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If the SEC and B1G go to 20 and have a semi-final conference game... - Lurker Above - 03-31-2013 01:16 AM
by getting the NCAA to pass a new rule allowing 20 member conferences to have a four game conference playoff, will the other conferences follow their lead and also go to 20?
RE: If the SEC and B1G go to 20 and have a semi-final conference game... - JRsec - 03-31-2013 02:20 AM
(03-31-2013 01:16 AM)Lurker Above Wrote: by getting the NCAA to pass a new rule allowing 20 member conferences to have a four game conference playoff, will the other conferences follow their lead and also go to 20?
If that happens there will only be 3 conferences. The elimination of the fourth conference will net each member of the other three conferences 2 million more each in playoff revenue and that doesn't include revenue from the market additions to get to 20, or from the potential of having a second team from your conference grab the at large 4th spot for the playoffs. There is too much money in this format for it to be ignored for very long as a viable and profitable model.
RE: If the SEC and B1G go to 20 and have a semi-final conference game... - Zombiewoof - 03-31-2013 06:40 AM
I still don't see 20 happening, but if it did, I don't think everyone would necessarily go to 20. While there are enough quality schools in the eastern half of the US to have three 20-team conferences (and maybe four), the west just doesn't have enough schools that will be attractive enough to warrant the increase in teams. Of course, if the PAC wanted to reconsider something with schools from the Big XII, then they could get to 20 easily, but I don't think it will happen. The Big 10 or the SEC may do it and I could even see the ACC, but it's hard for me to envision a good PAC 20-team lineup, expecially if it didn't include Texas, Oklahoma or both.
RE: If the SEC and B1G go to 20 and have a semi-final conference game... - bearcat29 - 03-31-2013 06:47 AM
(03-31-2013 06:40 AM)Zombiewoof Wrote: I still don't see 20 happening, but if it did, I don't think everyone would necessarily go to 20. While there are enough quality schools in the eastern half of the US to have three 20-team conferences (and maybe four), the west just doesn't have enough schools that will be attractive enough to warrant the increase in teams. Of course, if the PAC wanted to reconsider something with schools from the Big XII, then they could get to 20 easily, but I don't think it will happen. The Big 10 or the SEC may do it and I could even see the ACC, but it's hard for me to envision a good PAC 20-team lineup, expecially if it didn't include Texas, Oklahoma or both.
going to 16 will decrease my love of CFB, 20 will kill it.
I really hope the B10 implode in the end.
RE: If the SEC and B1G go to 20 and have a semi-final conference game... - Rich52c - 03-31-2013 07:39 AM
(03-31-2013 06:47 AM)bearcat29 Wrote:the good old ACC is what is going to change!!!!(03-31-2013 06:40 AM)Zombiewoof Wrote: I still don't see 20 happening, but if it did, I don't think everyone would necessarily go to 20. While there are enough quality schools in the eastern half of the US to have three 20-team conferences (and maybe four), the west just doesn't have enough schools that will be attractive enough to warrant the increase in teams. Of course, if the PAC wanted to reconsider something with schools from the Big XII, then they could get to 20 easily, but I don't think it will happen. The Big 10 or the SEC may do it and I could even see the ACC, but it's hard for me to envision a good PAC 20-team lineup, expecially if it didn't include Texas, Oklahoma or both.
going to 16 will decrease my love of CFB, 20 will kill it.
I really hope the B10 implode in the end.
After the B12 ,SEC and B10 get teams it will reload from the A12.
That court date of MD cannot happen quickly enough.
RE: If the SEC and B1G go to 20 and have a semi-final conference game... - He1nousOne - 03-31-2013 08:38 AM
Twenty team conferences are very possible, especially for the Big Ten. I think the SEC will want to stick to 16 teams if at all possible but there is that chance that they end up helping another really big move in order to secure the votes of those two major groupings of Universities.
That being said I don't see the NCAA rule being for 20 teams but instead for 16 teams so that the smaller conferences will see it as achieveable. They are part of the NCAA too. Their votes are definitely achieveable but they will need to be thrown a small bone so they can show that off to their peoples when they get questioned about why they went along with it all.
