(03-24-2024 05:06 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(03-24-2024 12:59 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  I don't see any of the B12 western schools leaving for the ACC, so you can forget Zona, ASU, Utah and Colorado.

I've never quite understood why OSU and Wazzu get talked about so much in realignment, they got left behind for a reason. They really haven't been a power in football or basketball and they are much more in line with the MWC schools than ACC schools. They have had over a 100 year association with a major conference and are now becoming G5 programs with a soon to be P5 budget. That is going to hurt... a lot. Wazzu is in a much worse place financially than OSU.

Were the ACC to look west they would need to take at least three to create a pod of 5 for the west. OSU has a better following that Wazzu so I would say the first two taken are OSU and SDSU. After that it would be a choice between UNLV and Wazzu. UNLV has a higher ceiling than Wazzu. However, the PAC2 can only keep the money they are getting from their association with the PAC if they maintain the PAC conference.

I can think of 15m reasons that WOSU get talked about in Realignment, even after they were left for dead. That's the number of eyeballs that they combined to get across 3 games last season, and 2 of those games (OSU-Oregon and WSU-US) are coming back for the next half decade at least. Don't get me wrong, OSU and WSU seem primed for a letdown on the gridiron this year, but if they can rally around the "nobody believed in us" flag and have a decent season in 2024, those rivalry games will draw a bunch of eyeballs this year, too. Far more than anyone outside of CSU with their token Deion game will get, and quite possibly far more than the most-watched games for half of the P4.

That doesn't mean that this ever goes beyond the "talking" phase, as Boise St and Memphis well know, and there might be other programs like Memphis, Boise, USF and/or SDSU that get in ahead of them, but it does mean that WOSU are at least going to be in the conversation despite their recent abandonment.

Yeah, now go four years down the road and ask how many eyeballs they will get when they are playing schedule of Wyoming, Utah State, New Mexico etc on CBSSN.

Both OSU and Wazzu are going from a P5 schedule to a G5 one and they both have a P5 budget when they will quickly have to adjust to a G5 one. That will be difficult, especially for Wazzu who has a debt problem even with P5 revenue. Again, if not for a 100 year plus association with the PAC schools (preceding that of Zona, ASU, Colorado and Utah, by the way) where would they be? Again, at best they would be middle MWC or WAC.

Considering the B12 was in talks with SDSU last time, I’d say they’re a clear #1 for us in this scenario. #2 probably goes to Oregon State, UNLV, or Wazzu.

(03-24-2024 08:33 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-24-2024 03:02 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(03-24-2024 02:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-24-2024 01:04 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(03-24-2024 12:48 PM)goofus Wrote:  People need to stop grouping Wash St and Ore St together as M2 candidates. Ore St can be considered one of the top tier candidates out west along with SDSU and Col St.

Tier 1
1. SDSU
2. Ore St
3. Col St

Wash St is down another tier and has an academic ranking and fan attendance ranking that fits the MWC perfectly.

Tier2
4. Wash St - ideal for MWC
5. UNLV - lot of growth potential and a great market. Makes sense for Big 12.
6. Fresno St
7. Hawaii
8. New Mexico - fills a hole geographically for Big 12

I understand the thinking about CSU, they have good facilities, very good academics, but have not had much success in football. Also, they are second fiddle to Colorado. No way they got to the B12 with Colorado already there, however. I'd put UNLV ahead of them because of their potential and growing market and the fact that, if the ACC goes west, they are going as far west as they can. Both would be preferred adds by the PAC2, however.

CSU and UNLV have potential, but they are among the worst programs in college football historically. If they didn't spend a lot of time with New Mexico, UTEP and New Mexico St., they would be even lower. They simply are not candidates at this point in time.

I wouldn't say CSU has been historically bad in football but agree with you on UNLV. From experience with SDSU, I am not a fan of college teams playing in an NFL venue but, then again, the Spanos family were greedy bastards that were no friend to SDSU. They wanted to get every penny they could out of the city and the stadium. I've heard that UNLV got a decent deal from the Raiders. They had a good season in 2023 and they retained their HC. I do think the LV market is getting saturated, however, so that is a concern. Still, if you are planning a road trip to follow your team would you prefer Corvallis or Pulman over Vegas baby.

