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(07-06-2015 03:54 PM)Boca Rocket Wrote:  

(07-06-2015 02:08 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  Marshall will take a step back without Cato and Shuler. I don't see them being the 2nd best G5 team. And if Toledo is better than NIU this year it will be just barely - looking at the list he has Toledo several places higher. And Temple's always over-rated.

Don't underestimate Ely at QB.

I wouldn't underestimate Hare either - now that he will have had a season plus spring plus fall practices as the #1 QB. He had none of that last year. And he'll have 2 big targets this year, Golladay and Brescacin. And hopefully Tommy Lee Lewis will be healthy for a while this year.

(07-06-2015 02:08 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  Marshall will take a step back without Cato and Shuler. I don't see them being the 2nd best G5 team. And if Toledo is better than NIU this year it will be just barely - looking at the list he has Toledo several places higher. And Temple's always over-rated.

We're never rated.

8-4 Best case scenario ( our ceiling )
7-5 happy and hopeful for this
6-6 most likely finishing record.
5-7 we'd be disappointed but a few injuries make this plausible
4-8 shocked

(07-09-2015 08:18 AM)Doo Wrote:  8-4 Best case scenario ( our ceiling )
7-5 happy and hopeful for this
6-6 most likely finishing record.
5-7 we'd be disappointed but a few injuries make this plausible
4-8 shocked

IMO 8 wins is a pretty low ceiling for this team. I'm not saying we'll win more than that - 8 wins (or more) would be a very good season for this young team against this schedule - but:

- We will likely be 2-2 after nonconference play IF we win at GSU.

- After that, the schedule looks like this (if I have the order correct): CMU, at Ohio, Miami, at EMU, BSU, BG. I don't expect us to run that table, but we do have a good chance to be favored in every one of those games.

- Should we run that table, we could be 8-2 heading into the games at NIU and at Toledo. I think we could win one of those. Winning both will be very tough.

I'm not making any outlandish predictions. I just think the ceiling - the highest possible expectation for this team - is probably a touch higher.

I'll disagree.

You are way to blasé about GS and BGSU.

I have us at best getting 2 of GS, BGSU, Toledo, NIU given 3 of those are on the road. Getting 2 means we steal at least one on the road.

Quote:- After that [going 2-2 OOC], the schedule looks like this (if I have the order correct): CMU, at Ohio, Miami, at EMU, BSU, BG. I don't expect us to run that table, but we do have a good chance to be favored in every one of those games.

BSU, BG (with Matt Johnson) and @Ohio -- combined would be Huge going 3-0 on, all while taking care of business & beating CMU, an improved Miami, and @EMU like we Should. To go 6-0 on that would be a reflection of the highest realistic ceiling.

Quote:- Should we run that table, we could be 8-2 heading into the games at NIU and at Toledo. I think we could win one of those. Winning both will be very tough.

Yeah. 1-1 would be a the high ceiling. 2-0 would be too high.

GUARANSHEED WINS: Murray State, CMU, Miami, @EMU (4-0)

MSU/@OSU/@GSU = 1-2 HIGH, 0-3 LOW
BSU/BGSU/@Ohio = 3-0 HIGH, 1-2 LOW
@NIU/@Toledo = 1-1 HIGH, 0-2 LOW

TOP CEILING: 9-3 [7-1 in MAC, 2-2 OOC]
LOW FLOOR: 5-7 [4-4 in MAC, 1-3 OOC]

Quote:8-4 Best case scenario ( our ceiling )
7-5 happy and hopeful for this
6-6 most likely finishing record.
5-7 we'd be disappointed but a few injuries make this plausible
4-8 shocked

I would say odds are even for a 7-5 vs 6-6 record. Basically, 7-5 if no injuries and we play well -- 6-6 if there's injuries or we don't play up to snuff. 5-7 at a realistic "worst" if key injuries + bad luck or not playing up to snuff.

I would be shocked at 4-8, but I'd also have to put in 9-3 as equally shocking. Both are possible, but very unlikely.

ONLY 4 WINS WOULD BE:
- Murray State
- @EMU
- Miami
- CMU

LOSING TO ALL:
- MSU
- @OSU
- @GSU
- @NIU
- @Toledo
- Bowling Green
- Ball State
- @Ohio

In essence, expect to win *1* of those, at least, in a disappointing season -- of those bottom 8.

(07-09-2015 04:05 PM)Doo Wrote:  I'll disagree. You are way to blasé about GS and BGSU.

