(10-14-2019 08:31 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  Yeah the AAC is in bad shape for the NY6. SMU's the only undefeated team left and I just flat out don't think there's much of a shot they can get thru their remaining games against Temple, Memphis, Navy, and Tulane, which are all probably better teams than that TCU team they beat. If they actually could get thru that and then beat lets say Cincy in the title game I'd argue till I was blue in the face they deserved the game over Boise even if Boise was also undefeated, but I'd still expect Boise on just name value to get it. An undefeated Boise will absolutely get it over any 1 loss AAC champ, and I think an undefeated App State would get it over any 2 loss AAC champ (which is what I'm expecting at this point). I expect the AAC to keep 2-3 teams ranked in the top 25 over the course of the season among the group of 7 really good teams they have, but I expect it to cycle as they cannibalize each other and none are going to escape unscathed.

(10-14-2019 09:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 08:31 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  Yeah the AAC is in bad shape for the NY6. SMU's the only undefeated team left and I just flat out don't think there's much of a shot they can get thru their remaining games against Temple, Memphis, Navy, and Tulane, which are all probably better teams than that TCU team they beat.

First, someone probably coulda won a lot of money if they were willing to bet that SMU would be the last unbeaten AAC team left.

Second, I think you are way too pessimistic. App State is a pesky presence, but bottom line is a once-beaten AAC champ is likely to get the NY6 bid over them, as they have little name value and a soft schedule **.

There is really just one threat to the AAC getting the NY6 slot, and that's unbeaten Boise of course. If Boise runs the table, they will likely get the spot.

But Boise is not 2001 Miami, they are a pretty good team and that's all. The MW is a tough conference so you can't just say they are favorites in all their games, because in a tough conference there is a cumulative effect.

Overall, I think Boise has a 25% chance to go unbeaten, meaning the AAC has a 75% chance to get the G5 bid.


** I will be tickled if the NY6 slot does come down to a once-beaten AAC champ vs an unbeaten App State. It will be hilarious watching all those AAC fans who for two years ranted that UCF deserved a playoff spot over once-beaten P5 teams because "UCF won all their games and if you win all your games you should be in!" suddenly turn face and argue for SOS, toughness of conference, etc. in favor of their AAC champ.

(10-14-2019 12:19 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  An undefeated App State would have wins over North Carolina AND South Carolina.

Can any AAC team top that?

(10-14-2019 01:05 PM)Fthechips Wrote:  How is Georgia State that far ahead of WMU who completely embarrassed them?

They played more games than just each other. And, GA State has the win at Tenn.

(10-14-2019 04:43 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 04:31 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 04:25 PM)Chappy Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 04:18 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 04:05 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  1. Temple has wins over Georgia Tech and Maryland. However they have a bad loss (Buffalo).
2. Memphis has a win over Ole Miss and Temple, still have to play undefeated SMU, Top 25 Tulane, Top 25 Cincinnati, and Houston.
3. SMU is undefeated, has beaten TCU and still has to play Temple, Houston, Navy and Tulane.
4. Cincinnati beat UCLA and UCF, still to play Temple and Memphis.
5. Tulane still to play Memphis, Navy, Temple, UCF and SMU.

In other words, if an AAC team comes out undefeated (SMU) or one loss, they will have a resume of more quality opposition than Appy State and possibly two or more wins better than UNC and South Carolina.

The Citadel beat Ga Tech. Maryland is a semi-ok win. But Temple lost to Buffalo. Buffalo is 2-4. Nope, not above an undefeated App State
Memphis would have one P5 win that is not nearly as good as either USC or UNC. Nope, not above undefeated App State
SMU - if undefeated, would be likely above App State on conference rep alone. TCU is rated about the same as either UNC or USC, but a one loss SMU would be below ASU
Cincy's "Big Win" is over a team barely in the top 100
Tulane's big win is what? Missouri State? FIU?

Going off Massey Composite rankings, Cincinnati (16), SMU (20), UCF (28), Memphis (29), Tulane (31), and Navy (33) are all ranked higher than South Carolina (38) and North Carolina (43) and Temple (50) is not far behind.

Whomever wins the American could have several wins better than South Carolina and North Carolina in conference play, depending how all these teams finish the season.

I'm guessing he's putting zero stock in AAC wins meaning anything, but yeah anyone who gets thru the AAC with even 1 loss is going to have to beat probably 3 teams in conference rated higher than those 2, and maybe more.

