1. MWC-Boise State 6-0..............929...+41/even
2. AAC-SMU 6-0.........................837......-3/even
3. SBC-Appalachian State 5-0......798..+104/up 1
4. AAC-Cincinnati 5-1..................595...+77/up 2
5. AAC-Central Florida 4-2............583...-35/even
6. AAC-Memphis 5-1....................551..-229/dn 3
7. AAC-Tulane 5-1.......................369...+43/even
8. AAC-Temple 5-1......................303..+117/up 3
9. MWC-San Diego State 5-1........294..+113/up 3
10. MWC- Air Force 4-2................280....+70/dn 1
11. MWC-Hawaii 4-2....................194.....-72/dn 3
12. MWC-Wyoming 4-2................180.....-14/dn 2
13. AAC-Navy 4-1.......................167....+95/up 1
14. MWC-Utah State 3-2..............138.....-20/dn 1
15. CUSA-LA Tech 5-1.................113...+101/up 6
16. SBC-Georgia State 4-2............68.....+64/up 8
17. MWC-Nevada 4-2....................56.....+12/up 1
18. MAC-Toledo 4-2......................52.......+2/dn 2
19. SBC-Coastal Carolina 3-3.........44......-12/dn 4
20. SBC-Louisiana 4-2..................38......-10/dn 3
21. MWC-San Jose State 3-3.........24......+16/up 1
22. MWC-FRESNO STATE 2-3........20.......-18/dn 3
23. MAC-Western Michigan 4-3......10......+10/NR
24. CUSA-Florida Atlantic 4-2..........6.........0/dn 1
25. AAC-Houston 2-4.....................0.......-34/dn 5

Others Receiving: None

Dropped Out: Tulsa


CONFERENCE STRENGTH RANKINGS

*...total pts (avg pts per tot teams)

1. AAC...3405 (283.8)
2. MWC..2115 (176.3)
3. SBC.....948 (94.8)
4. CUSA...119 (8.5)
5. MAC......62 (5.2)

I think it's between App State, SMU, Cincinnati, and Boise State

<<<<<<<<<<<The full body of work to date>>>>>>>>>>>

FF G5 ‘Race to NY6’



Methodology: FF Composite Points...

(Weight = X2) for inverse top 65 of: ESPN FPI + Massey Ratings + Sagarin + CBS 130
+
(Weight = X3) for inverse 50 of: Coaches Poll, including others receiving votes
+
(Weight = X4) for inverse 50 of: AP Poll, incl ORV
+
Bonus of 130 points for being undefeated (...65 1L...33 2L.../When no 0L...1L...etc)
+
Bonus of (Weighted X2) inverse 100 of beating top100 P5 (per Massey Ratings) at home
+
Bonus of (Weighted X4) inverse 100 of beating top 100 P5 on the road
-
Minus Sagarin ranking of lost to FCS below 130
____________________________________________________________
= total FF Composite Points




****Week 4****

1. MWC-Boise State 4-0 (830)
2. AAC-Central Florida 3-1 (798)
3. AAC-Memphis 3-0 (630)
4. AAC-SMU 4-0 (590)
5. SBC-Appalachian State 3-0 (544)
6. MWC-Air Force 2-1 (300)
7. AAC-Temple 2-1 (296)
8. MWC-San Diego State 3-1 (226)
9. AAC-Cincinnati 2-1 (220)
10 MWC-Utah State 2-1 (216)
11 MWC-Wyoming 3-1 (204)
12 AAC-Navy 2-0 (178)
13 MAC-Eastern Michigan 3-1 (168)
14 CUSA-UAB 3-0 (130)
15 AAC-Tulane 3-1 (116)
16 MWC-Fresno State 1-2 (94)
17 SBC-Coastal Carolina 3-1 (92)
17 MWC-Hawaii 3-1 (92)
19 MWC-Nevada 3-1 (84)
20 CUSA-Marshall 2-1 (24)
21 AAC-Houston 1-3 (22)
22 MAC-Toledo 2-1 (18)
22 SBC-Louisiana 3-1 (18)
24 CUSA-Southern Miss 2-2 (6)
25 MAC-Western Michigan 2-2 (2)

Others Receiving FF Comp Points: N/A

Conf...tot FF PPP Pts...conf avg

AAC.....2850...237.5
MWC...2046...170.5
SBC.......700.....70.0
MAC.......188.....15.7
CUSA.....160.....11.4
G5.......5944.....99.1