So you're saying we have no chance to win at Georgia Southern? Or that we shouldn't be favored to beat BG at home - a team that we dominated on the road a year ago?

If your answer to either question is yes, you're right - we agree to disagree.

(07-09-2015 05:00 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  I would be shocked at 4-8, but I'd also have to put in 9-3 as equally shocking. Both are possible, but very unlikely.

There's a big difference between predicting, "We'll win nine games" and saying, "If everything goes right, we could win nine games" - especially when the topic is a team's ceiling.

(The reverse is also true when discussing a team's floor. There's an equally big difference between predicting, "We'll lose eight games" and saying, "If the season goes to hell, we could lose eight games.")

(07-09-2015 02:13 PM)The Colonel Wrote:  

(07-09-2015 08:18 AM)Doo Wrote:  8-4 Best case scenario ( our ceiling )
7-5 happy and hopeful for this
6-6 most likely finishing record.
5-7 we'd be disappointed but a few injuries make this plausible
4-8 shocked

IMO 8 wins is a pretty low ceiling for this team. I'm not saying we'll win more than that - 8 wins (or more) would be a very good season for this young team against this schedule - but:

- We will likely be 2-2 after nonconference play IF we win at GSU.

- After that, the schedule looks like this (if I have the order correct): CMU, at Ohio, Miami, at EMU, BSU, BG. I don't expect us to run that table, but we do have a good chance to be favored in every one of those games.

- Should we run that table, we could be 8-2 heading into the games at NIU and at Toledo. I think we could win one of those. Winning both will be very tough.

I'm not making any outlandish predictions. I just think the ceiling - the highest possible expectation for this team - is probably a touch higher.

I don't disagree with you at all. Everything depends on out mojo. If we move up a notch from last year, this could be the best team in the MAC, and certainly could beat GSU, and all teams in the MAC. I am not saying that necessarily will happen; even if we are a great team we still need to play well each game, or we could lose to anyone too. But our upside is quite high.

On the other hand, I could imagine a scenario where we have a flop year too. We need to be competitive against MSU for sure.

Time will tell.

(07-09-2015 05:12 PM)The Colonel Wrote:  

(07-09-2015 04:05 PM)Doo Wrote:  I'll disagree. You are way to blasé about GS and BGSU.

So you're saying we have no chance to win at Georgia Southern? Or that we shouldn't be favored to beat BG at home - a team that we dominated on the road a year ago?

If your answer to either question is yes, you're right - we agree to disagree.

No what I'm saying is you need to put GS and BGSU in the same category as Toledo and NIU this year in terms of our odds to actually win. I think we get 2 of those games. If you expect likely losses to MSU/OSU you're already at 8-4

Quote:There's a big difference between predicting, "We'll win nine games" and saying, "If everything goes right, we could win nine games" - especially when the topic is a team's ceiling.

Yeah, but I see "We'll win 9 games," being a statement of what Will happen as lunacy. Almost the same when I was at WMU dating an English gal (actually South African) with a chest the size of Waldo Stadium, one of the guys in her circle of foreign friends (who was American) SCOFFED at the idea that we wouldn't beat Virginia Tech in that home game coming up. SCOFFED! So yes, that same position that we'll win 9 games is just as loony-tunes.

Now, COULD we win 9 games? Anything's theoretically possible. I put it on the same scale as us going down to the wire against MSU, only losing by 10 or less @Ohio State and us crushing @Georgia Southern -- all combined. Possible, but about as expected as us going 4-8 or worse.

Quote:what I'm saying is you need to put GS and BGSU in the same category as Toledo and NIU this year in terms of our odds to actually win. I think we get 2 of those games. If you expect likely losses to MSU/OSU you're already at 8-4

I have to agree with that. @Toledo & @NIU, who are going to be tougher than last year AND at their place... and @GS and BGSU (who will also be Better) -- by reason alone, it stands it'll be GOOD to go 2-2 there. With MSU/OSU, it puts us at 8-4 At Best.

Going 9-3 would require us to beat @GS, BGSU (with Matt Johnson back at QB), and knock off one of @Toledo or @NIU.

.... all the while going unscathed against (an Improved) Ball State, @Ohio, CMU, and a better Miami team.

We haven't established ourselves enough to assume we'll be rolling into @NIU/@Toledo/@GS winning 2 out of 3, while also rolling over @Ohio/BGSU/BSU/CMU Completely unscathed as well.

