Talk about "ffs".

(07-14-2020 06:25 AM)cmufanatic Wrote:  ffs 40% of deaths were in nursing homes. The virus is highly contagious and deadly to the elderly and immunocomprimised most will be fine.

We know in excess of 10% of those infected in their 30's and over are at risk of dying without proper care, and if we let the epidemic rage unchecked we know that it will overwhelm our ICU capacity because we were teetering on the edge of that in NY, and are firmly on the path past that in several "re-open prematurely" states.

Quote: Looking out 4 months later we can see death stats and it has a similar death rate to the flu.

Describing 5 to 10 times the infection mortality rate as "similar" is an outright lie. Looking at the flu case mortality rate and comparing it to estimated Covid19 infection mortality rate just means someone is determined to fool themselves before repeating the lie.

Quote: in Michigan only 4 people have died from 0 to 19 years old. New study just released journal of pediatrics studying children in 4 countries new south wales, china switzerland and france show children are not spreading the disease thus proving schools need to open fully.

This is an example of the "see a study with a result I like, assume it is true, see a study with a result I don't like, ignore it" school of epidemiology.

All of the schools where all teachers, custodial staff, cooks, school bus drivers are under 20? No.

No children will have any serious long term health effects from catching the disease at school? We have NO idea. We cannot conceivably HAVE an idea what the 10 year and 20 years consequences are until 2030 and 2040.

Quote: Also new studies out showing a face covering ie bandana or other homemade cloth does nothing.

Cite the study, because there are ample studies by aerosol researchers that demonstrate that even dusk masks worn by an infected individual substantially reduces the spread of the disease, so given the spouting nonsense there is no reason to grant the benefit of the doubt that you are interpreting the study correctly.

Quote: Numbers in US are also much higher than other nations because we are testing more than other nations.

This is just the claim of the President, but it's well established that the claim is simply fabricated with no connection with reality. The simply fact is that there are a number of countries that test more and have fewer positive results, which categorically refutes the claim for anybody with the common sense to check claims from the White House against reality before believing them.

Quote: Lets also realize the tests are very flawed, high error rate.

Again, given your multiple fallacious claims, link to your source.

Quote: then throw in states using presumed cases and deaths and you can see how inflated the numbers are.

This is simply confirmation bias, since you are ignoring the multiple ways that multiple states are juking the stats down.

Quote: Again not discrediting the deaths or effects, highly contagious and deadly to elderly, again most will be fine ie 99.7%+ ok i am done

You finish with a claim that nobody can possibly know unless they have arrived in a time machine from twenty years in the future. So there is no reason to give your reassurances any weight when they require information that nobody will have for ten or twenty or more years.

You are just repeating the Pollyanna line, crafted by people who will be inconvenienced by the government taking action to prevent the epidemic from running out of control.

The story no one is talking about (but USA Today wrote) is the basketball tourney in Columbus. (A team of MAC alums was to compete).

Apparently they pulled it off using the 'bubble concept.' That speaks well of the NBA doing the same.

EDIT: Here is the story...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/co...445486002/

New York currently has a list of about 20-24 states that if you travel to or from, you need to quarantine for 14 days. Currently, Ohio is on that list. If Ohio doesn't come off the list prior to the Fall, I don't see how Buffalo will be able to compete against other MAC schools. This would affect any travel by UB teams to Ohio, but would also affect any Ohio school that comes into New York.

Goodbye Fall sports...it was nice knowing you.

Moderna is the first vaccine that has made it to phase 3 of clinical trials. Not that it would complete trials and be mass produced in enough time to save the fall season, but the spring should be a possibility.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/14/mode...-response/

(07-15-2020 10:26 PM)shankapotamus1 Wrote:  

(07-15-2020 04:43 PM)george14 Wrote:  

(07-15-2020 11:08 AM)shankapotamus1 Wrote:  

(07-15-2020 08:34 AM)george14 Wrote:  Experts have literally told us one thing, then said the opposite, now are going back to point #1.

Exactly, it's called the scientific method.

That argument doesn't make sense. I'm simply saying there have been so many contradictions, I'm not sure saying "trust the experts" is that strong of an argument.

So you'd rather trust Chuck Woolery?

You are making so many straw man arguments it's hard to follow.

I simply said "trusting the experts" is not the be-all end-all argument since there is so much conflicting evidence. That's all. Good day.

(07-16-2020 05:52 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  Talk about "ffs".
[quote='cmufanatic' pid='16903204' dateline='1594725909'] ffs 40% of deaths were in nursing homes. The virus is highly contagious and deadly to the elderly and immunocomprimised most will be fine.

