(03-03-2019 05:53 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote: (03-03-2019 02:11 PM)JRsec Wrote: (03-03-2019 01:28 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote: The Jon Wefold proposal has generated much chat about the PAC12 & Big12 eventunally assimmulating in some fashion. There's going to be rumors when anything is advanced that suggests networking, inclusive of any advocacy for cooperative scheduling. Some are implying the perceived best of the PAC12, and the perceived best of the B12, will form a new conference.
The problem with identifying and predicting SEC member additions, is that indicators for change to come, have not come into focus yet. It is long obvious that OU, UT, and KU, present the best value. That may apply to multiple suitors.
Slive would have had a plan A and a plan B. We assume Sankey and staff have one also. That would take off-the-record collaboration even though a window of opportunity is a short few years away.
SEC has to be, in a confidential way, dialoguing with some degree of seriousness with OU and/or UT. Kansas and maybe one or two others, are engaged in informal contact.
I do believe ESPN in particular, along with other broadcast companies, have somewhat certain designs they want to push. They may differ as well.
There is going to be some kind of suprise, somewhere.
Right now, the PAC12 is showing a weakening of financial leverage, while the B12 continues to be perceived as vulnerable for near future expansion. Shall the two meet in a bold attempt to resolve both matters? Perhaps, if the SEC and/or the BIG just sit back. But that looks unlikely.
OU may hold more cards in this than Texas.
Actually O.F., it's the one who feels the pressure to move that holds the fewest cards. Texas is more secure. What Oklahoma holds is the interest of the SEC / Big 10 / & PAC who all see acquiring them as a way to get Texas to move.
The SEC's motives will not be very different than those of ESPN because ESPN is the one who would have to monetize the move, perhaps with some help from CBS.
The issue for the Big 10 is truly that FOX is their backer and ESPN has ties on Texas until 2031. I think this is why the Big 10 will focus as often discussed on Oklahoma and Kansas. However the upcoming Oklahoma T3 rights deal will be interesting. Lately ESPN has been signing schools to T3 deals which had been under FOX due to the local RSNs.
The PAC really cannot monetize a deal to land Texas or Oklahoma profitably.
So, if their is movement and it involves Oklahoma the only destinations would be either to the Big 10 or SEC. Then it comes down to the question of whether OSU is indeed an obstacle, or does Oklahoma want to risk Texas moving to the SEC. Both of those are real problems for the Sooners. And they are problems that only the SEC could resolve fully.
Kansas is the door prize if Texas refuses to move anywhere.
As to your insinuation of risk in communications, that is easily sidestepped with communications between state schools. Texas / A&M scheduling talks is an apt cover. Kansas or Oklahoma would be a bit trickier. Like Missouri it would have to be carried on between former colleagues as it was with Bernie Machen and the Missouri president. That's much easier now with Long at Kansas. I don't know where the relationships line up with OU.
If the Commissioners of the P5, and several select Presidents, as well as pertinent broadcast executives, meet at a Dallas Marriott, and the powwow comes up with a plan whereby WVU (maybe Baylor too) heads to the ACC. OU and Kansas head to the BIG. Okie St., TTU, KSU, and TCU go to the PAC12, and the SEC gets Texas and Iowa State.
Nawh, OU wouldn't want to lose both Texas & oSu. The PAC12 would insist on more prime choices. BIG would take it, and the SEC and the ACC would probably take it.
The Big12 schools, excluding Baylor perhaps, may buy such.
Just a fantasy, I suppose.
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If you are looking for a fantasy work around it would be more along these lines (although very unlikely) NO CHANGES DUE TO ALSTON:
Oklahoma and Colorado to the Big 10 (I know UC loves California but their revenue even compared to the current Big 12 is hurting and their GOR is up in 2024).
Texas and Texas Tech to the SEC
Baylor and West Virginia to the ACC
TCU, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State to the PAC
If we wind up with an all P4 schedule at some point in the future and each conference has 9 conference games then OU would be able to play OSU annually as their PAC game, and Texas as their SEC game.
SAME SCENARIO WITH ALSTON:
SEC adds Kansas, Texas, and Texas Tech (Vanderbilt moves to everything but football).
ACC adds Baylor, TCU, and West Virginia (Wake Forest moves to everything but football)
PAC adds Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Iowa State (Oklahoma can't justify the Big 10 because without OU the PAC takes nobody and OSU is left out.)
But that's the my new everybody from the Big 12 gets placed fantasy scenario, emphasis on fantasy.
REAL WORLD SCENARIO:
Texas wants regional play and Texas schools.
Texas and Texas Tech to the SEC.
Oklahoma wants prestige to salve that Grapes of Wrath psyche.
Oklahoma and Kansas to the Big 10.
The ACC wants the most profitable ending without upsetting Notre Dame.
T.C.U. and W.V.U. to the ACC. (WVU fills in the footprint and TCU provides a large market for the ACCN.)
Now the 1-5 largest revenue schools in the Big 12 are accounted for plus #9 Tech on the coattails of UT.
Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State merge with Central Florida, South Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, Connecticut, Army, Navy, Air Force, and East Carolina, Colorado State, and Brigham Young to form a new P5. There's your escape net and umbrella to cover the moves.
Air Force, Brigham Young, Colorado State, Kansas State
Baylor, Houston, Iowa State, Oklahoma State
Army, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Memphis
Central Florida, East Carolina, Navy, South Florida