(06-23-2019 03:07 PM)esayem Wrote:  The American is trending southwest with the HQ and tourney in Texas.

IF, and that's a HUGE IF, the AAC lands Army, I could see St. Louis being invited as a full member. That would give the conference a major city in which they could plant a flag.

A western division with Army, Navy, Tulane, Houston, SMU, and Tulsa would be manageable for the academies. It would be quite wonky to play a conference game after the CCG though. Like what if they were both undefeated in conference, who goes? Army will NOT play in a division with the Florida teams.

I just don't see Army wanting to subject the troops to playing future professional athletes week in and week out. Hell, didn't play a game AT Yale recently?

In their defense, that game at the Yale Bowl was some kind of 100th anniversary or something. They requested and got a waiver for the game to count as a win to bowl eligibility despite Yale not hitting the FCS scholarship threshold.
I'm not going to defend Army playing TWO FCS this year AGAIN, but I'm not going to hold that game with historical resonance against them.

Plus the Yale Bowl is an iconic stadium. It would be cool if Army made Yale its annual FCS game and alternated between legendary Michie Stadium and the Yale Bowl.

(06-23-2019 10:01 PM)esayem Wrote:  Ah, but you forgot an important point: which of those schools can easily up their athletic expenditures to levels of the P5, that is, if they want to?

That, my friend, is what separates Rice from the collective; that’s why Rice was on the Big XII’s shortlist. Now is the time for Rice admins to define their athletic future.

Rice is on the short list because it's such an awesome school that every B12 Chancellor and President aspires to work there (Well Texas is definitely an equal). They are a mini Stanford or Northwestern.

My view is those are schools worth watching to see if the are investing and hiring the right people to move up. But none of them is there yet. ESPN would say, "well if you add them we will lower the total payment 10% and you can split that with your 12th member." That would kill it. ESPN controls the American's expansion decision even more than the ACC when they said "take Pitt and Syracuse" or the B12 when they said "TCU" then "West Virginia" then the ACC "Louisville" then the B12 "stay at 10 we pay you more, go to 12 we don't pay you more".

Most of the CCGs are on ESPN, and those conferences will not want to cross ESPN. So a waiver is almost automatic (well it's automatic for the first two years anyway, the renewals).

I agree all four would be wise to plan for 2025 as a mission they must not fail. Moving up to the American should be their goal.

(06-23-2019 06:42 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(06-23-2019 05:16 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(06-23-2019 05:07 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  greg flemguar just tweeted that the AAC is meeting with expansion experts David Boren and David State (of CSNBBS fame) at the DFW airport tonight

Even though this was the first realignment transaction in eons DavidSt didn’t call ahead of time, it shows the national reputation capital he’s built-up that conferences are hiring him as a consultant.

Or David Boren IS David State!

come on man don't insult David like that

(06-23-2019 10:01 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(06-23-2019 09:52 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(06-23-2019 09:00 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I think the AAC stays at 11. No one willing to join adds real value.

This is correct. ESPN is the elephant in the room.

ESPN has veto power, as they tell the AAC, "school A adds value, school B makes no difference, school C reduces value." ESPN can and will adjust up or down the package value based on the AAC decision. They may not have a rep in the room, but the AAC will be asking them questions on the hallway every ten minutes (so to speak).

Ask yourself, of the schools who have the athletic budget in range of the current AAC members (and I am strteching it by $5M to include UAB) do any of these move the dial for ESPN?

School (full time UG enrollment) Athletic Expenditures
Rice (3,902) ....... $42,118,864
ODU (15,201) ..... $40,827,956
UMass (21,481) ... $38,693,652
UAB (9,630) ........ $34,824,098

The answer is definitely no. They would likely lower the value of the American by their addition.

My WAG is ESPN will make them stay at 11 and adjust the total payouts to be revenue neutral for schools losing UConn -same per school payout, same conference overhead cut- and maybe even give a small bump (as in 1% to 2%) if they go to 20 basketball games to recover the lost inventory volume.

As for the waiver to have uneven play, that is pretty automatic for the first two years and I don't foresee a problem with the first renewal for the 3rd and 4th seasons - no conference will want to cross ESPN who pays for most of the Bowl games and several conferences CCGs. 2025 is when things will finally be settled, and the waiver will be the least concern.

Ah, but you forgot an important point: which of those schools can easily up their athletic expenditures to levels of the P5, that is, if they want to?

That, my friend, is what separates Rice from the collective; that’s why Rice was on the Big XII’s shortlist. Now is the time for Rice admins to define their athletic future.

