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You know 82% of stats and percentages are made up on the spot...

Quote:Tier 1
MSU & OSU. 25% or worse chance of winning.

I would say more like 10% chance of winning 1 of those. I'd say 35% chance of making one of those kinda close (which will be the real foreshadowing on how well we are this season).

Quote:Tier 2
Toledo, BGSU, NIU, GS. Toss ups. Probably split

I wouldn't say toss-ups 50/50 for all 4. Between BGSU & @GS combined -- I'll give you that it's a tossup overall, with one slightly in our favor and one slightly not (but averaged out to be a tossup). For @NIU and @Toledo -- both favor them. We wouldn't be huge under-dogs or anything, but notably expected to Lose.

0-4 : Don't Expect that, but could happen if luck & circumstance don't go our way
1-3 : Expect this, with at least 2 others being real close that we coulda/shoulda won
2-2 : Above par expectations - Very Good; Def a possibility, but don't place real bets on it
3-1 : WOW. I'd turn down banging a model for this. No, I'm serious.
4-0 : Shock & Awe. I'm masturbating in the middle of S. Park street. On a fat girl. On video.

What do I expect? I expect us going 6-6 or 7-5, regular season. I'm not expecting 5-7 or 8-4 -- even though those are possibilities.

You all are underestimating Fleck, which after last year is hard to believe.

Sporting News CFB Magazine has us winning the West.

I won't be surprised if we beat Sparty in opener!

Oh ye of little faith - are you in the "Boat" or not?!

(07-11-2015 12:27 PM)Doo Wrote:  I'm not sure why you've switched the argument to BGSUs non con schedule. I will give you that Memphis will have a winning record. But I'm pretty comfortable saying the other three will not. Check back with me in December.


Can we move back to the topic. WMUs top realistic achievable record is 8-4. May mathematically going 9-3 is possible but so is 14-0. I'll stay with my statement along with my belief that 7-5 or 6-6 is where it ends up. Games are in three categories.

Tier 1
MSU & OSU. 25% or worse chance of winning.

Tier 2
Toledo, BGSU, NIU, GS. Toss ups. Probably split

Tier 3
Ohio, BSU, CMU. 25% or worse chance of losing. 3-0 or 2-1

Tier 4
All others virtually guaranteed wins.

If you held my feet to the fire

MSU. L
GSU. L
Murray W
OSU L
CMU. W
Ohio W
Miami W
Eastern W
BSU. W
BGSU W
Toledo L
NIU L

7-5.....depending on matchup 8-5 or 7-6

To this point, I haven't strayed off topic: the ceiling of this Bronco team. If the conversation became more BG-centric than expected, especially regarding their nonconference schedule, well...your words: What are you on? Not one of those teams should have a winning record Regarding Tennessee, I'll look forward to checking back in on that - most likely well before December.

Enough of that from me for now. Regarding the tiers:

Tier 1: I agree (MSU, at OSU). Playing the Todd percentages game, I give us a 1% chance at OSU and, I'll say, about a 10% chance against MSU.

Tier 2: at Georgia Southern, at NIU, at Toledo. Beat GSU, and we have a shot at two wins out of this bunch.

Tier 3: CMU, at Ohio, BG, BSU. We should be favored in each of these games, but none of them are gimmes by any means.

Tier 4: Murray State, Miami, at EMU. Lose any of these and all hell breaks loose on the Stampede.

Not making any predictions for now, as that is an entirely different topic from the realistic ceiling of this Bronco team.

(07-11-2015 03:51 PM)The Colonel Wrote:  

(07-11-2015 12:27 PM)Doo Wrote:  I'm not sure why you've switched the argument to BGSUs non con schedule. I will give you that Memphis will have a winning record. But I'm pretty comfortable saying the other three will not. Check back with me in December.


Can we move back to the topic. WMUs top realistic achievable record is 8-4. May mathematically going 9-3 is possible but so is 14-0. I'll stay with my statement along with my belief that 7-5 or 6-6 is where it ends up. Games are in three categories.

Tier 1
MSU & OSU. 25% or worse chance of winning.

Tier 2
Toledo, BGSU, NIU, GS. Toss ups. Probably split

Tier 3
Ohio, BSU, CMU. 25% or worse chance of losing. 3-0 or 2-1

Tier 4
All others virtually guaranteed wins.

If you held my feet to the fire

MSU. L
GSU. L
Murray W
OSU L
CMU. W
Ohio W
Miami W
Eastern W
BSU. W
BGSU W
Toledo L
NIU L

7-5.....depending on matchup 8-5 or 7-6

To this point, I haven't strayed off topic: the ceiling of this Bronco team. If the conversation became more BG-centric than expected, especially regarding their nonconference schedule, well...your words: What are you on? Not one of those teams should have a winning record Regarding Tennessee, I'll look forward to checking back in on that - most likely well before December.

Enough of that from me for now. Regarding the tiers:

Tier 1: I agree (MSU, at OSU). Playing the Todd percentages game, I give us a 1% chance at OSU and, I'll say, about a 10% chance against MSU.

Tier 2: at Georgia Southern, at NIU, at Toledo. Beat GSU, and we have a shot at two wins out of this bunch.

