(05-14-2024 01:32 AM)murrdcu Wrote: (05-13-2024 11:23 PM)JRsec Wrote: When UNC, Florida State and Clemson shake loose the SEC should give Kansas a call. Follow that up with Virginia, Duke, Virginia Tech and N.C. State. If FSU bolts to the Big 10 with Georgia Tech then pick up Miami.
We are then done to the West, and done overall.
Sec should land a nice haul during this round. Unfortunately, FSU appears B1G bound—could change—but not holding my breathe. Messageboard rumors of Virginia already turning down a SEC offer makes me think uVA and state politicians could try and rebuild the ACC as opposed to leaving it.if UNC unshackles themselves from Nc state, I expect them to follow Clemson to the sec. Remaining options would be Kansas, Duke, maybe Miami, to round up to 20. Dark horse would be a WVu or, the golden whale, Notre Dame.
You just trying to piss me off? Don't believe message board nonsense! ESPN is controlling this. If they don't like the distribution of schools, which is wholly in their self-interest all they have to do is extend the contract as that is their legal option to do. These matters are handled in private because NDAs are involved and we are not even to the NDA stage. There is literally no way in hell any message board poster could possibly know what the hell is going on!
In 2012 I had the PAC 12 as likely to be absorbed by the Big 10. Why? Small money moves to bigger money and institutions move to culturally similar institutions. I had the SEC growing out of the Big 12 and ACC. And the emergence of 2 or 3 conferences as the conclusion of it all. I had a good idea of where we would be at this point because of personal knowledge of how the SEC looked at expansion in 1991 and what their objectives were. And because I knew people involved in it.
I explained a lot of the motivations in a thread about Time, Pressure and Economic Disparity.
No doubt FOX wants into part of the Southeast, and no doubt ESPN doesn't want them here. The issue for FOX is that ESPN has a GOR and an option to extend and can make the process of taking what they want now practically impossible. The only way FOX gets anything at all is if ESPN makes the dissolution of the ACC, or the leaving of it possible by not extending that contract and they only way they do that is if ESPN gets what it wants and what it wants is pretty clear based upon where their revenue comes from through the ACC contract.
They need control of Virginia and North Carolina and Florida.
That means they'll move at least 5 schools from those states to the SEC, two from Virginia because you need two to dominate the market, two from North Carolina for the same reason, and one of FSU or Miami with FSU providing a super majority of viewers in their state. Clemson is a lesser priority because South Carolina is a small state. If ESPN gets the two Virginia schools lined up and the two North Carolina schools and decides which Florida school they want then they'll make a decision on the only other valuable product left to them in the ACC, Duke which is a national draw in hoops.
That's 7, and their interest in Kansas makes 8.
If the SEC were calling the shots here, and they aren't, we would be looking at Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Clemson and FSU or possibly Louisville or Miami to go with Kansas and Georgia Tech to 24. Why? We see ourselves as mostly a Deep South Conference. But we recognize the business synergy which is the byproduct of taking the best schools from a new area which are connected to each other.
Duke, North Carolina and Virginia are connected in ways that they are not connected just by sharing a state. Florida is Deep South and the SEC would like nothing better than to keep competitors out of it, thankfully ESPN feels similarly. The only reason I mention Louisville is because of how much revenue they generate. The history and energy between Oklahoma, Missouri and Kansas is solid and Texas and A&M are now part of it. The regionality of those for Arkansas would improve cross state interest a great deal, particularly with Texas being an old historic rival.
Florida State, if it alienates the SEC and ESPN won't have any Southern neighbors to play if they head to the Big 10, they know this. They've hyped this angle of the Big 10, because they were certain the SEC would take them in an expansion to 20. No school wants to alienate a large portion of their fan base and donor base. Donors usually make money from the programs regional play and many of them conduct business in the skyboxes on Saturdays. They usually have businesses that are multi state regional businesses in scope and sometimes as with Walmart national and international. Tim Cook CEO of Apple is an Auburn graduate and a graduate of Duke for his masters. Jimmy Raines owner of Yellow Wood is an example of a multistate regional donor. Florida State, like Oklahoma, where all the message board talk was they were headed to the Big 10, and their chat rooms were full of Yankee posters making bold and brash statements stayed local for sports because that is what pleased their fans. Fans and donors are the lifeblood of the athletic programs at universities. And good businesses never piss off their customers and the fans of the customers of the schools.
