1. Boise St: 10-1 (MWC) wins over two P5 schools including over ranked WSU...projecting them to be ranked highest in the access bowl committee rankings. In a tie at 6-1 with Wyoming in the MWC-Mountain Division.

3. Western Michigan: (MAC) 10-0. Wins at two bad Big 10 teams.

3. Navy (AAC) 8-2. Still has a an AAC game on the road, plus the AACCG game, plus the Army game

4.Temple: (AAC) 8-3, probably no chance but should end up in AACCG vs Navy

4. USF: (AAC) 9-2 needs Temple to lose to ECU to get into the AACCG

Cheers!

If Memphis or Navy win out, that means they would have beaten Houston. Memphis would have the win over Ole Miss. Navy would have the win over Notre Dame. Memphis and Navy IMO are 2/3 .

to me it's-
1 Houston
2 Memphis
3 Navy
4 San Diego St
5 Boise St
6 Air Force
7 Western Michigan

Lets not forget Toledo who is still unbeaten who could face Western Michigan in the MAC championship.

(09-25-2016 01:05 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  Lets not forget Toledo who is still unbeaten who could face Western Michigan in the MAC championship.

you show just how little you know. Toledo is in the same division as Western Michigan. Toledo is #8. Although they may be in trouble vs teams who have 1 loss even.

(09-25-2016 11:52 AM)stever20 Wrote:  If Memphis or Navy win out, that means they would have beaten Houston. Memphis would have the win over Ole Miss. Navy would have the win over Notre Dame. Memphis and Navy IMO are 2/3 .

to me it's-
1 Houston
2 Memphis
3 Navy
4 San Diego St
5 Boise St
6 Air Force
7 Western Michigan

My ratings are based on right now. Right now WMU is 4-0 with 2 wins @ Big ten schools and a win over a 3-0 Georgia Southern team. This is a fluid thing.
Cheers!

that's fine- but I think you would acknowledge that they are #7 in terms of who controls their own fate. Like it or not, the MAC just doesn't have the respect the AAC or MWC has.

1. Houston - @Navy, Louisville, @Memphis, *USF AACC

2. Boise State - BYU, @Air Force, *SD-State MWC
2. Memphis - @Ole Miss, @Navy, USF, Houston, *USF AACC

4. Air Force - Navy, Boise-St, *SD-State MWC
4. Navy - @Air Force, Houston, Memphis, @USF, Notre Dame, *USF AACC
4. Toledo - @BYU, CMU, @WMU, *Akron MACC
4. Western Michigan - @CMU, Toledo, *Akron MACC

8. San Diego State - *Boise State MWC

- An undefeated AAC champion will go to the NY6 bowl. Clear as a bell. But being undefeated is probably a low chance. There'll be some beating-up-on-eachother. Houston has the best chance to come out unscathed, but they also have to play Louisville.

- Overall, SD-State is in the worst spot, IMO. NIU turned out to go down the toilet, so their SoS schedule really took a hit. Unless 2-2 Cal makes a big run in the P12, they have the worst shot if compared to any undefeated teams. Even beating an undefeated Boise in the MWC won't give them enough to overtake a 1-loss Houston (a loss to Louisville).

- Toledo doesn't play a P5 team this year. If in the final week they beat an undefeated WMU team, that'll help + beating @BYU, the only undefeated team they'd trump would be maybe SD-State. Depends on how Cal & Boise would end up.

- I don't expect AF or Navy to go undefeated

- Memphis? Yeah, good luck. No way are they going undefeated. Incredibly tough schedule.

- Western Michigan needs to beat an undefeated Toledo + have the MAC East Champs (probably Akron; maybe Ohio) to be an 8+ win team to beat in MACC. But still, WMU would need a 1L Boise, or have SD State to win the MWC, and Houston or Memphis in the AAC to be 2L which is possible (very for Memphis), or South Florida/Cinci to win it.

