The 12th team is negligible to the value proposition to Fox. For the same reason, Duke seems to be on ESPN twice a week so will the top of the conference enjoy unequal time on Fox. Simply, you are overstating the difference (if any existed) of any of these final teams playing Georgetown in December isnsome random year.

Is there a difference when Duke plays Va Tech instead Wake for California viewers? (Actually I would be interested to see that)

(02-19-2013 07:05 PM)Title Wrote:  The 12th team is negligible to the value proposition to Fox. For the same reason, Duke seems to be on ESPN twice a week so will the top of the conference enjoy unequal time on Fox. Simply, you are overstating the difference (if any existed) of any of these final teams playing Georgetown in December isnsome random year.

You're being too clever by 1/2 here. C7 wanted 10, Fox wants 12. Period. Pretending #11 matters but #12 doesn't certainly fits your thinking, but is completely arbitrary and I'm afraid I don't even begin to follow the logic behind such a claim. Fox wanted two additional teams because they want as many viewers as possible. That's the singular motivation there.

(02-19-2013 07:05 PM)Title Wrote:  Is there a difference when Duke plays Va Tech instead Wake for California viewers? (Actually I would be interested to see that)

Irrelevant question is irrelevant. There is a difference in Georgetown playing SLU or Creighton instead of VCU or even UR for that matter. What you claim to be marginal is so only in completely ignoring the forest for the trees of a shifting mid-atlantic/BosWash conference market composition.

(02-19-2013 06:09 PM)College Basketball Fan Wrote:  

(02-19-2013 05:27 PM)Title Wrote:  I was specifically told last night that the 5 teams will be Butler, Xavier, Richmond, St Louis, and Dayton.....

If you are really entertaining further conversation about Creighton, Dayton appears to be the obvious one to feel nervous.

Like I said before, I'm not asking anyone to believe that. Its simply what I was told and I don't doubt it to be true

I'm not trying to say you are wrong, because I believe it is entirely possible you are right. But what that information tells me is that the C7 Presidents have enough power to control the decision, and that they are going to focus on non-basketball priorities. For instance, look at who would be a possible tournament team next year out of the new conference:

Near Definite (90%): Marquette, Georgetown, Butler
Pretty Good Chance (70%): St. John's, Xavier
Low Chance (30%): Villanova, Providence, Saint Louis
Very Low Chance (10%): DePaul, Seton Hall, Dayton, Richmond

Roughly speaking, I see about 5 bids from that group, but I think you easily see only 3 teams getting into the tournament from that group. Going forward, I would expect the league to trend down from that, with 3-4 good teams a year and a solid 7 teams that consistently underperform.

That league is not a power conference, and has very little chance of becoming a power conference in the future. Honestly, I think the MWC would be better than that conference, and the nBE would be about the same level even with schools like Tulane. The A-10 could become a competitor if Creighton and Wichita State join with VCU.

That may work for the terms of one media deal, but expect a much smaller deal 10 years down the road.

I think I'd combine the 2 middle groups into a bigger group with 50% odds of making the tourney. I think VCU would be almost in between the 90% and 50% groups- instead of one of the 10% teams.

(02-19-2013 08:02 PM)thegalen Wrote:  

(02-19-2013 07:05 PM)Title Wrote:  The 12th team is negligible to the value proposition to Fox. For the same reason, Duke seems to be on ESPN twice a week so will the top of the conference enjoy unequal time on Fox. Simply, you are overstating the difference (if any existed) of any of these final teams playing Georgetown in December isnsome random year.

You're being too clever by 1/2 here. C7 wanted 10, Fox wants 12. Period. Pretending #11 matters but #12 doesn't certainly fits your thinking, but is completely arbitrary and I'm afraid I don't even begin to follow the logic behind such a claim. Fox wanted two additional teams because they want as many viewers as possible. That's the singular motivation there.

(02-19-2013 07:05 PM)Title Wrote:  Is there a difference when Duke plays Va Tech instead Wake for California viewers? (Actually I would be interested to see that)

Irrelevant question is irrelevant. There is a difference when Georgetown plays SLU or Creighton instead of VCU or even UR for that matter. What you claim to be marginal is so only in completely ignoring the forest for the trees of a shifting mid-atlantic/BosWash conference market composition.

Then why are they talking about 12 or 14?

(02-19-2013 08:26 PM)NJRedMan Wrote:  

(02-19-2013 08:02 PM)thegalen Wrote:  

(02-19-2013 07:05 PM)Title Wrote:  The 12th team is negligible to the value proposition to Fox. For the same reason, Duke seems to be on ESPN twice a week so will the top of the conference enjoy unequal time on Fox. Simply, you are overstating the difference (if any existed) of any of these final teams playing Georgetown in December isnsome random year.

