(09-01-2023 07:26 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 07:20 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  I hope no MWC schools are dumb enough to fall for this charade. All they have to do is remain united and ultimately OSU and WSU will have to agree to work with them as a group.

Normally I wouldn't have any confidence in any group of schools to work together for their common interest -- history has shown that conference realignment doesn't work that way -- but Nevarez is a smart commissioner and if anyone can successfully herd the cats it's probably her.

Not true, the AAC would have them. However, they told Aresco "no" already. Nevarez still has some hope of an amicable merger rather than an actual raid, but the AAC is losing schools if WOSU want any of them.

But how much more a year would OSU, WSU, w/ 6 MWC and 4 AAC schools get, than the AAC? I don't think it would be enough to have any of them pay the fee and move.

(09-01-2023 07:20 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  I hope no MWC schools are dumb enough to fall for this charade. All they have to do is remain united and ultimately OSU and WSU will have to agree to work with them as a group.

Normally I wouldn't have any confidence in any group of schools to work together for their common interest -- history has shown that conference realignment doesn't work that way -- but Nevarez is a smart commissioner and if anyone can successfully herd the cats it's probably her.

I don't think there are 6 schools willing to pay $15 to $17M minimum to create a best of the rest for 2024. Who is gunna provide a return on that investment?

(09-01-2023 07:13 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 07:00 PM)LatahCounty Wrote:  You guys are way too pessimistic about the continued existence of a PAC. If there's any lesson from 60 years of realignment, it's that colleges live for excuses to separate themselves from "lesser" schools. This is another opportunity to do that. Schools will take it.

They get a 2 year grace period. They don't even have to be a real conference until 2026. They'll figure it out.

They have no TV deal at all and have a grand total of 4 games on their schedules for next year. Time is running out fast. Are they going to play each other 5-6 times a season and have no TV deal at all for 2 years? That’s silly stuff.

Yeah its over.

A PAC w/ Stanford, Cal and WSU, OSU could pull off a rebuild but not just WSU/OSU.

I guess the want all possible doors shut in their face beforehand lol.

(09-01-2023 07:26 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 07:20 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  I hope no MWC schools are dumb enough to fall for this charade. All they have to do is remain united and ultimately OSU and WSU will have to agree to work with them as a group.

Normally I wouldn't have any confidence in any group of schools to work together for their common interest -- history has shown that conference realignment doesn't work that way -- but Nevarez is a smart commissioner and if anyone can successfully herd the cats it's probably her.

Not true, the AAC would have them. However, they told Aresco "no" already. Nevarez still has some hope of an amicable merger rather than an actual raid, but the AAC is losing schools if WOSU want any of them.

I think it was the AAC which considered it with Cal & Stan but officially said no when it was just WSU/OSU.

If there is anything left on the table it might be a PAC-16 or PAC-18 with a few AAC schools since AAC western expansion isn't happening.

(09-01-2023 06:29 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Not surprising they would try that first. Its the most profitable option for those two schools. Schools always do what is in their own best interests. The issue is whether they can find 6 schools willing to pay exit fees to move. Maybe they have figured out a way to help with that exit fee expense.

Not surprising. But remember, these are the people who fed Canzano all that nonsense over the last year.

(09-01-2023 07:00 PM)LatahCounty Wrote:  You guys are way too pessimistic about the continued existence of a PAC. If there's any lesson from 60 years of realignment, it's that colleges live for excuses to separate themselves from "lesser" schools. This is another opportunity to do that. Schools will take it.

They get a 2 year grace period. They don't even have to be a real conference until 2026. They'll figure it out.

WSU and OSU are lesser schools academically to many in the AAC.

(09-01-2023 07:13 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 07:00 PM)LatahCounty Wrote:  You guys are way too pessimistic about the continued existence of a PAC. If there's any lesson from 60 years of realignment, it's that colleges live for excuses to separate themselves from "lesser" schools. This is another opportunity to do that. Schools will take it.

They get a 2 year grace period. They don't even have to be a real conference until 2026. They'll figure it out.

They have no TV deal at all and have a grand total of 4 games on their schedules for next year. Time is running out fast. Are they going to play each other 5-6 times a season and have no TV deal at all for 2 years? That’s silly stuff.

Several times in the past decade or so, a school has had to slap together a hasty indy schedule on short notice. Every time it happens, a chorus on this board screams "THEY'LL NEVER GET A SCHEDULE TOGETHER!!!!!!!"

And then they do. The schedule usually sucks, but it's 12 FBS-compliant games. If UConn can do it, and NMSU can do it, and Liberty can do it, then so can Wazzu and OSU. If it's a bridge to 2026, they'll figure it out.

Or they'll figure out how to buy some MWC/AAC schools in early for this project. Probably both.

(09-01-2023 06:29 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Not surprising they would try that first. Its the most profitable option for those two schools. Schools always do what is in their own best interests. The issue is whether they can find 6 schools willing to pay exit fees to move. Maybe they have figured out a way to help with that exit fee expense.