Difficult Situations:
- Houston loses to Louisville, but runs table in AAC @ 12-1. Boise St goes undefeated beating undefeated SD-State in MWC @ 13-0. Tough call.
- WMU goes undefeated @ 13-0, and Boise wins the MWC but suffers a loss mid-season, being 12-1 (while S Florida/Cinci wins AAC)

(09-25-2016 01:46 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(09-25-2016 11:52 AM)stever20 Wrote:  If Memphis or Navy win out, that means they would have beaten Houston. Memphis would have the win over Ole Miss. Navy would have the win over Notre Dame. Memphis and Navy IMO are 2/3 .

to me it's-
1 Houston
2 Memphis
3 Navy
4 San Diego St
5 Boise St
6 Air Force
7 Western Michigan

My ratings are based on right now. Right now WMU is 4-0 with 2 wins @ Big ten schools and a win over a 3-0 Georgia Southern team. This is a fluid thing.
Cheers!

The win over gasouthern is more impressive than the wins over the big10 powder puffs.

(09-25-2016 01:46 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(09-25-2016 11:52 AM)stever20 Wrote:  If Memphis or Navy win out, that means they would have beaten Houston. Memphis would have the win over Ole Miss. Navy would have the win over Notre Dame. Memphis and Navy IMO are 2/3 .

to me it's-
1 Houston
2 Memphis
3 Navy
4 San Diego St
5 Boise St
6 Air Force
7 Western Michigan

My ratings are based on right now. Right now WMU is 4-0 with 2 wins @ Big ten schools and a win over a 3-0 Georgia Southern team. This is a fluid thing.
Cheers!

The win over gasouthern is more impressive than the wins over the big10 powder puffs.

(09-25-2016 02:05 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  1. Houston - @Navy, Louisville, @Memphis, *USF AACC

2. Boise State - BYU, @Air Force, *SD-State MWC
2. Memphis - @Ole Miss, @Navy, USF, Houston, *USF AACC

4. Air Force - Navy, Boise-St, *SD-State MWC
4. Navy - @Air Force, Houston, Memphis, @USF, Notre Dame, *USF AACC
4. Toledo - @BYU, CMU, @WMU, *Akron MACC
4. Western Michigan - @CMU, Toledo, *Akron MACC

8. San Diego State - *Boise State MWC

- An undefeated AAC champion will go to the NY6 bowl. Clear as a bell. But being undefeated is probably a low chance. There'll be some beating-up-on-eachother. Houston has the best chance to come out unscathed, but they also have to play Louisville.

- Overall, SD-State is in the worst spot, IMO. NIU turned out to go down the toilet, so their SoS schedule really took a hit. Unless 2-2 Cal makes a big run in the P12, they have the worst shot if compared to any undefeated teams. Even beating an undefeated Boise in the MWC won't give them enough to overtake a 1-loss Houston (a loss to Louisville).

- Toledo doesn't play a P5 team this year. If in the final week they beat an undefeated WMU team, that'll help + beating @BYU, the only undefeated team they'd trump would be maybe SD-State. Depends on how Cal & Boise would end up.

- I don't expect AF or Navy to go undefeated

- Memphis? Yeah, good luck. No way are they going undefeated. Incredibly tough schedule.

- Western Michigan needs to beat an undefeated Toledo + have the MAC East Champs (probably Akron; maybe Ohio) to be an 8+ win team to beat in MACC. But still, WMU would need a 1L Boise, or have SD State to win the MWC, and Houston or Memphis in the AAC to be 2L which is possible (very for Memphis), or South Florida/Cinci to win it.

Difficult Situations:
- Houston loses to Louisville, but runs table in AAC @ 12-1. Boise St goes undefeated beating undefeated SD-State in MWC @ 13-0. Tough call.
- WMU goes undefeated @ 13-0, and Boise wins the MWC but suffers a loss mid-season, being 12-1 (while S Florida/Cinci wins AAC)

If the AAC champion only has one loss then they are probably getting the New Year's day game even if the MWC and MAC champions are undefeated, because the AAC is rated as a much tougher conference than the MAC and MWC.

1. SEC 36.98
2 Pac 12 40.08
3 ACC 44.33
4 Big 10 48.31
5 Big 12 48.32
6 AAC 61.94
7 FBS Indep 73.22
8 Mountain West 86.11
9 Mid-American 87.10
10 Sun Belt 95.03
11 Conference USA 101.34


http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Houston has a chance to make history if the first committee poll looks anything like the AP poll.

Alabama, Ohio State, Louisville, Michigan, and Clemson are ahead of them in that order.

