(03-16-2024 04:10 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(03-16-2024 03:13 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  

(03-16-2024 06:34 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(03-15-2024 07:05 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  If VT ends up in "Big East 2.0" I'll still watch that instead of the so-called P2.
Even if VT joins one of the P2, I'll only watch VT games.

I do that now.
If Louisville ain't playing, I ain't watching.

Certainly not going to waste my time watching boring Big Ten games or SEC games where the team with the best record always seems to win.

Im that way too, although occasionally, I may watch some other intriguing ACC game, that involves Pitt or BC or Louisville, Miami and Duke. Sometimes. Outside of Miami, I may watch those other teams to see if its somehow possible for them and the team they are playing both lose.

Maybe it's my sickness, but I watch as many ACC football games as I can (and in the NCAA Tournament I watch all the ACC teams if I can, too). I rarely almost never watch an SEC or B1G or XII game not involving an ACC opponent.

I'm pretty close to that. I don't watch as many ACC football games 'as I can' but I do watch them over any other conference. One of the better perks with being in the ACC is that you get to root for other conference teams OOC, in the NCAA tourney and soon the CFP tourney. I don't miss an ACC NCAA tournament game. The ACCT on the other hand, I've started just watching VT and the quarter, semi and finals. I'm looking forward to rooting for NCSU today eventhough they're probably plenty tired.

(03-13-2024 07:46 AM)LaBradfordsTWill Wrote:  

(03-12-2024 10:12 AM)ken d Wrote:  I could envision the possibility that the SEC decides to go big in hoops in a big way, believing that their football is already strong enough. I do think they would accept Florida State to solidify their dominance in the state of Florida. What if they then add hoops to get to 20 members, taking UNC, Duke and Kansas to join Kentucky as blue blood heaven?

The Big Ten could conceivably match them at 20 by rescuing Stanford and Cal, establishing a dominant west coast presence and easing travel for their legacy schools.

What then? I could imagine a football alliance with 32 teams in four distinct regional divisions, which then act as separate conferences for all other sports. This behemoth would be further united under the banner of a single network, the ACCN, which already exists. Only in this scenario, it encompasses 22 states which together contain about 70% of the US population. One media contact to cover all 32 schools.

The four divisions/Olympic sports conferences are:

Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech, NC State, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Virginia, USF
Louisville, West Virginia, Pitt, UCF, Memphis, Cincinnati, Boston College, Syracuse
Oklahoma St, TCU, Kansas St, Baylor, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Houston, SMU
Utah, Arizona St, Washington St, BYU, Arizona, Oregon St, San Diego St, Colorado

The champ of each of these divisions qualify for a 16 team CFP, in which the SEC and B1G have 4 AQ each, and there are 4 at-large spots to give independent ND a path to the championship.

This would be my dream scenario for Louisville. We would get to play the teams we love to hate the most on a regular basis.

No offense intended for anyone but for me, this would be one of my nightmare scenarios for Clemson.

(03-12-2024 07:44 PM)Garrettabc Wrote:  Moving Duke, UVA and UNC to the B1G would actually probably be equally attractive from a basketball standpoint and enhances Maryland's place in the B1G with some natural and traditional rivals. A 21 member B1G would look thusly:

USC, UCLA, Oregon, UW, Neb, Iowa, Minni

OSU, UM, MSU, Wisc, Illi, NW, Indi

PSU, RU, Purdue, UMd, Duke, UVA, UNC

GROSSSSSSSSS dude. Please staaaaahp

(03-16-2024 06:27 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Frankly I have some mixed feelings about posting in this thread. But there are some fundamental things which I feel will determine the nature and direction of the P2.

The Big 10 stands at 18 and their last 4 additions held a valuation 600 million less than those of Texas and Oklahoma. The schools left to select from have a pecking order in valuation (their abilities to impact the indirectly the economies around them). This data point is very informative for realignment because it is a direct indicator of the support of a school within their own market reach.

We all understand what a blue blood is and the very nature of the strength of their brands are easy to grasp.

We understand revenue generation and attendance as indicators of a school's ability to help other future conference mates more money. But the ability to drive business outside of the school's athletic department itself is what builds synergy with conference mates.

Notre Dame's last posted cumulative value was .928 billion.
Kansas has one of .527 billion
FSU at .390 billion.
Clemson at .380 billion.

And everyone else is below that with various aspects standing out in their desirability.

Ever wonder how the AAU minded Big 10 could have rumors constantly floating rumors about taking Notre Dame, Clemson and FSU? Well there it is. Even if the Big 10 added Notre Dame they will still trail the SEC by well over 2 billion in their valuation total.

Every wonder why I speak often about Kansas? Kansas has synergy with Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas and Texas A&M and could easily build it with Arkansas.

If the Big 10 takes Notre Dame to keep its advantage all the SEC needs to do is to take Kansas, and either of FSU or Clemson. North Carolina and Virginia or Virginia Tech are market additions and those count too in that the two states are only 2 million shy of equaling holding the value of Florida as a state.

Well, if the SEC does pick up North Carolina and Virginia, with N.C. State and Virginia Tech ESPN keeps total control of the ad markets for 20 million people. So I don't dismiss this out of hand, and rather think it could have legs.

Well, if those 4 are taken to assuage ESPN's interests, and the SEC's concerns are then assuaged with the additions of Clemson, Florida State, Kansas, and perhaps Georgia Tech to maintain total control in Atlanta for the SEC and ESPN. Then I think you will be getting a foreshadowing of the kind of thinking which is going into these decisions.

The Big 10 wants a bigger slice of Florida than just Miami, that only increases ESPN's and the SEC's desire for 1 of those two Florida schools and FSU delivers a higher % of the total Florida viewers, and Miami delivers an area where the SEC reach has been weak.

The SEC already locks down the rest. It would see Kansas as a favor to ESPN, and a nod to a solid division being built in a new SEC West. The SEC basketball is improving but add some brand names to Kentucky and voila they really increase the value of their Winter time sports offering. Clemson and FSU lock down the football branding and the Southeastern emphasis.

Meanwhile up North they will be eyeing Notre Dame and whatever they can do to clinch that relationship. Stanford makes sense in that context. That leaves them 4 to play with and Miami is AAU is in a nice DMA and is easily accessed via air travel. Where do they go from there? They could make a play for Georgia Tech which could leave the SEC looking West again. Or the Big 10 could go for Arizona to shore up a Western 6 and increase market share.

In other words, ESPN/SEC desires and FOX/Big 10 desires will determine the coming size of the Super 2. And the size of the Super 2 will directly impact the union of the rest in a third conference.

The size also will impact the selections made by the Big 10 and SEC.

If the move is to 20 Miami and Notre Dame or Stanford and Notre Dame could end it for them.

Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia would do the same for the SEC.

In that world the discussion in this thread is relevant.