Remember: We went 1-11 the year before last losing to a piss-poor FCS team, and last year needing a "holy sh!t" comeback to beat @BSU, while folding like a house of cards against NIU at home, and being solidly beat by Air Force with plenty of time walking into it.

I'm NOT at all knocking WMU football at all -- just trying to be realistic. We WILL be Better this year, no doubt. But that alone ain't going to cut it with MSU, @OSU, @NIU, @Toledo, @GS, BGSU on the docket, along with @Ohio & Ball State, and the MAC as a whole Improving Too. Those are 8 games we are set from anything from Will Lose->Solidly Bet Against It->Possibly Lose. Going 5-3 in that series with the two Top 5 teams in the country + the MAC's 2 best away and the top 2 MAC East teams + improved Ball State? I gotta be realistic.

(07-10-2015 08:51 AM)Doo Wrote:  No what I'm saying is you need to put GS and BGSU in the same category as Toledo and NIU this year in terms of our odds to actually win. I think we get 2 of those games. If you expect likely losses to MSU/OSU you're already at 8-4

We agree about MSU and OSU (likely losses).

I'd put GSU in the same category as Toledo and NIU in terms of difficulty, considering that all three are on the road.

I'm not willing to include BG in that category, though, for the reasons I've described earlier in the thread.

(07-10-2015 11:47 AM)toddjnsn Wrote:  Going 9-3 would require us to beat @GS, BGSU (with Matt Johnson back at QB), and knock off one of @Toledo or @NIU.

I don't think there's any question that if we lose at Georgia Southern, a potential ceiling of nine wins becomes almost impossible to reach.

(07-10-2015 03:08 PM)The Colonel Wrote:  

(07-10-2015 08:51 AM)Doo Wrote:  No what I'm saying is you need to put GS and BGSU in the same category as Toledo and NIU this year in terms of our odds to actually win. I think we get 2 of those games. If you expect likely losses to MSU/OSU you're already at 8-4

We agree about MSU and OSU (likely losses).

I'd put GSU in the same category as Toledo and NIU in terms of difficulty, considering that all three are on the road.

I'm not willing to include BG in that category, though, for the reasons I've described earlier in the thread.

I have no issue putting BG with the others. Johnson is back at QB, and Babers is in his second season. BGSU will be a very solid team.

(07-10-2015 04:11 PM)Doo Wrote:  I have no issue putting BG with the others. Johnson is back at QB, and Babers is in his second season. BGSU will be a very solid team.

We'll see. BG has arguably a tougher nonconference schedule than we do: Tennessee (in Nashville), at Maryland, Memphis (at home), at Purdue. Johnson had a great season two years ago but, like Ely of Toledo, is coming back from a major injury. Babers led his team to the MACC due to the overall weakness of the East last season, but "Falcon Fast" didn't exactly set the MAC world on fire in Year 1 (as we demonstrated holding them to 14 points on the road). And - again - they have to come to Kalamazoo this season.

I will say this much for BG: given the continued weakness of the East compared to the West, they probably have a better shot of getting to the MACC this season than we do - IF they make it out of that nonconference schedule relatively healthy.

(07-10-2015 05:09 PM)The Colonel Wrote:  

(07-10-2015 04:11 PM)Doo Wrote:  I have no issue putting BG with the others. Johnson is back at QB, and Babers is in his second season. BGSU will be a very solid team.

We'll see. BG has arguably a tougher nonconference schedule than we do: Tennessee (in Nashville), at Maryland, Memphis (at home), at Purdue.

What are you on?

Not one of those teams should have a winning record?

And saying Babers basically had a free pass to the MACC....he did it in his first year with the backup QB.

Quote:I'd put GSU in the same category as Toledo and NIU in terms of difficulty, considering that all three are on the road.

@GSU is in semi-reboot mode, so they could be as tough as @Toledo & @NIU, or could be even a step below BGSU at home. GSU's biggest threat is they have a different style offense and it's far away on the road (while being a winning team regularly of course). So 2-given losses + 4 "You ain't going to be better than 2-2 anymore than Purdue hopes to be 8-4 this year".

Quote:BG has arguably a tougher nonconference schedule than we do: Tennessee (in Nashville), at Maryland, Memphis (at home), at Purdue.

I agree on that one, although they're comparable. BGSU will at least a chance at 3 out of 4 of those once team assessments sort out, but we only have a chance with 2 -- where one of them is a Given, and they have Zero givens. We'll have 1 given + small underdog + 2 given losses. They'll have 0 givens + 2 small underdog (Purdue, Memphis) + 2 Big Underdog (Tenn, Maryland)

Quote:Not one of those teams should have a winning record?