****Week 5****

1. MWC-Boise State 4-0 .........(865) +35/even
2. AAC-SMU 5-0 .....................(859) +269/up 2
3. AAC-Central Florida 4-1 ......(711) -87/dn 1
4. AAC-Memphis 4-0 ..............(645) +15/dn 1
5. SBC-Appalachian State 4-0 (632) +78/even
6. AAC-Cincinnati 3-1 ..............(326) +106/up 3
7. MWC-Air Force 3-1 ...............(321) +21/dn 1
8. MWC-Utah State 3-1 ...........(254) +38/up 2
9. AAC-Tulane 3-1 ....................(241) +125/up 6
10 MWC-Wyoming 4-1 .............(206) +2/up 1
11 MWC-San Diego State 3-1 ...(184) -42/dn 3
12 MWC-Hawaii 4-1 ..................(164) +72/up 5
13 AAC-Temple 3-1 ...................(136) -160/dn 6
14 MAC-Eastern Michigan 3-1 ..(116) -52/dn 1
15 SBC-Coastal Carolina 3-2 .....(76) -16/up 2
16 SBC-Louisiana 4-1 ................(66) +48/up 6
17 MWC-Nevada 3-2 .................(58) -26/up 2
18 MWC-Fresno State 2-2 ........(46) -48/dn 2
19 AAC-Houston 2-3 .................(38) +16/up 2
20 CUSA-Marshall 2-2 ..............(24) even/even
21 SBC-Troy 2-2 .........................(14) nr/nr
22 MWC-San Jose State 2-2......(12) nr/nr
23 SBC-Arkansas State 3-2 ........(0) nr/nr
24 AAC-Navy 2-1 .........................(0) -176/dn 12
25 MAC-Toledo 3-1 ......................(0) -18/dn 3

ORFFC Points: NA

Dropped: UAB, Southern Miss, Western Michigan

AAC......2956...246.3
MWC.....2110....175.8
SBC........788......78.8
MAC........116........9.7
CUSA........24........1.7
G5.........5994.....99.9



****Week 6****


*Team...FF Points...record...change from previous week

1. MWC-Boise State.......888...5-0...+23/even
2. AAC-SMU...................840...6-0...-19/even
3. AAC-Memphis............780...5-0..+135/up 1
4. SBC-Appalachian St...694...4-0...+62/up 1
5. AAC-Central Florida....618...4-2...-93/dn 2
6. AAC-Cincinnati...........518...4-1...+192/even
7. AAC-Tulane................326...4-1....+85/up 2
8. MWC-Hawaii..............266...4-1...+102/up 4
9. MWC-Air Force..........210....3-2...-111/dn 2
10. MWC-Wyoming.........194....4-1....-12/even
11. AAC-Temple..............186...4-1....+50/up 2
12. MWC-San Diego St...181....4-1.......-3/dn 1
13. MWC-Utah State.......158...3-2.....-96/dn 5
14. AAC-Navy....................72....3-1.....+72/up 10
15. SBC-Coastal Carolina..56...3-2.....-20/even
16. MAC-Toledo.................50...4-1.....+50/up 9
17. SBC-Louisiana.............48...4-1.....-18/even
18. MWC-Nevada...............44...3-2.....-14/dn 1
19. MWC-FRESNO STATE...38..2-2......-8/dn 1
20. AAC-Houston................34..2-3.....-4/dn 1
21. CUSA-LA Tech...............12...4-1.....+12/nr
22. MWC-San Jose St...........8....3-2......-4/even
23. CUSA-Florida Atlantic.....6...3-2......+6/nr
24. SBC-Georgia State.........4...3-2.......+4/nr
25. AAC-Tulsa.......................0....2-3....even/nr

Others receiving FF Pts: N/A

Dropped out: Eastern Michigan, Marshall, Troy, Arkansas State


Conference Strength Rankings

1. AAC....3374...281.2
2. MWC..1987...165.6
3. SBC.....802....80.2
4. MAC......50.......4.2
5. CUSA....18........1.3
G5.........6231....103.9



