Seems pretty obvious Sankey and Petitti jointly decided "let's get the money straight, then we can figure out the rest later."

From the figures Ross Dellenger provided, a ballpark estimate of the split of ESPN's $1.3B package breaks down as follows:

B1G/SEC (34 members):

• collectively receives 58% of the $1.3B ($754M)
  

• each school receives a share of 1.7% ($22M)
  

BIG XII/ACC (33 members not including ND)

• collectively receives 32% of the $1.3B ($429M)
  

• each school receives a share of 1.0% ($13M)
  

NOTRE DAME

• receives a share of 1.0% of the 1.3B ($13M)
  

AAC/MWC/SBC/MAC/CUSA (64 members)

• collectively receives 9% of the $1.3B ($152M)
  

• each school receives a share of 0.24% ($1.4M)
  

Again, these are ballpark calculations and likely on the high side. There's overhead and administrative costs to consider, plus as Ross mentions UConn's share is TBD.

Basically, though:
P2: 1¾ share per member
M2: 1 share per member
G5: ¼ share per member

- - - - -

Will be interesting to see if those numbers change (and the gap widens) if/when the P2 decide to expand again. It's basically a lock any SEC/B1G additions will come from among ACC/Notre Dame/Big XII. It's just as certain neither Sankey or Petitti will ask current SEC/B1G members to take a haircut on their ~$22M CFP shares.

Without an M2 (or M1) per share cut (G5 crumbs not worth touching), the math doesn't work if new M2 to P2 schools are allotted the full $22M upon joining. So unless there's some built in escalator with ESPN, the guess is new P2 schools would stay at $13M until the next CFP agreement begins in 2032.

Worth noting that there are advantages for Sankey and Petitti in not letting new members receive a full share from Day One.

1. Appeases bean-counting existing members by making new members earn equity over a 6-year span

2. Avoids accusations the P2 conferences are enticing M2 schools with a higher CFP payout

There was a point you noted. They have been working on revenue allocation and governance, but not so much on the format.

Oregon State and/or Washington State may still be independents like UConn in 2026, when this new formula goes into effect, not necessarily MWC members.

Somewhere I saw that the money distribution is ~85 or 90% fixed by those percentages, with the rest performance and overhead. (Somebody will find that tweet/X or article mentioning that)

Dennis Dodd was given a breakdown of SEC 29%, B1G 29%, ACC 17%, XII 15%, ND 1% and G5 the rest, minus whatever UConn and possibly WSU and OSU if Independent will get. Dodd's percentages are rough, and I think reflect in fact an equal per school amount for the ACC, Big 12 and ND, so some rounding error here. No way would Yormark accept less than the ACC. The actual percentages seem to be:

SEC = 29%
B1G = 29%
// yes, it seems less per school than the SEC. These two calling the shots, splitting money between conference entities not schools.
ACC = 16.4848%
Big 12 = 15.5151%
ND = 0.9696%
// this could explain Dodd told the 17, 15, 1% formula from rounding.

I suspect they will calculate Independents a bit lower than G5 average. G5 wants to have some leverage over independents. But UConn, being in the Big East and with FOX might have some leverage. Oregon State and Washington State also can be a hassle with their Pac-12 bag, willingness to sue. So, I'll calculate independents as G5 average.

G5 = 8.625% = 0.135% per school
3x Independents = ~ 0.135% per school

But this is $1.75m average per school, and Independents only get something like $350K now. A 40% bump is only around $500K. This makes me think UConn, OSU and WSU can probably only expect somewhere between $500K and $1M. There really is no incentive for the G5 to agree to reduce their share for these schools. The G5 also has preferred a performance heavy component for their share. That might continue, where the top placing conference might get $2.25M per school and the bottom only $1.25M per school. This will be settled by the G5 themselves. They may only agree to set aside a maximum of say $2.2M of their share for Independents, keeping an average of $1.8M for each of their schools. In fact that's my WAG for the amount, about $730K for the three Independents.

(03-14-2024 01:38 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Oregon State and/or Washington State may still be independents like UConn in 2026, when this new formula goes into effect, not necessarily MWC members.