Tier 3: CMU, at Ohio, BG, BSU. We should be favored in each of these games, but none of them are gimmes by any means.

Tier 4: Murray State, Miami, at EMU. Lose any of these and all hell breaks loose on the Stampede.

Not making any predictions for now, as that is an entirely different topic from the realistic ceiling of this Bronco team.

So.....you agree with me.

Take a closer look. If you think BG belongs in Tier 3, where I have clearly included them, then yes, we agree. If not, then no, we don't.

If you think BG is too good to be included with CMU, (at) Ohio, and BSU, that's fine. I'll propose a five-tier system:

Tier 1: MSU, at OSU
Tier 2: at GSU, at NIU, at Toledo
Tier 3: BG
Tier 4: CMU, at Ohio, BSU
Tier 5: Murray State, Miami, at EMU

BG does not belong in Tier 2. That's my opinion - one that hasn't changed over the previous couple of pages of the thread.

And, round and round we go...

BGSU hired a proven winner as HC who won Division championship (yes we all know East is weaker) and bowl game in first year despite losing an all-conference caliber QB in first game.

Didn't need a big Mulligan like our coach did.

They should be much improved in Babers' second year with return of Johnson.

That said, we should still beat them at home.

(07-11-2015 04:49 PM)The Colonel Wrote:  Take a closer look. If you think BG belongs in Tier 3, where I have clearly included them, then yes, we agree. If not, then no, we don't.

If you think BG is too good to be included with CMU, (at) Ohio, and BSU, that's fine. I'll propose a five-tier system:

Tier 1: MSU, at OSU
Tier 2: at GSU, at NIU, at Toledo
Tier 3: BG
Tier 4: CMU, at Ohio, BSU
Tier 5: Murray State, Miami, at EMU

BG does not belong in Tier 2. That's my opinion - one that hasn't changed over the previous couple of pages of the thread.

And, round and round we go...

I agree with you again brother. Almost always do. You must be real smart if I keep agreeing with you. Lol.

I think some are too impressed by GSUs win over Florida two years ago. They only return five on an offense that was pretty much all a ground game.

They played Idaho at home about as well as we play them on the road, and we were not near the top of our game when we played Idaho.

Quote:Tier 1: MSU, at OSU
Tier 2: at GSU, at NIU, at Toledo
Tier 3: BG
Tier 4: CMU, at Ohio, BSU
Tier 5: Murray State, Miami, at EMU

BG does not belong in Tier 2. That's my opinion - one that hasn't changed over the previous couple of pages of the thread.

I would put BG in the same "tier" as GS. BG is better, GS will not be as good as last year. But GS is on the road, so I'd give it tougher -- technically between NIU/Toledo & BGSU. But they all wouldn't be many games back from each other. It'd be a relatively tight race.

Quote:They should be much improved in Babers' second year with return of Johnson.

Exactly. People are too underestimating BG. It was the coach's first year with their star QB, to be the best in the whole MAC, out for the season early 1st game. Yes, that will give "Falcon Fast" some ED.

Todd's Tiers ("games back"):
-- @OSU
1gb MSU
4gb @NIU
4gb @Toledo
5gb @GS
5.5gb BGSU
6.5gb @Ohio
6.5gb Ball State
7.5gb CMU
8gb Miami-OH
10gb EMU
14gb Murray State

Falcon fast works both ways. Falcon fast works both ways. It can get you a fast touchdown or it can get you a fast three and out. If it's the latter they can get them down 14 points real quick

I think when you have a non-conference schedule like we do this year, these guys are bound to get beat up and we're going to drop a game somewhere in there that we shouldn't. BGSU or Ohio could be the stretch.

(07-12-2015 08:35 AM)Hoekjeness Wrote:  I think when you have a non-conference schedule like we do this year, these guys are bound to get beat up and we're going to drop a game somewhere in there that we shouldn't. BGSU or Ohio could be the stretch.

UT and BG got beat up, but had the depth to still have a solid season. Do you think we have that kind of depth at this point?

I think we have the depth (in numbers) but not necessarily in strength and experience.

(07-11-2015 09:02 PM)brovol Wrote:  I agree with you again brother. Almost always do. You must be real smart if I keep agreeing with you. Lol.

We still have the "which is the best conference for Bronco hockey" argument to spar over, Brovol.

(07-11-2015 09:34 PM)Chipdip2 Wrote:  I think some are too impressed by GSUs win over Florida two years ago. They only return five on an offense that was pretty much all a ground game. They played Idaho at home about as well as we play them on the road, and we were not near the top of our game when we played Idaho.

When I think of GSU, I usually don't even think of that win at Florida a couple of years ago - probably because it happened under their previous coaching staff.

What impressed me the most about GSU last year was a) running the table in the Sun Belt in their first year in the league, and b) taking both NC State and Georgia Tech to the wire before losing both near the end of the game in heartbreaking fashion.

CD, you make a good point about their limited number of returning offensive players. Their offensive line is near the bottom of FBS in terms of number of returning total starts. Considering that we get them early in the year in Week 2, that could be an advantage for us.

We will be the first FBS nonconference opponent they've ever hosted, though, so there's little doubt they'll be fired up for us. That game is going to be an enormous swing game in our season one way or the other depending on the outcome.