But if both move to 24 (I think 22 would be a bit awkward for a return to divisions for the sake of travel), then it radically alters everything you've discussed here.

I think you should look at who you would take and how you would organize it if the SEC and Big 10 stop at 20, and do a contingent plan for if the stop at 24.

I struggle to understand how the SEC increasing its membership by a third will increase its overall value at this point. I mean I'll play with FSU and Clemson because synergistically they would provided amazing football content with current membership. But UVa football in the SEC would be an absolute drag. Culturally they don't fit in the SEC either. Carolina sort of has two camps, some who absolutely would prefer the SEC, and then some Yankee admins who might be drawn to the B18. What both have is absolute synergy with one another and VaTech, State, Dook, Wake, Clemson, and GaTech.

If there are 14 schools out there that increase the SEC and B18's value, then they should be making a lot more than they are currently.

(03-17-2024 02:07 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-16-2024 06:27 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Frankly I have some mixed feelings about posting in this thread. But there are some fundamental things which I feel will determine the nature and direction of the P2.

The Big 10 stands at 18 and their last 4 additions held a valuation 600 million less than those of Texas and Oklahoma. The schools left to select from have a pecking order in valuation (their abilities to impact the indirectly the economies around them). This data point is very informative for realignment because it is a direct indicator of the support of a school within their own market reach.

We all understand what a blue blood is and the very nature of the strength of their brands are easy to grasp.

We understand revenue generation and attendance as indicators of a school's ability to help other future conference mates more money. But the ability to drive business outside of the school's athletic department itself is what builds synergy with conference mates.

Notre Dame's last posted cumulative value was .928 billion.
Kansas has one of .527 billion
FSU at .390 billion.
Clemson at .380 billion.

And everyone else is below that with various aspects standing out in their desirability.

Ever wonder how the AAU minded Big 10 could have rumors constantly floating rumors about taking Notre Dame, Clemson and FSU? Well there it is. Even if the Big 10 added Notre Dame they will still trail the SEC by well over 2 billion in their valuation total.

Every wonder why I speak often about Kansas? Kansas has synergy with Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas and Texas A&M and could easily build it with Arkansas.

If the Big 10 takes Notre Dame to keep its advantage all the SEC needs to do is to take Kansas, and either of FSU or Clemson. North Carolina and Virginia or Virginia Tech are market additions and those count too in that the two states are only 2 million shy of equaling holding the value of Florida as a state.

Well, if the SEC does pick up North Carolina and Virginia, with N.C. State and Virginia Tech ESPN keeps total control of the ad markets for 20 million people. So I don't dismiss this out of hand, and rather think it could have legs.

Well, if those 4 are taken to assuage ESPN's interests, and the SEC's concerns are then assuaged with the additions of Clemson, Florida State, Kansas, and perhaps Georgia Tech to maintain total control in Atlanta for the SEC and ESPN. Then I think you will be getting a foreshadowing of the kind of thinking which is going into these decisions.

The Big 10 wants a bigger slice of Florida than just Miami, that only increases ESPN's and the SEC's desire for 1 of those two Florida schools and FSU delivers a higher % of the total Florida viewers, and Miami delivers an area where the SEC reach has been weak.

The SEC already locks down the rest. It would see Kansas as a favor to ESPN, and a nod to a solid division being built in a new SEC West. The SEC basketball is improving but add some brand names to Kentucky and voila they really increase the value of their Winter time sports offering. Clemson and FSU lock down the football branding and the Southeastern emphasis.

Meanwhile up North they will be eyeing Notre Dame and whatever they can do to clinch that relationship. Stanford makes sense in that context. That leaves them 4 to play with and Miami is AAU is in a nice DMA and is easily accessed via air travel. Where do they go from there? They could make a play for Georgia Tech which could leave the SEC looking West again. Or the Big 10 could go for Arizona to shore up a Western 6 and increase market share.

In other words, ESPN/SEC desires and FOX/Big 10 desires will determine the coming size of the Super 2. And the size of the Super 2 will directly impact the union of the rest in a third conference.

The size also will impact the selections made by the Big 10 and SEC.

If the move is to 20 Miami and Notre Dame or Stanford and Notre Dame could end it for them.

Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia would do the same for the SEC.

In that world the discussion in this thread is relevant.

But if both move to 24 (I think 22 would be a bit awkward for a return to divisions for the sake of travel), then it radically alters everything you've discussed here.

I think you should look at who you would take and how you would organize it if the SEC and Big 10 stop at 20, and do a contingent plan for if the stop at 24.

I struggle to understand how the SEC increasing its membership by a third will increase its overall value at this point. I mean I'll play with FSU and Clemson because synergistically they would provided amazing football content with current membership. But UVa football in the SEC would be an absolute drag. Culturally they don't fit in the SEC either. Carolina sort of has two camps, some who absolutely would prefer the SEC, and then some Yankee admins who might be drawn to the B18. What both have is absolute synergy with one another and VaTech, State, Dook, Wake, Clemson, and GaTech.

If there are 14 schools out there that increase the SEC and B18's value, then they should be making a lot more than they are currently.

Notre Dame, Florida State, Clemson, Miami, possibly Arizona State for the Big 10, can all still increase value with football for the right S2 or both.

North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado are market enhancements, as are the Arizona schools, and Utah. Any Florida school enhances markets for the Big 10.

Basketball will be treated the same as football because of the court rulings which equally apply. So, for hoops: Arizona, Duke, Kansas, North Carolina, Syracuse and Virginia add value.

In short there are half a dozen to 8 schools which add value. Not all value is just Football brand value.

The question isn't are there 14 schools which add value to the SEC and Big 10. The question is how many conference games does FOX and ESPN require to fulfill their time slots because if the upper tier breaks away that's all they will air. They will stream the others.

ABC contractually can choose to offer as many as 3 games on a Saturday, they definitely will have 2 slots. ESPN, ESPN2 & ESPN 4 all show at least 3 games each on a Saturday and the SECN does another 2. Friday night games are going to be an offering. There's another game on the weekend. That's 14. If we wind up having a closed conference schedule in the upper tier, and that's more likely than not because the investing network(s) don't have to split revenue if it is contained within the conference in which they hold the rights, then that means 14 conference games will be required for each of the ESPN and FOX (CBS/NBC) and that's still with a bye week in each conference for every school.

This is why I've been saying that inventory requirements and pro rata to obtain them so that the existing conference members are not losing money, will lead to larger conferences than people realize or can comprehend. 24 is quite possible, 28 is conceivable, and 32 isn't impossible. I still think though that 32 isn't the sweet spot for the networks.

(03-17-2024 02:07 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-16-2024 06:27 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Frankly I have some mixed feelings about posting in this thread. But there are some fundamental things which I feel will determine the nature and direction of the P2.