You're being too clever by 1/2 here. C7 wanted 10, Fox wants 12. Period. Pretending #11 matters but #12 doesn't certainly fits your thinking, but is completely arbitrary and I'm afraid I don't even begin to follow the logic behind such a claim. Fox wanted two additional teams because they want as many viewers as possible. That's the singular motivation there.

(02-19-2013 07:05 PM)Title Wrote:  Is there a difference when Duke plays Va Tech instead Wake for California viewers? (Actually I would be interested to see that)

Irrelevant question is irrelevant. There is a difference when Georgetown plays SLU or Creighton instead of VCU or even UR for that matter. What you claim to be marginal is so only in completely ignoring the forest for the trees of a shifting mid-atlantic/BosWash conference market composition.

Then why are they talking about 12 or 14?

If the C7 wanted 10, and now 12-14 are being discussed, this again underlines the reality that Fox is driving the bus here. Where else is the C7 going to go? Nowhere. 14 vs. 12 (when the initial idea being floated by the C7 was 10) would be even stronger evidence that Fox is flexing on the presidents.

It is kind of interesting thinking about things in terms of Fox trying to create a market with the Big Ten adds in conjunction with the C7 adds. If Big Ten is heading to Virginia and North Carolina, Fox may really want VCU for aiding in setting the market in Virginia(along with Georgetown).

I'm actually in a lot of ways surprised ESPN didn't make a bigger push for the C7 quite frankly. I would have thought they would want to keep Fox out of the eastern basketball business quite frankly and nip the winter season in the bud....

(02-19-2013 09:45 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-19-2013 09:33 AM)gosports1 Wrote:  Why are people still bringing up travel for non revenue sports to Omaha as an issue? They go to Florida now and will go to Texas next year. You dont play EVERY team in your conference in team sports like softball,volleyball and soccer. Providence played at Creighton in men's soccer last year. They can do it again every other year if called for. Omaha is not the end of the earth

why do you act like the schools might not want to improve their travel situation?

just looking- in volleyball you do play everyone. Soccer looks like divisional setup. Softball same as Soccer but with no divisions.

if they are traveling between providence and philadelphia to st louis and milwaukee anyway, how much of a burden is it to go to omaha? We're talking 3 sports m/w basketball and volleyball (i will take your word) None of the other sports require you play EVERY member. If volleyball does than set up pairs for the matches. play one school on thursday the other on saturday (stlouis/omaha. depaul/marquette, providence/villanova, stjohns/setonhall, gtown/the virginia school, xavier/butler)
OMAHA IS CLOSER THAN DALLAS HOUSTON AND MIAMI!!! Its not a problem now why would it be in 2 years? Especially since it appears that the schools involved will be taking in more $$$
Creighton may not get the nod. IMO claiming its too far away for olympic sports in just an easy out and historically inaccurate

(02-19-2013 01:45 PM)Jet915 Wrote:  Rumors are rumors. You can go on the Providence board right now and someone there who sounds pretty confident is saying Butler and Xavier are already in, Creighton is well thought of, SLU is "on the bubble" and Dayton is lobbying hard. Says Richmond is NOT on the list and Sienna and Detroit being mentioned is a joke.

what board is this? i havent been there. id like to check it out.

(02-19-2013 05:28 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I really don't see Fox excited about Richmond in any fashion at all vs VCU. And I could see them make it worth more $$$ to go with VCU. VCU vs Georgetown, Villanova, St Johns, Butler, Xavier- those games are instant good TV matchups that would be great games.. Richmond vs those schools- no where near as much. Richmond doesn't move the needle at all. VCU would be the 3rd choice I think for Fox quite frankly- after only Butler and Xavier.

Since when have you started pulling for VCU? Is this a cahnge of heart?

I think I'm being pretty realistic. I think Fox is driving the bus a LOT more than some of you hope. I think it's clear with some of the things we've heard(14 being an option for one) that is the case.

(02-19-2013 09:08 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I think I'm being pretty realistic. I think Fox is driving the bus a LOT more than some of you hope. I think it's clear with some of the things we've heard(14 being an option for one) that is the case.

I'll use a comparison here: I don't think that the Big Ten is going to have 10 conference football games. However, when Jim Delany said that they were only discussing having either 9 or 10 conference games (with 8 being off the table), the purpose was really to show that the status quo was simply not an option anymore to the ADs.

Likewise, I highly doubt that the Catholic 7 will go to 14, but the fact that the debate is now between 12 and 14 as opposed to 10 and 12 shows the shift. The more conservative expansion is simply off the table at this point.

(02-19-2013 09:49 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(02-19-2013 09:08 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I think I'm being pretty realistic. I think Fox is driving the bus a LOT more than some of you hope. I think it's clear with some of the things we've heard(14 being an option for one) that is the case.