****Week 7****

1. MWC-Boise State 6-0..............929...+41/even
2. AAC-SMU 6-0..........................837......-3/even
3. SBC-Appalachian State 5-0....798..+104/up 1
4. AAC-Cincinnati 5-1..................595...+77/up 2
5. AAC-Central Florida 4-2..........583...-35/even
6. AAC-Memphis 5-1....................551..-229/dn 3
7. AAC-Tulane 5-1.........................369...+43/even
8. AAC-Temple 5-1.......................303..+117/up 3
9. MWC-San Diego State 5-1.......294..+113/up 3
10. MWC- Air Force 4-2................280....+70/dn 1
11. MWC-Hawaii 4-2......................194.....-72/dn 3
12. MWC-Wyoming 4-2.................180.....-14/dn 2
13. AAC-Navy 4-1...........................167....+95/up 1
14. MWC-Utah State 3-2...............138.....-20/dn 1
15. CUSA-LA Tech 5-1....................113...+101/up 6
16. SBC-Georgia State 4-2.............68.....+64/up 8
17. MWC-Nevada 4-2......................56.....+12/up 1
18. MAC-Toledo 4-2........................52.......+2/dn 2
19. SBC-Coastal Carolina 3-3.........44......-12/dn 4
20. SBC-Louisiana 4-2....................38......-10/dn 3
21. MWC-San Jose State 3-3..........24.....+16/up 1
22. MWC-FRESNO STATE 2-3........20......-18/dn 3
23. MAC-Western Michigan 4-3......10.....+10/NR
24. CUSA-Florida Atlantic 4-2..........6..........0/dn 1
25. AAC-Houston 2-4........................0.....-34/dn 5

Others Receiving: None

Dropped Out: Tulsa


CONFERENCE STRENGTH RANKINGS

*...total pts (avg pts per tot teams)

1. AAC...3405 (283.8)
2. MWC..2115 (176.3)
3. SBC.....948 (94.8)
4. CUSA...119 (8.5)
5. MAC......62 (5.2)
G5.........6649 (110.8)

(10-13-2019 03:29 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  I think it's between App State, SMU, Cincinnati, and Boise State

In the AAC, I’d add in the discussion: Temple, Memphis and even Tulane and Navy.

Maybe San Diego in the MW with USU as a big stretch.

Appalachian State....I cannot see any other SBC team beat them. And if they beat South Carolina in Columbia!...

CUSA and MAC? Very very very very very long shot for LaTech with unbelievable tons of help. Houston probably has as good of shot as LaTech, if Cougs get their stuff together and start playing their A-game the rest of the season. Then again, Houston and Fresno waking ta **** up the rest of the season and App St losing their CCG might be how LaTech gets into NY6???

(10-13-2019 03:29 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  I think it's between App State, SMU, Cincinnati, and Boise State

And, 2 of these teams are ranked in the teens! Small chance 2 will crack the Top 12. I think SMU is least likely of the 4 you list.

Impressed with APP St. ad the following schedule not a murderer's row. The AAC is going to be a long shot, if the team has one loss.

Yeah the AAC is in bad shape for the NY6. SMU's the only undefeated team left and I just flat out don't think there's much of a shot they can get thru their remaining games against Temple, Memphis, Navy, and Tulane, which are all probably better teams than that TCU team they beat. If they actually could get thru that and then beat lets say Cincy in the title game I'd argue till I was blue in the face they deserved the game over Boise even if Boise was also undefeated, but I'd still expect Boise on just name value to get it. An undefeated Boise will absolutely get it over any 1 loss AAC champ, and I think an undefeated App State would get it over any 2 loss AAC champ (which is what I'm expecting at this point). I expect the AAC to keep 2-3 teams ranked in the top 25 over the course of the season among the group of 7 really good teams they have, but I expect it to cycle as they cannibalize each other and none are going to escape unscathed.

(10-14-2019 08:31 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  Yeah the AAC is in bad shape for the NY6. SMU's the only undefeated team left and I just flat out don't think there's much of a shot they can get thru their remaining games against Temple, Memphis, Navy, and Tulane, which are all probably better teams than that TCU team they beat.

First, someone probably coulda won a lot of money if they were willing to bet that SMU would be the last unbeaten AAC team left.

Second, I think you are way too pessimistic. App State is a pesky presence, but bottom line is a once-beaten AAC champ is likely to get the NY6 bid over them, as they have little name value and a soft schedule **.

There is really just one threat to the AAC getting the NY6 slot, and that's unbeaten Boise of course. If Boise runs the table, they will likely get the spot.