Conference wins are a closed feedback loop - the same loop that always benefits the SEC (well, we beat each other up, so we are all good).

As stated above, undefeated SMU will get in ahead of undefeated App State, in part because of an overall tougher schedule.

It will be hard to deny App though, if they are the only undefeated G5 team, especially since they would have wins over two P5 teams, including the team that just took out one of the MNC contenders.

2016 proved that the CFP committee is willing to give AAC teams credit for quality wins in-conference.
Undefeated WMU had wins over Northwestern and Illinois. Illinois was low-ranked (in the 80s or 90s) but Northwestern was right where UNC is now. Leading into the conference championship games, Kirby Hocutt talked about TWO loss Navy being able to overtake WMU on the basis of the CFP committee valuing quality wins over Houston, Tulsa, and Memphis. Navy had beaten a down Notre Dame, but that wasn't even mentioned by the CFP committee chair - just quality wins over AAC teams.
App State has some recognition advantage over that flash-in-the-pan WMU team, and Boise would definitely have cachet on their side. But that was a TWO loss AAC team, possibly jumping an undefeated team, much less a ONE loss AAC team with quality wins in conference better than any wins an undefeated App or Boise has.

(10-14-2019 07:27 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 04:43 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 04:31 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 04:25 PM)Chappy Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 04:18 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  The Citadel beat Ga Tech. Maryland is a semi-ok win. But Temple lost to Buffalo. Buffalo is 2-4. Nope, not above an undefeated App State
Memphis would have one P5 win that is not nearly as good as either USC or UNC. Nope, not above undefeated App State
SMU - if undefeated, would be likely above App State on conference rep alone. TCU is rated about the same as either UNC or USC, but a one loss SMU would be below ASU
Cincy's "Big Win" is over a team barely in the top 100
Tulane's big win is what? Missouri State? FIU?

Going off Massey Composite rankings, Cincinnati (16), SMU (20), UCF (28), Memphis (29), Tulane (31), and Navy (33) are all ranked higher than South Carolina (38) and North Carolina (43) and Temple (50) is not far behind.

Whomever wins the American could have several wins better than South Carolina and North Carolina in conference play, depending how all these teams finish the season.

I'm guessing he's putting zero stock in AAC wins meaning anything, but yeah anyone who gets thru the AAC with even 1 loss is going to have to beat probably 3 teams in conference rated higher than those 2, and maybe more.

Conference wins are a closed feedback loop - the same loop that always benefits the SEC (well, we beat each other up, so we are all good).

As stated above, undefeated SMU will get in ahead of undefeated App State, in part because of an overall tougher schedule.

It will be hard to deny App though, if they are the only undefeated G5 team, especially since they would have wins over two P5 teams, including the team that just took out one of the MNC contenders.

2016 proved that the CFP committee is willing to give AAC teams credit for quality wins in-conference.
Undefeated WMU had wins over Northwestern and Illinois. Illinois was low-ranked (in the 80s or 90s) but Northwestern was right where INC is now. Leading into the conference championship games, Kirby Hocutt talked about TWO loss Navy being able to overtake WMU on the basis of the CFP committee valuing quality wins over Houston, Tulsa, and Memphis. Navy had beaten a down Notre Dame, but that wasn't even mentioned by the CFP committee chair - just quality wins over AAC teams.
App State has some recognition advantage over that flash-in-the-pan WMU team, and Boise would definitely have cachet on their side. But that was a TWO loss AAC team, possibly jumping an undefeated team, much less a ONE loss AAC team with quality wins in conference better than any wins an undefeated App or Boise has.

In the end, they still would have picked WMU, rather than a two-loss AAC team. And App would have two wins in the mid 30's to 40, not one.

App State does have considerably more name recognition than WMU did

(10-14-2019 07:46 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 07:27 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 04:43 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 04:31 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 04:25 PM)Chappy Wrote:  Going off Massey Composite rankings, Cincinnati (16), SMU (20), UCF (28), Memphis (29), Tulane (31), and Navy (33) are all ranked higher than South Carolina (38) and North Carolina (43) and Temple (50) is not far behind.

Whomever wins the American could have several wins better than South Carolina and North Carolina in conference play, depending how all these teams finish the season.