Somewhere I saw that the money distribution is ~85 or 90% fixed by those percentages, with the rest performance and overhead. (Somebody will find that tweet/X or article mentioning that)

Dennis Dodd was given a breakdown of SEC 29%, B1G 29%, ACC 17%, XII 15%, ND 1% and G5 the rest, minus whatever UConn and possibly WSU and OSU if Independent will get. Dodd's percentages are rough, and I think reflect in fact an equal per school amount for the ACC, Big 12 and ND, so some rounding error here. No way would Yormark accept less than the ACC. The actual percentages seem to be:

SEC = 29%
B1G = 29%
// yes, it seems less per school than the SEC. These two calling the shots, splitting money between conference entities not schools.
ACC = 16.4848%
Big 12 = 15.5151%
ND = 0.9696%
// this could explain Dodd told the 17, 15, 1% formula from rounding.

I suspect they will calculate Independents a bit lower than G5 average. G5 wants to have some leverage over independents. But UConn, being in the Big East and with FOX might have some leverage. Oregon State and Washington State also can be a hassle with their Pac-12 bag, willingness to sue. So, I'll calculate independents as G5 average.

G5 = 8.625% = 0.135% per school
3x Independents = ~ 0.135% per school

But this is $1.75m average per school, and Independents only get something like $350K now. A 40% bump is only around $500K. This makes me think UConn, OSU and WSU can probably only expect somewhere between $500K and $1M. There really is no incentive for the G5 to agree to reduce their share for these schools. The G5 also has preferred a performance heavy component for their share. That might continue, where the top placing conference might get $2.25M per school and the bottom only $1.25M per school. This will be settled by the G5 themselves. They may only agree to set aside a maximum of say $2.2M of their share for Independents, keeping an average of $1.8M for each of their schools. In fact that's my WAG for the amount, about $730K for the three Independents.

The 6 indies got $1.89 million combined. And I think that included the 300k for meeting the graduation metrics. So basically, they got almost nothing other than the academic bonus. I suspect those academic bonuses go away. It will be nominal.

These percentages make sense

4.1 out of 14 = 29.2%

So this means the CFP expects the SEC and Big Ten to average about 4.1 teams each in a 14-team field every year. Of course in later rounds you expect that percentage to go even higher.

2.4 out of 14 = 17.1%

So the CFP expects the ACC to average about 2.4 teams in the 14-team playoff each year.

2.1 out of 14 = 15.0%

So the CFP expects the Big 12 to average about 2.1 teams in the 14-team playoff each year

1.4 out of 14 = 10.0%

So the CFP expects everybody else combined to average about 1.4 teams a year in the 14-team playoff.

(03-14-2024 03:34 PM)goofus Wrote:  These percentages make sense

4.1 out of 14 = 29.2%

So this means the CFP expects the SEC and Big Ten to average about 4.1 teams each in a 14-team field every year. Of course in later rounds you expect that percentage to go even higher.

2.4 out of 14 = 17.1%

So the CFP expects the ACC to average about 2.4 teams in the 14-team playoff each year.

2.1 out of 14 = 15.0%

So the CFP expects the Big 12 to average about 2.1 teams in the 14-team playoff each year

1.4 out of 14 = 10.0%

So the CFP expects everybody else combined to average about 1.4 teams a year in the 14-team playoff.

Over the CFP era, the Big 10 and SEC each average 4.2 teams. The Big 12 averages 2.2 and the ACC 2.0. Everyone else is 1.4.

If you look at the whole BCS era, the SEC does a little better than the Big 10, 4.5 to 3.9, but combined they average 4.2. The ACC does a little better than the Big 12, 2.2 to 2.0, but combined they average 2.1 same as the CFP era. And everyone else is 1.4.

https://twitter.com/RossDellenger/status...3626991903

- SEC 29%
- B1G 29%
- ACC 17.1%
- B12 14.7%
- G5 9%
- Notre Dame 1%
- UConn/OSU/WSU <1%

(03-14-2024 05:09 PM)Glenn360 Wrote:  https://twitter.com/RossDellenger/status...3626991903

- SEC 29%
- B1G 29%
- ACC 17.1%
- B12 14.7%
- G5 9%
- Notre Dame 1%
- UConn/OSU/WSU <1%

Don't see why the Big 12 would be ok with being less than the ACC. They have similar TV ratings, better attendance and would have had slightly more teams in the expanded playoffs over the CFP era.

