(06-24-2019 02:57 PM)mturn017 Wrote: (06-24-2019 02:39 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: For me, the question is this...what schools can actually afford to join the AAC?
Half the schools in the conference can't afford to be in the conference either. No conference loses more on athletics than the AAC. Not even close.
Initial Outlay: Probably around 10 million dollars for exit fees to the existing conference, entry fees to the AAC, and other transition charges. This amount may actually be higher.
Annual Outlay: Roughly 20 million dollars more per team per year for CUSA, SBC, and MAC teams.
Annual Increase in Revenue: Call it 10 million more per team per year, and that's probably generous.
So the 10 year INCREMENTAL cost of leaving the Belt, CUSA, or the MAC to join the AAC is at least 100 million dollars that's virtually guaranteed to be sunk and it could be as high as DOUBLE that amount. I suspect it is closer to 200 million than 100 million. Remember that the higher profile coaches and other expenses will happen at the beginning, while the increased revenue will probably take time to seep in, if it does so at all.
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And there's another issue. Many of the candidate schools are already making their students spend millions on non-voluntary athletic fees as it is. Adding more to it could really cause real outrage. Some of the numbers are truly staggering, especially at the smaller enrollment schools. 6-8 grand for a 4 year degree in non-voluntary athletic subsidies at UAB or USM or Ohio? That's how you get a program shut down with the students demanding that it be shut down, rather than demanding to save it.
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Here's the profile of a school that would be a good 'financial fit' for the conference
1) Large endowment
2) Large undergraduate enrollment
3) Relatively large AD revenues.
The number of schools in the Belt, CUSA, or the MAC that have all three... zero. Neither Army nor UMass nor JMU qualify either.
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The math just fails for just about every school in CUSA, SBC, and the MAC.
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I'm sure lots of schools *want* to be in the AAC. But most of them simply can't afford it. The only public school that will bite will be one that is desperate or foolish. The MWC schools most likely stay where they are. BYU has a special TV deal. Liberty is, well, Liberty. They'll flush hundred of millions down the drain if asked, but they're probably not being asked. Army *might* jump. UMass might double down on AD losses, but I think that would probably cause a revolt among a student body and faculty already grumbling about athletic costs. JMU might jump, but doubtful the AAC asks them (and a QUARTER of the cost of a JMU degree is already athletic subsidies). Some school with an out of touch Board of Trustees might roll the dice, I suppose, but they'd be fools to do so.
And the AAC isn't likely to bring on board a school that is financially unable to sustain the losses required to compete in AAC. Regardless of the willingness of whomever is on the board of trustees at any individual institution at the time.
I don't know. A 20 million dollar more outlay would make us the top spending team in the AAC. I think we could do it for cheaper. It's less of a jump than was the CAA to CUSA for us. No schollies to add, no title 9, travel about the same. Our fans would chomp at the bit to have those FB and BB schedules compared to what we have. I'm pretty confident with the increased revenue we would make it work.
I may be incorrect, but my understanding is that the Commonwealth of Virginia requires its public institutions to report significant outlays allied to, but not necessarily part of (e.g., cheerleaders, certain recruiting expenses, band, etc.) athletics in its NCAA financial reporting. Even UVA and VT report far higher losses than their ACC peers. GMU, a basketball only school in a compact conference, reports higher athletic spending than half of FBS playing CUSA. Someting is going on with the Virginia numbers. To be clear, Delaware, Uconn and UMass also report staggeringly high athletic department budgets too.
ODU paid its head coach 650k a year. The average head coaches salary in the AAC is over a million more a year. And that's just the head coach. One person. Now, double (or triple) all the other football coaching salaries and associated staff and see where you land. Then, there's the recruiting expenses. And basketball expenses too. I suspect that an ODU move to the AAC would involve pretty much the same increase in spending that its other CUSA peers would experience. If ODU actually does spend, on a peer basis, that amount on athletics, then perhaps they could fit it in by reducing costs elsewhere in the department (but watch out for Title IX).
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ODU is one of the stronger candidates for AAC inclusion from CUSA, the Belt and the MAC. Lets look at it.
Endowment: 240 million. High for a CUSA school. But would be only ahead of ECU and Memphis (and barely so). But its enough.
Enrollment: 18,000 undergrads. ODU would be the smallest public school in the AAC.
Athletic Department Revenue: 17 million. That is actually a great number for a CUSA school. But IIRC, ODU has a small stadium that they do a pretty good job of filling up. Without spending 100 million or more on a new stadium, it might be hard to dramatically increase that revenue (outside of the AAC TV deal). Basketball revenue would increase, but I'm not sure that is going to make the difference up.
Athletic Department loss and sustainability: ODU loses 28 million and change each year on athletics, or roughly $1600 per year per undergraduate student (or $6400 per undergraduate degree). That's actually quite high. My understanding is that the Delegates and Senators in Richmond are more aware of this situation than in other states. How much should a nursing student going to ODU part time have to borrow to fund ODU's athletic program as a condition of going to their public University? Right now its $6400 a degree. Add another 10 million a year to that, and it gets up to around $8600 a degree. If I'm right, and ODU really will lose 10 million more a year in AAC, this is a very dangerous game. You could join the AAC and it might work out. But its equally likely that the Legislature gets involved or the students get fed up and you lose your program.
Impact of additional revenues: They will go up, but you'll have to pay to get out of CUSA, you'll have to pay to join the AAC, you'll have to forego certain payments as well.
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And ODU is probably one of the better financially positions institutions for admission to the AAC. But if I were on the Board at ODU, or a Delegate in Richmond, I'd seriously question whether adding millions in expenses for an athletic program that already loses close to 300 million dollars a decade is a wise decision for the stakeholders of the Commonwealth.
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At some point, the deficits have to start falling. Moving to FBS only expanded them. And the AAC appears to have even higher average deficits. While its doubtful that non-P5 football will ever be truly cost neutral, they're no reason for the deficits to continuously expand.