I'm guessing he's putting zero stock in AAC wins meaning anything, but yeah anyone who gets thru the AAC with even 1 loss is going to have to beat probably 3 teams in conference rated higher than those 2, and maybe more.

Conference wins are a closed feedback loop - the same loop that always benefits the SEC (well, we beat each other up, so we are all good).

As stated above, undefeated SMU will get in ahead of undefeated App State, in part because of an overall tougher schedule.

It will be hard to deny App though, if they are the only undefeated G5 team, especially since they would have wins over two P5 teams, including the team that just took out one of the MNC contenders.

2016 proved that the CFP committee is willing to give AAC teams credit for quality wins in-conference.
Undefeated WMU had wins over Northwestern and Illinois. Illinois was low-ranked (in the 80s or 90s) but Northwestern was right where INC is now. Leading into the conference championship games, Kirby Hocutt talked about TWO loss Navy being able to overtake WMU on the basis of the CFP committee valuing quality wins over Houston, Tulsa, and Memphis. Navy had beaten a down Notre Dame, but that wasn't even mentioned by the CFP committee chair - just quality wins over AAC teams.
App State has some recognition advantage over that flash-in-the-pan WMU team, and Boise would definitely have cachet on their side. But that was a TWO loss AAC team, possibly jumping an undefeated team, much less a ONE loss AAC team with quality wins in conference better than any wins an undefeated App or Boise has.

In the end, they still would have picked WMU, rather than a two-loss AAC team. And App would have two wins in the mid 30's to 40, not one.

App State does have considerably more name recognition than WMU did

I agree that they still would have taken WMU over a two loss Navy. Undefeated vs two losses, yes.
But this conversation is about undefeated App State vs a one-loss AAC team. Only one loss, with multiple in conference wins better than wins over UNC and South Carolina? When those two probably WON'T finish ranked in the 40s?
My point about App State's recognition factor is that people still remember them winning in the Big House. WMU doesn't have that, and after a pre-Fleck 1-11 in '13 went a pedestrian 8-5 in both '14 and '15 without a "P5" win - their '16 season is a textbook definition of catching lightning in a bottle. Not their fault that NW was down and Illinois was way down in '16. Honestly SunBelt '19 is probably better than MAC '16, but that still doesn't make an undefeated App anywhere near a slam dunk over a one-loss champ of an AAC which is currently closer to the #3 conference than to any conference #7-#10, and therefore provides multiple quality wins for the committee to consider.

The question is going to be does the committee actually value the AAC as strongly as a lot of the computer systems and polls do? I suspect because of their inherent bias they probably don't. Right now in the coaches poll you have SMU, Cincy, and Temple ranked and in the AP you have SMU and Cincy ranked and Tulane the next team out. If the committee poll came out today I'd be stunned if anyone but SMU from the AAC was ranked in it. I fully suspect they never rank more than 1 AAC team at a time in their poll, which allows them to keep up the narrative that the reason they don't consider any non-P5 school is that they don't have to go thru the week in week out "grind" in conference.

Are you guys incapable of just waiting three weeks. This is nothing more than "mine is bigger than urs".

Florida State was overrated. Marshall was overrated. Boise State has not played or beaten anyone of significance yet. There is no reason that they deserve to be ranked where they are. SMU has two good wins but has no clue what defense means. If they ever play a team who has really good defensive backs and plays 3/4 they are going to get owned. Cincinnati got demolished and has no business in the top 25.

I'm all for the belief that teams get better as the season goes on and that's why this is pointless. All of these teams need to play 8-9 games before we know how truly good any of them are.

Right now no one knows how good any of these teams are.

(10-15-2019 09:56 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  Are you guys incapable of just waiting three weeks. This is nothing more than "mine is bigger than urs".

Florida State was overrated. Marshall was overrated. Boise State has not played or beaten anyone of significance yet. There is no reason that they deserve to be ranked where they are. SMU has two good wins but has no clue what defense means. If they ever play a team who has really good defensive backs and plays 3/4 they are going to get owned. Cincinnati got demolished and has no business in the top 25.

I'm all for the belief that teams get better as the season goes on and that's why this is pointless. All of these teams need to play 8-9 games before we know how truly good any of them are.

Right now no one knows how good any of these teams are.