But Boise is not 2001 Miami, they are a pretty good team and that's all. The MW is a tough conference so you can't just say they are favorites in all their games, because in a tough conference there is a cumulative effect.

Overall, I think Boise has a 25% chance to go unbeaten, meaning the AAC has a 75% chance to get the G5 bid.


** I will be tickled if the NY6 slot does come down to a once-beaten AAC champ vs an unbeaten App State. It will be hilarious watching all those AAC fans who for two years ranted that UCF deserved a playoff spot over once-beaten P5 teams because "UCF won all their games and if you win all your games you should be in!" suddenly turn face and argue for SOS, toughness of conference, etc. in favor of their AAC champ.

(10-14-2019 09:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  [quote='b0ndsj0ns' pid='16371041' dateline='1571059887']
Yeah the AAC is in bad shape for the NY6. SMU's the only undefeated team left and I just flat out don't think there's much of a shot they can get thru their remaining games against Temple, Memphis, Navy, and Tulane, which are all probably better teams than that TCU team they beat.

First, someone probably coulda won a lot of money if they were willing to bet that SMU would be the last unbeaten AAC team left.

Second, I think you are way too pessimistic. App State is a pesky presence, but bottom line is a once-beaten AAC champ is likely to get the NY6 bid over them, as they have little name value and a soft schedule **.
quote]



I agree I think a 1 loss AAC champ probably does get the bid over App. My post was saying I think an undefeated App gets in over any 2 loss AAC champ, which I also said is what I fully expect to be the end result. I think there's too many good teams in the AAC for anyone to escape with just 1 loss overall. I'd say the best odds are Cincinnati at this point of getting to the title game with 1 loss, but they still have to face Temple and then @Memphis to end the regular season. Temple (who I think is really good) has to play @SMU, UCF, Tulane, and @Cincy and I don't see them getting thru that. Every team in the west has a gauntlet left as so far the only of the top teams in the west to play each other are Memphis and Navy. I could see any of Memphis/Navy/SMU/Tulane beating any of the others.

An undefeated App State would have wins over North Carolina AND South Carolina.

Can any AAC team top that?

How is Georgia State that far ahead of WMU who completely embarrassed them?

If a 12-0 APP, I don't think the CFP would be willing to jump APP. Especially if App upsets SC in Columbia. I have a feeling, first CFP rankings will have the following if all G5 remain undefeated for the first poll.

Boise St
SMU
APP St

(10-14-2019 03:49 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  If a 12-0 APP, I don't think the CFP would be willing to jump APP. Especially if App upsets SC in Columbia. I have a feeling, first CFP rankings will have the following if all G5 remain undefeated for the first poll.

Boise St
SMU
APP St

None of this really matters at this point. App will lose to their rival anytime they have success.

(10-14-2019 12:19 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  An undefeated App State would have wins over North Carolina AND South Carolina.

Can any AAC team top that?

1. Temple has wins over Georgia Tech and Maryland. However they have a bad loss (Buffalo).
2. Memphis has a win over Ole Miss and Temple, still have to play undefeated SMU, Top 25 Tulane, Top 25 Cincinnati, and Houston.
3. SMU is undefeated, has beaten TCU and still has to play Temple, Houston, Navy and Tulane.
4. Cincinnati beat UCLA and UCF, still to play Temple and Memphis.
5. Tulane still to play Memphis, Navy, Temple, UCF and SMU.

In other words, if an AAC team comes out undefeated (SMU) or one loss, they will have a resume of more quality opposition than Appy State and possibly two or more wins better than UNC and South Carolina.

(10-14-2019 04:05 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 12:19 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  An undefeated App State would have wins over North Carolina AND South Carolina.

Can any AAC team top that?

1. Temple has wins over Georgia Tech and Maryland. However they have a bad loss (Buffalo).
2. Memphis has a win over Ole Miss and Temple, still have to play undefeated SMU, Top 25 Tulane, Top 25 Cincinnati, and Houston.
3. SMU is undefeated, has beaten TCU and still has to play Temple, Houston, Navy and Tulane.
4. Cincinnati beat UCLA and UCF, still to play Temple and Memphis.
5. Tulane still to play Memphis, Navy, Temple, UCF and SMU.

In other words, if an AAC team comes out undefeated (SMU) or one loss, they will have a resume of more quality opposition than Appy State and possibly two or more wins better than UNC and South Carolina.