The Big 10 stands at 18 and their last 4 additions held a valuation 600 million less than those of Texas and Oklahoma. The schools left to select from have a pecking order in valuation (their abilities to impact the indirectly the economies around them). This data point is very informative for realignment because it is a direct indicator of the support of a school within their own market reach.

We all understand what a blue blood is and the very nature of the strength of their brands are easy to grasp.

We understand revenue generation and attendance as indicators of a school's ability to help other future conference mates more money. But the ability to drive business outside of the school's athletic department itself is what builds synergy with conference mates.

Notre Dame's last posted cumulative value was .928 billion.
Kansas has one of .527 billion
FSU at .390 billion.
Clemson at .380 billion.

And everyone else is below that with various aspects standing out in their desirability.

Ever wonder how the AAU minded Big 10 could have rumors constantly floating rumors about taking Notre Dame, Clemson and FSU? Well there it is. Even if the Big 10 added Notre Dame they will still trail the SEC by well over 2 billion in their valuation total.

Every wonder why I speak often about Kansas? Kansas has synergy with Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas and Texas A&M and could easily build it with Arkansas.

If the Big 10 takes Notre Dame to keep its advantage all the SEC needs to do is to take Kansas, and either of FSU or Clemson. North Carolina and Virginia or Virginia Tech are market additions and those count too in that the two states are only 2 million shy of equaling holding the value of Florida as a state.

Well, if the SEC does pick up North Carolina and Virginia, with N.C. State and Virginia Tech ESPN keeps total control of the ad markets for 20 million people. So I don't dismiss this out of hand, and rather think it could have legs.

Well, if those 4 are taken to assuage ESPN's interests, and the SEC's concerns are then assuaged with the additions of Clemson, Florida State, Kansas, and perhaps Georgia Tech to maintain total control in Atlanta for the SEC and ESPN. Then I think you will be getting a foreshadowing of the kind of thinking which is going into these decisions.

The Big 10 wants a bigger slice of Florida than just Miami, that only increases ESPN's and the SEC's desire for 1 of those two Florida schools and FSU delivers a higher % of the total Florida viewers, and Miami delivers an area where the SEC reach has been weak.

The SEC already locks down the rest. It would see Kansas as a favor to ESPN, and a nod to a solid division being built in a new SEC West. The SEC basketball is improving but add some brand names to Kentucky and voila they really increase the value of their Winter time sports offering. Clemson and FSU lock down the football branding and the Southeastern emphasis.

Meanwhile up North they will be eyeing Notre Dame and whatever they can do to clinch that relationship. Stanford makes sense in that context. That leaves them 4 to play with and Miami is AAU is in a nice DMA and is easily accessed via air travel. Where do they go from there? They could make a play for Georgia Tech which could leave the SEC looking West again. Or the Big 10 could go for Arizona to shore up a Western 6 and increase market share.

In other words, ESPN/SEC desires and FOX/Big 10 desires will determine the coming size of the Super 2. And the size of the Super 2 will directly impact the union of the rest in a third conference.

The size also will impact the selections made by the Big 10 and SEC.

If the move is to 20 Miami and Notre Dame or Stanford and Notre Dame could end it for them.

Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia would do the same for the SEC.

In that world the discussion in this thread is relevant.

But if both move to 24 (I think 22 would be a bit awkward for a return to divisions for the sake of travel), then it radically alters everything you've discussed here.

I think you should look at who you would take and how you would organize it if the SEC and Big 10 stop at 20, and do a contingent plan for if the stop at 24.

I struggle to understand how the SEC increasing its membership by a third will increase its overall value at this point. I mean I'll play with FSU and Clemson because synergistically they would provided amazing football content with current membership. But UVa football in the SEC would be an absolute drag. Culturally they don't fit in the SEC either. Carolina sort of has two camps, some who absolutely would prefer the SEC, and then some Yankee admins who might be drawn to the B18. What both have is absolute synergy with one another and VaTech, State, Dook, Wake, Clemson, and GaTech.

If there are 14 schools out there that increase the SEC and B18's value, then they should be making a lot more than they are currently.

A bigger gang can make for more successful pillaging.

(03-16-2024 12:51 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(03-15-2024 08:05 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  The future is here! We are in that world currently P2-M2-G5

New CFP Payouts starting in 2026 Per Yahoo
SEC: 23.5M per school
BIG: 20.9M per School
ACC: 13M per school
ND: 13M
Big12: 12.1M per school
G5: 1.8M per school

B10/SEC is getting 29% each
ACC is getting 17.7%
B12 is getting 14.3%
G5 is getting 9%
ND is getting 1%

Yep. It's official now.

Conferences may be locked in to their media-ordained castes, but individual schools have more room to move. If there's a line your alma mater needs to get on the right side of, take a lesson from the SMU Mustangs. Do it now.

Awesome $750M x 4

(03-17-2024 02:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-17-2024 02:07 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-16-2024 06:27 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Frankly I have some mixed feelings about posting in this thread. But there are some fundamental things which I feel will determine the nature and direction of the P2.

The Big 10 stands at 18 and their last 4 additions held a valuation 600 million less than those of Texas and Oklahoma. The schools left to select from have a pecking order in valuation (their abilities to impact the indirectly the economies around them). This data point is very informative for realignment because it is a direct indicator of the support of a school within their own market reach.

We all understand what a blue blood is and the very nature of the strength of their brands are easy to grasp.

We understand revenue generation and attendance as indicators of a school's ability to help other future conference mates more money. But the ability to drive business outside of the school's athletic department itself is what builds synergy with conference mates.

Notre Dame's last posted cumulative value was .928 billion.
Kansas has one of .527 billion
FSU at .390 billion.
Clemson at .380 billion.

And everyone else is below that with various aspects standing out in their desirability.

Ever wonder how the AAU minded Big 10 could have rumors constantly floating rumors about taking Notre Dame, Clemson and FSU? Well there it is. Even if the Big 10 added Notre Dame they will still trail the SEC by well over 2 billion in their valuation total.

Every wonder why I speak often about Kansas? Kansas has synergy with Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas and Texas A&M and could easily build it with Arkansas.

If the Big 10 takes Notre Dame to keep its advantage all the SEC needs to do is to take Kansas, and either of FSU or Clemson. North Carolina and Virginia or Virginia Tech are market additions and those count too in that the two states are only 2 million shy of equaling holding the value of Florida as a state.

Well, if the SEC does pick up North Carolina and Virginia, with N.C. State and Virginia Tech ESPN keeps total control of the ad markets for 20 million people. So I don't dismiss this out of hand, and rather think it could have legs.

Well, if those 4 are taken to assuage ESPN's interests, and the SEC's concerns are then assuaged with the additions of Clemson, Florida State, Kansas, and perhaps Georgia Tech to maintain total control in Atlanta for the SEC and ESPN. Then I think you will be getting a foreshadowing of the kind of thinking which is going into these decisions.