We know in excess of 10% of those infected in their 30's and over are at risk of dying without proper care, and if we let the epidemic rage unchecked we know that it will overwhelm our ICU capacity because we were teetering on the edge of that in NY, and are firmly on the path past that in several "re-open prematurely" states.

Quote: Looking out 4 months later we can see death stats and it has a similar death rate to the flu.

Describing 5 to 10 times the infection mortality rate as "similar" is an outright lie. Looking at the flu case mortality rate and comparing it to estimated Covid19 infection mortality rate just means someone is determined to fool themselves before repeating the lie.

Quote: in Michigan only 4 people have died from 0 to 19 years old. New study just released journal of pediatrics studying children in 4 countries new south wales, china switzerland and france show children are not spreading the disease thus proving schools need to open fully.

This is an example of the "see a study with a result I like, assume it is true, see a study with a result I don't like, ignore it" school of epidemiology.

All of the schools where all teachers, custodial staff, cooks, school bus drivers are under 20? No.

No children will have any serious long term health effects from catching the disease at school? We have NO idea. We cannot conceivably HAVE an idea what the 10 year and 20 years consequences are until 2030 and 2040.

Quote: Also new studies out showing a face covering ie bandana or other homemade cloth does nothing.

Cite the study, because there are ample studies by aerosol researchers that demonstrate that even dusk masks worn by an infected individual substantially reduces the spread of the disease, so given the spouting nonsense there is no reason to grant the benefit of the doubt that you are interpreting the study correctly.

Quote: Numbers in US are also much higher than other nations because we are testing more than other nations.

This is just the claim of the President, but it's well established that the claim is simply fabricated with no connection with reality. The simply fact is that there are a number of countries that test more and have fewer positive results, which categorically refutes the claim for anybody with the common sense to check claims from the White House against reality before believing them.

Quote: Lets also realize the tests are very flawed, high error rate.

Again, given your multiple fallacious claims, link to your source.

Quote: then throw in states using presumed cases and deaths and you can see how inflated the numbers are.

This is simply confirmation bias, since you are ignoring the multiple ways that multiple states are juking the stats down.

Quote: Again not discrediting the deaths or effects, highly contagious and deadly to elderly, again most will be fine ie 99.7%+ ok i am done

You finish with a claim that nobody can possibly know unless they have arrived in a time machine from twenty years in the future. So there is no reason to give your reassurances any weight when they require information that nobody will have for ten or twenty or more years.

You are just repeating the Pollyanna line, crafted by people who will be inconvenienced by the government taking action to prevent the epidemic from running out of control.
[/quo

i do not have a choice i am treating patients all day while long 2 inches from their face. I have seen people go blind because of the shutdown it is obscene. This is the only time in history the healthy were told what to do and to remain home. The whole purpose of lockdown was to take the strain off hospitals. Then we were told stay home stay safe, then stay home keep others safe, then only symptomatic need a mask, then everyone needs a mask. The goalposts are constantly moving.
"We know in excess of 10% of those infected in their 30's and over are at risk of dying without proper care"[/b]
would love a stat on this
b]Cite the study, because there are ample studies by aerosol researchers that demonstrate that even dusk masks worn by an infected individual substantially reduces the spread of the disease, so given the spouting nonsense there is no reason to grant the benefit of the doubt that you are interpreting the study correctly[/b].
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspect...sound-data

one of many. There are also research papers showing homemade masks do not even filter a flu virus which is larger than the covid virus
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10....1001500204

"No children will have [b]any serious long term health effects from catching the disease at school? We have NO idea. We cannot conceivably HAVE an idea what the 10 year and 20 years consequences are until 2030 and 2040" [/b]

just like anything so why worry what are the alternatives, keep kids locked down, no school, no sports.

I am not making this political mate. I am a front line worker seeing 15-20 patients a day. I have analyzed data and stats until kingdom come. The data shows this mostly affects the elderly and immuno-deficient, ofc there are exceptions. I have to be at work for my patients and i dont have a choice, i cannot live in fear and I do not appreciate the spread of misinformation. Many are clearly scared to even venture out in public and it is sad MSM has done this. We are also seeing rampant false positive numbers coming out of many states. Example in florida many counties reporting 100% positive tests. Statistically impossible. There are so many red flags. Just my 2 cents. The virus will be around a long time. Hopefully a proven therapy will be available soon. I am not one to rush into a vaccine so early. It normally takes years of development and a rushed vaccine scares me. stay safe bud and everyone else

(07-16-2020 12:10 PM)cmufanatic Wrote:  one of many. There are also research papers showing homemade masks do not even filter a flu virus which is larger than the covid virus
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10....1001500204

It is the spread of aerosols containing the virus that is the key. Catch the aerosol, trap the virus. Reduce the spread of the aerosols, reduce both the volume and persistence of aerosol in the air and reduce the risk that someone will be infected.