RE: If the SEC and B1G go to 20 and have a semi-final conference game... - JRsec - 03-31-2013 08:53 AM
(03-31-2013 06:40 AM)Zombiewoof Wrote: I still don't see 20 happening, but if it did, I don't think everyone would necessarily go to 20. While there are enough quality schools in the eastern half of the US to have three 20-team conferences (and maybe four), the west just doesn't have enough schools that will be attractive enough to warrant the increase in teams. Of course, if the PAC wanted to reconsider something with schools from the Big XII, then they could get to 20 easily, but I don't think it will happen. The Big 10 or the SEC may do it and I could even see the ACC, but it's hard for me to envision a good PAC 20-team lineup, expecially if it didn't include Texas, Oklahoma or both.There are roughly 3 cut off points for investment in sports that separates the would be upper tier teams from the rest, 60 teams, 67 teams, and 71 teams. That is why 60, 64, 68, and 72 have been the most possible numbers for an upper tier. The most definitive break occurs at 60.
There are going to be 3 conference networks looking for markets therefore whatever maximizes those markets will work.
SEC:
North: Kentucky, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
East: Auburn, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
South: Alabama, Miss State, N. Carolina, N.C. State, Tennessee
West: Arkansas, L.S.U., Ole Miss, Missouri, Texas A&M
Big 10:
South: Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia
East: B.C./UConn, Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
North: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan St., Minnesota, Purdue
West: Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
PAC:
South: Arizona, Arizona State, Miami, Texas, Texas Tech
East: Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas St., Oklahoma, Oklahoma St.
West: California, U.C.L.A., Colorado, U.S.C., Stanford
North: Oregon, Oregon St., Utah, Washington, Washington St.
Notre Dame will attach itself to a division in one of the conferences and have entry into the playoffs through the division. Their remaining games would be played with teams from the other two conferences. If Clemson offends the sensibilities of the of the Big 10's AAU then swap them with Pitt.
I could see one conference going to 24 to accommodate a few more schools, but the money is the strongest at 60 and it is money that is driving realignment.
I would see the next 4 in as having to come from one region. Louisville, Cincinnati, the remainder of UConn/B.C., Baylor, T.C.U. and perhaps South Florida would be the schools from which to choose. None of them are AAU so rule out the Big 10. The PAC would only profit with Louisville (which could be substituted for Iowa State anyway). The SEC could profit perhaps with three. The remainder of B.C./UConn, one of Baylor/T.C.U., and Cincinnati would all add markets. Louisville is the most profitable. But at 60 there will be good and deserving teams left out unless someone takes 24.
UConn, Clemson, & F.S.U. could all be candidates for AAU, but the first two are more likely.
The above gives the SEC 16 states, the Big 10 17 States, and puts the PAC into Texas & Florida which helps them compete market wise. Miami has to fly to all of their games anyway. It is probably as good as it gets on equitable market distributions for the three.
RE: If the SEC and B1G go to 20 and have a semi-final conference game... - JRsec - 03-31-2013 09:03 AM
(03-31-2013 08:38 AM)He1nousOne Wrote: Twenty team conferences are very possible, especially for the Big Ten. I think the SEC will want to stick to 16 teams if at all possible but there is that chance that they end up helping another really big move in order to secure the votes of those two major groupings of Universities.
That being said I don't see the NCAA rule being for 20 teams but instead for 16 teams so that the smaller conferences will see it as achieveable. They are part of the NCAA too. Their votes are definitely achieveable but they will need to be thrown a small bone so they can show that off to their peoples when they get questioned about why they went along with it all.
He1nous as often as you cite the NCAA I am going to remind you that if we move to 60 or 64 upper tier teams there is not going to be an NCAA for them. There will be a breakaway.
RE: If the SEC and B1G go to 20 and have a semi-final conference game... - He1nousOne - 03-31-2013 09:04 AM
(03-31-2013 09:03 AM)JRsec Wrote:(03-31-2013 08:38 AM)He1nousOne Wrote: Twenty team conferences are very possible, especially for the Big Ten. I think the SEC will want to stick to 16 teams if at all possible but there is that chance that they end up helping another really big move in order to secure the votes of those two major groupings of Universities.
That being said I don't see the NCAA rule being for 20 teams but instead for 16 teams so that the smaller conferences will see it as achieveable. They are part of the NCAA too. Their votes are definitely achieveable but they will need to be thrown a small bone so they can show that off to their peoples when they get questioned about why they went along with it all.
He1nous as often as you cite the NCAA I am going to remind you that if we move to 60 or 64 upper tier teams there is not going to be an NCAA for them. There will be a breakaway.
