(03-31-2013 06:40 AM)Zombiewoof Wrote: I still don't see 20 happening, but if it did, I don't think everyone would necessarily go to 20. While there are enough quality schools in the eastern half of the US to have three 20-team conferences (and maybe four), the west just doesn't have enough schools that will be attractive enough to warrant the increase in teams. Of course, if the PAC wanted to reconsider something with schools from the Big XII, then they could get to 20 easily, but I don't think it will happen. The Big 10 or the SEC may do it and I could even see the ACC, but it's hard for me to envision a good PAC 20-team lineup, expecially if it didn't include Texas, Oklahoma or both.
There are roughly 3 cut off points for investment in sports that separates the would be upper tier teams from the rest, 60 teams, 67 teams, and 71 teams. That is why 60, 64, 68, and 72 have been the most possible numbers for an upper tier. The most definitive break occurs at 60.
There are going to be 3 conference networks looking for markets therefore whatever maximizes those markets will work.
SEC:
North: Kentucky, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
East: Auburn, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
South: Alabama, Miss State, N. Carolina, N.C. State, Tennessee
West: Arkansas, L.S.U., Ole Miss, Missouri, Texas A&M
Big 10:
South: Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia
East: B.C./UConn, Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
North: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan St., Minnesota, Purdue
West: Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
PAC:
South: Arizona, Arizona State, Miami, Texas, Texas Tech
East: Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas St., Oklahoma, Oklahoma St.
West: California, U.C.L.A., Colorado, U.S.C., Stanford
North: Oregon, Oregon St., Utah, Washington, Washington St.
Notre Dame will attach itself to a division in one of the conferences and have entry into the playoffs through the division. Their remaining games would be played with teams from the other two conferences. If Clemson offends the sensibilities of the of the Big 10's AAU then swap them with Pitt.
I could see one conference going to 24 to accommodate a few more schools, but the money is the strongest at 60 and it is money that is driving realignment.
I would see the next 4 in as having to come from one region. Louisville, Cincinnati, the remainder of UConn/B.C., Baylor, T.C.U. and perhaps South Florida would be the schools from which to choose. None of them are AAU so rule out the Big 10. The PAC would only profit with Louisville (which could be substituted for Iowa State anyway). The SEC could profit perhaps with three. The remainder of B.C./UConn, one of Baylor/T.C.U., and Cincinnati would all add markets. Louisville is the most profitable. But at 60 there will be good and deserving teams left out unless someone takes 24.
UConn, Clemson, & F.S.U. could all be candidates for AAU, but the first two are more likely.
The above gives the SEC 16 states, the Big 10 17 States, and puts the PAC into Texas & Florida which helps them compete market wise. Miami has to fly to all of their games anyway. It is probably as good as it gets on equitable market distributions for the three.