Indeed, recent evidence suggests that the lower the exposure to the virus that leads to an infection, the greater the likelihood of an asymptomatic case. If that research proves out, it would imply that masks worn by those who are infectious before or without being symptomatic can not only reduce the numbers of people who are infected, they can also save lives among the smaller percentage of people who catch the infection from those people.

The facts are simple. The industrial countries where people wear masks, the countries where there was a real lockdown, the countries that worked to make sure that testing capabilities, tracking capabilities and critical hospital supplies would all be available when the lockdown was over ... all of those countries have a small fraction of the US rates.

The US is the only industrial country in the world with this level of difficulty in coping with the epidemic. It is also the only industrial country with this degree of non-compliance with the best current advice of researchers to wear masks.

This is July. The fact that there was a bewildering and confusing series of messages coming out in March and April is not something that can be pointed to in mid July as a reason to ignore the much better informed advice that has been proven to work in every large industrial economy around the world outside of the United States.

(07-16-2020 12:10 PM)cmufanatic Wrote:  

(07-16-2020 05:52 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  Talk about "ffs".
[quote='cmufanatic' pid='16903204' dateline='1594725909'] ffs 40% of deaths were in nursing homes. The virus is highly contagious and deadly to the elderly and immunocomprimised most will be fine.

We know in excess of 10% of those infected in their 30's and over are at risk of dying without proper care, and if we let the epidemic rage unchecked we know that it will overwhelm our ICU capacity because we were teetering on the edge of that in NY, and are firmly on the path past that in several "re-open prematurely" states.

Quote: Looking out 4 months later we can see death stats and it has a similar death rate to the flu.

Describing 5 to 10 times the infection mortality rate as "similar" is an outright lie. Looking at the flu case mortality rate and comparing it to estimated Covid19 infection mortality rate just means someone is determined to fool themselves before repeating the lie.

Quote: in Michigan only 4 people have died from 0 to 19 years old. New study just released journal of pediatrics studying children in 4 countries new south wales, china switzerland and france show children are not spreading the disease thus proving schools need to open fully.

This is an example of the "see a study with a result I like, assume it is true, see a study with a result I don't like, ignore it" school of epidemiology.

All of the schools where all teachers, custodial staff, cooks, school bus drivers are under 20? No.

No children will have any serious long term health effects from catching the disease at school? We have NO idea. We cannot conceivably HAVE an idea what the 10 year and 20 years consequences are until 2030 and 2040.

Quote: Also new studies out showing a face covering ie bandana or other homemade cloth does nothing.

Cite the study, because there are ample studies by aerosol researchers that demonstrate that even dusk masks worn by an infected individual substantially reduces the spread of the disease, so given the spouting nonsense there is no reason to grant the benefit of the doubt that you are interpreting the study correctly.

Quote: Numbers in US are also much higher than other nations because we are testing more than other nations.

This is just the claim of the President, but it's well established that the claim is simply fabricated with no connection with reality. The simply fact is that there are a number of countries that test more and have fewer positive results, which categorically refutes the claim for anybody with the common sense to check claims from the White House against reality before believing them.

Quote: Lets also realize the tests are very flawed, high error rate.

Again, given your multiple fallacious claims, link to your source.

Quote: then throw in states using presumed cases and deaths and you can see how inflated the numbers are.

This is simply confirmation bias, since you are ignoring the multiple ways that multiple states are juking the stats down.

Quote: Again not discrediting the deaths or effects, highly contagious and deadly to elderly, again most will be fine ie 99.7%+ ok i am done

You finish with a claim that nobody can possibly know unless they have arrived in a time machine from twenty years in the future. So there is no reason to give your reassurances any weight when they require information that nobody will have for ten or twenty or more years.