I disagree, that is why I cite the NCAA as I do. I think the rest of the schools will cave to the demands and the Majors will give them a bone to chew on so that it looks like they got something in return.
RE: If the SEC and B1G go to 20 and have a semi-final conference game... - JRsec - 03-31-2013 09:11 AM
(03-31-2013 09:04 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:(03-31-2013 09:03 AM)JRsec Wrote:(03-31-2013 08:38 AM)He1nousOne Wrote: Twenty team conferences are very possible, especially for the Big Ten. I think the SEC will want to stick to 16 teams if at all possible but there is that chance that they end up helping another really big move in order to secure the votes of those two major groupings of Universities.
That being said I don't see the NCAA rule being for 20 teams but instead for 16 teams so that the smaller conferences will see it as achieveable. They are part of the NCAA too. Their votes are definitely achieveable but they will need to be thrown a small bone so they can show that off to their peoples when they get questioned about why they went along with it all.
He1nous as often as you cite the NCAA I am going to remind you that if we move to 60 or 64 upper tier teams there is not going to be an NCAA for them. There will be a breakaway.
I disagree, that is why I cite the NCAA as I do. I think the rest of the schools will cave to the demands and the Majors will give them a bone to chew on so that it looks like they got something in return.
This is a money grab. The upper tier schools, if they move, are moving for money. The loss of revenue to the NCAA in all sports but football will be the reason behind the scenes for their decision to breakaway. Basketball in particular would be much more lucrative for the big schools without the NCAA.
RE: If the SEC and B1G go to 20 and have a semi-final conference game... - He1nousOne - 03-31-2013 09:17 AM
(03-31-2013 09:11 AM)JRsec Wrote:(03-31-2013 09:04 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:(03-31-2013 09:03 AM)JRsec Wrote:(03-31-2013 08:38 AM)He1nousOne Wrote: Twenty team conferences are very possible, especially for the Big Ten. I think the SEC will want to stick to 16 teams if at all possible but there is that chance that they end up helping another really big move in order to secure the votes of those two major groupings of Universities.
That being said I don't see the NCAA rule being for 20 teams but instead for 16 teams so that the smaller conferences will see it as achieveable. They are part of the NCAA too. Their votes are definitely achieveable but they will need to be thrown a small bone so they can show that off to their peoples when they get questioned about why they went along with it all.
He1nous as often as you cite the NCAA I am going to remind you that if we move to 60 or 64 upper tier teams there is not going to be an NCAA for them. There will be a breakaway.
I disagree, that is why I cite the NCAA as I do. I think the rest of the schools will cave to the demands and the Majors will give them a bone to chew on so that it looks like they got something in return.
This is a money grab. The upper tier schools, if they move, are moving for money. The loss of revenue to the NCAA in all sports but football will be the reason behind the scenes for their decision to breakaway. Basketball in particular would be much more lucrative for the big schools without the NCAA.
Maybe so but the fallout from that move would be huge. I just don't see it going that far and happening, that is my opinion. You are free to think otherwise.
RE: If the SEC and B1G go to 20 and have a semi-final conference game... - JunkYardCard - 03-31-2013 09:44 AM
A cutoff at 60+1 would require a split from the NCAA, and all the baggage that goes with it.
RE: If the SEC and B1G go to 20 and have a semi-final conference game... - 10thMountain - 03-31-2013 10:01 AM
I think 20 is far fetched for most conferences if the NCAA won't allow conference semi final games.
However, I could see the B1G doing it to get UNC by agreeing to take all their approved buddies to go along as a package of UNC/Duke/UVA/GT/FSU/Miami
I think if that happened, SEC gets our 2 NC and VA schools (VT/NC State) and call it a realignment.
RE: If the SEC and B1G go to 20 and have a semi-final conference game... - bitcruncher - 03-31-2013 10:04 AM
(03-31-2013 10:01 AM)10thMountain Wrote: I think 20 is far fetched for most conferences if the NCAA won't allow conference semi final games.If the NCAA won't allow semi-final games, the major conference can bypass the NCAA altogether by forming their own regulatory organization. That might be the best solution all around, since the NCAA has proven itself pretty incompetent more often than not lately...
However, I could see the B1G doing it to get UNC by agreeing to take all their approved buddies to go along as a package of UNC/Duke/UVA/GT/FSU/Miami
I think if that happened, SEC gets our 2 NC and VA schools (VT/NC State) and call it a realignment.