I really don't see any of the PAC teams leaving the B12 for the ACC so you are left with just 5 programs in the Pacific Time Zone: SDSU, OSU, Wazzu, UNLV and Fresno. The latter, along with Boise, won't make it academically in the ACC conversation. If the ACC does look west, they look to need to take at least 3 to make sense,

CSU has a 47.5% all time winning % according to the 2015 NCAA records book.
Schools who had played football for more than 25 years (not JUST FBS football, but any division) with a worse record (in no particular order)
UNLV
UTEP
New Mexico
New Mexico St.
Rice
Northwestern
Tulane
Wake Forest
Temple
Indiana
Iowa St.
Kansas St.
Kent St.
E. Michigan
Buffalo
UL-Monroe

So only 16 below. That's pretty bad.

Thanks for the list, nice to know. Again, I have said that, should the ACC look to expand west, then they would be looking at SDSU, OSU, Wazzu and UNLV. CSU isn't in my top picks nor would they be considered for a B12 invite, given that Colorado is already in the B12. CSU would be considered for a PAC2 invite along with Tulane on your list. Looking at your list, perhaps the B12 should get rid of Iowa St. and Kansas St., they can go to the AAC and replaced bu SDSU and either OSU, Wazzu or UNLV. Not sure where Northwestern and Indiana would go but I am sure the B1G would be happy to be rid of them.

(03-24-2024 05:06 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(03-24-2024 12:59 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  I don't see any of the B12 western schools leaving for the ACC, so you can forget Zona, ASU, Utah and Colorado.

I've never quite understood why OSU and Wazzu get talked about so much in realignment, they got left behind for a reason. They really haven't been a power in football or basketball and they are much more in line with the MWC schools than ACC schools. They have had over a 100 year association with a major conference and are now becoming G5 programs with a soon to be P5 budget. That is going to hurt... a lot. Wazzu is in a much worse place financially than OSU.

Were the ACC to look west they would need to take at least three to create a pod of 5 for the west. OSU has a better following that Wazzu so I would say the first two taken are OSU and SDSU. After that it would be a choice between UNLV and Wazzu. UNLV has a higher ceiling than Wazzu. However, the PAC2 can only keep the money they are getting from their association with the PAC if they maintain the PAC conference.

I can think of 15m reasons that WOSU get talked about in Realignment, even after they were left for dead. That's the number of eyeballs that they combined to get across 3 games last season, and 2 of those games (OSU-Oregon and WSU-US) are coming back for the next half decade at least. Don't get me wrong, OSU and WSU seem primed for a letdown on the gridiron this year, but if they can rally around the "nobody believed in us" flag and have a decent season in 2024, those rivalry games will draw a bunch of eyeballs this year, too. Far more than anyone outside of CSU with their token Deion game will get, and quite possibly far more than the most-watched games for half of the P4.

That doesn't mean that this ever goes beyond the "talking" phase, as Boise St and Memphis well know, and there might be other programs like Memphis, Boise, USF and/or SDSU that get in ahead of them, but it does mean that WOSU are at least going to be in the conversation despite their recent abandonment.

Will those eyeballs be watching when they play a MWC schedule rather than a PAC12 one. And what happens after a few years where they have to adjust their budget to that of the MWC? Again neither OSU or Wazzu have much of a history of success in FB or BB in the PAC. They may have a bit of money to maintain that P% budget for their major sports for a couple of years, but at some point they will be spending on at a level commensurate with whatever level conference they play in. They are now G5 schools. In any conversation for elevation they will be judged as they are now, not that they were once in a P5 conference. As I have said, the BIG, SEC, ACC and B12 would love to dump some of their "dead weight" as well. Every conference has that "dead weight" by the way.

(03-24-2024 05:06 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I can think of 15m reasons that WOSU get talked about in Realignment, even after they were left for dead. That's the number of eyeballs that they combined to get across 3 games last season, and 2 of those games (OSU-Oregon and WSU-US) are coming back for the next half decade at least. Don't get me wrong, OSU and WSU seem primed for a letdown on the gridiron this year, but if they can rally around the "nobody believed in us" flag and have a decent season in 2024, those rivalry games will draw a bunch of eyeballs this year, too. Far more than anyone outside of CSU with their token Deion game will get, and quite possibly far more than the most-watched games for half of the P4.