The Big 10 wants a bigger slice of Florida than just Miami, that only increases ESPN's and the SEC's desire for 1 of those two Florida schools and FSU delivers a higher % of the total Florida viewers, and Miami delivers an area where the SEC reach has been weak.

The SEC already locks down the rest. It would see Kansas as a favor to ESPN, and a nod to a solid division being built in a new SEC West. The SEC basketball is improving but add some brand names to Kentucky and voila they really increase the value of their Winter time sports offering. Clemson and FSU lock down the football branding and the Southeastern emphasis.

Meanwhile up North they will be eyeing Notre Dame and whatever they can do to clinch that relationship. Stanford makes sense in that context. That leaves them 4 to play with and Miami is AAU is in a nice DMA and is easily accessed via air travel. Where do they go from there? They could make a play for Georgia Tech which could leave the SEC looking West again. Or the Big 10 could go for Arizona to shore up a Western 6 and increase market share.

In other words, ESPN/SEC desires and FOX/Big 10 desires will determine the coming size of the Super 2. And the size of the Super 2 will directly impact the union of the rest in a third conference.

The size also will impact the selections made by the Big 10 and SEC.

If the move is to 20 Miami and Notre Dame or Stanford and Notre Dame could end it for them.

Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia would do the same for the SEC.

In that world the discussion in this thread is relevant.

But if both move to 24 (I think 22 would be a bit awkward for a return to divisions for the sake of travel), then it radically alters everything you've discussed here.

I think you should look at who you would take and how you would organize it if the SEC and Big 10 stop at 20, and do a contingent plan for if the stop at 24.

I struggle to understand how the SEC increasing its membership by a third will increase its overall value at this point. I mean I'll play with FSU and Clemson because synergistically they would provided amazing football content with current membership. But UVa football in the SEC would be an absolute drag. Culturally they don't fit in the SEC either. Carolina sort of has two camps, some who absolutely would prefer the SEC, and then some Yankee admins who might be drawn to the B18. What both have is absolute synergy with one another and VaTech, State, Dook, Wake, Clemson, and GaTech.

If there are 14 schools out there that increase the SEC and B18's value, then they should be making a lot more than they are currently.

Notre Dame, Florida State, Clemson, Miami, possibly Arizona State for the Big 10, can all still increase value with football for the right S2 or both.

North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado are market enhancements, as are the Arizona schools, and Utah. Any Florida school enhances markets for the Big 10.

Basketball will be treated the same as football because of the court rulings which equally apply. So, for hoops: Arizona, Duke, Kansas, North Carolina, Syracuse and Virginia add value.

In short there are half a dozen to 8 schools which add value. Not all value is just Football brand value.

The question isn't are there 14 schools which add value to the SEC and Big 10. The question is how many conference games does FOX and ESPN require to fulfill their time slots because if the upper tier breaks away that's all they will air. They will stream the others.

ABC contractually can choose to offer as many as 3 games on a Saturday, they definitely will have 2 slots. ESPN, ESPN2 & ESPN 4 all show at least 3 games each on a Saturday and the SECN does another 2. Friday night games are going to be an offering. There's another game on the weekend. That's 14. If we wind up having a closed conference schedule in the upper tier, and that's more likely than not because the investing network(s) don't have to split revenue if it is contained within the conference in which they hold the rights, then that means 14 conference games will be required for each of the ESPN and FOX (CBS/NBC) and that's still with a bye week in each conference for every school.

This is why I've been saying that inventory requirements and pro rata to obtain them so that the existing conference members are not losing money, will lead to larger conferences than people realize or can comprehend. 24 is quite possible, 28 is conceivable, and 32 isn't impossible. I still think though that 32 isn't the sweet spot for the networks.

24 makes it pretty tidy:
SEC Southwest: Kansas, Missouri, OU, Texas, TAMU, Arkansas
SEC South: LSU, Ole Miss, Miss State, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Auburn
SEC Southeast: Florida, FSU, U[sic]GA, GT, Clemson, South Carolina
SEC Appalachian: Tennessee, Kentucky, Virginia, Virginia Tech, UNC, NC State

To 28: +Duke(SE), UofL(SW), Miami (SE, FSU to S), WV (App)
To 28 all but FB: WF, Duke, Tulane, Rice

Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using CSNbbs mobile app

(03-17-2024 07:44 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(03-17-2024 02:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-17-2024 02:07 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-16-2024 06:27 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Frankly I have some mixed feelings about posting in this thread. But there are some fundamental things which I feel will determine the nature and direction of the P2.

The Big 10 stands at 18 and their last 4 additions held a valuation 600 million less than those of Texas and Oklahoma. The schools left to select from have a pecking order in valuation (their abilities to impact the indirectly the economies around them). This data point is very informative for realignment because it is a direct indicator of the support of a school within their own market reach.

We all understand what a blue blood is and the very nature of the strength of their brands are easy to grasp.

We understand revenue generation and attendance as indicators of a school's ability to help other future conference mates more money. But the ability to drive business outside of the school's athletic department itself is what builds synergy with conference mates.

Notre Dame's last posted cumulative value was .928 billion.
Kansas has one of .527 billion
FSU at .390 billion.
Clemson at .380 billion.

And everyone else is below that with various aspects standing out in their desirability.

Ever wonder how the AAU minded Big 10 could have rumors constantly floating rumors about taking Notre Dame, Clemson and FSU? Well there it is. Even if the Big 10 added Notre Dame they will still trail the SEC by well over 2 billion in their valuation total.

Every wonder why I speak often about Kansas? Kansas has synergy with Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas and Texas A&M and could easily build it with Arkansas.

If the Big 10 takes Notre Dame to keep its advantage all the SEC needs to do is to take Kansas, and either of FSU or Clemson. North Carolina and Virginia or Virginia Tech are market additions and those count too in that the two states are only 2 million shy of equaling holding the value of Florida as a state.

Well, if the SEC does pick up North Carolina and Virginia, with N.C. State and Virginia Tech ESPN keeps total control of the ad markets for 20 million people. So I don't dismiss this out of hand, and rather think it could have legs.

Well, if those 4 are taken to assuage ESPN's interests, and the SEC's concerns are then assuaged with the additions of Clemson, Florida State, Kansas, and perhaps Georgia Tech to maintain total control in Atlanta for the SEC and ESPN. Then I think you will be getting a foreshadowing of the kind of thinking which is going into these decisions.

The Big 10 wants a bigger slice of Florida than just Miami, that only increases ESPN's and the SEC's desire for 1 of those two Florida schools and FSU delivers a higher % of the total Florida viewers, and Miami delivers an area where the SEC reach has been weak.

The SEC already locks down the rest. It would see Kansas as a favor to ESPN, and a nod to a solid division being built in a new SEC West. The SEC basketball is improving but add some brand names to Kentucky and voila they really increase the value of their Winter time sports offering. Clemson and FSU lock down the football branding and the Southeastern emphasis.

