(02-19-2024 10:37 PM)IWantToTalkToRalphSampson Wrote:  

(02-19-2024 08:06 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-19-2024 07:48 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(02-19-2024 07:21 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(02-19-2024 06:55 PM)TerryD Wrote:  I have always thought that the ACC's bottom line settlement amount would be around $350 million since well before this litigation began.

What are your thoughts on how any settlement figure — $350M for example — might or might not be impacted if ESPN declines the extension renewal for 2027-36?

I question whether ESPN would want to decline the extension. Not b/c of the allegedly large delta between the current media rights agreement payment and the ACC's value on the open market, but rather for all that ACCN money that ESPN worked so hard set up as a strong, long term revenue stream that's actually increasing rather than decreasing in value. Calford and SMU just gave the ACCN a nice shot in the arm, too. Would ESPN want to walk away from that? If half the ACC left, well, sure, but if only one or 2 leave then the ACCN still has huge value.

I still think that the ACC should be working hard RIGHT NOW on a full merger with the Big 12. The ACC has great programs and the huge value of the ACCN, which would be turbocharged with the full Big 12 coming on board. Additionally, the ACC is in a position of strength with their significantly higher expected revenue streams into the 2030s. Yormark would have to listen if Phillips approached him, and his Presidents would have to be interested in talks about a potential merger. Perhaps it wouldn't work out, or perhaps it would lead to one of the Conference stealing half the schools from the other to form a new entity like the way the Big 12 was formed, but there's also a decent chance that, instead, it would lead to a true "Conference 3" that we've all spent so much time talking about. The 4 schools with P2 ambitions wouldn't be super excited about the idea ofc, but if they're all buying their way out anyway then who cares what they think.

The alternative to the ACC working on a full merger with the Big 12 is to roll the dice and hope that you don't lose all of UNC/FSU/Clemson and Miami between now and 2036. It's hard to see that far into the future, but the ACC has a genuine risk of losing all 4 of those schools tomorrow, next week or next year, and if that were to happen then it could end up being Pacopalypse 2.0 as the Big 12 feasts on the leftovers. Would Yormark and his 16 backup dancers sacrifice a potential to feast on half the ACC over the course of a decade to instead merge into the ACC now, start getting that juicy ACC money now, and fully ensure that they'd be in the 3 hole in football going forward (and likely only help secure their top spot in basketball)? I think that they would go for it because they're college administrators, and certainly in a time of cataclysmic change is very hard to come by.

1. Petitti and Sankey work out 2 things. They agree on full compliance and work together with the Courts and Congress to be told what that means so they can fulfill the wishes of the Legislative and Legal branches of our government.

2. Petitti and Sankey agree on which schools will be added to each conference. They do this with informal direction from FOX and ESPN. They place a hold on announcing any moves.

3. The CFP committee sees all of the aspects that they wanted met which were left out of ESPN's bid, and they decline it.

4. Petitti and Sankey announce that the SEC and Big 10 are leaving the NCAA and starting their own professionalized tier of college athletics. They talk about working out the details on a 16-team playoff to be held just for their tier and cite the disgruntlement of the CFP and the declined bid as their impetus.

5. ESPN and FOX decline to resubmit a bid on the CFP.

6. ESPN declines to pick up the option extending the ACC's contract effective at the end of the upcoming 2024-25 season.

7. All ACC schools become free agents and Sankey and Petitti invite those they have decided upon. There are no GOR penalties and only a single year's exit fee of withheld conference media revenue.

8. Sankey and Petitti give an open invitation to any schools who wish to be a part of their new upper tier with a complete list of the costs and expectations. Kansas and the 4 corners and any other Big 12 and ACC schools now have to make decisions.

9. The new upper tier is formed, possibly with a third conference comprised of the opt ins.

This is how this can play out without the problems so many like to dwell upon here. t

10. The upper tier sells their media rights as one. This gives them more leverage in dealing with the rights purchasers. The 16-team post season brings in 2.5 billion annually. The schools split 50% of the NET profit with the Networks. The upper tier schools earn in the range of 85 to 90 million.

ESPN and FOX cut their overhead, concentrate their payouts, and have plenty of high yield inventory and the college playoff they wanted with no ratings duds in the field.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you your New World Order of College Sports.

I don’t disagree that this a probable outcome, but it’s also civil conspiracy and tortious interference.

And bye-bye to non profit status

(02-19-2024 10:43 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(02-19-2024 10:37 PM)IWantToTalkToRalphSampson Wrote:  

(02-19-2024 08:06 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-19-2024 07:48 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(02-19-2024 07:21 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  What are your thoughts on how any settlement figure — $350M for example — might or might not be impacted if ESPN declines the extension renewal for 2027-36?

I question whether ESPN would want to decline the extension. Not b/c of the allegedly large delta between the current media rights agreement payment and the ACC's value on the open market, but rather for all that ACCN money that ESPN worked so hard set up as a strong, long term revenue stream that's actually increasing rather than decreasing in value. Calford and SMU just gave the ACCN a nice shot in the arm, too. Would ESPN want to walk away from that? If half the ACC left, well, sure, but if only one or 2 leave then the ACCN still has huge value.