That doesn't mean that this ever goes beyond the "talking" phase, as Boise St and Memphis well know, and there might be other programs like Memphis, Boise, USF and/or SDSU that get in ahead of them, but it does mean that WOSU are at least going to be in the conversation despite their recent abandonment.

How do those numbers look over 5 or even 10 years, though? OSU and WSU both had historically above average seasons last year, and their biggest rivals in UO and UW were both in the national championship picture all season. I don't know if that perfect storm is consistently replicable going forward.

I think the ACC would seek to create a seven team western division before 2030 if possible:

West:Cal, Stanford, SMU, Utah, ASU, Utah, Kansas
South: FSU, Miami, GT, Clemson, Duke, Wake, Lville
East: Pitt, Cuse, UVA, UNC, VT, NCSt, BC

When you lose FSU is 2030, add in UCF and call it a day. I just don't see Clemson landing in the P2 for market redundancy in the SEC and not being academic peer in the B1G.

(03-24-2024 11:50 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(03-24-2024 08:33 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-24-2024 03:02 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(03-24-2024 02:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-24-2024 01:04 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  I understand the thinking about CSU, they have good facilities, very good academics, but have not had much success in football. Also, they are second fiddle to Colorado. No way they got to the B12 with Colorado already there, however. I'd put UNLV ahead of them because of their potential and growing market and the fact that, if the ACC goes west, they are going as far west as they can. Both would be preferred adds by the PAC2, however.

CSU and UNLV have potential, but they are among the worst programs in college football historically. If they didn't spend a lot of time with New Mexico, UTEP and New Mexico St., they would be even lower. They simply are not candidates at this point in time.

I wouldn't say CSU has been historically bad in football but agree with you on UNLV. From experience with SDSU, I am not a fan of college teams playing in an NFL venue but, then again, the Spanos family were greedy bastards that were no friend to SDSU. They wanted to get every penny they could out of the city and the stadium. I've heard that UNLV got a decent deal from the Raiders. They had a good season in 2023 and they retained their HC. I do think the LV market is getting saturated, however, so that is a concern. Still, if you are planning a road trip to follow your team would you prefer Corvallis or Pulman over Vegas baby.

I really don't see any of the PAC teams leaving the B12 for the ACC so you are left with just 5 programs in the Pacific Time Zone: SDSU, OSU, Wazzu, UNLV and Fresno. The latter, along with Boise, won't make it academically in the ACC conversation. If the ACC does look west, they look to need to take at least 3 to make sense,

CSU has a 47.5% all time winning % according to the 2015 NCAA records book.
Schools who had played football for more than 25 years (not JUST FBS football, but any division) with a worse record (in no particular order)
UNLV
UTEP
New Mexico
New Mexico St.
Rice
Northwestern
Tulane
Wake Forest
Temple
Indiana
Iowa St.
Kansas St.
Kent St.
E. Michigan
Buffalo
UL-Monroe

So only 16 below. That's pretty bad.

Thanks for the list, nice to know. Again, I have said that, should the ACC look to expand west, then they would be looking at SDSU, OSU, Wazzu and UNLV. CSU isn't in my top picks nor would they be considered for a B12 invite, given that Colorado is already in the B12. CSU would be considered for a PAC2 invite along with Tulane on your list. Looking at your list, perhaps the B12 should get rid of Iowa St. and Kansas St., they can go to the AAC and replaced bu SDSU and either OSU, Wazzu or UNLV. Not sure where Northwestern and Indiana would go but I am sure the B1G would be happy to be rid of them.

Kansas St. has turned it around. They were the absolute worst in the early 80s. But if there were a 14 team playoff starting in the BCS era, they would have made it 9 times according to a list on another thread. That would tie them for 12th with Notre Dame and Texas. The ones ahead of them are pretty obvious, Ohio St., Oklahoma, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, LSU, FSU, Michigan, Oregon, Penn St. and USC.

OSU and Wazzu are and have been MWC-level institutions and programs. They have just had much better resources and a prestige bump because of the long-time PAC association that disappears this summer.

SDSU would be a better fit with the Arizona and Utah schools and delivers much better access to TV viewership and recruiting. Also, the better basketball program, which carries weight with Big 12 decision-makers.