The Citadel beat Ga Tech. Maryland is a semi-ok win. But Temple lost to Buffalo. Buffalo is 2-4. Nope, not above an undefeated App State
Memphis would have one P5 win that is not nearly as good as either USC or UNC. Nope, not above undefeated App State
SMU - if undefeated, would be likely above App State on conference rep alone. TCU is rated about the same as either UNC or USC, but a one loss SMU would be below ASU
Cincy's "Big Win" is over a team barely in the top 100
Tulane's big win is what? Missouri State? FIU?

(10-14-2019 04:18 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 04:05 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 12:19 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  An undefeated App State would have wins over North Carolina AND South Carolina.

Can any AAC team top that?

1. Temple has wins over Georgia Tech and Maryland. However they have a bad loss (Buffalo).
2. Memphis has a win over Ole Miss and Temple, still have to play undefeated SMU, Top 25 Tulane, Top 25 Cincinnati, and Houston.
3. SMU is undefeated, has beaten TCU and still has to play Temple, Houston, Navy and Tulane.
4. Cincinnati beat UCLA and UCF, still to play Temple and Memphis.
5. Tulane still to play Memphis, Navy, Temple, UCF and SMU.

In other words, if an AAC team comes out undefeated (SMU) or one loss, they will have a resume of more quality opposition than Appy State and possibly two or more wins better than UNC and South Carolina.

The Citadel beat Ga Tech. Maryland is a semi-ok win. But Temple lost to Buffalo. Buffalo is 2-4. Nope, not above an undefeated App State
Memphis would have one P5 win that is not nearly as good as either USC or UNC. Nope, not above undefeated App State
SMU - if undefeated, would be likely above App State on conference rep alone. TCU is rated about the same as either UNC or USC, but a one loss SMU would be below ASU
Cincy's "Big Win" is over a team barely in the top 100
Tulane's big win is what? Missouri State? FIU?

Going off Massey Composite rankings, Cincinnati (16), SMU (20), UCF (28), Memphis (29), Tulane (31), and Navy (33) are all ranked higher than South Carolina (38) and North Carolina (43) and Temple (50) is not far behind.

Whomever wins the American could have several wins better than South Carolina and North Carolina in conference play, depending how all these teams finish the season.

(10-14-2019 04:25 PM)Chappy Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 04:18 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 04:05 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 12:19 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  An undefeated App State would have wins over North Carolina AND South Carolina.

Can any AAC team top that?

1. Temple has wins over Georgia Tech and Maryland. However they have a bad loss (Buffalo).
2. Memphis has a win over Ole Miss and Temple, still have to play undefeated SMU, Top 25 Tulane, Top 25 Cincinnati, and Houston.
3. SMU is undefeated, has beaten TCU and still has to play Temple, Houston, Navy and Tulane.
4. Cincinnati beat UCLA and UCF, still to play Temple and Memphis.
5. Tulane still to play Memphis, Navy, Temple, UCF and SMU.

In other words, if an AAC team comes out undefeated (SMU) or one loss, they will have a resume of more quality opposition than Appy State and possibly two or more wins better than UNC and South Carolina.

The Citadel beat Ga Tech. Maryland is a semi-ok win. But Temple lost to Buffalo. Buffalo is 2-4. Nope, not above an undefeated App State
Memphis would have one P5 win that is not nearly as good as either USC or UNC. Nope, not above undefeated App State
SMU - if undefeated, would be likely above App State on conference rep alone. TCU is rated about the same as either UNC or USC, but a one loss SMU would be below ASU
Cincy's "Big Win" is over a team barely in the top 100
Tulane's big win is what? Missouri State? FIU?

Going off Massey Composite rankings, Cincinnati (16), SMU (20), UCF (28), Memphis (29), Tulane (31), and Navy (33) are all ranked higher than South Carolina (38) and North Carolina (43) and Temple (50) is not far behind.

Whomever wins the American could have several wins better than South Carolina and North Carolina in conference play, depending how all these teams finish the season.

I'm guessing he's putting zero stock in AAC wins meaning anything, but yeah anyone who gets thru the AAC with even 1 loss is going to have to beat probably 3 teams in conference rated higher than those 2, and maybe more.

(10-14-2019 04:31 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 04:25 PM)Chappy Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 04:18 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 04:05 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 12:19 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  An undefeated App State would have wins over North Carolina AND South Carolina.

Can any AAC team top that?