This will end with a reverse merger, with the MWC schools joining the Pac-2 schools and dissolving the MWC or the Pac-2 schools joining the MWC, dissolving the PAC. One western FBS conference is done. No school is going to pay exit fees to join the Pac-2. The merger seems to make the most sense for Oregon State and Washington State, because they would own the PAC assets. Either way, Gloria Nevarez will be the next commissioner of the Western FBS Conference.

(09-01-2023 07:12 PM)AuzGrams Wrote:  PAC
Washington State
Oregon State
Boise State
Fresno State
San Diego State
Air Force
Tulane
UTSA
Rice
UNLV

AAC
USF
FAU
UAB
Memphis
East Carolina
Charlotte
North Texas
Tulsa
South Florida
Temple
Navy (FB only)
Army (FB only)

MWC
San Jose State
Nevada
Utah State
Wyoming
Colorado State
New Mexico
New Mexico State
UTEP
Hawaii (FB only)

C-USA
Sam Houston State
Louisiana Tech
WKU
EKU (FCS to FBS)
MTSU
Jacksonville State
Kennesaw State
FIU
Liberty

I would invite Colorado State and New Mexico to AAC.

(09-01-2023 07:53 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 07:00 PM)LatahCounty Wrote:  You guys are way too pessimistic about the continued existence of a PAC. If there's any lesson from 60 years of realignment, it's that colleges live for excuses to separate themselves from "lesser" schools. This is another opportunity to do that. Schools will take it.

They get a 2 year grace period. They don't even have to be a real conference until 2026. They'll figure it out.

WSU and OSU are lesser schools academically to many in the AAC.

Sure, but those AAC schools also believe many other AAC schools are "lesser" than them, and this way they get to reshuffle and pick who they want.

(09-01-2023 06:42 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 06:29 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Not surprising they would try that first. Its the most profitable option for those two schools. Schools always do what is in their own best interests. The issue is whether they can find 6 schools willing to pay exit fees to move. Maybe they have figured out a way to help with that exit fee expense.

Problem is, helping to pay for those exit fees will absorb a very large chunk of the money they hope to make from the Pac-12.

No, exit fee assistance would come out of this years' PAC-12 budget. There's no way for OSU and WSU to tap into that money -- if they don't spend it, it goes to the departing schools.

Quote:I estimate it'd cost around $200M in exit fees for four schools from each conference to join a rebuild Pac-12 with OSU and WSU. OSU and WSU are probably looking at $65M in distributions to themselves, which is considerably less, and it's spread over 6 years, diminishing as it goes.

It's really hard for me to envision a media provider will to commit to $750M to pay ten G5 schools $12M a year for 6 years. That value isn't there. That media provider isn't there.

These schools will have to abandon this project in a month or so.

That's very likely true.

WSU and OSU could also have noncompliant 2024 schedules. They'd get a letter from the NCAA warning them not to do it again, throw it in the garbage, and move on with their lives. 2024 is not as big a problem as people are making it out to be.

If you're Boise, SDSU or Fresno It's worth it to get away from the dregs.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

(09-01-2023 08:12 PM)LatahCounty Wrote:  WSU and OSU could also have noncompliant 2024 schedules. They'd get a letter from the NCAA warning them not to do it again, throw it in the garbage, and move on with their lives. 2024 is not as big a problem as people are making it out to be.

I agree

Per the Athletic article
https://theathletic.com/4826750/2023/09/...ed-article

That PAC shell is due so much money

$80M per season with the last 2 years of their separate Rose Bowl contract

$79.4M per season in the last 2 years of the CFP deal

$90M over the next 6 seasons ($15M per season) in NCAA tournament credits

$80 + $79.4 + $15 = $174.4M
Divide that by two each school would get $87.2M by operating as a two team conference and getting every last dime you can

I mean that's a big incentive to say screw you to everyone and utilize that 2 year waiver

(09-01-2023 08:07 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 06:42 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 06:29 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Not surprising they would try that first. Its the most profitable option for those two schools. Schools always do what is in their own best interests. The issue is whether they can find 6 schools willing to pay exit fees to move. Maybe they have figured out a way to help with that exit fee expense.

Problem is, helping to pay for those exit fees will absorb a very large chunk of the money they hope to make from the Pac-12.

No, exit fee assistance would come out of this years' PAC-12 budget. There's no way for OSU and WSU to tap into that money -- if they don't spend it, it goes to the departing schools.

Wrong. There is no exit fee from the Pac-12. Schools must be paid their full distributions. None of the exiting schools will allow any withholding, as that would be a breach of contract. Only expenses, like the comcast settlement, will be withheld.

This is a basic fallacy you and others have, that there is some stashed expansion fund in the Pac-12, or that Oregon State and Washington State have some power to retroactively change the byLaws to lay claims to money which is not theirs in order to pay for expansion that benefits them only. Not going to happen, cannot happen, and is illegal, as in theft or fraud to do so. Remember NCAA rules require conferences to be pass throughs. Any withholdings, such as exit fees, must be set up contractually with the members, something which the Pac-12 never did.

