(11-04-2022 11:43 AM)stever20 Wrote: It'll be interesting to see how hot the free agent market is this winter.
Jim Bowden did his top 25 with contract guesses:
Judge 8/330
deGrom 2/90 opt-out after 1
Verlander 3/135
Correa 10/327
Turner 8/264
Bogaerts 7/196
Rodon 5/144
Diaz 4/65
Swanson 6/154
Senga 3/72
Kershaw 1/20
Contreras 4/78
Eovaldi 4/90
Bassitt 4/74
Taillon 4/70
Nimmo 5/80
Benintendi 5/75
Abreu 2/34
Rizzo 3/54
Eflin 3/36
Conforto 2/34 opt out after 1
Jansen 2/34
Perez 2/24
Anderson 2/24
Bell 3/39
Good lord I can't imagine guaranteeing Verlander $45MM aav for 3 years, but I guess someone might. He's 39 FFS! deGrom?... sure!
I've been reading Turner closer to $300MM. If $260ish is close to the market I think the Dodgers pay or even overpay to keep him.
Too many rumors for it not be true that Dodgers are looking at Correa. I get it, but damn...
The Anderson number seems low. Dodgers will almost certainly make him a QO, which this year is almost $20MM. No way his market is two years at only a little more than the QO for one year.
(This post was last modified: 11-04-2022 01:51 PM by Brookes Owl.)
so updated from earlier with new dates-
Sun Eligible players become free agents
Mon-Thu GM Meetings
Thu 5 pm free agents can sign, QO deadline, eligible minor leaguers can become free agents, options deadline, guys must be put back from 60 day IL onto 40 man roster deadline
Tue Nov 15 Rule 5 decision deadline
Fri Nov 18 tender/non tender deadline
Sun Nov 20 QO acceptance deadline
Dec 4-7 Winter Meetings, with draft lottery, Rule 5 draft
Thinking a little more about deGrom, he really seems to be a good fit for the short term, high AAV offers that Friedman loves to make, a la Trevor Bauer. The problem is kind of similar though. deGrom isn't a worthless human time-bomb like Bauer but he's been fragile as hell. 26 games and 156 1/3 innings is not quite a full season for an MLB starter but that's actually deGrom's experience over the last TWO seasons.
Of course, that's the idea behind this kind of offer: Even if it goes completely sideways you're only on the hook for a very short term. In a nutshell: If Andrew's on board so am I.
(11-07-2022 03:50 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: Thinking a little more about deGrom, he really seems to be a good fit for the short term, high AAV offers that Friedman loves to make, a la Trevor Bauer. The problem is kind of similar though. deGrom isn't a worthless human time-bomb like Bauer but he's been fragile as hell. 26 games and 156 1/3 innings is not quite a full season for an MLB starter but that's actually deGrom's experience over the last TWO seasons.
Of course, that's the idea behind this kind of offer: Even if it goes completely sideways you're only on the hook for a very short term. In a nutshell: If Andrew's on board so am I.
If I was gonna do something like that, I think I'd lean towards Verlander more.
(11-03-2022 10:03 AM)Erictelevision Wrote: How many players per team are R5 or non-tendered?
really depends on the team honestly.
On average? Assume payroll effects it
It really just depends on the situation. Not trying to be an ass, but it varies so much by year and everything- even same team year to year.
These are complex questions, and they only partially overlap, but they both hinge on a teams' talent pool and 40 man roster flexibility. In the case of the Rule 5 draft the direct (albeit imprecise) answer to your question is: very few. In recent years the entire draft involved maybe a dozen to 20 players total. Any team without a full 40 man roster can draft a player not on another team's 40 man. If a team has a really well regarded prospect, they'll want to move him up. But if their 40 man is full, they have to drop somebody off who then becomes eligible for the Rule 5 draft. In any given year, you never know who's gonna leave some holes in their 40 man, or what kind of talent will be available, but even a team's willingness to participate varies. It's complicated: Rule 5 draft picks have to go on your 26 man roster and to remove them you have to waive them, which makes them eligible for other teams to pick up. If they clear waivers, you still have to offer them back to their previous team and if they decline only then can you put him on a minor league roster. It's a lot of work and some gambling. The Rule 5 draft in 2019 was 11 players. 7 of 'em were returned to their previous teams, and three of THEM were traded back to the team that selected them in the Rule 5 draft. It's kind of nuts.
In the case of non-tendering, that usually boils down to an arbitration-eligible player they don't think will be worth his salary...*cough* Cody Bellinger but could happen because a team needs to open a spot on the 40 man (see R5 discussion above as an example). This is also, generally, not a very big number per team.
