Here's what I think is going on/is what will go down:

Paulsen wants Dane at Holy Cross, we want Dane at Holy Cross. We couldn't reach a deal last year with HC as a two year buyout is too expensive but this year both schools can reach a deal so we don't have to payout the full contract and they don't have to buy out the difference. Mann had to say positive things after last season so he wouldn't completely lose the Tribe faithful prematurely. Paulsen wants Noah and Dane wants to bring Noah with him to HC. Medical redshirt and he brings him with an extra year of eligibility, hence no Noah this year. Jack gets injured when it's been determined we're not even as good as last year, Dane agrees to let Jack medical redshirt, whether it's to come with him or not, it's due to Dane knowing he's already heading to HC.

I think the season will end and Dane to HC will be announced pretty quickly.

(02-11-2024 01:11 PM)W+M4TW Wrote:  Here's what I think is going on/is what will go down:

Paulsen wants Dane at Holy Cross, we want Dane at Holy Cross. We couldn't reach a deal last year with HC as a two year buyout is too expensive but this year both schools can reach a deal so we don't have to payout the full contract and they don't have to buy out the difference. Mann had to say positive things after last season so he wouldn't completely lose the Tribe faithful prematurely. Paulsen wants Noah and Dane wants to bring Noah with him to HC. Medical redshirt and he brings him with an extra year of eligibility, hence no Noah this year. Jack gets injured when it's been determined we're not even as good as last year, Dane agrees to let Jack medical redshirt, whether it's to come with him or not, it's due to Dane knowing he's already heading to HC.

I think the season will end and Dane to HC will be announced pretty quickly.

Interesting thoughts and a plausible course. I wonder how the administration is positioning themselves should this scenario play out.


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(02-11-2024 12:30 PM)mrjoolius Wrote:  

(02-11-2024 12:23 PM)Zorch Wrote:  So here's my question: wasn't it only having 7 scholarship players that allowed Delaware to wimp out of our game several years ago? It would have been sweet justice to deprive Delaware out of an important win this year if we had backed out of the game.

The difference is we allowed it to happen. Delaware pleaded hardship, and we accommodated. Guarenteed if we called UD and asked, they'd reply "sorry, you need to man up"

Another example of, as Mr. Ribe penned, a University for the Bowled.

All I'll add to this proposed scenario. No way in hell Holy Cross is interested in paying any sort of payout to us for an assistant coach. Not happening. Sure, Dane could head to HC, do us a solid, and perhaps his salary as an assistant might slightly offset what we pay. What will likely happen is he will get fired, take a year off and get fully paid by us, and then head over to HC and get a lead assistant gig. Best way for him to maximize his coaching income and allows an entire year to set himself up for his next landing spot.

(02-11-2024 01:29 PM)mrjoolius Wrote:  All I'll add to this proposed scenario. No way in hell Holy Cross is interested in paying any sort of payout to us for an assistant coach. Not happening. Sure, Dane could head to HC, do us a solid, and perhaps his salary as an assistant might slightly offset what we pay. What will likely happen is he will get fired, take a year off and get fully paid by us, and then head over to HC and get a lead assistant gig. Best way for him to maximize his coaching income and allows an entire year to set himself up for his next landing spot.

I have not seen Dane’s contract but Tony’s allowed us to offset our payout for any income he got for coaching elsewhere. Would guess Dane’s works the same way. Taking a position at Holly Cross would offset our buyout if fired.


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(02-11-2024 01:39 PM)wmmii Wrote:  I have not seen Dane’s contract but Tony’s allowed us to offset our payout for any income he got for coaching elsewhere. Would guess Dane’s works the same way. Taking a position at Holly Cross would offset our buyout if fired.

I'm sure there is offsetting language in Dane's contract. I'm just not seeing him being in any rush to jump back in as an assistant. Any spot Paulsen potentially has for him next year will still be there in two. Plus hes got a year to politic and get a lay of the land to potentially get on the staff of a new head coaches staff to guarentee 4 years of employment. I see him taking the year off on w&ms dime and enjoying time and trips with his family.

(02-11-2024 01:11 PM)LeadBolt Wrote:  IMHO, firing Shaver was a knee jerk reaction to the loss to Delaware early in the 2019 CAA tournament.

I could see Huge from where I sat across the court from her during that game. She really enjoyed the first half when things were going W&M’s way. The second half not so much.

I was also at that game and I sat across from Huge (albeit I was in the front row of the upper deck (very good seats, by the way)). I vividly remember how Huge and Rowe were carrying on like sorority sisters, like bff's. It was appallingly unprofessional. I lost a lot of respect for Rowe that day (of what little I had, although I gave her a lot of the benefit of the doubt early on).

(02-11-2024 01:11 PM)W+M4TW Wrote:  Here's what I think is going on/is what will go down:

Paulsen wants Dane at Holy Cross, we want Dane at Holy Cross. We couldn't reach a deal last year with HC as a two year buyout is too expensive but this year both schools can reach a deal so we don't have to payout the full contract and they don't have to buy out the difference. Mann had to say positive things after last season so he wouldn't completely lose the Tribe faithful prematurely. Paulsen wants Noah and Dane wants to bring Noah with him to HC. Medical redshirt and he brings him with an extra year of eligibility, hence no Noah this year. Jack gets injured when it's been determined we're not even as good as last year, Dane agrees to let Jack medical redshirt, whether it's to come with him or not, it's due to Dane knowing he's already heading to HC.

