(11-19-2012 04:23 PM)Eagleditka Wrote:  ACC backfills with UConn. If FSU, Clemson, and GT leave, then they add Louisville, Cincinnati, and USF. If the SEC snags VT and NC State? No clue, probably settle at 12 teams. The Big East is going after BYU, Fresno, Air Force, Army, and East Carolina. The Big East has no interest in Marshall. CUSA will target MTSU, WKU, FAU, App State, and ULL. Just my prediction.

So if they have no interest in Marshall; do they have more or less interest in MTSU than Marshall?

UConn sued Boston College and the ACC over BC leaving. I'd wager UConn watches Louisville join the ACC.

(11-19-2012 04:30 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  

(11-19-2012 04:23 PM)Eagleditka Wrote:  ACC backfills with UConn. If FSU, Clemson, and GT leave, then they add Louisville, Cincinnati, and USF. If the SEC snags VT and NC State? No clue, probably settle at 12 teams. The Big East is going after BYU, Fresno, Air Force, Army, and East Carolina. The Big East has no interest in Marshall. CUSA will target MTSU, WKU, FAU, App State, and ULL. Just my prediction.

So if they have no interest in Marshall; do they have more or less interest in MTSU than Marshall?

MTSU = Nashville
Marshall = Huntington

You do the math.

(11-19-2012 04:23 PM)Eagleditka Wrote:  ACC backfills with UConn. If FSU, Clemson, and GT leave, then they add Louisville, Cincinnati, and USF. If the SEC snags VT and NC State? No clue, probably settle at 12 teams. The Big East is going after BYU, Fresno, Air Force, Army, and East Carolina. The Big East has no interest in Marshall. CUSA will target MTSU, WKU, FAU, App State, and ULL. Just my prediction.

There's absolutely ZERO chance CUSA targets WKU. They'll target MTSU and possibly ULL, ASU, or FAU but WKU will not be on their list. WKU is in the Sun Belt and will remain so until the SBC falls apart....not saying it will.

(11-19-2012 03:41 PM)WKUFan518 Wrote:  All of this needs to stop....Blow up every conference, get a map out and refigure every conference, haha...

Don't laugh. Thats probably the best idea I have heard yet.

How about we just go after South Florida. There is a good chance that the new adds to the BE never actually go to the BE. Boise and SJS stay in the MWC. So why not go ahead and go after the schools we want that are committed to the BE, Houston, South Florida, Memphis, offer them a home. All would help the SBC.

(11-19-2012 04:05 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  

(11-19-2012 03:40 PM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  This is pretty far off base right now. For starters, the Big East has several other schools on the speed dial you didn't even mention. Namely BYU, Air Force and Fresno. The nBE continues to have interest in expanding more out west.
Further, (and you probably won't hear this from anywhere else) the ACC is actually considering going to 16 right now. They are not going to be able to replace the DMV/Delmarva area with one team (not even UConn which only quasi gets you NY). There are some discussion inside the ACC about adding three to include three of the following Louisville, Cincy, UConn, South Fla and from what I was told a short while ago they are even as desperate to throw West Virginia back on the table. Personally, I think the ACC sticks to 14, but it makes sense for them to add CT/NY, Tampa and either Louisville or Cincinnati markets.
You may also see some nBE schools get cold feet. I'm just saying trying to predict this right now is impossible. Even with as good of connections and contacts that I have I can't tell you what's going to happen tomorrow other than Rutgers will join the Big 10 and UConn at a minimum will probably announce to the ACC.
After that all hell is going to break loose.

What your writing here adds way to much complexity to the next round of realignment. Adding more schools than you need to replace lost members increases the complexity of your own realignment exponentially.

The easiest move and the model which has been followed (for the most part) on nearly all reactionary realignment has been to replace the same number of lost members with members from a geographically similar location.

Though you're right about the Big East looking west, they've really been a loose cannon during this entire exercise. And you may also be right about certain conferences ultimate goals of moving beyond 14 members. But in general, the lesser conferences have been reactionary to the major conferences proactive moves.

I don't see any of the lesser conferences making bold moves right now. You saw what happened to the WAC when they got uppity and stuck their necks out.

I agree with that. They are probably just kicking tires, but nothing surprises me with this stuff anymore. Wouldn't surprise me to see ACC take Louisville or USF over UConn either although I think FSU will do everything they can to prevent that.

With the Big East no longer being an AQ conference there are fewer and fewer reasons to jump.

The basketball money is maxed out. The television contract will drop significantly. Schools need to take a deep breath before jumping on that sinking ship.

CUSA will not pursue App. Only ECU wanted them last time and if ECU leaves nobody will want them, except maybe Charlotte, but I think that is unlikely.

App is SBC or bust.