I realize that you believe I (as a Cincinnati alum) am not being objective, but this OSU team would beat 97% of the teams in CFB by multiple TDs. They've already smoked several B10 teams. I don't root for OSU at all and I'll say this- they'll be playing in the CFP alongside your Crimson Tide this year.

(10-14-2019 12:19 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  An undefeated App State would have wins over North Carolina AND South Carolina.

Can any AAC team top that?

IF App St beats SC and wins out they would have the best wins of any G5. They probably wouldn't jump Boise (maybe should though) but should be ahead of SMU and certainly any one loss AAC team.

(10-13-2019 11:37 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  Impressed with APP St. ad the following schedule not a murderer's row. The AAC is going to be a long shot, if the team has one loss.

(10-15-2019 09:41 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  The question is going to be does the committee actually value the AAC as strongly as a lot of the computer systems and polls do? I suspect because of their inherent bias they probably don't. Right now in the coaches poll you have SMU, Cincy, and Temple ranked and in the AP you have SMU and Cincy ranked and Tulane the next team out. If the committee poll came out today I'd be stunned if anyone but SMU from the AAC was ranked in it. I fully suspect they never rank more than 1 AAC team at a time in their poll, which allows them to keep up the narrative that the reason they don't consider any non-P5 school is that they don't have to go thru the week in week out "grind" in conference.

AAC has finally reached the level the MWC was at for about 5 years straight before the big conference realignment.

Boise State of the WAC was a thorn in the MW’s non-AQ side. So get used to it, AAC fans. It’s all what being the tallest midget gets you.

(10-15-2019 09:41 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  The question is going to be does the committee actually value the AAC as strongly as a lot of the computer systems and polls do? I suspect because of their inherent bias they probably don't. Right now in the coaches poll you have SMU, Cincy, and Temple ranked and in the AP you have SMU and Cincy ranked and Tulane the next team out. If the committee poll came out today I'd be stunned if anyone but SMU from the AAC was ranked in it. I fully suspect they never rank more than 1 AAC team at a time in their poll, which allows them to keep up the narrative that the reason they don't consider any non-P5 school is that they don't have to go thru the week in week out "grind" in conference.

Right now, Massey has two AAC teams in the top 25 - Cincy at #16 and SMU at #20. The other G5s in the rankings are Boise at #12 and App State at #24.

I think if the CFP came out now, the AAC would get two in the top 25. The back-end of the P5 has been pretty weak, and the CFP has show an inclination to side with computers.

Remember, for all their alleged "inherent bias", the CFP has never come out with rankings that differ all that much from the computers. There are exactly zero cases in the past five years where an AAC team was denied something important, like the G5 spot in the NY6 or a CFP playoff spot, because the CFP committee said 'no' to the AAC team while computers were saying 'yes'.

(10-15-2019 10:10 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 09:56 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  Are you guys incapable of just waiting three weeks. This is nothing more than "mine is bigger than urs".

Florida State was overrated. Marshall was overrated. Boise State has not played or beaten anyone of significance yet. There is no reason that they deserve to be ranked where they are. SMU has two good wins but has no clue what defense means. If they ever play a team who has really good defensive backs and plays 3/4 they are going to get owned. Cincinnati got demolished and has no business in the top 25.

I'm all for the belief that teams get better as the season goes on and that's why this is pointless. All of these teams need to play 8-9 games before we know how truly good any of them are.

Right now no one knows how good any of these teams are.

I realize that you believe I (as a Cincinnati alum) am not being objective, but this OSU team would beat 97% of the teams in CFB by multiple TDs. They've already smoked several B10 teams. I don't root for OSU at all and I'll say this- they'll be playing in the CFP alongside your Crimson Tide this year.

Last year's Ohio State team was extremely good - they went 13-1, won the B1G, and then won their NY6 bowl.

We don't know yet if this current Ohio State team is better, or even as good. What we do probably know is that yes, like the last two Ohio State teams, they are likely NY6 quality for sure, and possibly CFP.

Thing is, they did waste Cincy 42-0. That helps in the computers because it helps Cincy's SOS. But from a human POV it hurts, because the CFP is likely to think "we've already seen Cincy play a NY6 quality team, and they got blasted, so why give them a second chance"? That, IMO, is gonna hurt if Cincy wins the AAC.

(10-15-2019 10:10 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 09:56 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  Are you guys incapable of just waiting three weeks. This is nothing more than "mine is bigger than urs".