RE: If the SEC and B1G go to 20 and have a semi-final conference game... - JRsec - 03-31-2013 10:06 AM
(03-31-2013 09:44 AM)JunkYardCard Wrote: A cutoff at 60+1 would require a split from the NCAA, and all the baggage that goes with it.
The baggage is the NCAA.
RE: If the SEC and B1G go to 20 and have a semi-final conference game... - bitcruncher - 03-31-2013 10:09 AM
(03-31-2013 10:06 AM)JRsec Wrote:Ain't that the truth?(03-31-2013 09:44 AM)JunkYardCard Wrote: A cutoff at 60+1 would require a split from the NCAA, and all the baggage that goes with it.The baggage is the NCAA.
RE: If the SEC and B1G go to 20 and have a semi-final conference game... - JRsec - 03-31-2013 10:21 AM
(03-31-2013 10:01 AM)10thMountain Wrote: I think 20 is far fetched for most conferences if the NCAA won't allow conference semi final games.
However, I could see the B1G doing it to get UNC by agreeing to take all their approved buddies to go along as a package of UNC/Duke/UVA/GT/FSU/Miami
I think if that happened, SEC gets our 2 NC and VA schools (VT/NC State) and call it a realignment.
10th, the SEC is market driven as well. If we maintain a competitive advantage economically by stopping at 16 we will. But that would mean the Big 10 stops at 16 first.
Slive is driven by doing what is best for the conference first and that would be to stop at 16. But he is also driven by the desire not to fall behind economically. If the Big 10 goes after markets to secure the upper hand, Slive will counter to prevent an earnings gap. It is as simple as that and none of it is far-fetched. And furthermore if you think that the SEC is going to settle for the second best team in the state of North Carolina think again. Slive wants the Heels if they are available to a move.
The Big 12 doesn't have the footprint for a conference network and the addition of 6 leftover ACC schools won't help them that much. The theory that they can be fine picking after the Big 10 and SEC have raided the ACC is a ludicrous theory prima facia. How are they going to compete equitably from a starting point that is behind the Big 10 and SEC if those two conferences glean the best and most profitable from the same conference the Big 12 hopes to expand out of? They are not. And I doubt that Texas and OU are going to feel comfortable long term with that kind of disadvantage. If however West coast markets can earn them more that's where they will end up with their buddies in tow. Texas will get a deal as surely as the Irish will somewhere and it will get done. If we stop at 4 conferences of 16 the Big 12 will not be one of them.
The choice then for the networks will be 2 great brands in a lousy market footprint versus a 16 team lackluster football conference with individual football and basketball stars in a great market. They will relocate the former and try to prop up the latter. Then we will have 4 x 16 or something like it. Otherwise if the ACC falls we are moving to 3 conferences. The math is simply not there otherwise.
RE: If the SEC and B1G go to 20 and have a semi-final conference game... - buffdog - 03-31-2013 10:26 AM
60 teams limit the eyeballs for the respective conference networks. At least 4-20 team conferences. The PAC has apparently already done informal inquiry of what MWC programs could be potential adds.
RE: If the SEC and B1G go to 20 and have a semi-final conference game... - JRsec - 03-31-2013 10:28 AM
(03-31-2013 10:26 AM)buffdog Wrote: 60 teams limit the eyeballs for the respective conference networks. At least 4-20 team conferences. The PAC has apparently already done informal inquiry of what MWC programs could be potential adds.
I think that's a better competitive number. But, I also think money drives this bus and it's not stopping to pick up those who can't pay their way on board.
RE: If the SEC and B1G go to 20 and have a semi-final conference game... - He1nousOne - 03-31-2013 10:59 AM
(03-31-2013 10:01 AM)10thMountain Wrote: I think 20 is far fetched for most conferences if the NCAA won't allow conference semi final games.
However, I could see the B1G doing it to get UNC by agreeing to take all their approved buddies to go along as a package of UNC/Duke/UVA/GT/FSU/Miami
I think if that happened, SEC gets our 2 NC and VA schools (VT/NC State) and call it a realignment.
Without new rules then even 16 is far fetched. I personally assume that the leaders of the major schools wouldn't have expanded this far if they didnt think new rules wouldn't be able to be passed.
In regards to the SEC expanding further, I think the Networks might be able to talk them into further expansion but otherwise stopping at 16 will definitely be best for the conference itself.