ESPN:
https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...tribution/
"...The new revenue model will significantly benefit the Big Ten and SEC, launching them firmly ahead of the Big 12 and ACC moving forward. The new contract will pay the Big Ten and SEC 29% of the upcoming contract, sources tell Dodd, which works out to approximately $22 million per school. The ACC will receive 17% ($13-14 million per school) and the Big 12 will sit around 15% ($12 million per school). The numbers represent a raise across the board as all Power Five institutions receive approximately $5 million per school in the previous contract.

The ACC will receive a slightly higher payout in the next contract as the league has produced eight CFP semifinalists to only two in the continuing Big 12, according to ESPN. The proposed contract includes a "look-in" clause that allows the CFP to adjust payouts in 2028 based on performance, or if there is another round of realignment. ..."

(03-14-2024 06:35 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-14-2024 05:09 PM)Glenn360 Wrote:  https://twitter.com/RossDellenger/status...3626991903

- SEC 29%
- B1G 29%
- ACC 17.1%
- B12 14.7%
- G5 9%
- Notre Dame 1%
- UConn/OSU/WSU <1%

Don't see why the Big 12 would be ok with being less than the ACC. They have similar TV ratings, better attendance and would have had slightly more teams in the expanded playoffs over the CFP era.

Because they didn't look at "what ifs" they looked at "what happened", and the ACC had more appearances in the CFP by a count of 7-2. The SEC should be receiving a larger cut than the Big Ten.

Ironically, the best thing for the ACC going forward would be for Louisville or anybody but FSU or Clemson to win the league during this current contract.

(03-14-2024 06:35 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-14-2024 05:09 PM)Glenn360 Wrote:  https://twitter.com/RossDellenger/status...3626991903

- SEC 29%
- B1G 29%
- ACC 17.1%
- B12 14.7%
- G5 9%
- Notre Dame 1%
- UConn/OSU/WSU <1%

Don't see why the Big 12 would be ok with being less than the ACC. They have similar TV ratings, better attendance and would have had slightly more teams in the expanded playoffs over the CFP era.

The ACC expects to have an average of 2.4 teams make the playoffs every year. The Big 12 expects to have an average of 2.1 teams make the playoffs.

The ACC still has FSU and Clemson. If the ACC were to lose those 2, at that point the conferences would be considered equal at that point.

My question: can the conferences determine how the payout is distributed? That would be huge if the ACC could distribute their cut based on performance.

The ACC could make it quite lucrative to win the league:

13.5 x 17= 229.5m

- 50m for CCG winner and playoff rep = 179.5m

- 25m for runner-up = 154.5m

/ 15 = 10.3m

So a school loses a measly $3.2m if they don't finish in the top two, but if they win the crown they end up with a cool $50m bonus or $25m for the runner-up.

Fascinating that the Big 12 is accepting lower revenue than the ACC

SEC = 29% = 1.8125% per school
B1G = 29% = 1.6111% per school
ACC = 17.1% = 1.0059% per school
ND = 1% = 1.0000%
B12 = 14.7% = 0.91875% per school

That sums to 90.8% of the guaranteed revenue. "UConn/OSU/WSU < 1%", suggests something in the 8.5-8.8% range for G5, but all that to be settled by them. G5 gain is said to be a smaller raise (%), only incremental. G5 percentage is way down from the prior 15%, the money a little up.

How much of that $1.3B is needed for operations and overhead? The old model paid $4M to each NY6 participant and $6M to each semifinal participant, no extra for CCG, for a total of $56M in payouts. Even with 14, and upping payouts 40% (average of ~$6.6M) in line with revenue jump, I come up with about $92.6M in performance-based distributions. Overhead is an unknown, but it should not be in the multi tens of $millions.

Anyway, that smaller amount for the Big 12 goes a long way toward explaining Yormark's insistence upon a 2028 look-in. It seems the formula was derived from the past decade results for the current lineups of the ACC and Big 12, not an even split between conferences like the SEC and B1G devised for each other.

A lot of politics in this.

(03-14-2024 06:43 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-14-2024 06:35 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-14-2024 05:09 PM)Glenn360 Wrote:  https://twitter.com/RossDellenger/status...3626991903

- SEC 29%
- B1G 29%
- ACC 17.1%
- B12 14.7%
- G5 9%
- Notre Dame 1%
- UConn/OSU/WSU <1%

Don't see why the Big 12 would be ok with being less than the ACC. They have similar TV ratings, better attendance and would have had slightly more teams in the expanded playoffs over the CFP era.