Meanwhile up North they will be eyeing Notre Dame and whatever they can do to clinch that relationship. Stanford makes sense in that context. That leaves them 4 to play with and Miami is AAU is in a nice DMA and is easily accessed via air travel. Where do they go from there? They could make a play for Georgia Tech which could leave the SEC looking West again. Or the Big 10 could go for Arizona to shore up a Western 6 and increase market share.

In other words, ESPN/SEC desires and FOX/Big 10 desires will determine the coming size of the Super 2. And the size of the Super 2 will directly impact the union of the rest in a third conference.

The size also will impact the selections made by the Big 10 and SEC.

If the move is to 20 Miami and Notre Dame or Stanford and Notre Dame could end it for them.

Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia would do the same for the SEC.

In that world the discussion in this thread is relevant.

But if both move to 24 (I think 22 would be a bit awkward for a return to divisions for the sake of travel), then it radically alters everything you've discussed here.

I think you should look at who you would take and how you would organize it if the SEC and Big 10 stop at 20, and do a contingent plan for if the stop at 24.

I struggle to understand how the SEC increasing its membership by a third will increase its overall value at this point. I mean I'll play with FSU and Clemson because synergistically they would provided amazing football content with current membership. But UVa football in the SEC would be an absolute drag. Culturally they don't fit in the SEC either. Carolina sort of has two camps, some who absolutely would prefer the SEC, and then some Yankee admins who might be drawn to the B18. What both have is absolute synergy with one another and VaTech, State, Dook, Wake, Clemson, and GaTech.

If there are 14 schools out there that increase the SEC and B18's value, then they should be making a lot more than they are currently.

Notre Dame, Florida State, Clemson, Miami, possibly Arizona State for the Big 10, can all still increase value with football for the right S2 or both.

North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado are market enhancements, as are the Arizona schools, and Utah. Any Florida school enhances markets for the Big 10.

Basketball will be treated the same as football because of the court rulings which equally apply. So, for hoops: Arizona, Duke, Kansas, North Carolina, Syracuse and Virginia add value.

In short there are half a dozen to 8 schools which add value. Not all value is just Football brand value.

The question isn't are there 14 schools which add value to the SEC and Big 10. The question is how many conference games does FOX and ESPN require to fulfill their time slots because if the upper tier breaks away that's all they will air. They will stream the others.

ABC contractually can choose to offer as many as 3 games on a Saturday, they definitely will have 2 slots. ESPN, ESPN2 & ESPN 4 all show at least 3 games each on a Saturday and the SECN does another 2. Friday night games are going to be an offering. There's another game on the weekend. That's 14. If we wind up having a closed conference schedule in the upper tier, and that's more likely than not because the investing network(s) don't have to split revenue if it is contained within the conference in which they hold the rights, then that means 14 conference games will be required for each of the ESPN and FOX (CBS/NBC) and that's still with a bye week in each conference for every school.

This is why I've been saying that inventory requirements and pro rata to obtain them so that the existing conference members are not losing money, will lead to larger conferences than people realize or can comprehend. 24 is quite possible, 28 is conceivable, and 32 isn't impossible. I still think though that 32 isn't the sweet spot for the networks.

24 makes it pretty tidy:
SEC Southwest: Kansas, Missouri, OU, Texas, TAMU, Arkansas
SEC South: LSU, Ole Miss, Miss State, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Auburn
SEC Southeast: Florida, FSU, U[sic]GA, GT, Clemson, South Carolina
SEC Appalachian: Tennessee, Kentucky, Virginia, Virginia Tech, UNC, NC State

To 28: +Duke(SE), UofL(SW), Miami (SE, FSU to S), WV (App)
To 28 all but FB: WF, Duke, Tulane, Rice

Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using CSNbbs mobile app

I like the concept. I would make one change which would re-arrange things a tad.

Let's take it from the bottom:

To 28 plus 4 for all but FB: Duke, Tulane, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest

To 28 for all sports:

SW: Arkansas, Baylor, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

South: Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, South Florida

Southeast: Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State, South Carolina

Appalachian: Kentucky, Louisville, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, West Virginia

Now you have 28 full members. 4 All but football members.

Big 10:

NE: Indiana, Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, Syracuse

MNW: Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Wisconsin

Plains: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Iowa, Iowa State, Nebraska, T.C.U.

West: California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Utah, Washington

All but football: Boston College, Connecticut, Gonzaga, Villanova

If either the B1G or the SEC go beyond their current numbers (sans Notre Dame), their numbers are compromised.

Texas and Oklahoma tilted the balance to the SEC. The B1G would have to add multiple schools just to reach the SEC level. Then the question to ask is "why expand at all"?

Getting more per broadcast only covers the increased overhead (which will be ongoing and ever increasing).

Two P2 conferences of 24 each will kill the Goose.

(03-18-2024 08:27 AM)XLance Wrote:  If either the B1G or the SEC go beyond their current numbers (sans Notre Dame), their numbers are compromised.

Texas and Oklahoma tilted the balance to the SEC. The B1G would have to add multiple schools just to reach the SEC level. Then the question to ask is "why expand at all"?

Getting more per broadcast only covers the increased overhead (which will be ongoing and ever increasing).

Two P2 conferences of 24 each will kill the Goose.

Yeah, I agree here. The Big Ten is still hoping UO and UW will appraise.

Plus, ESPN would be stupid to move 6-8 ACC teams to the SEC and overpay them. No way that works out in their favor because they will be playing each other more often than marquee names like Alabama and LSU.

The NCAA basketball tournament is about to start and all we can discuss are these fantasies.

(03-18-2024 10:13 AM)Hallcity Wrote:  The NCAA basketball tournament is about to start and all we can discuss are these fantasies.

I'd say that the obliteration of the PAC 12, and the decapitation of the Big 12, and the desire of FSU to bolt are realities. People can speculate on who goes where, but what's happening is happening. And the basketball tournament is a nice distraction.

(03-18-2024 12:39 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-18-2024 10:13 AM)Hallcity Wrote:  The NCAA basketball tournament is about to start and all we can discuss are these fantasies.

I'd say that the obliteration of the PAC 12, and the decapitation of the Big 12, and the desire of FSU to bolt are realities. People can speculate on who goes where, but what's happening is happening. And the basketball tournament is a nice distraction.

Why does it matter?

(03-17-2024 08:36 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-17-2024 07:44 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(03-17-2024 02:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-17-2024 02:07 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-16-2024 06:27 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Frankly I have some mixed feelings about posting in this thread. But there are some fundamental things which I feel will determine the nature and direction of the P2.

The Big 10 stands at 18 and their last 4 additions held a valuation 600 million less than those of Texas and Oklahoma. The schools left to select from have a pecking order in valuation (their abilities to impact the indirectly the economies around them). This data point is very informative for realignment because it is a direct indicator of the support of a school within their own market reach.