I still think that the ACC should be working hard RIGHT NOW on a full merger with the Big 12. The ACC has great programs and the huge value of the ACCN, which would be turbocharged with the full Big 12 coming on board. Additionally, the ACC is in a position of strength with their significantly higher expected revenue streams into the 2030s. Yormark would have to listen if Phillips approached him, and his Presidents would have to be interested in talks about a potential merger. Perhaps it wouldn't work out, or perhaps it would lead to one of the Conference stealing half the schools from the other to form a new entity like the way the Big 12 was formed, but there's also a decent chance that, instead, it would lead to a true "Conference 3" that we've all spent so much time talking about. The 4 schools with P2 ambitions wouldn't be super excited about the idea ofc, but if they're all buying their way out anyway then who cares what they think.

The alternative to the ACC working on a full merger with the Big 12 is to roll the dice and hope that you don't lose all of UNC/FSU/Clemson and Miami between now and 2036. It's hard to see that far into the future, but the ACC has a genuine risk of losing all 4 of those schools tomorrow, next week or next year, and if that were to happen then it could end up being Pacopalypse 2.0 as the Big 12 feasts on the leftovers. Would Yormark and his 16 backup dancers sacrifice a potential to feast on half the ACC over the course of a decade to instead merge into the ACC now, start getting that juicy ACC money now, and fully ensure that they'd be in the 3 hole in football going forward (and likely only help secure their top spot in basketball)? I think that they would go for it because they're college administrators, and certainly in a time of cataclysmic change is very hard to come by.

1. Petitti and Sankey work out 2 things. They agree on full compliance and work together with the Courts and Congress to be told what that means so they can fulfill the wishes of the Legislative and Legal branches of our government.

2. Petitti and Sankey agree on which schools will be added to each conference. They do this with informal direction from FOX and ESPN. They place a hold on announcing any moves.

3. The CFP committee sees all of the aspects that they wanted met which were left out of ESPN's bid, and they decline it.

4. Petitti and Sankey announce that the SEC and Big 10 are leaving the NCAA and starting their own professionalized tier of college athletics. They talk about working out the details on a 16-team playoff to be held just for their tier and cite the disgruntlement of the CFP and the declined bid as their impetus.

5. ESPN and FOX decline to resubmit a bid on the CFP.

6. ESPN declines to pick up the option extending the ACC's contract effective at the end of the upcoming 2024-25 season.

7. All ACC schools become free agents and Sankey and Petitti invite those they have decided upon. There are no GOR penalties and only a single year's exit fee of withheld conference media revenue.

8. Sankey and Petitti give an open invitation to any schools who wish to be a part of their new upper tier with a complete list of the costs and expectations. Kansas and the 4 corners and any other Big 12 and ACC schools now have to make decisions.

9. The new upper tier is formed, possibly with a third conference comprised of the opt ins.

This is how this can play out without the problems so many like to dwell upon here. t

10. The upper tier sells their media rights as one. This gives them more leverage in dealing with the rights purchasers. The 16-team post season brings in 2.5 billion annually. The schools split 50% of the NET profit with the Networks. The upper tier schools earn in the range of 85 to 90 million.

ESPN and FOX cut their overhead, concentrate their payouts, and have plenty of high yield inventory and the college playoff they wanted with no ratings duds in the field.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you your New World Order of College Sports.

I don’t disagree that this a probable outcome, but it’s also civil conspiracy and tortious interference.

And bye-bye to non profit status

That sir, was D.O.A. with the court rulings.

(02-19-2024 10:37 PM)IWantToTalkToRalphSampson Wrote:  

(02-19-2024 08:06 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-19-2024 07:48 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(02-19-2024 07:21 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(02-19-2024 06:55 PM)TerryD Wrote:  I have always thought that the ACC's bottom line settlement amount would be around $350 million since well before this litigation began.

What are your thoughts on how any settlement figure — $350M for example — might or might not be impacted if ESPN declines the extension renewal for 2027-36?

I question whether ESPN would want to decline the extension. Not b/c of the allegedly large delta between the current media rights agreement payment and the ACC's value on the open market, but rather for all that ACCN money that ESPN worked so hard set up as a strong, long term revenue stream that's actually increasing rather than decreasing in value. Calford and SMU just gave the ACCN a nice shot in the arm, too. Would ESPN want to walk away from that? If half the ACC left, well, sure, but if only one or 2 leave then the ACCN still has huge value.

I still think that the ACC should be working hard RIGHT NOW on a full merger with the Big 12. The ACC has great programs and the huge value of the ACCN, which would be turbocharged with the full Big 12 coming on board. Additionally, the ACC is in a position of strength with their significantly higher expected revenue streams into the 2030s. Yormark would have to listen if Phillips approached him, and his Presidents would have to be interested in talks about a potential merger. Perhaps it wouldn't work out, or perhaps it would lead to one of the Conference stealing half the schools from the other to form a new entity like the way the Big 12 was formed, but there's also a decent chance that, instead, it would lead to a true "Conference 3" that we've all spent so much time talking about. The 4 schools with P2 ambitions wouldn't be super excited about the idea ofc, but if they're all buying their way out anyway then who cares what they think.