Because they didn't look at "what ifs" they looked at "what happened", and the ACC had more appearances in the CFP by a count of 7-2. The SEC should be receiving a larger cut than the Big Ten.

Ironically, the best thing for the ACC going forward would be for Louisville or anybody but FSU or Clemson to win the league during this current contract.

The SEC had more appearances in the CFP than the Big 10, but similar NY6. Same $$.

The ACC had more appearances in the CFP than the Big 12, but similar (slightly fewer) NY6 appearances.

(03-14-2024 06:46 PM)esayem Wrote:  My question: can the conferences determine how the payout is distributed? That would be huge if the ACC could distribute their cut based on performance.

That is part of the "success initiative."

But the Big 10 and SEC have made sure none of that can catch FSU up to Big 10/SEC $$.

(03-14-2024 06:58 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Fascinating that the Big 12 is accepting lower revenue than the ACC

SEC = 29% = 1.8125% per school
B1G = 29% = 1.6111% per school
ACC = 17.1% = 1.0059% per school
ND = 1% = 1.0000%
B12 = 14.7% = 0.91875% per school

That sums to 90.8% of the guaranteed revenue. "UConn/OSU/WSU < 1%", suggests something in the 8.5-8.8% range for G5, but all that to be settled by them. G5 gain is said to be a smaller raise (%), only incremental. G5 percentage is way down from the prior 15%, the money a little up.

How much of that $1.3B is needed for operations and overhead? The old model paid $4M to each NY6 participant and $6M to each semifinal participant, no extra for CCG, for a total of $56M in payouts. Even with 14, and upping payouts 40% (average of ~$6.6M) in line with revenue jump, I come up with about $92.6M in performance-based distributions. Overhead is an unknown, but it should not be in the multi tens of $millions.

Anyway, that smaller amount for the Big 12 goes a long way toward explaining Yormark's insistence upon a 2028 look-in. It seems the formula was derived from the past decade results for the current lineups of the ACC and Big 12, not an even split between conferences like the SEC and B1G devised for each other.

A lot of politics in this.

And they were heavily weighted to who made the 4 team invitational as opposed to who would be in the 12 or 14 team tourney. I guess they were assuming those 4 would win the vast majority of time (not unreasonable, but it is a "what if" and not consistent with anything else they were doing-else the SEC would get 40%).

In 2023 they paid $2.89 million for each game for travel expenses. I would think that would still continue.

(03-14-2024 07:33 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-14-2024 06:46 PM)esayem Wrote:  My question: can the conferences determine how the payout is distributed? That would be huge if the ACC could distribute their cut based on performance.

That is part of the "success initiative."

But the Big 10 and SEC have made sure none of that can catch FSU up to Big 10/SEC $$.

Well, according to FSU, the competition in the ACC is subpar so they should win the crown every season. Based on my formula, that would put them ahead of Notre Dame.

(03-14-2024 07:38 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-14-2024 07:33 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-14-2024 06:46 PM)esayem Wrote:  My question: can the conferences determine how the payout is distributed? That would be huge if the ACC could distribute their cut based on performance.

That is part of the "success initiative."

But the Big 10 and SEC have made sure none of that can catch FSU up to Big 10/SEC $$.

Well, according to FSU, the competition in the ACC is subpar so they should win the crown every season. Based on my formula, that would put them ahead of Notre Dame.

But are they ahead of South Carolina, Purdue and Mississippi St.?

(03-14-2024 07:40 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-14-2024 07:38 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-14-2024 07:33 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-14-2024 06:46 PM)esayem Wrote:  My question: can the conferences determine how the payout is distributed? That would be huge if the ACC could distribute their cut based on performance.

That is part of the "success initiative."

But the Big 10 and SEC have made sure none of that can catch FSU up to Big 10/SEC $$.

Well, according to FSU, the competition in the ACC is subpar so they should win the crown every season. Based on my formula, that would put them ahead of Notre Dame.

But are they ahead of South Carolina, Purdue and Mississippi St.?

No, but they haven't been the last 10 years or so and they're a far better program to this day.