I'll use a comparison here: I don't think that the Big Ten is going to have 10 conference football games. However, when Jim Delany said that they were only discussing having either 9 or 10 conference games (with 8 being off the table), the purpose was really to show that the status quo was simply not an option anymore to the ADs.

Likewise, I highly doubt that the Catholic 7 will go to 14, but the fact that the debate is now between 12 and 14 as opposed to 10 and 12 shows the shift. The more conservative expansion is simply off the table at this point.

FWIW St Louis leads VCU by 17 at half
p.s. i really want creighton

thegalen,

I'm sorry VCU isn't getting into this league. What do want us to say? I don't think anyone is being vindictive. It just isn't a fit. I'm sure the Rams will land on their feet somewhere.

(02-18-2013 11:15 PM)Title Wrote:  Take this completely for what it worth. I got this second hand this evening, so you know how that goes. But to tell you the truth, this particular person has never steered me wrong in the few times he's said something to me. In fact, last time, he told me a full week before the public was informed about an injury.

I was told: Butler, Xavier, SLU, Dayton, and Richmond. Public after Final Four.

Again, completely FWIW

Someone from Marquette seems to disagree w/your source.....

Newark, N.J. - A Marquette official said Tuesday night that major portions of a Washington Post story about a new league with two divisions of six teams each wasn't true.

According to the story, the East division would be Georgetown, St. John's, Seton Hall, Villanova, Providence and either Richmond or Siena. The West or Midwest division would be Marquette, DePaul, St. Louis, Xavier, Dayton and Butler.

Marquette doesn't see Richmond or Siena as part of its new league.

It was also reported that Georgetown President John J. DeGioia is the person "who has been charged with piecing together the new league" because the six other Catholic 7 presidents are interested in the process.

Marquette disputed that, too.

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/191910991.html

(02-19-2013 10:06 PM)gosports1 Wrote:  FWIW St Louis leads VCU by 17 at half
p.s. i really want creighton

I'm starting to like Providence

(02-19-2013 10:19 PM)Title Wrote:  thegalen,

I'm sorry VCU isn't getting into this league. What do want us to say? I don't think anyone is being vindictive. It just isn't a fit. I'm sure the Rams will land on their feet somewhere.

You don't have any idea(outside of your "source") that is the case at all. VCU has (outside of tonight) darn good ball, something this new conference needs. It's obvious Fox has a whole hell of a lot of pull right now and they would want them. You might not like that statement, but it is the case.

(02-19-2013 10:27 PM)Jet915 Wrote:  

(02-18-2013 11:15 PM)Title Wrote:  Take this completely for what it worth. I got this second hand this evening, so you know how that goes. But to tell you the truth, this particular person has never steered me wrong in the few times he's said something to me. In fact, last time, he told me a full week before the public was informed about an injury.

I was told: Butler, Xavier, SLU, Dayton, and Richmond. Public after Final Four.

Again, completely FWIW

Someone from Marquette seems to disagree w/your source.....

Newark, N.J. - A Marquette official said Tuesday night that major portions of a Washington Post story about a new league with two divisions of six teams each wasn't true.

According to the story, the East division would be Georgetown, St. John's, Seton Hall, Villanova, Providence and either Richmond or Siena. The West or Midwest division would be Marquette, DePaul, St. Louis, Xavier, Dayton and Butler.

Marquette doesn't see Richmond or Siena as part of its new league.

It was also reported that Georgetown President John J. DeGioia is the person "who has been charged with piecing together the new league" because the six other Catholic 7 presidents are interested in the process.

Marquette disputed that, too.

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/191910991.html

um, they don't see Detroit or Siena as part of the new league:
Marquette doesn't see Detroit, which was mentioned as a possibility, or Siena as part of its new league.

nothing about Richmond at all....

What part of this is so hard for you to understand? I don't CARE who the 12 member of the conference is. It makes absolutely no difference to me. It simply wont be a public school program. On the rest, I honestly do not care what you want to hold onto. I think I made that abundantly clear. I'm 100% certain it's at least the equal of ol' boy in Milwaukee

(02-19-2013 10:40 PM)Title Wrote:  What part of this is so hard for you to understand? I don't CARE who the 12 member of the conference is. It makes absolutely no difference to me. It simply wont be a public school program. On the rest, I honestly do not care what you want to hold onto. I think I made that abundantly clear. I'm 100% certain it's at least the equal of ol' boy in Milwaukee

There end of the day won't be a litmus test to get into this league. Fox will want the best basketball programs. PERIOD. Not the best private basketball programs. And, Fox has a whole lot of clout in that. $$$ talks.