The alternative to the ACC working on a full merger with the Big 12 is to roll the dice and hope that you don't lose all of UNC/FSU/Clemson and Miami between now and 2036. It's hard to see that far into the future, but the ACC has a genuine risk of losing all 4 of those schools tomorrow, next week or next year, and if that were to happen then it could end up being Pacopalypse 2.0 as the Big 12 feasts on the leftovers. Would Yormark and his 16 backup dancers sacrifice a potential to feast on half the ACC over the course of a decade to instead merge into the ACC now, start getting that juicy ACC money now, and fully ensure that they'd be in the 3 hole in football going forward (and likely only help secure their top spot in basketball)? I think that they would go for it because they're college administrators, and certainly in a time of cataclysmic change is very hard to come by.

1. Petitti and Sankey work out 2 things. They agree on full compliance and work together with the Courts and Congress to be told what that means so they can fulfill the wishes of the Legislative and Legal branches of our government.

2. Petitti and Sankey agree on which schools will be added to each conference. They do this with informal direction from FOX and ESPN. They place a hold on announcing any moves.

3. The CFP committee sees all of the aspects that they wanted met which were left out of ESPN's bid, and they decline it.

4. Petitti and Sankey announce that the SEC and Big 10 are leaving the NCAA and starting their own professionalized tier of college athletics. They talk about working out the details on a 16-team playoff to be held just for their tier and cite the disgruntlement of the CFP and the declined bid as their impetus.

5. ESPN and FOX decline to resubmit a bid on the CFP.

6. ESPN declines to pick up the option extending the ACC's contract effective at the end of the upcoming 2024-25 season.

7. All ACC schools become free agents and Sankey and Petitti invite those they have decided upon. There are no GOR penalties and only a single year's exit fee of withheld conference media revenue.

8. Sankey and Petitti give an open invitation to any schools who wish to be a part of their new upper tier with a complete list of the costs and expectations. Kansas and the 4 corners and any other Big 12 and ACC schools now have to make decisions.

9. The new upper tier is formed, possibly with a third conference comprised of the opt ins.

This is how this can play out without the problems so many like to dwell upon here. t

10. The upper tier sells their media rights as one. This gives them more leverage in dealing with the rights purchasers. The 16-team post season brings in 2.5 billion annually. The schools split 50% of the NET profit with the Networks. The upper tier schools earn in the range of 85 to 90 million.

ESPN and FOX cut their overhead, concentrate their payouts, and have plenty of high yield inventory and the college playoff they wanted with no ratings duds in the field.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you your New World Order of College Sports.

I don’t disagree that this a probable outcome, but it’s also civil conspiracy and tortious interference.

Well, it depends upon proving it, and having enough money to overcome the endless legal wranglings of corporate attorneys. And if it profits, non dare call it treason. And those it profits most help with PAC money. And as for the other parties, well that would state against state.

(02-19-2024 07:38 PM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(02-19-2024 07:22 PM)goofus Wrote:  I don't see what FSU gains by leaving early. A huge finacial penalty for almost a decade due to a huge buyout. They can get paid about the same if they just stay in the ACC.

If they are pissed off they missed the CFP that problem has been solved with the 12-team playoff. So what's the benefit in leaving early?

The benefits are numerous - seat at the power table as changes come to college sports, associating with more like-minded regional universities (if we can get into the SEC), more interesting football schedule, more tickets sold, more eyeballs on TV to name a few.

Don't forget about the SECU, please!! That organization has done wonders for UGA, UK, and 'Bama, IMO!!!

(02-19-2024 08:06 PM)JRsec Wrote:  1. Petitti and Sankey work out 2 things. They agree on full compliance and work together with the Courts and Congress to be told what that means so they can fulfill the wishes of the Legislative and Legal branches of our government.

2. Petitti and Sankey agree on which schools will be added to each conference. They do this with informal direction from FOX and ESPN. They place a hold on announcing any moves.

3. The CFP committee sees all of the aspects that they wanted met which were left out of ESPN's bid, and they decline it.

4. Petitti and Sankey announce that the SEC and Big 10 are leaving the NCAA and starting their own professionalized tier of college athletics. They talk about working out the details on a 16-team playoff to be held just for their tier and cite the disgruntlement of the CFP and the declined bid as their impetus.

5. ESPN and FOX decline to resubmit a bid on the CFP.

6. ESPN declines to pick up the option extending the ACC's contract effective at the end of the upcoming 2024-25 season.

7. All ACC schools become free agents and Sankey and Petitti invite those they have decided upon. There are no GOR penalties and only a single year's exit fee of withheld conference media revenue.

8. Sankey and Petitti give an open invitation to any schools who wish to be a part of their new upper tier with a complete list of the costs and expectations. Kansas and the 4 corners and any other Big 12 and ACC schools now have to make decisions.

9. The new upper tier is formed, possibly with a third conference comprised of the opt ins.

This is how this can play out without the problems so many like to dwell upon here. t

10. The upper tier sells their media rights as one. This gives them more leverage in dealing with the rights purchasers. The 16-team post season brings in 2.5 billion annually. The schools split 50% of the NET profit with the Networks. The upper tier schools earn in the range of 85 to 90 million.

ESPN and FOX cut their overhead, concentrate their payouts, and have plenty of high yield inventory and the college playoff they wanted with no ratings duds in the field.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you your New World Order of College Sports.