I think the season will end and Dane to HC will be announced pretty quickly.

I don't know anything about Holy Cross or any other potential job offers for Fischer....but it does make sense that Mann knows that Fischer is gone -- either because Fischer voluntarily leaves or because Mann knows that he is going to fire him -- because that, in combination with Shaver's contract ending, would explain why Mann and the Athletic Department suddenly have enough funds to be able to pay a new Deputy Athletic Director.

(02-11-2024 01:11 PM)W+M4TW Wrote:  Here's what I think is going on/is what will go down:

Paulsen wants Dane at Holy Cross, we want Dane at Holy Cross. We couldn't reach a deal last year with HC as a two year buyout is too expensive but this year both schools can reach a deal so we don't have to payout the full contract and they don't have to buy out the difference. Mann had to say positive things after last season so he wouldn't completely lose the Tribe faithful prematurely. Paulsen wants Noah and Dane wants to bring Noah with him to HC. Medical redshirt and he brings him with an extra year of eligibility, hence no Noah this year. Jack gets injured when it's been determined we're not even as good as last year, Dane agrees to let Jack medical redshirt, whether it's to come with him or not, it's due to Dane knowing he's already heading to HC.

I think the season will end and Dane to HC will be announced pretty quickly.

Why would any current player want to follow Dane anywhere?? He’s only had one player he recruited from high school to make it 4 years in the program (Wight). I guess you can’t count Jake as well but unfortunately with his history of injuries his chance to find a new home elsewhere was limited.

Bottom line, if Mann doesn’t move on he really is letting the entire program burn to the ground and he needs to be under the fire going forward.

(02-11-2024 01:57 PM)mrjoolius Wrote:  …to potentially get on the staff of a new head coaches staff to guarentee 4 years of employment. …

No new coach has a guaranteed 4 years of employment anymore….except maybe at W&M.

(A coach might have guaranteed PAY for 4 years but not necessarily actual employment).

Dane and Paulsen got Muscala to the NBA from the Patriot league and Dane (not deservedly, but nonetheless) gets to claim a part of Knight-they have a decent track record on big men. I also think Noah likes Dane and vice versa.

Re: Buyout. I'm not talking anywhere near the full amount, maybe just our payout is reduced by salary. But I could see us asking HC to take on 20-30k as part of the deal and them reasonably agreeing-they'll have turnover after this season and getting a proven assistant with head coaching experience could mean they justify overpaying for Dane and cut cost with a greener assistant elsewhere. Paulsen will only be in his second year, but he can reasonably make a case that Dane was part of his Bucknell success. Even if we only manage to get out of Dane's HC salary that still should be 100k off our payout which is a big deal.

Honestly watch it happen and HC gets the autobid from Pat next year. In fact, it probably will happen--if it goes down Noah might not be the only WM player to head there, prospects aren't good if you've been a part of/were recruited to a NET 300 team.

Wight was recruited by Kemp to go to Ohio. When the head at Ohio was let go so was Kemp. Kemp brought Wight to W&M, not Fischer. Same thing with Minnesota. Loewe followed him there for grad school.

(02-11-2024 03:07 PM)W+M4TW Wrote:  Dane and Paulsen got Muscala to the NBA from the Patriot league and Dane (not deservedly, but nonetheless) gets to claim a part of Knight-they have a decent track record on big men. I also think Noah likes Dane and vice versa.

Re: Buyout. I'm not talking anywhere near the full amount, maybe just our payout is reduced by salary. But I could see us asking HC to take on 20-30k as part of the deal and them reasonably agreeing-they'll have turnover after this season and getting a proven assistant with head coaching experience could mean they justify overpaying for Dane and cut cost with a greener assistant elsewhere. Paulsen will only be in his second year, but he can reasonably make a case that Dane was part of his Bucknell success. Even if we only manage to get out of Dane's HC salary that still should be 100k off our payout which is a big deal.

Honestly watch it happen and HC gets the autobid from Pat next year. In fact, it probably will happen--if it goes down Noah might not be the only WM player to head there, prospects aren't good if you've been a part of/were recruited to a NET 300 team.

I don't mean this to be pointed comment towards you, but it sounds as though you are out of touch with the state of current basketball. Paulson, Shaver, and Dane can take any credit they want for Knight or Muscala. But In the age of care free transferring and NIL, neither would have stayed at W&M or Bucknell past their sophomore years. Allegiance to Dane? Perhaps if there is no $ on the table. Does Holy Cross have an established NIL program? Most productive mid major programs do. I'm not sure Holy Cross is one of them. Without it, retaining current players and attracting the most desired transfers is difficult.
At W&M, we can attract certain transfers with our business school. But, it's hard to convince any kid, no matter how much they want to attend W&M, to pick us when school B is offering $15k to go there. I think all of us can remember how broke we were as college students. Impossible to turn that down IMO.