You are just repeating the Pollyanna line, crafted by people who will be inconvenienced by the government taking action to prevent the epidemic from running out of control.
[/quo

i do not have a choice i am treating patients all day while long 2 inches from their face. I have seen people go blind because of the shutdown it is obscene. This is the only time in history the healthy were told what to do and to remain home. The whole purpose of lockdown was to take the strain off hospitals. Then we were told stay home stay safe, then stay home keep others safe, then only symptomatic need a mask, then everyone needs a mask. The goalposts are constantly moving.
"We know in excess of 10% of those infected in their 30's and over are at risk of dying without proper care"[/b]
would love a stat on this
b]Cite the study, because there are ample studies by aerosol researchers that demonstrate that even dusk masks worn by an infected individual substantially reduces the spread of the disease, so given the spouting nonsense there is no reason to grant the benefit of the doubt that you are interpreting the study correctly[/b].
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspect...sound-data

one of many. There are also research papers showing homemade masks do not even filter a flu virus which is larger than the covid virus
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10....1001500204

"No children will have [b]any serious long term health effects from catching the disease at school? We have NO idea. We cannot conceivably HAVE an idea what the 10 year and 20 years consequences are until 2030 and 2040" [/b]

just like anything so why worry what are the alternatives, keep kids locked down, no school, no sports.

I am not making this political mate. I am a front line worker seeing 15-20 patients a day. I have analyzed data and stats until kingdom come. The data shows this mostly affects the elderly and immuno-deficient, ofc there are exceptions. I have to be at work for my patients and i dont have a choice, i cannot live in fear and I do not appreciate the spread of misinformation. Many are clearly scared to even venture out in public and it is sad MSM has done this. We are also seeing rampant false positive numbers coming out of many states. Example in florida many counties reporting 100% positive tests. Statistically impossible. There are so many red flags. Just my 2 cents. The virus will be around a long time. Hopefully a proven therapy will be available soon. I am not one to rush into a vaccine so early. It normally takes years of development and a rushed vaccine scares me. stay safe bud and everyone else

Did you read the sources you provided? One is a commentary, that has since been amended and the other is a study of masks in conditions simulating a mild dust storm. They challenged the mask for 30 MINUTES! Of course they did not filter the load efficiently. Still have not seen evidence that COVID-19 is smaller than the influenza virus.

(07-17-2020 02:23 PM)shankapotamus1 Wrote:  Did you read the sources you provided? One is a commentary, that has since been amended and the other is a study of masks in conditions simulating a mild dust storm. They challenged the mask for 30 MINUTES! Of course they did not filter the load efficiently. Still have not seen evidence that COVID-19 is smaller than the influenza virus.

Note that the "small particles" referred to in the article I referred to above are aerosols, not free floating virus particles ... when we breath and speak, there will be aerosols in our breath in the pm0.5 and pm2.5 range as well as in the pm10 range and up. The dust masks ONLY catch the larger aerosols.

But note that being larger, the large aerosols also have a larger viral load. In hot and dry climates especially there can be an issue in the larger aerosols drying out and so concentrating the viral load ... and as they dry out and become smaller, they can float further in the air before settling to the ground.

If the small aerosols are the source of 30% of infections by aerosols and aerosols the source of 80% of infections, then that is a much higher infection risk for the dust mask than a N95 or KN95 mask which filters pm0.5 and pm2.5 aerosols ... but for a R0 of around 2.5 without any measures, retaining 24% of the infection risk is an R0 of 0.6, which is a not a growing case rate.

This is not ebola. While we may be aiming for a 0% infection rate among high risk populations, so long as Americans would all wear masks in public, regularly and thoroughly wash hands, and have effective test and trace systems with sufficiently fast turn around times, then based on the experience of other high income industrial economies, it seems very likely that the epidemic could be under control in 4-8 weeks.

The big unknown is when America might be in a position to do that. 4-8 weeks would be late August to late September at this point, but with no sign in sight of the country ADOPTING proven effective policies on a national basis, that seems likely to keep on sliding, week by week.

https://www.si.com/college/2020/07/16/tr...all-season

I've lost hope in a 2020 college football season. I don't see how you can ask a bunch of 18-21 year old unpaid student athletes to take the risk, especially considering only 2% or so will make it to the pro leagues. Still crossing my fingers that the NFL can make it work this year though.

The SWAC cancels fall sports, thereby cancelling Miami's home game against Arkansas-Pine Bluff.

(07-20-2020 08:45 AM)BobcatEngineer Wrote:  I've lost hope in a 2020 college football season. I don't see how you can ask a bunch of 18-21 year old unpaid student athletes to take the risk, especially considering only 2% or so will make it to the pro leagues. Still crossing my fingers that the NFL can make it work this year though.