A compelling Chess Take, I'd say, amid a few truly questionable Checkers Takes.

(02-19-2024 10:34 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(02-19-2024 07:21 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  What are your thoughts on how any settlement figure — $350M for example — might or might not be impacted if ESPN declines the extension renewal for 2027-36?

A bottom line number is a bottom line number.

The ACC has until sometime in 2025 to say they just assume it will be extended.

Why budge until that changes?

FSU doesn't want this to drag out until then, do they?

ESPN might just renew after all

(02-19-2024 10:37 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(02-19-2024 08:00 PM)UpStreamRedTeam Wrote:  

(02-19-2024 07:05 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(02-19-2024 07:03 PM)BcatMatt13 Wrote:  Now the question is anyone else willing to pay that kind of money to get out

"So tell us about the alternative"

Keep playing in the ACC and collect $35M+ for a long time?

What is this $35M from?

Isn't that what the current ACC TV payout is, more or less?

I would propose to FSU the following settlement:
Pay the $150m exit fee to leave
Agree that the ACC owns the rights under the GoR and the ACC is willing to lease those rights to the P2. The ACC would require a minimum of what a full share of ACC rights would be. Some or all the money over that amount would go to FSU.

The ACC then adds USF at the same terms CalFord got. So the ACC keeps 2/3rds of the media.

You get this all agreed to by this summer so the penalties are fully owned by current members.

That puts the ACC comfortably ahead of Big12 until the conference dissolves in 2036.

(02-19-2024 07:09 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(02-19-2024 06:00 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  Per On3 sports:

"Make no mistake, a negotiation is going to happen. The potential outcomes at trial are disasters for Florida State or the ACC. Should Florida State lose, it could be stuck in the ACC no matter how much it’s willing to pay. Should the ACC lose, Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, Miami and any other school that wants to leave could walk away scot-free.

The number likely will land somewhere near the middle of that $150 million floor and that $572 (million) ceiling. Then Florida State will pay. And while neither the Big Ten nor the SEC have expressed any public interest in the Seminoles, it seems highly likely one or both leagues would then try to scoop up Florida State as well as the other desirable properties that choose to buy their way out once Florida State breaks the seal.

Given the seeming inevitability of a negotiation, it almost doesn’t matter if the Big Ten or SEC are interested now. If several potentially additive programs buy their way into free agency at once, the competitiveness of the true Power 2 could take over. The Big Ten would see an opportunity to plant its flag in the South. The SEC might feel a need to defend its borders or expand its footprint.

Even if the cost to exit is $300 million or $350 million and Florida State (and/or the others) exits prior to the 2025 football season, it’s not a bad deal for the schools. A school in the Big Ten or SEC is going to make at least $35 million more from its conference than a school in the ACC as currently constituted. With 11 years remaining on the ACC deal at that point, it’s nearly a break-even proposition with a brighter future on the back end."

LINK: The Florida State-ACC negotiation will set the terms for more college football realignment

If it's only $350m then FSU would be writing a check today. The Wake Forests of the world will just be sitting back, counting their additional dollars:

$350m over 10 years = $35m per year

if 1 school leaves that's 16 schools left
$35m/16 = $2.2m per year per left behind school

2 schools leavge that's 15 schools left
$70m/15 = 4.67m per year per left behind school

3 schools leave that's 14 left
$105m/14 = $7.5m per year per left behind school for a decade

My guess is that the ACC is on very firm legal ground but they settle at something closer to $700m, so $4.4m per left behind school for a decade. Keep doubling each number, if 3 schools end up paying that gargantuan buyout then that's an extra $15m per year per left behind member, quite a nice parting gift, and quite possibly enough to persuade UNC to stick around at least until 2036. Unlike Miami, FSU, or Clemson, a basketball school like UNC would be unlikely to see a huge boost in booster donations from joining either of the P2, so their only benefit, or most of their benefit, would be from the delta between what the ACC was paying and what the P2 was paying. Even assuming a very extreme $40m avg delta between now and 2036 on the current ACC deal, and making the reasonable assumption that any move would actually happen in 2026 instead of 2025:

$15m extra per year from the 3 departing schools drops thatt down to 40-15 = 25m per year

10 years x 25m/yr = $250m
cost to exit = $700m

$700m-$250m = $450m net loss in revenue over a decade, so a $45m revenue loss per year for a decade to go to Conference that you don't control that isn't any better at basketball. Oh, and you don't play Duke 2-3 times per year anymore, maybe once now, and you probably have some sort of Carolinamony that you're paying to NC St every year, too.

Hmmm, looking at that, even $350m exit fee might be enough to get UNC to stay. $500m is definitely enough.

For the left behinds to gain all the above $$ TV deal per school would have to remain flat. If you lose FSU, NC, and 2 to 4 more off the top, The ACC won't be worth the current $$ from ESPN.

(02-20-2024 04:30 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(02-19-2024 08:06 PM)JRsec Wrote:  1. Petitti and Sankey work out 2 things. They agree on full compliance and work together with the Courts and Congress to be told what that means so they can fulfill the wishes of the Legislative and Legal branches of our government.

2. Petitti and Sankey agree on which schools will be added to each conference. They do this with informal direction from FOX and ESPN. They place a hold on announcing any moves.