Florida State was overrated. Marshall was overrated. Boise State has not played or beaten anyone of significance yet. There is no reason that they deserve to be ranked where they are. SMU has two good wins but has no clue what defense means. If they ever play a team who has really good defensive backs and plays 3/4 they are going to get owned. Cincinnati got demolished and has no business in the top 25.

I'm all for the belief that teams get better as the season goes on and that's why this is pointless. All of these teams need to play 8-9 games before we know how truly good any of them are.

Right now no one knows how good any of these teams are.

I realize that you believe I (as a Cincinnati alum) am not being objective, but this OSU team would beat 97% of the teams in CFB by multiple TDs. They've already smoked several B10 teams. I don't root for OSU at all and I'll say this- they'll be playing in the CFP alongside your Crimson Tide this year.

Ohio State is a great team. IMO they are a top 4 team.

But that does not excuse losing 42-0. Texas A&M is 3-3 and scored 28 on Alabama. Ole Miss is 3-4 and scored 31 on Alabama. FAU put up 21 on Ohio State.

If you have no bias than can you without a doubt say Cincinnati is better than Texas A&M? You aren't you just haven't played a tough schedule like Texas A&M. That's why I say Cincinnati has no business in the top 25. They aren't undefeated and they haven't beaten anyone except UCF who was also overrated.

Now there are two teams that have an argument IMO. SMU and App State. I'm 80% sure that both UNC and TCU are going to win at least 7 games this year. And both of those teams are undefeated which is hard to do no matter what conference you are in. If SMU beats Temple then SMU should be ahead of Boise State when the CFB playoff poll comes out.

(10-15-2019 11:13 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 10:10 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 09:56 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  Are you guys incapable of just waiting three weeks. This is nothing more than "mine is bigger than urs".

Florida State was overrated. Marshall was overrated. Boise State has not played or beaten anyone of significance yet. There is no reason that they deserve to be ranked where they are. SMU has two good wins but has no clue what defense means. If they ever play a team who has really good defensive backs and plays 3/4 they are going to get owned. Cincinnati got demolished and has no business in the top 25.

I'm all for the belief that teams get better as the season goes on and that's why this is pointless. All of these teams need to play 8-9 games before we know how truly good any of them are.

Right now no one knows how good any of these teams are.

I realize that you believe I (as a Cincinnati alum) am not being objective, but this OSU team would beat 97% of the teams in CFB by multiple TDs. They've already smoked several B10 teams. I don't root for OSU at all and I'll say this- they'll be playing in the CFP alongside your Crimson Tide this year.

Last year's Ohio State team was extremely good - they went 13-1, won the B1G, and then won their NY6 bowl.

We don't know yet if this current Ohio State team is better, or even as good. What we do probably know is that yes, like the last two Ohio State teams, they are likely NY6 quality for sure, and possibly CFP.

Thing is, they did waste Cincy 42-0. That helps in the computers because it helps Cincy's SOS. But from a human POV it hurts, because the CFP is likely to think "we've already seen Cincy play a NY6 quality team, and they got blasted, so why give them a second chance"? That, IMO, is gonna hurt if Cincy wins the AAC.

Unfortunately I agree.

The problem with Cincinnati is that they have enough talent to compete at a G5 level but not at the top level and beat teams like Ohio State.

Even though UCF is 4-2 I think UCF does have the talent to put up a fight with just about every team in the country. UCF unfortunately just had very bad luck having Milton go down. And then having Mack go down at the start of this season. That freshman QB they have isn't ready to be a starter.

(10-15-2019 11:32 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 10:10 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 09:56 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  Are you guys incapable of just waiting three weeks. This is nothing more than "mine is bigger than urs".

Florida State was overrated. Marshall was overrated. Boise State has not played or beaten anyone of significance yet. There is no reason that they deserve to be ranked where they are. SMU has two good wins but has no clue what defense means. If they ever play a team who has really good defensive backs and plays 3/4 they are going to get owned. Cincinnati got demolished and has no business in the top 25.

I'm all for the belief that teams get better as the season goes on and that's why this is pointless. All of these teams need to play 8-9 games before we know how truly good any of them are.

Right now no one knows how good any of these teams are.

I realize that you believe I (as a Cincinnati alum) am not being objective, but this OSU team would beat 97% of the teams in CFB by multiple TDs. They've already smoked several B10 teams. I don't root for OSU at all and I'll say this- they'll be playing in the CFP alongside your Crimson Tide this year.