We all understand what a blue blood is and the very nature of the strength of their brands are easy to grasp.

We understand revenue generation and attendance as indicators of a school's ability to help other future conference mates more money. But the ability to drive business outside of the school's athletic department itself is what builds synergy with conference mates.

Notre Dame's last posted cumulative value was .928 billion.
Kansas has one of .527 billion
FSU at .390 billion.
Clemson at .380 billion.

And everyone else is below that with various aspects standing out in their desirability.

Ever wonder how the AAU minded Big 10 could have rumors constantly floating rumors about taking Notre Dame, Clemson and FSU? Well there it is. Even if the Big 10 added Notre Dame they will still trail the SEC by well over 2 billion in their valuation total.

Every wonder why I speak often about Kansas? Kansas has synergy with Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas and Texas A&M and could easily build it with Arkansas.

If the Big 10 takes Notre Dame to keep its advantage all the SEC needs to do is to take Kansas, and either of FSU or Clemson. North Carolina and Virginia or Virginia Tech are market additions and those count too in that the two states are only 2 million shy of equaling holding the value of Florida as a state.

Well, if the SEC does pick up North Carolina and Virginia, with N.C. State and Virginia Tech ESPN keeps total control of the ad markets for 20 million people. So I don't dismiss this out of hand, and rather think it could have legs.

Well, if those 4 are taken to assuage ESPN's interests, and the SEC's concerns are then assuaged with the additions of Clemson, Florida State, Kansas, and perhaps Georgia Tech to maintain total control in Atlanta for the SEC and ESPN. Then I think you will be getting a foreshadowing of the kind of thinking which is going into these decisions.

The Big 10 wants a bigger slice of Florida than just Miami, that only increases ESPN's and the SEC's desire for 1 of those two Florida schools and FSU delivers a higher % of the total Florida viewers, and Miami delivers an area where the SEC reach has been weak.

The SEC already locks down the rest. It would see Kansas as a favor to ESPN, and a nod to a solid division being built in a new SEC West. The SEC basketball is improving but add some brand names to Kentucky and voila they really increase the value of their Winter time sports offering. Clemson and FSU lock down the football branding and the Southeastern emphasis.

Meanwhile up North they will be eyeing Notre Dame and whatever they can do to clinch that relationship. Stanford makes sense in that context. That leaves them 4 to play with and Miami is AAU is in a nice DMA and is easily accessed via air travel. Where do they go from there? They could make a play for Georgia Tech which could leave the SEC looking West again. Or the Big 10 could go for Arizona to shore up a Western 6 and increase market share.

In other words, ESPN/SEC desires and FOX/Big 10 desires will determine the coming size of the Super 2. And the size of the Super 2 will directly impact the union of the rest in a third conference.

The size also will impact the selections made by the Big 10 and SEC.

If the move is to 20 Miami and Notre Dame or Stanford and Notre Dame could end it for them.

Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia would do the same for the SEC.

In that world the discussion in this thread is relevant.

But if both move to 24 (I think 22 would be a bit awkward for a return to divisions for the sake of travel), then it radically alters everything you've discussed here.

I think you should look at who you would take and how you would organize it if the SEC and Big 10 stop at 20, and do a contingent plan for if the stop at 24.

I struggle to understand how the SEC increasing its membership by a third will increase its overall value at this point. I mean I'll play with FSU and Clemson because synergistically they would provided amazing football content with current membership. But UVa football in the SEC would be an absolute drag. Culturally they don't fit in the SEC either. Carolina sort of has two camps, some who absolutely would prefer the SEC, and then some Yankee admins who might be drawn to the B18. What both have is absolute synergy with one another and VaTech, State, Dook, Wake, Clemson, and GaTech.

If there are 14 schools out there that increase the SEC and B18's value, then they should be making a lot more than they are currently.

Notre Dame, Florida State, Clemson, Miami, possibly Arizona State for the Big 10, can all still increase value with football for the right S2 or both.

North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado are market enhancements, as are the Arizona schools, and Utah. Any Florida school enhances markets for the Big 10.

Basketball will be treated the same as football because of the court rulings which equally apply. So, for hoops: Arizona, Duke, Kansas, North Carolina, Syracuse and Virginia add value.

In short there are half a dozen to 8 schools which add value. Not all value is just Football brand value.

The question isn't are there 14 schools which add value to the SEC and Big 10. The question is how many conference games does FOX and ESPN require to fulfill their time slots because if the upper tier breaks away that's all they will air. They will stream the others.

ABC contractually can choose to offer as many as 3 games on a Saturday, they definitely will have 2 slots. ESPN, ESPN2 & ESPN 4 all show at least 3 games each on a Saturday and the SECN does another 2. Friday night games are going to be an offering. There's another game on the weekend. That's 14. If we wind up having a closed conference schedule in the upper tier, and that's more likely than not because the investing network(s) don't have to split revenue if it is contained within the conference in which they hold the rights, then that means 14 conference games will be required for each of the ESPN and FOX (CBS/NBC) and that's still with a bye week in each conference for every school.

This is why I've been saying that inventory requirements and pro rata to obtain them so that the existing conference members are not losing money, will lead to larger conferences than people realize or can comprehend. 24 is quite possible, 28 is conceivable, and 32 isn't impossible. I still think though that 32 isn't the sweet spot for the networks.

24 makes it pretty tidy:
SEC Southwest: Kansas, Missouri, OU, Texas, TAMU, Arkansas
SEC South: LSU, Ole Miss, Miss State, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Auburn
SEC Southeast: Florida, FSU, U[sic]GA, GT, Clemson, South Carolina
SEC Appalachian: Tennessee, Kentucky, Virginia, Virginia Tech, UNC, NC State

To 28: +Duke(SE), UofL(SW), Miami (SE, FSU to S), WV (App)
To 28 all but FB: WF, Duke, Tulane, Rice

Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using CSNbbs mobile app

I like the concept. I would make one change which would re-arrange things a tad.

Let's take it from the bottom:

To 28 plus 4 for all but FB: Duke, Tulane, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest

To 28 for all sports:

SW: Arkansas, Baylor, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

South: Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, South Florida

Southeast: Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State, South Carolina

Appalachian: Kentucky, Louisville, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, West Virginia

Now you have 28 full members. 4 All but football members.

Big 10:

NE: Indiana, Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, Syracuse

MNW: Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Wisconsin

Plains: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Iowa, Iowa State, Nebraska, T.C.U.

West: California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Utah, Washington

All but football: Boston College, Connecticut, Gonzaga, Villanova

Wow you must really hate Tennessee.

Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using CSNbbs mobile app

(03-19-2024 06:12 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(03-17-2024 08:36 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-17-2024 07:44 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(03-17-2024 02:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-17-2024 02:07 PM)esayem Wrote:  I struggle to understand how the SEC increasing its membership by a third will increase its overall value at this point. I mean I'll play with FSU and Clemson because synergistically they would provided amazing football content with current membership. But UVa football in the SEC would be an absolute drag. Culturally they don't fit in the SEC either. Carolina sort of has two camps, some who absolutely would prefer the SEC, and then some Yankee admins who might be drawn to the B18. What both have is absolute synergy with one another and VaTech, State, Dook, Wake, Clemson, and GaTech.

If there are 14 schools out there that increase the SEC and B18's value, then they should be making a lot more than they are currently.

Notre Dame, Florida State, Clemson, Miami, possibly Arizona State for the Big 10, can all still increase value with football for the right S2 or both.

North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado are market enhancements, as are the Arizona schools, and Utah. Any Florida school enhances markets for the Big 10.

Basketball will be treated the same as football because of the court rulings which equally apply. So, for hoops: Arizona, Duke, Kansas, North Carolina, Syracuse and Virginia add value.

In short there are half a dozen to 8 schools which add value. Not all value is just Football brand value.

The question isn't are there 14 schools which add value to the SEC and Big 10. The question is how many conference games does FOX and ESPN require to fulfill their time slots because if the upper tier breaks away that's all they will air. They will stream the others.

ABC contractually can choose to offer as many as 3 games on a Saturday, they definitely will have 2 slots. ESPN, ESPN2 & ESPN 4 all show at least 3 games each on a Saturday and the SECN does another 2. Friday night games are going to be an offering. There's another game on the weekend. That's 14. If we wind up having a closed conference schedule in the upper tier, and that's more likely than not because the investing network(s) don't have to split revenue if it is contained within the conference in which they hold the rights, then that means 14 conference games will be required for each of the ESPN and FOX (CBS/NBC) and that's still with a bye week in each conference for every school.

This is why I've been saying that inventory requirements and pro rata to obtain them so that the existing conference members are not losing money, will lead to larger conferences than people realize or can comprehend. 24 is quite possible, 28 is conceivable, and 32 isn't impossible. I still think though that 32 isn't the sweet spot for the networks.

24 makes it pretty tidy:
SEC Southwest: Kansas, Missouri, OU, Texas, TAMU, Arkansas
SEC South: LSU, Ole Miss, Miss State, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Auburn
SEC Southeast: Florida, FSU, U[sic]GA, GT, Clemson, South Carolina
SEC Appalachian: Tennessee, Kentucky, Virginia, Virginia Tech, UNC, NC State

To 28: +Duke(SE), UofL(SW), Miami (SE, FSU to S), WV (App)
To 28 all but FB: WF, Duke, Tulane, Rice

Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using CSNbbs mobile app

I like the concept. I would make one change which would re-arrange things a tad.

Let's take it from the bottom:

To 28 plus 4 for all but FB: Duke, Tulane, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest

To 28 for all sports:

SW: Arkansas, Baylor, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

South: Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, South Florida

Southeast: Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State, South Carolina

Appalachian: Kentucky, Louisville, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, West Virginia

Now you have 28 full members. 4 All but football members.

Big 10:

NE: Indiana, Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, Syracuse

MNW: Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Wisconsin

Plains: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Iowa, Iowa State, Nebraska, T.C.U.

West: California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Utah, Washington

All but football: Boston College, Connecticut, Gonzaga, Villanova

Wow you must really hate Tennessee.

Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using CSNbbs mobile app

Ha! Good Catch! I wondered why I needed South Florida to make the math work. Tennessee stays with Alabama and Auburn remove the Bulls.

We've had to move my 90 year old Mom over the weekend and spent much of last week packing her things and moving the smaller ones over to her new apartment. Have been working with a lawyer to get the probating of my wife's Mom's will rolling, and I haven't been around nearly as much and a bit muddled in my thoughts when playing the computer in chess. Mom's fine, just ornery as ever! No place she's tried does she ultimately like. Her third move after coming to Auburn.

I have two younger siblings one a kid brother in his 40's Neither are ever here for Mom's little moves. As my Catholic friends would pray in the "Hail Mary" pray for us sinners now and at the hour of our death! Amen!"

(03-16-2024 06:27 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Frankly I have some mixed feelings about posting in this thread. But there are some fundamental things which I feel will determine the nature and direction of the P2.

The Big 10 stands at 18 and their last 4 additions held a valuation 600 million less than those of Texas and Oklahoma. The schools left to select from have a pecking order in valuation (their abilities to impact the indirectly the economies around them). This data point is very informative for realignment because it is a direct indicator of the support of a school within their own market reach.

We all understand what a blue blood is and the very nature of the strength of their brands are easy to grasp.

We understand revenue generation and attendance as indicators of a school's ability to help other future conference mates more money. But the ability to drive business outside of the school's athletic department itself is what builds synergy with conference mates.

Notre Dame's last posted cumulative value was .928 billion.
Kansas has one of .527 billion
FSU at .390 billion.
Clemson at .380 billion.

And everyone else is below that with various aspects standing out in their desirability.

Ever wonder how the AAU minded Big 10 could have rumors constantly floating rumors about taking Notre Dame, Clemson and FSU? Well there it is. Even if the Big 10 added Notre Dame they will still trail the SEC by well over 2 billion in their valuation total.

Every wonder why I speak often about Kansas? Kansas has synergy with Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas and Texas A&M and could easily build it with Arkansas.

If the Big 10 takes Notre Dame to keep its advantage all the SEC needs to do is to take Kansas, and either of FSU or Clemson. North Carolina and Virginia or Virginia Tech are market additions and those count too in that the two states are only 2 million shy of equaling holding the value of Florida as a state.

Well, if the SEC does pick up North Carolina and Virginia, with N.C. State and Virginia Tech ESPN keeps total control of the ad markets for 20 million people. So I don't dismiss this out of hand, and rather think it could have legs.

Well, if those 4 are taken to assuage ESPN's interests, and the SEC's concerns are then assuaged with the additions of Clemson, Florida State, Kansas, and perhaps Georgia Tech to maintain total control in Atlanta for the SEC and ESPN. Then I think you will be getting a foreshadowing of the kind of thinking which is going into these decisions.

The Big 10 wants a bigger slice of Florida than just Miami, that only increases ESPN's and the SEC's desire for 1 of those two Florida schools and FSU delivers a higher % of the total Florida viewers, and Miami delivers an area where the SEC reach has been weak.

The SEC already locks down the rest. It would see Kansas as a favor to ESPN, and a nod to a solid division being built in a new SEC West. The SEC basketball is improving but add some brand names to Kentucky and voila they really increase the value of their Winter time sports offering. Clemson and FSU lock down the football branding and the Southeastern emphasis.