3. The CFP committee sees all of the aspects that they wanted met which were left out of ESPN's bid, and they decline it.

4. Petitti and Sankey announce that the SEC and Big 10 are leaving the NCAA and starting their own professionalized tier of college athletics. They talk about working out the details on a 16-team playoff to be held just for their tier and cite the disgruntlement of the CFP and the declined bid as their impetus.

5. ESPN and FOX decline to resubmit a bid on the CFP.

6. ESPN declines to pick up the option extending the ACC's contract effective at the end of the upcoming 2024-25 season.

7. All ACC schools become free agents and Sankey and Petitti invite those they have decided upon. There are no GOR penalties and only a single year's exit fee of withheld conference media revenue.

8. Sankey and Petitti give an open invitation to any schools who wish to be a part of their new upper tier with a complete list of the costs and expectations. Kansas and the 4 corners and any other Big 12 and ACC schools now have to make decisions.

9. The new upper tier is formed, possibly with a third conference comprised of the opt ins.

This is how this can play out without the problems so many like to dwell upon here. t

10. The upper tier sells their media rights as one. This gives them more leverage in dealing with the rights purchasers. The 16-team post season brings in 2.5 billion annually. The schools split 50% of the NET profit with the Networks. The upper tier schools earn in the range of 85 to 90 million.

ESPN and FOX cut their overhead, concentrate their payouts, and have plenty of high yield inventory and the college playoff they wanted with no ratings duds in the field.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you your New World Order of College Sports.

A compelling Chess Take, I'd say, amid a few truly questionable Checkers Takes.

It's always clear who has been in a position of problem solving and who are essentially button pushers in need of a script.

JR, nice NWO reference JR. Probably not what you were going for but this wrestling stable turned the industry upside down in the 90s. Not completely dissimilar.

Would like to see Clemson stay since they're a charter member. FSU and Miami can have the door hit them in the Ass on their way out!!

Schools want to be kept whole. If I'm an admin at an ACC school that doesn't have a landing spot, I'm thinking, how can I be kept whole past 2036? That's doomsday for me because the valuable schools WILL leave then (if the can't leave sooner). Can I play my cards to extend this out further? Maybe to 2050?

ESPN seems the most likely to get the shaft in all of this, at least short term. If FSU (and potentially others) pays the ACC a large sum of money to get out, then the remaining schools get that money. ESPN is also stuck paying the full price of the media rights contract to fewer (and less valuable) ACC schools. On top of that, ESPN would have to shell out more to the SEC for any schools joining up with them.

Perhaps a solution here is for ESPN and the ACC to renegotiate their contract similar to what we saw with the Big XII. Each remaining ACC school is made whole (or even slightly better) by spreading out the exit fees of the schools that want to leave. Figure out what those exit fees are, do the math to make the remaining ACC schools happy and extend the contract to 2050. Heck you could even have the exit fees for the schools leaving to be annual payments that offset things over 25 years if all parties wanted.

Math - These values can vary greatly but I just use these as a starting point/example to show the process.
Current ACC payout: $35 million per year
Exit fee per school: $350 million
Annual payment by exiting schools over 25 years: $14,000,000
Schools Leaving: 4
Total Exit fees ACC will receive: $1.4 billion
Remaining ACC schools (minus ND): 13
Total exit fee income per remaining school: ~108 million
Exit Fee income per year per remaining school over 25 years: ~$4.3 million

* So, if ESPN agrees to continue paying the remaining ACC schools $30 to $35 million per year until 2050, that likely benefits ESPN as market value increases and inflation kicks in over time. Similar to how their current long media contract with the ACC has benefited them.
* The remaining ACC schools are kept whole (and have a little extra from the exit fees) for another 25 years. Would they like that? I think some schools would, but others may not. But what happens in 2036 when the GoR is done and the schools that can leave, do? The remaining schools will likely get peanuts in their next media contract. Extending things out (like the Big XII did two years ago) can delay that from happening.
* The schools that want to leave get to leave and don't have to make a massive payout right away. They will still come out ahead per year, even paying $14 million per year.

Odds are, most parties would want to do a lump sum buyout and move on, but there are possibilities that can make everyone happy here. It can happen and I think it eventually will happen.

(02-20-2024 08:18 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(02-19-2024 10:34 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(02-19-2024 07:21 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  What are your thoughts on how any settlement figure — $350M for example — might or might not be impacted if ESPN declines the extension renewal for 2027-36?

A bottom line number is a bottom line number.

The ACC has until sometime in 2025 to say they just assume it will be extended.

Why budge until that changes?

FSU doesn't want this to drag out until then, do they?

ESPN might just renew after all

Lol, it is a possible outcome

I don't really care if the current ACC survives or not.

No emotion here.

(02-20-2024 10:44 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(02-20-2024 04:30 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(02-19-2024 08:06 PM)JRsec Wrote:  1. Petitti and Sankey work out 2 things. They agree on full compliance and work together with the Courts and Congress to be told what that means so they can fulfill the wishes of the Legislative and Legal branches of our government.

2. Petitti and Sankey agree on which schools will be added to each conference. They do this with informal direction from FOX and ESPN. They place a hold on announcing any moves.

