RE: UConn fans do not realize this is a different Big East than the old Big East
(Warning: long rambling post)
If you asked me a year ago, I would have been seriously opposed to this Big East decision. At this moment in time, however there is some method to this madness for UConn. This decision seems to be based on UConn assuming that our worst case scenario in the next possible round of conference realignment in 2024 comes to fruition (after all, we are still the reigning “biggest loser” of conference realignment, so it would have been likely). So, let’s first look at current reality.
Cultural Fit: UConn was a geographic outlier in the AAC. We had no previous history with any of the schools (save for some Big East history with Cincy, USF, and Temple in football). Our fan base became indifferent due to not playing our traditional rivals that were in our own backyard. In basketball, recruiting NYC was our bread and butter (and it was getting harder to convince those kids to take four hour flights to the deep south and southwest to play solid up and coming, but not fully there yet perception wise, basketball opponents), so we were starting to slide a bit. Plus, on top of being tough on student athletes, all of those long flights for Olympic sports were chewing up our budget. Either way, basketball is our main passion. For most other AAC schools, basketball is merely what you do to fill the time when it isn't football season.
Football Reality: For football, UConn is a school in a state with little high school football talent trying to compete against schools in Texas and Florida that are awash with prospects and located nowhere near us. Our administration (as well as all of you) knew that UConn would never rise to the top in this conference based on geography and the fact that we aren't located in the heart of college football country. For us, football is important, but not as important as basketball. We were never going to catch up with Houston, UCF, Memphis, or Cincinnati in football if we stayed in this conference. Being dead last or in the bottom three every year was beginning to look like our fate. That type of performance in conference was beginning to be a black eye to us. Also, some will say that not being in a conference is suicide since there are no guaranteed bowl tie-ins. Well, regardless, coming out of a G5 league pretty much guarantees that you won’t get into a major bowl (only one G5 slot is available) or the playoffs most years even if you deserve it (you have to go undefeated for a playoff chance, and even then the P5 bias will try and cheat you out of your opportunity). So, we were really clinging to the sad reality that we likely weren’t winning the conference ever and, even if we did, it doesn’t really matter since winning a natty (not just a recognized one, but playing in the actual title game) is a pipe dream in a G5 league - especially for UConn.
TV Reality in the AAC: UConn has no Tier 3 rights and now many games are hidden on ESPN+ starting in 2020 instead of being on ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU/CBSsports. Without SNY as a partner going forward, UConn also loses 14mm homes (mostly in the NYC metro, but also nationally) who tune into UConn women’s and men’s basketball. SNY has other content that highlights UConn basketball, and it is certainly a help in men’s and women’s recruiting. It was practically like having our own channel at times.
TV Reality in the Big East: FS1 and FS2 are now proven commodities and we will get actual air time instead of streaming time. Furthermore, we may get content back onto SNY and likely control our 3rd tier rights (which generate several millions for UConn when we control them). For whatever we lose in TV revenue, we gain it back by decreasing our travel costs.
P5 Realignment reality for UConn in the AAC in 2024: UConn could easily surmise that, if (and that is a big if) the P5 conferences wanted to pick up members in 2024, then at this point we would be behind Houston, UCF, Cincinnati and Memphis due to our football program. The ACC or Big 12 would see that we weren't doing well against these schools and that our basketball attendance was creeping down to our fan base not caring that much about the schools on our schedule (whether they are good or not). Either way, football drives the bus in that scenario, and UConn wasn’t competing with those aforementioned schools as it was tangible that our football wasn’t stacking up against them.
P5 Realignment reality for UConn in the Big East in 2024: Big East membership allows us to demonstrate that we can still sell tons of basketball tickets (UConn fans will flock back against these schools). Playing in NYC a few times a year (as well as the conference tournament) lets UConn demonstrate to the TV powers that be (again) that our fans flock to New York being right next door and that we draw well on national television. Also, football as an Independent will be tough, but it could position us better for a P5 invite. If we can cobble together a schedule that lets us achieve a decent record, then it will be more helpful that finishing 11th in the AAC. Also, with the AAC long behind us by then (people have short memories as evidenced by nobody remembering that we were in the Fiesta Bowl a mere 7 years ago) being an Indy may make us smell better to a P5 conference than being in a G5 conference.
Either way, it simply comes down to this. If Houston, Cincy, and Memphis bolted in 2024, that would be it for UConn’s basketball programs. Dead in the water. At that point, we would have no leverage with the Big East and likely would have slid even more on the court by then due to decreasing fan attendance. Righting the basketball ship now gives us a chance. If realignment happens again in 2024 (once again, a big if), our basketball should look better and our football should, too (if it still exists – also a big if with this gamble). If the P5 leagues don’t expand in 2024, that is game over for everyone in the AAC who wanted to get out anyway. At that point, G5 football is a financial waste and many schools won't be able to continue to justify the budget for it. We are all only spending on it now due to the prayer of making the P5. It is an expensive sport and, if you can’t play with the big boys due to their exclusionary tactics, what is the point? At that time, many schools may just drop football to FCS and play for a natty there. UConn just needs to ensure that man's and woman's basketball, our crown jewels, won’t be left for dead by the side of the road.
Anyway, I will miss this conference and miss you all. I will still root for the AAC teams when we aren’t playing you.
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