Ohio State is a great team. IMO they are a top 4 team.

But that does not excuse losing 42-0. Texas A&M is 3-3 and scored 28 on Alabama. Ole Miss is 3-4 and scored 31 on Alabama. FAU put up 21 on Ohio State.

Very good points - heck both Indiana and FAU lost by fewer points to Ohio State than did Cincy and nobody is touting them for the top 25.

And three of Cincy's four wins are against teams ranked 77, 93, and 99 in the computer composite.

It is often discussed that SOS bias hurts the G5 schools, but this could well be a case where it is helping. Cincy's soft schedule has allowed them to rack up wins and hence a gaudy record, which is being valued over some P5, like TAMU, that have played withering schedules.

I've heard TAMU mentioned a lot as the "most disappointing team in the country". But, they've lost to Alabama, Clemson, and Auburn. Did anyone seriously think they were going to beat Alabama or Clemson? I guess many thought they would beat Auburn, so that's the one game they should have won that they lost. But seriously, losing to *Auburn* makes you the most disappointing team in America?

The only way TAMU is disappointing AT ALL is if you thought they were a top 10 team. I sure didn't.

(10-15-2019 10:56 AM)fresnofanatic Wrote:  

(10-13-2019 11:37 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  Impressed with APP St. ad the following schedule not a murderer's row. The AAC is going to be a long shot, if the team has one loss.

(10-15-2019 09:41 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  The question is going to be does the committee actually value the AAC as strongly as a lot of the computer systems and polls do? I suspect because of their inherent bias they probably don't. Right now in the coaches poll you have SMU, Cincy, and Temple ranked and in the AP you have SMU and Cincy ranked and Tulane the next team out. If the committee poll came out today I'd be stunned if anyone but SMU from the AAC was ranked in it. I fully suspect they never rank more than 1 AAC team at a time in their poll, which allows them to keep up the narrative that the reason they don't consider any non-P5 school is that they don't have to go thru the week in week out "grind" in conference.

AAC has finally reached the level the MWC was at for about 5 years straight before the big conference realignment.

Boise State of the WAC was a thorn in the MW’s non-AQ side. So get used to it, AAC fans. It’s all what being the tallest midget gets you.

Achieved five years ago?

Sorry, but as a Fresno fan you have to acknowledge the BS of this statement lol. The MWC never really achieved anything because it never had the consistency the AAC has. BYU, TCU, and Utah all had their foot out the door before Fresno, Nevada, San Jose, and Boise State joined.

There may have been 1 season where the MWC wasn't Boise State and the other kids. By 2013 Utah, BYU, and TCU were gone. And Boise State was flirting with the Big East.

Edit: Actually I was wrong. Boise State never even got to be in the MWC when it had Utah, TCU, and BYU. When they joined Utah and BYU had already bolted.

I think the MWC in 2010 had three very good teams. But overall the AAC is much better. This season I see six teams that can go toe to toe with most P5 teams.

1. SMU
2. Tulane
3. Cincinnati
4. UCF
5. Memphis
6. Navy

Not to mention unlike the MWC all of these teams are in big media markets. I don't think any of them are top 15 teams but we have to give the AAC credit. They put together a very good conference.

(10-15-2019 11:52 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 10:56 AM)fresnofanatic Wrote:  

(10-13-2019 11:37 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  Impressed with APP St. ad the following schedule not a murderer's row. The AAC is going to be a long shot, if the team has one loss.

(10-15-2019 09:41 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  The question is going to be does the committee actually value the AAC as strongly as a lot of the computer systems and polls do? I suspect because of their inherent bias they probably don't. Right now in the coaches poll you have SMU, Cincy, and Temple ranked and in the AP you have SMU and Cincy ranked and Tulane the next team out. If the committee poll came out today I'd be stunned if anyone but SMU from the AAC was ranked in it. I fully suspect they never rank more than 1 AAC team at a time in their poll, which allows them to keep up the narrative that the reason they don't consider any non-P5 school is that they don't have to go thru the week in week out "grind" in conference.

AAC has finally reached the level the MWC was at for about 5 years straight before the big conference realignment.

Boise State of the WAC was a thorn in the MW’s non-AQ side. So get used to it, AAC fans. It’s all what being the tallest midget gets you.