3. The CFP committee sees all of the aspects that they wanted met which were left out of ESPN's bid, and they decline it.

4. Petitti and Sankey announce that the SEC and Big 10 are leaving the NCAA and starting their own professionalized tier of college athletics. They talk about working out the details on a 16-team playoff to be held just for their tier and cite the disgruntlement of the CFP and the declined bid as their impetus.

5. ESPN and FOX decline to resubmit a bid on the CFP.

6. ESPN declines to pick up the option extending the ACC's contract effective at the end of the upcoming 2024-25 season.

7. All ACC schools become free agents and Sankey and Petitti invite those they have decided upon. There are no GOR penalties and only a single year's exit fee of withheld conference media revenue.

8. Sankey and Petitti give an open invitation to any schools who wish to be a part of their new upper tier with a complete list of the costs and expectations. Kansas and the 4 corners and any other Big 12 and ACC schools now have to make decisions.

9. The new upper tier is formed, possibly with a third conference comprised of the opt ins.

This is how this can play out without the problems so many like to dwell upon here. t

10. The upper tier sells their media rights as one. This gives them more leverage in dealing with the rights purchasers. The 16-team post season brings in 2.5 billion annually. The schools split 50% of the NET profit with the Networks. The upper tier schools earn in the range of 85 to 90 million.

ESPN and FOX cut their overhead, concentrate their payouts, and have plenty of high yield inventory and the college playoff they wanted with no ratings duds in the field.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you your New World Order of College Sports.

A compelling Chess Take, I'd say, amid a few truly questionable Checkers Takes.

It's always clear who has been in a position of problem solving and who are essentially button pushers in need of a script.

JR, nice NWO reference JR. Probably not what you were going for but this wrestling stable turned the industry upside down in the 90s. Not completely dissimilar.

My "rasslin'" days go deeper into history than that! Dick Dunn and Flash and Rocket Monroe to name a few.

I enjoyed 2 things in my 2 careers. Figuring out how to accomplish an objective and figuring out how to screw up the objectives of my competitors. In other words, "doing" and "sapping". The people I got rid of where those who constantly told me why something could not be accomplished and the people, I promoted were those who were sharp enough to figure a way out to legally get it done. Sapping was just the fun part of it. And those were in the corporate years. In the non-profit years it was the same, but the nuance changed. You wanted to maximize what you could do to help people and thwart those who were seeking to take advantage of them.

In business sapping was fun and there was a comradery with your competitors over counting coup upon each other. And that competition and their probing your weaknesses and you of theirs was to mutual benefit. What better critic of your approach than a competitor who had a vested interest in exploiting a weakness.

In non-profit work the stakes were higher and the sapping not a matter of fun but of necessity and it created real stress. By doing that work you were going to be threatened in ways most would find disturbing. For the vulnerable it's not a game, there is no comradery between the competitors, and the entities which prey upon them don't like interference. Stopping them was fulfilling but dangerous. Your team members in that had to be people you absolutely trusted. And that makes all of this look like what it is. A large public distraction which has to be reformed to eliminate inequities that were created when a pastime grew into a multi-billion-dollar industry. Here, in spite of inconveniences to academic institutions, irritations to fans, and the upheaval, inequities are being addressed, and it is not earth shaking because it is still entertainment. When we put as much focus into protecting by the enforcement of existing laws, all communities within our society from its domestic and foreign predators, then we will have done something worthwhile. But as with all things I experienced in corporate and nonprofit life, if we do there will be some counting coup, only it won't be friendly, and those who figure out how we can do should be promoted or elected, and those who always say you can't do should be fired. And the teamwork needs to be tight on trust, because some of the predators are not only domestic, but entrenched within the power structure. Failure to protect all of the citizenry from predation is not only the dereliction of duty of those elected to do so, but a tell-tale sign of the enemy within. And poking that bear is inherently dangerous because they have so many avenues with which to stop or harm you, or those you care about.

People get twisted and wound up over college football and that's a good surrogate outlet for other stress, but it's just a game. The real things we should get wound up over are those things harming the others around us. And if we spent the same amount of time learning the play book of the predators as we do of our favorite teams, we would be much better prepared to stop them. Let's realign that!

(02-20-2024 10:11 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(02-19-2024 07:09 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(02-19-2024 06:00 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  Per On3 sports:

"Make no mistake, a negotiation is going to happen. The potential outcomes at trial are disasters for Florida State or the ACC. Should Florida State lose, it could be stuck in the ACC no matter how much it’s willing to pay. Should the ACC lose, Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, Miami and any other school that wants to leave could walk away scot-free.

The number likely will land somewhere near the middle of that $150 million floor and that $572 (million) ceiling. Then Florida State will pay. And while neither the Big Ten nor the SEC have expressed any public interest in the Seminoles, it seems highly likely one or both leagues would then try to scoop up Florida State as well as the other desirable properties that choose to buy their way out once Florida State breaks the seal.

Given the seeming inevitability of a negotiation, it almost doesn’t matter if the Big Ten or SEC are interested now. If several potentially additive programs buy their way into free agency at once, the competitiveness of the true Power 2 could take over. The Big Ten would see an opportunity to plant its flag in the South. The SEC might feel a need to defend its borders or expand its footprint.