I'm sure the athletes mostly want to play, but it's hard for me to endorse them risking possible long term lung damage etc. to play unpaid. I would think the top players especially should be very wary since this is potentially their livelihoods at stake.

(07-20-2020 09:24 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  The SWAC cancels fall sports, thereby cancelling Miami's home game against Arkansas-Pine Bluff.

Yeah, OU lost their home opener against North Carolina Central due to the MEAC cancelling fall sports.

(07-21-2020 10:50 AM)wmubroncopilot Wrote:  

(07-20-2020 08:45 AM)BobcatEngineer Wrote:  I've lost hope in a 2020 college football season. I don't see how you can ask a bunch of 18-21 year old unpaid student athletes to take the risk, especially considering only 2% or so will make it to the pro leagues. Still crossing my fingers that the NFL can make it work this year though.

I'm sure the athletes mostly want to play, but it's hard for me to endorse them risking possible long term lung damage etc. to play unpaid. I would think the top players especially should be very wary since this is potentially their livelihoods at stake.

Maybe moving college football to the spring is the better option.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Brett_McMurph...0466786307

Toledo HC has Covid

The Northern Illinois AD seems doubtful we will play football this year, although no decision has been made yet.

https://www.dailyherald.com/sports/20200...all-season

(07-21-2020 05:03 PM)BobcatEngineer Wrote:  Maybe moving college football to the spring is the better option.

From a selfish fan stand point, 24+ games of #MACtion in 2021 sounds great to me!

(07-17-2020 09:21 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(07-16-2020 12:10 PM)cmufanatic Wrote:  one of many. There are also research papers showing homemade masks do not even filter a flu virus which is larger than the covid virus
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10....1001500204

It is the spread of aerosols containing the virus that is the key. Catch the aerosol, trap the virus. Reduce the spread of the aerosols, reduce both the volume and persistence of aerosol in the air and reduce the risk that someone will be infected.

Indeed, recent evidence suggests that the lower the exposure to the virus that leads to an infection, the greater the likelihood of an asymptomatic case. If that research proves out, it would imply that masks worn by those who are infectious before or without being symptomatic can not only reduce the numbers of people who are infected, they can also save lives among the smaller percentage of people who catch the infection from those people.

The facts are simple. The industrial countries where people wear masks, the countries where there was a real lockdown, the countries that worked to make sure that testing capabilities, tracking capabilities and critical hospital supplies would all be available when the lockdown was over ... all of those countries have a small fraction of the US rates.

The US is the only industrial country in the world with this level of difficulty in coping with the epidemic. It is also the only industrial country with this degree of non-compliance with the best current advice of researchers to wear masks.

This is July. The fact that there was a bewildering and confusing series of messages coming out in March and April is not something that can be pointed to in mid July as a reason to ignore the much better informed advice that has been proven to work in every large industrial economy around the world outside of the United States.

I just have to say, the comment above about the US being the worst industrialized nation in terms of handling Covid is false. In terms of deaths as a percentage of the population, the US is barely the 10th or 11th worse. Sweden, Italy, Spain and Britain are just a few where the total per capital deaths are worse than the US.

I agree that we should wear masks to decrease the odds. A study that came out a couple weeks ago pegged mask use in the US at 60%. The highest mask usage in Europe was 80-85% with some European nations much lower.

I work closely with a Swedish company. They have virtually no mask usage. Of course they have lost 5700 lives out of a population of 10.2 million people. Ohio has only lost 3300 people out of a population of 11.7 million. So this supports taking steps to be careful - no doubt.

One last comment - you are correct that the flu is less deadly than Covid. Of course, a closer look at the death rate by age group shows that Covid is very nasty for older people - we all know this now. What is notable is that the flu is significantly more deadly for young people than Covid. You can scream all you want about how we are too early to say that - no way - we have plenty of data to support that and it is virtually unquestioned in the medical community. Again, Covid is nasty and a real problem, but shutting down young people from being active in their education and sports is a complete overreaction. Remember - you said it - Covid is 5-10 times deadlier than the flu - but even you know that is at least cut in half for the younger half of the population. You have never taken the position that we shut things down for the flu - even in years that the strain was worse than usual (in 2017, we lost 82k people, mostly in the 4 months of winter). So please consider that 5 times something you ignored is not very much - 5x nothing is not a huge wave of death. Calm down and toughen up - I believe when books are written 5 years from now, we will have new ways to describe chicken littles like we see today.

I think the issue for young people is very rarely death but it seems to be a nasty one to kick for a lot of people. Months for some.