1. Temple has wins over Georgia Tech and Maryland. However they have a bad loss (Buffalo).
2. Memphis has a win over Ole Miss and Temple, still have to play undefeated SMU, Top 25 Tulane, Top 25 Cincinnati, and Houston.
3. SMU is undefeated, has beaten TCU and still has to play Temple, Houston, Navy and Tulane.
4. Cincinnati beat UCLA and UCF, still to play Temple and Memphis.
5. Tulane still to play Memphis, Navy, Temple, UCF and SMU.

In other words, if an AAC team comes out undefeated (SMU) or one loss, they will have a resume of more quality opposition than Appy State and possibly two or more wins better than UNC and South Carolina.

The Citadel beat Ga Tech. Maryland is a semi-ok win. But Temple lost to Buffalo. Buffalo is 2-4. Nope, not above an undefeated App State
Memphis would have one P5 win that is not nearly as good as either USC or UNC. Nope, not above undefeated App State
SMU - if undefeated, would be likely above App State on conference rep alone. TCU is rated about the same as either UNC or USC, but a one loss SMU would be below ASU
Cincy's "Big Win" is over a team barely in the top 100
Tulane's big win is what? Missouri State? FIU?

Going off Massey Composite rankings, Cincinnati (16), SMU (20), UCF (28), Memphis (29), Tulane (31), and Navy (33) are all ranked higher than South Carolina (38) and North Carolina (43) and Temple (50) is not far behind.

Whomever wins the American could have several wins better than South Carolina and North Carolina in conference play, depending how all these teams finish the season.

I'm guessing he's putting zero stock in AAC wins meaning anything, but yeah anyone who gets thru the AAC with even 1 loss is going to have to beat probably 3 teams in conference rated higher than those 2, and maybe more.

Conference wins are a closed feedback loop - the same loop that always benefits the SEC (well, we beat each other up, so we are all good).

As stated above, undefeated SMU will get in ahead of undefeated App State, in part because of an overall tougher schedule.

It will be hard to deny App though, if they are the only undefeated G5 team, especially since they would have wins over two P5 teams, including the team that just took out one of the MNC contenders.

All this talk is moot because Boise isn't losing. But if App is the only undefeated G5, I'm buying tickets to the Cotton Bowl because as you AAC guys have said for years undefeated means you are national champions.

(10-14-2019 04:43 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 04:31 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 04:25 PM)Chappy Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 04:18 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 04:05 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  1. Temple has wins over Georgia Tech and Maryland. However they have a bad loss (Buffalo).
2. Memphis has a win over Ole Miss and Temple, still have to play undefeated SMU, Top 25 Tulane, Top 25 Cincinnati, and Houston.
3. SMU is undefeated, has beaten TCU and still has to play Temple, Houston, Navy and Tulane.
4. Cincinnati beat UCLA and UCF, still to play Temple and Memphis.
5. Tulane still to play Memphis, Navy, Temple, UCF and SMU.

In other words, if an AAC team comes out undefeated (SMU) or one loss, they will have a resume of more quality opposition than Appy State and possibly two or more wins better than UNC and South Carolina.

The Citadel beat Ga Tech. Maryland is a semi-ok win. But Temple lost to Buffalo. Buffalo is 2-4. Nope, not above an undefeated App State
Memphis would have one P5 win that is not nearly as good as either USC or UNC. Nope, not above undefeated App State
SMU - if undefeated, would be likely above App State on conference rep alone. TCU is rated about the same as either UNC or USC, but a one loss SMU would be below ASU
Cincy's "Big Win" is over a team barely in the top 100
Tulane's big win is what? Missouri State? FIU?

Going off Massey Composite rankings, Cincinnati (16), SMU (20), UCF (28), Memphis (29), Tulane (31), and Navy (33) are all ranked higher than South Carolina (38) and North Carolina (43) and Temple (50) is not far behind.

Whomever wins the American could have several wins better than South Carolina and North Carolina in conference play, depending how all these teams finish the season.

I'm guessing he's putting zero stock in AAC wins meaning anything, but yeah anyone who gets thru the AAC with even 1 loss is going to have to beat probably 3 teams in conference rated higher than those 2, and maybe more.

Conference wins are a closed feedback loop - the same loop that always benefits the SEC (well, we beat each other up, so we are all good).

That's why you look at things like computers, because computers don't care about conference reputation.