Even if the cost to exit is $300 million or $350 million and Florida State (and/or the others) exits prior to the 2025 football season, it’s not a bad deal for the schools. A school in the Big Ten or SEC is going to make at least $35 million more from its conference than a school in the ACC as currently constituted. With 11 years remaining on the ACC deal at that point, it’s nearly a break-even proposition with a brighter future on the back end."

LINK: The Florida State-ACC negotiation will set the terms for more college football realignment

If it's only $350m then FSU would be writing a check today. The Wake Forests of the world will just be sitting back, counting their additional dollars:

$350m over 10 years = $35m per year

if 1 school leaves that's 16 schools left
$35m/16 = $2.2m per year per left behind school

2 schools leavge that's 15 schools left
$70m/15 = 4.67m per year per left behind school

3 schools leave that's 14 left
$105m/14 = $7.5m per year per left behind school for a decade

My guess is that the ACC is on very firm legal ground but they settle at something closer to $700m, so $4.4m per left behind school for a decade. Keep doubling each number, if 3 schools end up paying that gargantuan buyout then that's an extra $15m per year per left behind member, quite a nice parting gift, and quite possibly enough to persuade UNC to stick around at least until 2036. Unlike Miami, FSU, or Clemson, a basketball school like UNC would be unlikely to see a huge boost in booster donations from joining either of the P2, so their only benefit, or most of their benefit, would be from the delta between what the ACC was paying and what the P2 was paying. Even assuming a very extreme $40m avg delta between now and 2036 on the current ACC deal, and making the reasonable assumption that any move would actually happen in 2026 instead of 2025:

$15m extra per year from the 3 departing schools drops thatt down to 40-15 = 25m per year

10 years x 25m/yr = $250m
cost to exit = $700m

$700m-$250m = $450m net loss in revenue over a decade, so a $45m revenue loss per year for a decade to go to Conference that you don't control that isn't any better at basketball. Oh, and you don't play Duke 2-3 times per year anymore, maybe once now, and you probably have some sort of Carolinamony that you're paying to NC St every year, too.

Hmmm, looking at that, even $350m exit fee might be enough to get UNC to stay. $500m is definitely enough.

For the left behinds to gain all the above $$ TV deal per school would have to remain flat. If you lose FSU, NC, and 2 to 4 more off the top, The ACC won't be worth the current $$ from ESPN.

ESPN is contractually required to pay the ACC as long as they have 14 football members. The thinking is that the 3 adds last year were to pre-backfill in case a few schools decided to do what FSU has done, thus keeping the ACC deal with ESPN intact until 2036. I'm not sure how many the ACC would need to lose to get ESPN to walk away from the ACCN in 2027, but it's more than 2.

(02-20-2024 11:02 AM)Eggszecutor Wrote:  Schools want to be kept whole. If I'm an admin at an ACC school that doesn't have a landing spot, I'm thinking, how can I be kept whole past 2036? That's doomsday for me because the valuable schools WILL leave then (if the can't leave sooner). Can I play my cards to extend this out further? Maybe to 2050?

ESPN seems the most likely to get the shaft in all of this, at least short term. If FSU (and potentially others) pays the ACC a large sum of money to get out, then the remaining schools get that money. ESPN is also stuck paying the full price of the media rights contract to fewer (and less valuable) ACC schools. On top of that, ESPN would have to shell out more to the SEC for any schools joining up with them.

Perhaps a solution here is for ESPN and the ACC to renegotiate their contract similar to what we saw with the Big XII. Each remaining ACC school is made whole (or even slightly better) by spreading out the exit fees of the schools that want to leave. Figure out what those exit fees are, do the math to make the remaining ACC schools happy and extend the contract to 2050. Heck you could even have the exit fees for the schools leaving to be annual payments that offset things over 25 years if all parties wanted.

Math - These values can vary greatly but I just use these as a starting point/example to show the process.
Current ACC payout: $35 million per year
Exit fee per school: $350 million
Annual payment by exiting schools over 25 years: $14,000,000
Schools Leaving: 4
Total Exit fees ACC will receive: $1.4 billion
Remaining ACC schools (minus ND): 13
Total exit fee income per remaining school: ~108 million
Exit Fee income per year per remaining school over 25 years: ~$4.3 million

* So, if ESPN agrees to continue paying the remaining ACC schools $30 to $35 million per year until 2050, that likely benefits ESPN as market value increases and inflation kicks in over time. Similar to how their current long media contract with the ACC has benefited them.
* The remaining ACC schools are kept whole (and have a little extra from the exit fees) for another 25 years. Would they like that? I think some schools would, but others may not. But what happens in 2036 when the GoR is done and the schools that can leave, do? The remaining schools will likely get peanuts in their next media contract. Extending things out (like the Big XII did two years ago) can delay that from happening.
* The schools that want to leave get to leave and don't have to make a massive payout right away. They will still come out ahead per year, even paying $14 million per year.

Odds are, most parties would want to do a lump sum buyout and move on, but there are possibilities that can make everyone happy here. It can happen and I think it eventually will happen.