#1Alabama plays #11TN and likely will knock them back from passing Houston.
#10Washington plays #7Stanford which will also knock a team away from passing Houston.
#1Alabama also plays #9 Texas A&M
#2 Ohio State and #4 Michigan play each other. And the both play #Wisconsin.

And if Oklahoma beats Texas and Baylor Houston won't have much to fear if they beat Memphis and Louisville.

Nobody is running the table. AAC champ is in.

(09-25-2016 03:57 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Nobody is running the table. AAC champ is in.

It really depends on where they initially rank them. I think the Big 12 and Pac-12 champs are going to be two loss teams this year.

And the Big 10 teams that are ranked will all play each other. And look at Wiconson they play OSU, Michigan, and Nebraska. And if they win their division they could play Michigan/Ohio State a second time making them a 2-3 loss team.

I think Alabama runs the table and that's it.

I think Louisville beats Clemson.

So it really comes down to Houston beating the teams they should beat. And not losing to Memphis or Louisville who both look great.

Conf rankings through week 4:

1) AAC - a lot like last year, Houston, Memphis, and Navy. Although, Temple isn't there this year to put up a fight from the east. I guess it's up to USF to give it a shot.

2) MWC - great to see them bounce back this year. Could be an interesting CCG between SD St and Boise or Air Force.

3) MAC - the west is crushing it and the east is chopped liver. Gonna be tough for Toledo or W Michigan to run the table in the division. I'll be really interested to see how Toledo does at BYU on Friday night.

4) CUSA - S Miss or M Tenn seem like the conf front runners.

4) SB - Troy looks legit, as a potential conf winner.

(09-25-2016 03:57 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Nobody is running the table. AAC champ is in.

I don't think that's true.

The slates are difficult enough ahead of the other teams a few will have a chance to lose and still come back and jump UofH.

Quote:If the AAC champion only has one loss then they are probably getting the New Year's day game even if the MWC and MAC champions are undefeated, because the AAC is rated as a much tougher conference than the MAC and MWC.

If Cinci/SFla wins in the champ game -- it'll be a 2 loss+ team who wins the AAC. Houston could be undefeated going in and lose and will be disqualified from NY6. That opens the doors for an undefeated MAC or SD-State team, or a 1L Boise who wins the MW.

(09-25-2016 04:19 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  

Quote:If the AAC champion only has one loss then they are probably getting the New Year's day game even if the MWC and MAC champions are undefeated, because the AAC is rated as a much tougher conference than the MAC and MWC.

If Cinci/SFla wins in the champ game -- it'll be a 2 loss+ team who wins the AAC. Houston could be undefeated going in and lose and will be disqualified from NY6. That opens the doors for an undefeated MAC or SD-State team, or a 1L Boise who wins the MW.

Cincy has 1 loss. with all conference games left save for a home game with BYU. USF has 1 loss, with only conference games left. So why exactly would they have to have 2 losses?

(09-25-2016 01:46 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  My ratings are based on right now. Right now WMU is 4-0 with 2 wins @ Big ten schools and a win over a 3-0 Georgia Southern team. This is a fluid thing.
Cheers!

Right, teams should be rated on the quality wins they've already earned.

Wins so far:
Houston: Oklahoma, FCS Lamar, Cincinnati, Texas State
SDSU: FCS New Hampshire, Cal, NIU
Boise: UL-Lafayette, Washington State, Oregon State
Memphis: FCS Southeast Missouri State, Kansas, Bowling Green
Western Michigan: Northwestern, FCS North Carolina Central, Illinois, Georgia Southern
Navy: FCS Fordham, UConn, Tulane
Air Force: FCS Abilene Christian, Georgia State, Utah State
Toledo: Arkansas State, FCS Maine, Fresno State

Houston is obviously in the lead in quality wins. Houston, Boise, and Western Michigan are the only ones on this list that have 3 wins over FBS teams. (In other words, it's still early.)

It would be interested where NDSU will wind up in the polls as well. They are still be voted inside the top 30. Their win over Iowa might be interested to see a possible FCS team get chosen for a Bowl game this year as well.

What an awesome MWC Championship that would be if it was 12-0 Boise St vs 12-0 SDSU