Meanwhile up North they will be eyeing Notre Dame and whatever they can do to clinch that relationship. Stanford makes sense in that context. That leaves them 4 to play with and Miami is AAU is in a nice DMA and is easily accessed via air travel. Where do they go from there? They could make a play for Georgia Tech which could leave the SEC looking West again. Or the Big 10 could go for Arizona to shore up a Western 6 and increase market share.

In other words, ESPN/SEC desires and FOX/Big 10 desires will determine the coming size of the Super 2. And the size of the Super 2 will directly impact the union of the rest in a third conference.

The size also will impact the selections made by the Big 10 and SEC.

If the move is to 20 Miami and Notre Dame or Stanford and Notre Dame could end it for them.

Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia would do the same for the SEC.

In that world the discussion in this thread is relevant.

But if both move to 24 (I think 22 would be a bit awkward for a return to divisions for the sake of travel), then it radically alters everything you've discussed here.

I think you should look at who you would take and how you would organize it if the SEC and Big 10 stop at 20, and do a contingent plan for if the stop at 24.

This level of planning wouldn't be done and then leave movement to a whim.

ESPN or FOX wouldn't put this much time and effort into making changes without knowing the outcome, which would have to mean that there have been "talks" with certain schools.
It's unlikely that a Board would commit multi-millions to chance: "if you sue and can get out for X, after things settle down and you are free, we'll bring you in and perhaps give you a bonus to help cover your expenses".
Texas and Oklahoma made it known they were leaving for the SEC before they negotiated, not after. FSU could leave ESPN and the SEC for the B1G for a few extra dollars and ruin lots of planning on ESPN's part. Not a sound business decision.
Something is "fishy" about how things are unfolding, and this demands further investigation.

(03-17-2024 12:51 PM)PAW79 Wrote:  

(03-13-2024 07:46 AM)LaBradfordsTWill Wrote:  

(03-12-2024 10:12 AM)ken d Wrote:  I could envision the possibility that the SEC decides to go big in hoops in a big way, believing that their football is already strong enough. I do think they would accept Florida State to solidify their dominance in the state of Florida. What if they then add hoops to get to 20 members, taking UNC, Duke and Kansas to join Kentucky as blue blood heaven?

The Big Ten could conceivably match them at 20 by rescuing Stanford and Cal, establishing a dominant west coast presence and easing travel for their legacy schools.

What then? I could imagine a football alliance with 32 teams in four distinct regional divisions, which then act as separate conferences for all other sports. This behemoth would be further united under the banner of a single network, the ACCN, which already exists. Only in this scenario, it encompasses 22 states which together contain about 70% of the US population. One media contact to cover all 32 schools.

The four divisions/Olympic sports conferences are:

Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech, NC State, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Virginia, USF
Louisville, West Virginia, Pitt, UCF, Memphis, Cincinnati, Boston College, Syracuse
Oklahoma St, TCU, Kansas St, Baylor, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Houston, SMU
Utah, Arizona St, Washington St, BYU, Arizona, Oregon St, San Diego St, Colorado

The champ of each of these divisions qualify for a 16 team CFP, in which the SEC and B1G have 4 AQ each, and there are 4 at-large spots to give independent ND a path to the championship.

This would be my dream scenario for Louisville. We would get to play the teams we love to hate the most on a regular basis.

No offense intended for anyone but for me, this would be one of my nightmare scenarios for Clemson.

How about joining the Big 10 West then? Sound better?

(03-20-2024 05:14 AM)XLance Wrote:  This level of planning wouldn't be done and then leave movement to a whim.

ESPN or FOX wouldn't put this much time and effort into making changes without knowing the outcome, which would have to mean that there have been "talks" with certain schools.
It's unlikely that a Board would commit multi-millions to chance: "if you sue and can get out for X, after things settle down and you are free, we'll bring you in and perhaps give you a bonus to help cover your expenses".
Texas and Oklahoma made it known they were leaving for the SEC before they negotiated, not after. FSU could leave ESPN and the SEC for the B1G for a few extra dollars and ruin lots of planning on ESPN's part. Not a sound business decision.
Something is "fishy" about how things are unfolding, and this demands further investigation.

If you can't find illegal activity, you're not looking hard enough. Another reason why I'm sure that ESPN will have to take care of the ACC - to avoid lawsuits!

(03-15-2024 07:05 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(03-14-2024 10:38 PM)CardFan1 Wrote:  

(03-13-2024 07:46 AM)LaBradfordsTWill Wrote:  

(03-12-2024 10:12 AM)ken d Wrote:  I could envision the possibility that the SEC decides to go big in hoops in a big way, believing that their football is already strong enough. I do think they would accept Florida State to solidify their dominance in the state of Florida. What if they then add hoops to get to 20 members, taking UNC, Duke and Kansas to join Kentucky as blue blood heaven?

The Big Ten could conceivably match them at 20 by rescuing Stanford and Cal, establishing a dominant west coast presence and easing travel for their legacy schools.

What then? I could imagine a football alliance with 32 teams in four distinct regional divisions, which then act as separate conferences for all other sports. This behemoth would be further united under the banner of a single network, the ACCN, which already exists. Only in this scenario, it encompasses 22 states which together contain about 70% of the US population. One media contact to cover all 32 schools.

The four divisions/Olympic sports conferences are:

Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech, NC State, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Virginia, USF
Louisville, West Virginia, Pitt, UCF, Memphis, Cincinnati, Boston College, Syracuse
Oklahoma St, TCU, Kansas St, Baylor, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Houston, SMU
Utah, Arizona St, Washington St, BYU, Arizona, Oregon St, San Diego St, Colorado

The champ of each of these divisions qualify for a 16 team CFP, in which the SEC and B1G have 4 AQ each, and there are 4 at-large spots to give independent ND a path to the championship.

This would be my dream scenario for Louisville. We would get to play the teams we love to hate the most on a regular basis.

Big East 2.0

If VT ends up in "Big East 2.0" I'll still watch that instead of the so-called P2.
Even if VT joins one of the P2, I'll only watch VT games.

I may be a trend setter. I only really regularly watch ND games, and have been that way for about 60 years.

Its a longstanding thing with me. It has nothing to do with conference realignment, transfer portal or anything else. I just never liked or had an interest in the Big Ten or SEC.

I will occasionally watch something else, but if so, I find myself watching a game like Navy v Houston rather than a Big Ten or SEC game.

I don't have any interest in the Big Ten or SEC, so I rarely have enough of a rooting interest to sit through any of their games.

I don't think I have watched a Big Ten v. Big Ten game for decades. Same for the SEC.

I lived in Baton Rouge for 36 years and I never had any interest in attending an LSU game unless ND was the opponent. I lived 8 miles from Tiger Stadium. I was surrounded by LSU fans. I did my best to ignore LSU and the SEC.

Even if ND joins the Big Ten, I will not have much interest in non-ND Big Ten games and will quietly root for that conference to implode.

I will never be a fan of a conference, any conference, especially the Big Ten.