25 years is a long time. I'm not sure what the top athletic budget was 25 years ago, but I'm gonna guess that it was less than $50m.

edit: it looks like Texas had a budget of $82.4m in 2005. They were $273m in 2023, 18 years later. The median Big 12 budget back then was $46m.

https://knightnewhousedata.org/fbs/big-1...ion_data-1

Maybe $50m is a bit low for 1999, but it's probably reasonably close. Let's say that the top budgets were about $70m in 1999 and about $280m in 2024. That $4.3m per year doesn't look like very much money in light of that... more like $1.1m a year in 2049 athletic dept dollars.

(02-20-2024 04:03 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(02-20-2024 10:11 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(02-19-2024 07:09 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(02-19-2024 06:00 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  Per On3 sports:

"Make no mistake, a negotiation is going to happen. The potential outcomes at trial are disasters for Florida State or the ACC. Should Florida State lose, it could be stuck in the ACC no matter how much it’s willing to pay. Should the ACC lose, Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, Miami and any other school that wants to leave could walk away scot-free.

The number likely will land somewhere near the middle of that $150 million floor and that $572 (million) ceiling. Then Florida State will pay. And while neither the Big Ten nor the SEC have expressed any public interest in the Seminoles, it seems highly likely one or both leagues would then try to scoop up Florida State as well as the other desirable properties that choose to buy their way out once Florida State breaks the seal.

Given the seeming inevitability of a negotiation, it almost doesn’t matter if the Big Ten or SEC are interested now. If several potentially additive programs buy their way into free agency at once, the competitiveness of the true Power 2 could take over. The Big Ten would see an opportunity to plant its flag in the South. The SEC might feel a need to defend its borders or expand its footprint.

Even if the cost to exit is $300 million or $350 million and Florida State (and/or the others) exits prior to the 2025 football season, it’s not a bad deal for the schools. A school in the Big Ten or SEC is going to make at least $35 million more from its conference than a school in the ACC as currently constituted. With 11 years remaining on the ACC deal at that point, it’s nearly a break-even proposition with a brighter future on the back end."

LINK: The Florida State-ACC negotiation will set the terms for more college football realignment

If it's only $350m then FSU would be writing a check today. The Wake Forests of the world will just be sitting back, counting their additional dollars:

$350m over 10 years = $35m per year

if 1 school leaves that's 16 schools left
$35m/16 = $2.2m per year per left behind school

2 schools leavge that's 15 schools left
$70m/15 = 4.67m per year per left behind school

3 schools leave that's 14 left
$105m/14 = $7.5m per year per left behind school for a decade

My guess is that the ACC is on very firm legal ground but they settle at something closer to $700m, so $4.4m per left behind school for a decade. Keep doubling each number, if 3 schools end up paying that gargantuan buyout then that's an extra $15m per year per left behind member, quite a nice parting gift, and quite possibly enough to persuade UNC to stick around at least until 2036. Unlike Miami, FSU, or Clemson, a basketball school like UNC would be unlikely to see a huge boost in booster donations from joining either of the P2, so their only benefit, or most of their benefit, would be from the delta between what the ACC was paying and what the P2 was paying. Even assuming a very extreme $40m avg delta between now and 2036 on the current ACC deal, and making the reasonable assumption that any move would actually happen in 2026 instead of 2025:

$15m extra per year from the 3 departing schools drops thatt down to 40-15 = 25m per year

10 years x 25m/yr = $250m
cost to exit = $700m

$700m-$250m = $450m net loss in revenue over a decade, so a $45m revenue loss per year for a decade to go to Conference that you don't control that isn't any better at basketball. Oh, and you don't play Duke 2-3 times per year anymore, maybe once now, and you probably have some sort of Carolinamony that you're paying to NC St every year, too.

Hmmm, looking at that, even $350m exit fee might be enough to get UNC to stay. $500m is definitely enough.

For the left behinds to gain all the above $$ TV deal per school would have to remain flat. If you lose FSU, NC, and 2 to 4 more off the top, The ACC won't be worth the current $$ from ESPN.

ESPN is contractually required to pay the ACC as long as they have 14 football members. The thinking is that the 3 adds last year were to pre-backfill in case a few schools decided to do what FSU has done, thus keeping the ACC deal with ESPN intact until 2036. I'm not sure how many the ACC would need to lose to get ESPN to walk away from the ACCN in 2027, but it's more than 2.

That's what we have heard, but nobody has actually seen the wording in the contract. And ESPN has that option for 2027 which presumably is the whole contract, not just the ACCN, but again, nobody has actually seen the contract.

It’s also very convenient that this model was approved first before a CFP contract extension. The G5 have gotten nothing in writing. While they will certainly get at least one bid regardless post ‘25, seems like they were content with that and nothing more.

(02-20-2024 05:54 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  It’s also very convenient that this model was approved first before a CFP contract extension. The G5 have gotten nothing in writing. While they will certainly get at least one bid regardless post ‘25, seems like they were content with that and nothing more.

Where is that guaranteed? If there is a breakaway post 2025 they will have the CFP to themselves, but the breakaway will have their own playoff.

I don't think Clemson or Miami are wanted anymore. Clemson is now in their downfall as a power football team, and Miami have been playing weak like a G5 school, and they don't have their own football stadium. I read that UCF might have moved ahead of Miami on the wish list, and now with USF building an on campus stadium and being a AAU? They might be on the Big 10 wish list ahead of Miami.