But this just adds detail to the point stever already made: It really depends. Some team's minor league depth can change a lot year to year. One year you've got a ton of talent and you make a lot of moves to protect a bunch of guys. The next, maybe you've traded or promoted a bunch of that talent and you don't have to worry about it. The next you leave a spot on your 40 man open and you go fishing in the Rule 5 draft.
As I was reading a write up on the Dodgers approach to the Rule 5 draft this year, I realized I left out an important clarification: Eligibility requirements. Players who were signed when they were 19 or older and have played for four years, or players who were signed at 18 and have played for five years. The newbies can't be drafted.
They were both great players, but as there is only one award (maybe they should have a separate Rookie Pitcher Award like Cy Young is separate from MVP?) I'm glad Harris II won. The team was floundering with severe outfield and hitting problems when they promoted Harris II. from that point on, much like after Phils fired Girardi, things started clicking right away. It changed the Braves' season. No doubt, Strider's promotion to the rotation also was a difference-maker. Harris II meant just a bit more to the team this past season. Hope they both go on to maintain great careers!
They were both great players, but as there is only one award (maybe they should have a separate Rookie Pitcher Award like Cy Young is separate from MVP?) I'm glad Harris II won. The team was floundering with severe outfield and hitting problems when they promoted Harris II. from that point on, much like after Phils fired Girardi, things started clicking right away. It changed the Braves' season. No doubt, Strider's promotion to the rotation also was a difference-maker. Harris II meant just a bit more to the team this past season. Hope they both go on to maintain great careers!
I think the injury that Strider had that took away 2-3 end of season starts probably played a factor in things. 1 of those being vs the Mets.
Adley Rutschman and Harris both get full years of service with top 2 ROY finishes. For Harris obviously a moot point given the long term deal. But for Adley and the Orioles- big thing for sure.
Angels sign Tyler Anderson. If he extends his 2022 performance, largely because of the improvement of his changeup, that's a great deal for the Angels and a bummer for the Dodgers. Really solid pitcher at a very affordable price.
(11-04-2022 11:43 AM)stever20 Wrote: It'll be interesting to see how hot the free agent market is this winter.
Jim Bowden did his top 25 with contract guesses:
<snip>
Anderson 2/24
<snip>
The Anderson number seems low. Dodgers will almost certainly make him a QO, which this year is almost $20MM. No way his market is two years at only a little more than the QO for one year.
OK, so deal with Angels is 3/39. Bowden was pretty close on the AAV but missed the duration. We both get half credit I guess.
(This post was last modified: 11-16-2022 09:00 PM by Brookes Owl.)
(11-30-2022 12:21 PM)GoodOwl Wrote: Shelby Miller to Dogs pending physical. It's been a long, winding road for Shelby since he got traded for Dansby and Inciarte all those years ago...
One of the worst trades the Dbacks ever made. Now watch Miller win a Cy Young
Quote:Baseball Hall of Famer and two-time Cy Young Award winner Gaylord Perry, a master of the spitball who wrote a book about using the pitch, died Thursday. He was 84.
The native of Williamston, N.C., made history as the first player to win the Cy Young in both leagues, with Cleveland in 1972 and San Diego in 1978 just after turning 40.
Perry went 24-16 in his debut season with Cleveland after 10 years with the San Francisco Giants. He was 21-6 in his first season with the Padres in 1978 for his fifth and final 20-win season.
“Before I won my second Cy Young I thought I was too old – I didn’t think the writers would vote for me,” Perry said in an article on the National Baseball Hall of Fame website. “But they voted on my performance, so I won it.”
Perry’s 1974 autobiography was titled “Me and the Spitter,” and he wrote that when he started in 1962 he was the “11th man on an 11-man pitching staff” for the Giants. He needed an edge and learned the spitball from San Francisco teammate Bob Shaw.
Perry said he first threw it in May 1964 against the New York Mets, pitched 10 innings without giving up a run and soon after entered the Giants’ starting rotation.
He also wrote in the book that he chewed slippery elm bark to build up his saliva and eventually stopped throwing the pitch in 1968 after MLB ruled pitchers could no longer touch their fingers to their mouths before touching the baseball.
According to his book, he looked for other substances, like petroleum jelly, to doctor the baseball. He used various motions and routines to touch different parts of his jersey and body to get hitters thinking he was applying a foreign substance.
Perry was ejected from a game just once for doctoring a baseball – when he was with Seattle in August 1982. In his final season with Kansas City, Perry and teammate Leon Roberts tried to hide George Brett’s infamous pine-tar bat in the clubhouse but were stopped by a guard. Perry was ejected for his role in that game, too.
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2022-23 mlb Hot Stove (offseason) Thread
RE: 2022-23 mlb Hot Stove (offseason) Thread 
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