I think Rice made the Big 12 final cut because of academic prestige, which matters to the university presidents who ultimately make these calls.

As FT said at the time, while to an AD or a coach or a fan, Rice athletics is low level operation, to a university president, getting the same job at Rice would be about the same as a football coach getting the head job at Texas A&M or Wisconsin. So they are going to treat a school like Rice with respect well above their athletic value even if ultimately they do not get invited.

I guess never say never, but I would be shocked if the AAC added Rice. The conference already regrets adding a schools for academics and market as it stands (Tulane). They aren't going to double down on it.

(06-24-2019 09:37 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  I guess never say never, but I would be shocked if the AAC added Rice. The conference already regrets adding a schools for academics and market as it stands (Tulane). They aren't going to double down on it.

FWIW, as a USF backer i like Tulane in the AAC and always have. Good memories of competing against them in the 1990s in other conferences, and a great school in arguably America's most interesting city.

(06-24-2019 12:00 AM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  

(06-23-2019 06:42 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(06-23-2019 05:16 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(06-23-2019 05:07 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  greg flemguar just tweeted that the AAC is meeting with expansion experts David Boren and David State (of CSNBBS fame) at the DFW airport tonight

Even though this was the first realignment transaction in eons DavidSt didn’t call ahead of time, it shows the national reputation capital he’s built-up that conferences are hiring him as a consultant.

Or David Boren IS David State!

come on man don't insult David like that

Which one?

who will the AAC invite? Who knows. lots of candidates for sure.

if you look at things from a future perspective and not a past one, who the AAC SHOULD invite is obvious....it's JMU.

let's look at the top collegiate sports played and how the Dukes fare:

Football: FCS powerhouse. won its last 2 games against AAC foes (ECU and SMU) with lower scholarship requirements and playing away from home.
Regularly packs 25,000+ football stadium. Plans to expand to 40,000 already in place. Just waiting for FBS to do so.


Men's basketball: improving and opening a brand new $88 million dollar arena in 2020 that will be a game changer for the program.
http://www.jmuconvo.com/


Women's Basketball: won 24+ games for 15 straight seasons with 11 straight postseason appearances. one of the top 5 all time winning programs in women's history. Regularly outdraws P5 programs in attendance with crowds over 3,000.

Softball: regular Top 25 program, been to 2 Super Regionals in last 4 years and one hit away from World Series in 2016. A powerhouse program.

Baseball: ehhh.....moving on.....

Men's Soccer: Made Elite Eight last year losing 2-1 to Michigan State. Returns most of team and should be ranked in Top 25 preseason in 2019

Women's Soccer: traditionally strong but up and down over the years lately. Usually in NCAA's every other year or so.

Women's Lacrosse: regular Top 10 program that won the NATIONAL title in 2018 after tournament wins over Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and Boston College in the final.

extremely passionate student body of 20,000 (we are not a small school) and alumni base that consistently draws crowds home and away, has high ratings on ESPN and has hosted football College GameDay twice with two of the largest crowds the show has ever had and pulls students and has alumni that are heavily located in strong media markets like Washington DC, Richmond and across the Mid Atlantic.

don't get stuck looking at the past in choosing a member. Look at the future and the ceiling of programs. You won't find any higher than James Madison's.

(06-23-2019 03:07 PM)esayem Wrote:  The American is trending southwest with the HQ and tourney in Texas.

IF, and that's a HUGE IF, the AAC lands Army, I could see St. Louis being invited as a full member. That would give the conference a major city in which they could plant a flag.

A western division with Army, Navy, Tulane, Houston, SMU, and Tulsa would be manageable for the academies. It would be quite wonky to play a conference game after the CCG though. Like what if they were both undefeated in conference, who goes? Army will NOT play in a division with the Florida teams.

I just don't see Army wanting to subject the troops to playing future professional athletes week in and week out. Hell, didn't play a game AT Yale recently?

If Army would become a football member of the AAC the Army/Navy game would have to be played before conference championship game or the AAC would not meet the requirement to have a championship game.

I'll make a wacky prediction...

The AAC will try for Army, but moving the Army-Navy game to Thanksgiving weekend from Heisman weekend will make that a no-go. So they'll try with Air Force, who says yes. Air Force puts their Olympic sports in the Big Sky.

The Mountain West invites UTEP to replace Air Force.

Rice goes independent and puts Olympic sports in the Missouri Valley.

C-USA loses two Texas schools, goes down to 12, and simply shifts Middle Tennessee to the West.