When Super conferences grow to 20 or 24 there won't be room in the schedules for in state rivals let alone next state rivals. Sankey knows this. Greg Fluguar and the Dude, and any other bloggers fishing for nickels and dimes on YouTube either don't know this or don't care because they are too busy making crap up.
One West Coast news reporter took one of my posts here for an article a few years back. One so called online magazine here in the South copied an entire post of mine changed literally one word and claimed it as their own a month after I posted it on this board. They've done similar things to a few other of our posters. There isn't an ounce of honesty in those jerks. Fluguar reads this board because 3 or 4 years ago before any of you knew who the hell the fat bastard was he cited my assessment of the Big 10's revenue from their conference network, which I cited from Kagan an accounting firm and called me a liar when he couldn't back up the fact that they lost a significant amount of value with cord cutting. He likely read my argument with Frank a couple of years ago in which I said that the Big 10 would eventually grow out of the PAC 12 and Frank denied it and called it looney.
I didn't make the prediction out of thin air but simple business logic. They are like institutions which share history through the Rose Bowl, and the West Coast largely exploded in population following WWII and that growth was predominantly from the Northern Midwest and of course from the migrants in the Southwest but then they didn't have the money to go to PAC 12 schools. Toss in the Big 10 nearly doubling up PAC 12 revenues and the conclusion was merely logical. I think the Big 10 used him as the SEC used Clay Travis in 2011 to prepare the fan base for moves they might not expect otherwise.
But if you believe nothing else believe this. Business synergy and mutual self-interest, and fanbase culture will guide whatever moves are about to happen. ESPN and the SEC interests line up for the most part and the pro rata clause was placed in the SEC's new contract to accommodate whoever it is ESPN wants to shelter in the SEC to preserve their revenue model. Virginia, North Carolina and Florida are states of 43 million in combined population where it takes more than the state Flagship to control the best advertising rates and advertising pays ESPN's bills. Texas is a state 30 million. ESPN will fight tooth and nail to hold onto leverage in those 4 states. The SEC has leverage already in Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee, and soon will have it in Oklahoma. South Carolina is a state of 5 million and if we take Clemson we'll have that too. In Kentucky we have the majority, but not the super majority but then it too is a small state and not considered Deep South or football first.
That's what is driving these moves. The only reason FSU to the Big 10 is being talked is FOX wants them. They don't fit the Big 10 profile in academics and they don't fit it in terms of location. Miami does. And if FSU goes SEC then Miami going to the Big 10 doesn't impact ESPN's revenue in any big way, just like Georgia Tech which doesn't even carry Atlanta, Georgia does by a 52% to 45% margin with Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee and Clemson carrying the rest does. ESPN won't lose money if Georgia Tech goes to the Big 10. If FOX wants into the Southeast ESPN will do everything it can to make sure it is in Miami and with Georgia Tech.
Could I be wrong? Sure, but likely only if some deal we don't know about was cut to free Texas and Oklahoma up to move early. FOX did hold 50% of their T1 and T2 rights and maybe FSU was the cost of that. We'll see. But in 2011 ESPN tried to scoop all of them before the GORs were in place and it only failed because allegedly UNC and UVa bailed on it at the last minute. And that's why Clay Travis had been pushing N.C. State and Virginia Tech to the SEC along with Missouri and A&M. That was the preselling leak to get the SEC fan base prepared to take N.C. State and Va Tech. We needed no prodding to take Texas A&M.
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If the SEC did expand again and did so from the Big 12 who should we take and why?