Achieved five years ago?

Sorry, but as a Fresno fan you have to acknowledge the BS of this statement lol. The MWC never really achieved anything because it never had the consistency the AAC has.

Not so fast my friend. IIRC, I looked at the Sagarin and MC conference rankings from a decade ago, and the MW (and maybe the WAC) were stronger than the AAC has been the last five years.

Remember, in the five years of the CFP, the AAC has been the #1 G5 conference 3 times, #2 once, and #3 once. The MW has been #1 twice and #2 three times.

That's not much separation.

(10-15-2019 10:25 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 12:19 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  An undefeated App State would have wins over North Carolina AND South Carolina.

Can any AAC team top that?

IF App St beats SC and wins out they would have the best wins of any G5. They probably wouldn't jump Boise (maybe should though) but should be ahead of SMU and certainly any one loss AAC team.

This is a ludicrous statement.
South Carolina currently #38 (and would drop with a loss to App) and UNC #44 (all rankings in this post Massey Composite)

SMU's better wins would be:
#16 Cincinnati (conference championship game)
#29 Memphis
#32 Tulane
#33 Navy
#40 TCU
#48 Temple

One-loss Cincy could have:
#20 SMU (conference championship game)
#28 UCF
#29 Memphis
#48 Temple

One-loss Memphis would have:
#16 Cincinnati
#20 SMU
#32 Tulane
#33 Navy

And maybe a re-match with #48 Temple or add #28 UCF in ccg

One-loss Navy would have:
#16 Cincy (ccg) or UCF or Temple
#20 SMU
#32 Tulane
#42 Air Force....
oh, and #11 Notre Dame

In fact, IF App beats South Carolina and wins out...there is almost no way that the AAC champ WON'T have better wins than App's wins.

(10-15-2019 11:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 11:52 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 10:56 AM)fresnofanatic Wrote:  

(10-13-2019 11:37 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  Impressed with APP St. ad the following schedule not a murderer's row. The AAC is going to be a long shot, if the team has one loss.

(10-15-2019 09:41 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  The question is going to be does the committee actually value the AAC as strongly as a lot of the computer systems and polls do? I suspect because of their inherent bias they probably don't. Right now in the coaches poll you have SMU, Cincy, and Temple ranked and in the AP you have SMU and Cincy ranked and Tulane the next team out. If the committee poll came out today I'd be stunned if anyone but SMU from the AAC was ranked in it. I fully suspect they never rank more than 1 AAC team at a time in their poll, which allows them to keep up the narrative that the reason they don't consider any non-P5 school is that they don't have to go thru the week in week out "grind" in conference.

AAC has finally reached the level the MWC was at for about 5 years straight before the big conference realignment.

Boise State of the WAC was a thorn in the MW’s non-AQ side. So get used to it, AAC fans. It’s all what being the tallest midget gets you.

Achieved five years ago?

Sorry, but as a Fresno fan you have to acknowledge the BS of this statement lol. The MWC never really achieved anything because it never had the consistency the AAC has.

Not so fast my friend. IIRC, I looked at the Sagarin and MC conference rankings from a decade ago, and the MW (and maybe the WAC) were stronger than the AAC has been the last five years.

Remember, in the five years of the CFP, the AAC has been the #1 G5 conference 3 times, #2 once, and #3 once. The MW has been #1 twice and #2 three times.

That's not much separation.

At this point in 2019, the AAC is closer to the #2 conference than they are to #7 mwc.

(10-15-2019 11:41 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 11:32 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 10:10 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 09:56 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  Are you guys incapable of just waiting three weeks. This is nothing more than "mine is bigger than urs".

Florida State was overrated. Marshall was overrated. Boise State has not played or beaten anyone of significance yet. There is no reason that they deserve to be ranked where they are. SMU has two good wins but has no clue what defense means. If they ever play a team who has really good defensive backs and plays 3/4 they are going to get owned. Cincinnati got demolished and has no business in the top 25.

I'm all for the belief that teams get better as the season goes on and that's why this is pointless. All of these teams need to play 8-9 games before we know how truly good any of them are.

Right now no one knows how good any of these teams are.

I realize that you believe I (as a Cincinnati alum) am not being objective, but this OSU team would beat 97% of the teams in CFB by multiple TDs. They've already smoked several B10 teams. I don't root for OSU at all and I'll say this- they'll be playing in the CFP alongside your Crimson Tide this year.

