demoted and we have no real long term path to success.
07-27-2021 09:35 AM
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