If the Big 12 *had* to select 2 western schools, I would go with Hawaii-football only as the second. The football-only association would not disrupt Olympic sports scheduling and travel and would allow the Big 12 to find a workable financial situation. Hawaii also give the Big 12 more football scheduling flexibility with the 13th game and Week 0 considerations and the less-valuable 10pm ET kickoff timeslot. Plus, Hawaii has history and rivalry embers with SDSU, BYU, and Utah.

(03-24-2024 05:00 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(03-24-2024 12:20 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(03-24-2024 10:56 AM)templefootballfan Wrote:  ACC would go after Ariz, ASU, Utah, Colo before they settle on OSU, WSU, SDST

B-12 would need some balance & pick up eastern schools before looking out west
Conn, USF, Memphis

Amen to this.

Why would any Big 12 school consider the ACC right now, especially a Western one? Academics? Come on. I'm optimistic that the ACC can avoid the Pac's fate, but the Yormark's would have to make a bunch of Pac-like missteps to open the door for a weakened-but-not-dead ACC to start raiding them.

Reason 1) Cal.
Reason 2) Stanford.

That’s one more reason than what’s needed.

All the western schools depend on CA exposure for students, recruits, and alumni outreach.

I think ACC is in waiting mode to poach the best out west from the Big12 in 2031/2.

ACC could weather the storm of FSU/Clemson/UNC?/1 other? leaving for P2….if that even happens before 2030. If they can’t weather those 2-4 leaving before 2030, then ACC will get some eastern schools and still wait til 2031/2 to get some Big12 members.

(03-25-2024 10:50 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-24-2024 11:50 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(03-24-2024 08:33 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-24-2024 03:02 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(03-24-2024 02:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  CSU and UNLV have potential, but they are among the worst programs in college football historically. If they didn't spend a lot of time with New Mexico, UTEP and New Mexico St., they would be even lower. They simply are not candidates at this point in time.

I wouldn't say CSU has been historically bad in football but agree with you on UNLV. From experience with SDSU, I am not a fan of college teams playing in an NFL venue but, then again, the Spanos family were greedy bastards that were no friend to SDSU. They wanted to get every penny they could out of the city and the stadium. I've heard that UNLV got a decent deal from the Raiders. They had a good season in 2023 and they retained their HC. I do think the LV market is getting saturated, however, so that is a concern. Still, if you are planning a road trip to follow your team would you prefer Corvallis or Pulman over Vegas baby.

I really don't see any of the PAC teams leaving the B12 for the ACC so you are left with just 5 programs in the Pacific Time Zone: SDSU, OSU, Wazzu, UNLV and Fresno. The latter, along with Boise, won't make it academically in the ACC conversation. If the ACC does look west, they look to need to take at least 3 to make sense,

CSU has a 47.5% all time winning % according to the 2015 NCAA records book.
Schools who had played football for more than 25 years (not JUST FBS football, but any division) with a worse record (in no particular order)
UNLV
UTEP
New Mexico
New Mexico St.
Rice
Northwestern
Tulane
Wake Forest
Temple
Indiana
Iowa St.
Kansas St.
Kent St.
E. Michigan
Buffalo
UL-Monroe

So only 16 below. That's pretty bad.

Thanks for the list, nice to know. Again, I have said that, should the ACC look to expand west, then they would be looking at SDSU, OSU, Wazzu and UNLV. CSU isn't in my top picks nor would they be considered for a B12 invite, given that Colorado is already in the B12. CSU would be considered for a PAC2 invite along with Tulane on your list. Looking at your list, perhaps the B12 should get rid of Iowa St. and Kansas St., they can go to the AAC and replaced bu SDSU and either OSU, Wazzu or UNLV. Not sure where Northwestern and Indiana would go but I am sure the B1G would be happy to be rid of them.

Kansas St. has turned it around. They were the absolute worst in the early 80s. But if there were a 14 team playoff starting in the BCS era, they would have made it 9 times according to a list on another thread. That would tie them for 12th with Notre Dame and Texas. The ones ahead of them are pretty obvious, Ohio St., Oklahoma, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, LSU, FSU, Michigan, Oregon, Penn St. and USC.

And I have said that potential is one of the things conferences will look when considering adding schools. UNLV is in new digs and, reportedly, have a decent deal with the Raiders. Las Vegas has grown quite a bit in the past few years. Over 1 million new since 2010, 1.6M since 2000, with a population approaching 3M.