Crazier things have happened. Don't forget Denver was once in the Sun Belt or that West Virginia is in the Big 12.

(06-24-2019 10:31 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  I'll make a wacky prediction...

The AAC will try for Army, but moving the Army-Navy game to Thanksgiving weekend from Heisman weekend will make that a no-go. So they'll try with Air Force, who says yes. Air Force puts their Olympic sports in the Big Sky.

The Mountain West invites UTEP to replace Air Force.

Rice goes independent and puts Olympic sports in the Missouri Valley.

C-USA loses two Texas schools, goes down to 12, and simply shifts Middle Tennessee to the West.

Crazier things have happened. Don't forget Denver was once in the Sun Belt or that West Virginia is in the Big 12.

I think it's Army or Air Force too....a la Navy.

it will be a short sighted and wrong decision over the long haul for the AAC, but that's what i see them doing.

no need to go beyond 11 in other sports. you can mostly function just fine. football needs an even number for many reasons.

army or air force for fb only makes perfect sense.

(06-24-2019 09:51 AM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  who will the AAC invite? Who knows. lots of candidates for sure.

if you look at things from a future perspective and not a past one, who the AAC SHOULD invite is obvious....it's JMU.

let's look at the top collegiate sports played and how the Dukes fare:

Football: FCS powerhouse. won its last 2 games against AAC foes (ECU and SMU) with lower scholarship requirements and playing away from home.
Regularly packs 25,000+ football stadium. Plans to expand to 40,000 already in place. Just waiting for FBS to do so.


Men's basketball: improving and opening a brand new $88 million dollar arena in 2020 that will be a game changer for the program.
http://www.jmuconvo.com/


Women's Basketball: won 24+ games for 15 straight seasons with 11 straight postseason appearances. one of the top 5 all time winning programs in women's history. Regularly outdraws P5 programs in attendance with crowds over 3,000.

Softball: regular Top 25 program, been to 2 Super Regionals in last 4 years and one hit away from World Series in 2016. A powerhouse program.

Baseball: ehhh.....moving on.....

Men's Soccer: Made Elite Eight last year losing 2-1 to Michigan State. Returns most of team and should be ranked in Top 25 preseason in 2019

Women's Soccer: traditionally strong but up and down over the years lately. Usually in NCAA's every other year or so.

Women's Lacrosse: regular Top 10 program that won the NATIONAL title in 2018 after tournament wins over Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and Boston College in the final.

extremely passionate student body of 20,000 (we are not a small school) and alumni base that consistently draws crowds home and away, has high ratings on ESPN and has hosted football College GameDay twice with two of the largest crowds the show has ever had and pulls students and has alumni that are heavily located in strong media markets like Washington DC, Richmond and across the Mid Atlantic.

don't get stuck looking at the past in choosing a member. Look at the future and the ceiling of programs. You won't find any higher than James Madison's.

I can see JMU replacing UAB in C-USA.

BTW, why would Air Force want to leave the MWC? It's pretty close to AAC football.

(06-24-2019 10:31 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  The AAC will try for Army, but moving the Army-Navy game to Thanksgiving weekend from Heisman weekend will make that a no-go. So they'll try with Air Force, who says yes. Air Force puts their Olympic sports in the Big Sky.

Or, does Air Force move football to the AAC while moving their other sports to the Summit? Denver is already in the Summit. Travel to the midwest can't be any harder or more expensive than travel to the mountain states, especially if PUFW and/or WIU leave the Summit.

OTOH, would Air Force be willing to trade football games with Colorado State and Wyoming for games with Tulsa, SMU, and Houston? They already play Navy OOC. I'm not sure how AAC teams move the needle more for them than the current MWC teams do.

(06-24-2019 10:54 AM)johnintx Wrote:  

(06-24-2019 10:31 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  The AAC will try for Army, but moving the Army-Navy game to Thanksgiving weekend from Heisman weekend will make that a no-go. So they'll try with Air Force, who says yes. Air Force puts their Olympic sports in the Big Sky.

Or, does Air Force move football to the AAC while moving their other sports to the Summit? Denver is already in the Summit. Travel to the midwest can't be any harder or more expensive than travel to the mountain states, especially if PUFW and/or WIU leave the Summit.

OTOH, would Air Force be willing to trade football games with Colorado State and Wyoming for games with Tulsa, SMU, and Houston? They already play Navy OOC. I'm not sure how AAC teams move the needle more for them than the current MWC teams do.