(02-11-2024 05:01 PM)Tribe32 Wrote:  Wight was recruited by Kemp to go to Ohio. When the head at Ohio was let go so was Kemp. Kemp brought Wight to W&M, not Fischer. Same thing with Minnesota. Loewe followed him there for grad school.

You just made my point for me. I don’t think any kid would leave W&M and follow Dane if he was let go and landed on another staff as the post above suggested .

(02-11-2024 05:20 PM)Touchdown Green and Gold Wrote:  

(02-11-2024 05:01 PM)Tribe32 Wrote:  Wight was recruited by Kemp to go to Ohio. When the head at Ohio was let go so was Kemp. Kemp brought Wight to W&M, not Fischer. Same thing with Minnesota. Loewe followed him there for grad school.

You just made my point for me. I don’t think any kid would leave W&M and follow Dane if he was let go and landed on another staff as the post above suggested .

I agree with this. If Dane is fired, some might leave and some might stay. I doubt where Dane lands is their focus. Even if the kids like Dane, the years of losing can't be fun. I'm sure most would want a fresh start.

(02-11-2024 01:57 PM)mrjoolius Wrote:  

(02-11-2024 01:39 PM)wmmii Wrote:  I have not seen Dane’s contract but Tony’s allowed us to offset our payout for any income he got for coaching elsewhere. Would guess Dane’s works the same way. Taking a position at Holly Cross would offset our buyout if fired.

I'm sure there is offsetting language in Dane's contract. I'm just not seeing him being in any rush to jump back in as an assistant. Any spot Paulsen potentially has for him next year will still be there in two. Plus hes got a year to politic and get a lay of the land to potentially get on the staff of a new head coaches staff to guarentee 4 years of employment. I see him taking the year off on w&ms dime and enjoying time and trips with his family.

I agree


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(02-11-2024 05:33 PM)mrjoolius Wrote:  

(02-11-2024 05:20 PM)Touchdown Green and Gold Wrote:  

(02-11-2024 05:01 PM)Tribe32 Wrote:  Wight was recruited by Kemp to go to Ohio. When the head at Ohio was let go so was Kemp. Kemp brought Wight to W&M, not Fischer. Same thing with Minnesota. Loewe followed him there for grad school.

You just made my point for me. I don’t think any kid would leave W&M and follow Dane if he was let go and landed on another staff as the post above suggested .

I agree with this. If Dane is fired, some might leave and some might stay. I doubt where Dane lands is their focus. Even if the kids like Dane, the years of losing can't be fun. I'm sure most would want a fresh start.

For W&M players, that fresh start might just be wishful thinking. Per NCAA statistics, almost 1/3 of the men's college basketball players who entered the portal in 2022 did not get another D1 scholarship offer. W&M is one of the worst D1 hoops teams. If a kid can't make a difference on our team, why would he think there's another D1 school out there willing to offer him a scholarship?

(02-12-2024 07:44 AM)TribeFan1983 Wrote:  For W&M players, that fresh start might just be wishful thinking. Per NCAA statistics, almost 1/3 of the men's college basketball players who entered the portal in 2022 did not get another D1 scholarship offer. W&M is one of the worst D1 hoops teams. If a kid can't make a difference on our team, why would he think there's another D1 school out there willing to offer him a scholarship?

I think that's a little bit simplistic way to look at it. I think we have talent on this roster. You identify the right kid for your system, establish a clear role, & coach them up, then why couldn't there be interest from other D1 programs? No guarentee, but assuming a kid from a poor team couldn't excel in a different situation is short sighted.

We are a terrible team in a pretty good conference. Our players would play quite a bit in lesser conferences.

To Mr. J's point: I agree that today's world is different, but I'd reiterate what others are saying about the state of our team. These guys chose to come to a bad program. Our recruits who left who were recruited when we weren't in a sorry state (Kochera, Wight, Covington, Lewis) have found varied results, the only one who is doing well at a better program is Kochera. Our current guys aren't going to find money or playing time at anywhere better, and may even struggle to find another program that will take them. Speaking of outdated models...Noah is a classic 4 that plays as a 5 with limited to no ability to stretch. Dane and Paulsen love that type of player (no one else does in today's game....maybe there's a reason Dane and Paulsen have losing teams...). Jack doesn't have the shooting percentages or playing time to pitch to another team. Gabe, Case, and Moss have something to offer but each have huge holes in their game and they've already tried playing in a higher league and had to drop down. I'm not trying to trash our team, I just suspect a) there might not be as massive an exodus as some seem to suggest and b) the best of the departures may end up still in the CAA as it's about the best they can do (Lowe, Moss, Gabe) and others will be lower or struggle to find another home without Dane's help--and Dane will push Holy Cross and American since those are where his connections are.

We/our team are just not at a level where NIL has an impact and none of our players are either.

(02-12-2024 10:39 AM)W+M4TW Wrote:  We/our team are just not at a level where NIL has an impact and none of our players are either.

You'd be surprised about how much I've heard some of our conference mates pay