Look my opinion..As long as MTSU , Ark st , Troy , WKU..and either ULL or ULm are together in the future. We will be stronger than CUSA or aka Big east rejects

(11-20-2012 12:23 AM)RustonCAT Wrote:  Look my opinion..As long as MTSU , Ark st , Troy , WKU..and either ULL or ULm are together in the future. We will be stronger than CUSA or aka Big east rejects

MT is as good as gone to CUSA. One of either WKU or FAU probably is too. You can rest easily that Ark ST, Troy, ULL, and ULM will stick together, just not by choice.

(11-20-2012 12:23 AM)RustonCAT Wrote:  Look my opinion..As long as MTSU , Ark st , Troy , WKU..and either ULL or ULm are together in the future. We will be stronger than CUSA or aka Big east rejects

MT is as good as gone to CUSA. One of WKU or FAU probably is too. You can rest easily that Ark ST, Troy, ULL, and ULM will stick together, just not by choice.

As long as we're still with WKU, I really don't care where we (MT) ends up.

I feel like were the siamese twins are stuck together, can't stand each other, but realize that we're better together. Travel partners, rivalry, similar programs, and heck, if you take our traditionally strong FB program with WKU's traditionally strong BBall program, we've kind of got some kind of symbiotic relationship thing going.

CUSA sans ECU isn't that interesting, but it's the classic prisoner's dilemma - if we say "no" to that invite, how can we be sure that WKU or Troy or ASU will also say "no".

You can't be sure ASU will say "no" because other than Olympic sports we have no close ties to anyone else. We have a long history of relationship with Louisiana and almost as long with ULM but any time Memphis is on the schedule, they aren't the game our fans most focus on.

The bottom line though is Conference USA isn't going to look at 18 wins in two years, the fact that ASU pays its football coach a salary that would be one of the highest in CUSA nor that the basketball coach has a salary that is at the CUSA median, nor that ASU is building a $22 million or so indoor football practice and office complex, nor the strong bowl sales last year. They will look simply at the fact Jonesboro as a market is basically Hattiesburg and the game is over.

The funny thing is, Nate Silver ran an estimate prior to 2011 of how many fans a school has. Silver is the guy who got blasted as being a partisan for his election estimates prior to the returns coming in that showed he had nailed it. Remember this was done before ASU posted consecutive record attendances (and prior to the Cajuns blowing up their attendance records). His model looked at self-identification, TV viewership data, internet searches, and attendance. (ie. you can have poor attendance but if your fans are watching games or searching google for team information, attendance isn't revealing all the data. Likewise the sources of this data can skew a bit because of basketball interest that doesn't translate into football fans).

Here's his estimate of remaining C-USA and Sun Belt.
#1 Troy 381,102
#2. Southern Mississippi 361,613
#3. East Carolina 348,391
#4 Arkansas State 312,058
#5 UAB 236,825 (likely skewed because of basketball)
#6 Memphis 235,656 (ditto)
#7 Marshall 225,810
#8 North Texas 202,188
#9 ULM 185,462 (skewed a bit because of Little Rock factor)
#10 Louisiana Tech 179,991
#11 FIU 178,669
#12 MTSU 169,621
#13 Louisiana 152,504 (I believe the internet search factor is a killer because of the variety of references makes it likely some elements were missed Louisiana Cajuns for example would have so many false hits, it likely wasn't considered).
#14 FAU 145,469
#15 Rice 126,901
#16 Tulsa 119,686
#17 Western Kentucky 70,821 (Silver admits this data is off)

This really points out that TV is likely using a flawed model. Among the non-AQ the five most popular programs by these measures are (in order) Troy, USM, ECU, ASU, Wyoming but they are among the least valuable according to TV. If merchandise sales were factored in, my guess is Louisiana is in the top five.

There is no way in hell that UAb as a quarter of a million fans....

(11-20-2012 11:27 AM)Usajags Wrote:  There is no way in hell that UAb as a quarter of a million fans....

Actually, it is quite feasible.

(11-20-2012 11:27 AM)Usajags Wrote:  There is no way in hell that UAb as a quarter of a million fans....

As I said, the numbers skew and pick-up some basketball.

Don't confuse attendance with being the sole true measure of support.

UAB brings in as much in contributions as USA and Troy combined. They do fairly well in merchandise sales. Now a lot of that is basketball related and doesn't convert into football attendance, but it doesn't mean that the fans aren't out there, they just haven't been motivated to attend football games.

(11-19-2012 11:56 PM)Niner National Wrote:  CUSA will not pursue App. Only ECU wanted them last time and if ECU leaves nobody will want them, except maybe Charlotte, but I think that is unlikely.

App is SBC or bust.

Nobody wants UNCC and yet somehow yall got an invite. Thanks to your "market". App St is a millions times better add then UNCC but "market money" blinds all.

(11-20-2012 12:15 PM)slycat Wrote:  Nobody wants UNCC and yet somehow yall got an invite. Thanks to your "market". App St is a millions times better add then UNCC but "market money" blinds all.

Yep. Welcome to the Big 10; Rutgers?

The Sun Belt members should stay strong and have Benson and ESPN go after the remaining C-USA school and go to at super conference to boost our standing in the shakeouts.