There is certainly more money---and playing in the same division with Navy will open up a OOC slot for AF. So, they do gain some OOC scheduling flexibility if they opted for the move. Also---if Air Force said "yes"....I think that could very well make Army much more interested in joining the league.

(06-22-2019 10:50 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  You can have an AAC with a division of 5 and a division of 6 and still play a full round robin within both divisions. It's just that 2 teams in the division of 5 end up playing only 7 conference games instead of 8. (For everyone to have 8 games, those 2 teams could play each other a second time, but this is probably not desirable.) The teams that play only 7 games can be rotated every year. Ranking by conference record would have to be based on winning percentage rather than simply wins and losses.

Another option would be to designate certain OOC games as conf games for the shortfall games. Not ideal, but mathematically possible.

(06-24-2019 10:12 AM)ValleyBoy Wrote:  

(06-23-2019 03:07 PM)esayem Wrote:  The American is trending southwest with the HQ and tourney in Texas.

IF, and that's a HUGE IF, the AAC lands Army, I could see St. Louis being invited as a full member. That would give the conference a major city in which they could plant a flag.

A western division with Army, Navy, Tulane, Houston, SMU, and Tulsa would be manageable for the academies. It would be quite wonky to play a conference game after the CCG though. Like what if they were both undefeated in conference, who goes? Army will NOT play in a division with the Florida teams.

I just don't see Army wanting to subject the troops to playing future professional athletes week in and week out. Hell, didn't play a game AT Yale recently?

If Army would become a football member of the AAC the Army/Navy game would have to be played before conference championship game or the AAC would not meet the requirement to have a championship game.

Just make the game and OOC game and give them a full 8 game conference schedule that is complete the week before championship Saturday. The issue can be worked around---but, your correct--- it does operate smoother if the added team is Air Force.

(06-24-2019 11:52 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Just make the game and OOC game and give them a full 8 game conference schedule that is complete the week before championship Saturday.

Sort of defeats the purpose of adding them, doesn't it? Also plays havoc on the schedule, to have two teams in the same conference who never play each other, in conference.

For me, the question is this...what schools can actually afford to join the AAC?

Half the schools in the conference can't afford to be in the conference either. No conference loses more on athletics than the AAC. Not even close.

Initial Outlay: Probably around 10 million dollars for exit fees to the existing conference, entry fees to the AAC, and other transition charges. This amount may actually be higher.

Annual Outlay: Roughly 20 million dollars more per team per year for CUSA, SBC, and MAC teams.
Annual Increase in Revenue: Call it 10 million more per team per year, and that's probably generous.

So the 10 year INCREMENTAL cost of leaving the Belt, CUSA, or the MAC to join the AAC is at least 100 million dollars that's virtually guaranteed to be sunk and it could be as high as DOUBLE that amount. I suspect it is closer to 200 million than 100 million. Remember that the higher profile coaches and other expenses will happen at the beginning, while the increased revenue will probably take time to seep in, if it does so at all.
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And there's another issue. Many of the candidate schools are already making their students spend millions on non-voluntary athletic fees as it is. Adding more to it could really cause real outrage. Some of the numbers are truly staggering, especially at the smaller enrollment schools. 6-8 grand for a 4 year degree in non-voluntary athletic subsidies at UAB or USM or Ohio? That's how you get a program shut down with the students demanding that it be shut down, rather than demanding to save it.

----

Here's the profile of a school that would be a good 'financial fit' for the conference
1) Large endowment
2) Large undergraduate enrollment
3) Relatively large AD revenues.

The number of schools in the Belt, CUSA, or the MAC that have all three... zero. Neither Army nor UMass nor JMU qualify either.
------

The math just fails for just about every school in CUSA, SBC, and the MAC.

-----

I'm sure lots of schools *want* to be in the AAC. But most of them simply can't afford it. The only public school that will bite will be one that is desperate or foolish. The MWC schools most likely stay where they are. BYU has a special TV deal. Liberty is, well, Liberty. They'll flush hundred of millions down the drain if asked, but they're probably not being asked. Army *might* jump. UMass might double down on AD losses, but I think that would probably cause a revolt among a student body and faculty already grumbling about athletic costs. JMU might jump, but doubtful the AAC asks them (and a QUARTER of the cost of a JMU degree is already athletic subsidies). Some school with an out of touch Board of Trustees might roll the dice, I suppose, but they'd be fools to do so.

And the AAC isn't likely to bring on board a school that is financially unable to sustain the losses required to compete in AAC. Regardless of the willingness of whomever is on the board of trustees at any individual institution at the time.

^ Well, that's a damn good point as well.