Ohio State is a great team. IMO they are a top 4 team.

But that does not excuse losing 42-0. Texas A&M is 3-3 and scored 28 on Alabama. Ole Miss is 3-4 and scored 31 on Alabama. FAU put up 21 on Ohio State.

Very good points - heck both Indiana and FAU lost by fewer points to Ohio State than did Cincy and nobody is touting them for the top 25.

And three of Cincy's four wins are against teams ranked 77, 93, and 99 in the computer composite.

It is often discussed that SOS bias hurts the G5 schools, but this could well be a case where it is helping. Cincy's soft schedule has allowed them to rack up wins and hence a gaudy record, which is being valued over some P5, like TAMU, that have played withering schedules.

I've heard TAMU mentioned a lot as the "most disappointing team in the country". But, they've lost to Alabama, Clemson, and Auburn. Did anyone seriously think they were going to beat Alabama or Clemson? I guess many thought they would beat Auburn, so that's the one game they should have won that they lost. But seriously, losing to *Auburn* makes you the most disappointing team in America?

The only way TAMU is disappointing AT ALL is if you thought they were a top 10 team. I sure didn't.

Exactly, if you gave Texas A&M the schedule that Cincinnati has. Texas A&M would be 5-1 and Cincinnati would likely be 2-4 with three blowout losses.

Quo, lol you probably wont like me saying this. But that's why UCF was so special the last two seasons. That UCF team in 2017/2018 could have played a tough schedule and won a lot of games. Because they simply had (dudes) on that team. Milton was a baller. That CB who got drafted was a baller.

However, this year I don't see any G5 team with that level of talent this year.

(10-14-2019 07:04 PM)fresnofanatic Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 08:31 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  Yeah the AAC is in bad shape for the NY6. SMU's the only undefeated team left and I just flat out don't think there's much of a shot they can get thru their remaining games against Temple, Memphis, Navy, and Tulane, which are all probably better teams than that TCU team they beat. If they actually could get thru that and then beat lets say Cincy in the title game I'd argue till I was blue in the face they deserved the game over Boise even if Boise was also undefeated, but I'd still expect Boise on just name value to get it. An undefeated Boise will absolutely get it over any 1 loss AAC champ, and I think an undefeated App State would get it over any 2 loss AAC champ (which is what I'm expecting at this point). I expect the AAC to keep 2-3 teams ranked in the top 25 over the course of the season among the group of 7 really good teams they have, but I expect it to cycle as they cannibalize each other and none are going to escape unscathed.

(10-14-2019 09:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 08:31 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  Yeah the AAC is in bad shape for the NY6. SMU's the only undefeated team left and I just flat out don't think there's much of a shot they can get thru their remaining games against Temple, Memphis, Navy, and Tulane, which are all probably better teams than that TCU team they beat.

First, someone probably coulda won a lot of money if they were willing to bet that SMU would be the last unbeaten AAC team left.

Second, I think you are way too pessimistic. App State is a pesky presence, but bottom line is a once-beaten AAC champ is likely to get the NY6 bid over them, as they have little name value and a soft schedule **.

There is really just one threat to the AAC getting the NY6 slot, and that's unbeaten Boise of course. If Boise runs the table, they will likely get the spot.

But Boise is not 2001 Miami, they are a pretty good team and that's all. The MW is a tough conference so you can't just say they are favorites in all their games, because in a tough conference there is a cumulative effect.

Overall, I think Boise has a 25% chance to go unbeaten, meaning the AAC has a 75% chance to get the G5 bid.


** I will be tickled if the NY6 slot does come down to a once-beaten AAC champ vs an unbeaten App State. It will be hilarious watching all those AAC fans who for two years ranted that UCF deserved a playoff spot over once-beaten P5 teams because "UCF won all their games and if you win all your games you should be in!" suddenly turn face and argue for SOS, toughness of conference, etc. in favor of their AAC champ.

(10-14-2019 12:19 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  An undefeated App State would have wins over North Carolina AND South Carolina.

Can any AAC team top that?

(10-14-2019 01:05 PM)Fthechips Wrote:  How is Georgia State that far ahead of WMU who completely embarrassed them?

They played more games than just each other. And, GA State has the win at Tenn.

Sagarin has WMU @69 and GSU @93 so I thought that was interesting.