(04-29-2016 12:58 PM)FoUTASportscaster Wrote: I wouldn't judge the future based on the past.
Realignment has come in waves with each wave driven by something else.
We've seen the travel situations change as teams stopped moving by train and could move effectively on better roads using more reliable busses. We've seen air charter become financially viable.
Those changes changed the way conferences looked.
When the NCAA controlled TV, there was a cap on national TV appearances and pay was mostly based on appearances. It suddenly made sense for a Houston to join SWC and Arizona and Arizona State to join Pac-12 (and we were seeing population shifts, that collided with Houston and Phoenix becoming large cities).
Then when the NCAA and CFA deals broke up we had realignment driven by the new invention of the championship game as well as driven by "market share" and ratings.
Then we had a round of realignment based on whether fans would change TV providers if their provider didn't carry ESPN, teams value was there.
Then it became how many people will insist on seeing the new conference TV channel and forcing their TV provider to fork over a carriage fee.
The G5 got caught in the fallout of the latter two movements but seemed to think we were still playing the market and ratings game.
MWC formed playing the market and ratings game. They tried to play the carriage fee game but their network never reached critical mass to be profitable. AAC is playing the ratings game (the only game left for the G5 currently) and aligned a group of schools that do produce good viewership.
The rest of the rabble (G5) don't move the ratings needle enough to play the ratings game, so we play the alternate content game filling programming needs mid-week.
What I'm not sure much of anyone other than the Sun Belt has caught on to is the value of the CFP distribution. Choosing to drop NMSU and Idaho as members was a recognition that sharing fewer ways makes sense.
The question left is does this lead to eventual shifting of conference affiliations or does it put us in a holding pattern until the next change in how revenue is generated.