Much of the value of the Pac-12 is in depreciating physical assets (studio in Pleasanton, office furniture, etc), monies set aside for employee pensions (the office staff), and a maybe a small rainy day fund. But there are also liabilities.

I have no idea where you get the idea money exists to pay exit fees. I guess OSU and WSU could forego their 2023-24 distributions to help, but I doubt it, as they have alreadt budgeted this year assuming those monies.

(09-01-2023 07:54 PM)LatahCounty Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 07:13 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 07:00 PM)LatahCounty Wrote:  You guys are way too pessimistic about the continued existence of a PAC. If there's any lesson from 60 years of realignment, it's that colleges live for excuses to separate themselves from "lesser" schools. This is another opportunity to do that. Schools will take it.

They get a 2 year grace period. They don't even have to be a real conference until 2026. They'll figure it out.

They have no TV deal at all and have a grand total of 4 games on their schedules for next year. Time is running out fast. Are they going to play each other 5-6 times a season and have no TV deal at all for 2 years? That’s silly stuff.

Several times in the past decade or so, a school has had to slap together a hasty indy schedule on short notice. Every time it happens, a chorus on this board screams "THEY'LL NEVER GET A SCHEDULE TOGETHER!!!!!!!"

And then they do. The schedule usually sucks, but it's 12 FBS-compliant games. If UConn can do it, and NMSU can do it, and Liberty can do it, then so can Wazzu and OSU. If it's a bridge to 2026, they'll figure it out.

NMSU and Liberty had two years, OSU and Wazzu have less than 12 months. UConn is a better example, they had 12 months to put a schedule together, and I was very skeptical that they'd pull it off.

Looking back at CSNBBS threads, they had 9 games announced by the end of October, with a mystery ACC game that they couldn't announce yet.

If that Athletic article is accurate WSU and OSU would find it worthwhile just to play each other as much as needed to fill in the gaps

I did not realize there was no exit fee for the PAC schools. Silly me thought if MWC and AAC made it impossible to leave, the PAC had to be protected like Big 12 and ACC.


OSU and WSU take the MWC offer it comes. Or you will wind up like UMASS and UCONN.

Now the question. If PAC folds in 2024, what happens to the PAC CFP Money. Could see it split 5 ways P4 get 20% each and G5 spilt the remaining at 5% each for the last two years of the CFP.

(09-01-2023 06:42 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 06:29 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Not surprising they would try that first. Its the most profitable option for those two schools. Schools always do what is in their own best interests. The issue is whether they can find 6 schools willing to pay exit fees to move. Maybe they have figured out a way to help with that exit fee expense.

Problem is, helping to pay for those exit fees will absorb a very large chunk of the money they hope to make from the Pac-12.

I estimate it'd cost around $200M in exit fees for four schools from each conference to join a rebuild Pac-12 with OSU and WSU. OSU and WSU are probably looking at $65M in distributions to themselves, which is considerably less, and it's spread over 6 years, diminishing as it goes.

It's really hard for me to envision a media provider will to commit to $750M to pay ten G5 schools $12M a year for 6 years. That value isn't there. That media provider isn't there.

That's a good point especially with ESPN cuts.

AAC I thought was the best shot and they didn't see the numbers in it.

(09-01-2023 08:27 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 07:54 PM)LatahCounty Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 07:13 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(09-01-2023 07:00 PM)LatahCounty Wrote:  You guys are way too pessimistic about the continued existence of a PAC. If there's any lesson from 60 years of realignment, it's that colleges live for excuses to separate themselves from "lesser" schools. This is another opportunity to do that. Schools will take it.

They get a 2 year grace period. They don't even have to be a real conference until 2026. They'll figure it out.

They have no TV deal at all and have a grand total of 4 games on their schedules for next year. Time is running out fast. Are they going to play each other 5-6 times a season and have no TV deal at all for 2 years? That’s silly stuff.

Several times in the past decade or so, a school has had to slap together a hasty indy schedule on short notice. Every time it happens, a chorus on this board screams "THEY'LL NEVER GET A SCHEDULE TOGETHER!!!!!!!"

And then they do. The schedule usually sucks, but it's 12 FBS-compliant games. If UConn can do it, and NMSU can do it, and Liberty can do it, then so can Wazzu and OSU. If it's a bridge to 2026, they'll figure it out.

NMSU and Liberty had two years, OSU and Wazzu have less than 12 months. UConn is a better example, they had 12 months to put a schedule together, and I was very skeptical that they'd pull it off.

Looking back at CSNBBS threads, they had 9 games announced by the end of October, with a mystery ACC game that they couldn't announce yet.

I'd argue they'd have a much easier time than UConn. For one thing, they can play each other. Twice. For another, they'd only go that route if they were reasonably confident they have schools moving in to join them in 2025 or later. One would think those incoming schools would do what they move dates to accommodate their future conference mates for 2024. Only so many more dates to fill.

Or, again, just don't play an FBS-compliant 2024 schedule.