Memphis is expected to be about 8-4 + being in the AAC, last year being at the top and their coach staying. The others? They're P5s on the road -- unless they're 3W and under, it's not going to be expected for a BGSU win. Tenn is in the SEC. A Typical 4-8 team would beat almost all G5s at home.

Quote: Babers led his team to the MACC due to the overall weakness of the East last season, but "Falcon Fast" didn't exactly set the MAC world on fire in Year 1

Their star was out, and a new coach coming in expecting him to play during the season. I would also say that BGSU was weaker than they could have been that year. Bring in Matt Johnson and the coach settling in, I'm HIV *POSITIVE* that they'll be notably much better! :)

After losing to MSU & Ohio State, we could only lose *1* of these to be 9-3:
- @Toledo
- @NIU
- @GA-Southern
- Bowling Green [Improved]
- @Ohio
- Ball State [Improved]
- CMU, Miami, @EMU, and Murray State (sweeping all)

BGSUCKS still needs to prove they can play defense. It doesn't matter how fast anyone is, if their defense can't stop anyone they won't beat any of the top MAC teams.

(07-10-2015 06:54 PM)Doo Wrote:  

(07-10-2015 05:09 PM)The Colonel Wrote:  We'll see. BG has arguably a tougher nonconference schedule than we do: Tennessee (in Nashville), at Maryland, Memphis (at home), at Purdue.

What are you on? Not one of those teams should have a winning record? And saying Babers basically had a free pass to the MACC....he did it in his first year with the backup QB.

What are you on? Three of those four teams were in bowls last season.

Todd hit the nail on the head: there isn't a single guaranteed win in that bunch. If you want to argue our nonconference schedule is tougher because it includes MSU and OSU, I'd concede that, but at least for us, unless we implode, we have what should be one sure win coming (Murray State). No matter how you spin it, BG can't say that.

Either you're intentionally selling Tennessee short to try to make your argument, or you didn't pay attention to them last season. It would be a mild surprise, but not a total shock, if Tennessee wins the SEC East this year. BG isn't beating the Vols in Nashville. Do they have a chance on the road against the two B1G teams? A chance, sure, but they won't be favored against either. That leaves Memphis at home - a Memphis team that was American co-champs a season ago. BG absolutely has a chance to win one non-conference game, but there's a better chance they start 0-4 then 2-2 or better.

I didn't say BG had a "free pass" in the East - your words, not mine - but I won't dispute that basic premise. How did BG fare against their MAC West opponents last season?

WMU: L (14-26)
at Toledo: L (20-27)
Ball State: L (24-41)
NIU, MACC: L (17-51)

None of those games was particularly close - BG got a couple of late scores against Toledo to make that score look closer than it was. Since you seem to want to pick and choose which parts of my argument to address, I have to ask why you refuse to even acknowledge that we dominated this team on the road last season? If Franklin doesn't take a knee at the one in the last minute, we would have beat them in their house by nearly 20. You also haven't acknowledged their season-long defensive deficiencies, as Potts pointed out.

And we should put this home game against BG on the same level as the Sun Belt champions, NIU, and Toledo (all road games) in terms of degree of difficulty? To paraphrase what Denny Green once famously said, if you want to crown 'em, you go ahead and crown 'em. I'm not going to put BG up on a pedestal.

I'm not sure why you've switched the argument to BGSUs non con schedule. I will give you that Memphis will have a winning record. But I'm pretty comfortable saying the other three will not. Check back with me in December.


Can we move back to the topic. WMUs top realistic achievable record is 8-4. May mathematically going 9-3 is possible but so is 14-0. I'll stay with my statement along with my belief that 7-5 or 6-6 is where it ends up. Games are in three categories.

Tier 1
MSU & OSU. 25% or worse chance of winning.

Tier 2
Toledo, BGSU, NIU, GS. Toss ups. Probably split

Tier 3
Ohio, BSU, CMU. 25% or worse chance of losing. 3-0 or 2-1

Tier 4
All others virtually guaranteed wins.

If you held my feet to the fire

MSU. L
GSU. L
Murray W
OSU L
CMU. W
Ohio W
Miami W
Eastern W
BSU. W
BGSU W
Toledo L
NIU L

7-5.....depending on matchup 8-5 or 7-6