See, now that's what a bad loss looks like.

(12-13-2022 11:52 PM)MUther Wrote:  See, now that's what a bad loss looks like.

Don't worry, Texas State made sure no one even noticed your loss.

(12-13-2022 11:47 PM)lcitsh Wrote:  

(12-13-2022 06:11 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  

(12-13-2022 11:31 AM)rileylives Wrote:  

(12-13-2022 11:21 AM)Stat Geek Wrote:  

(12-13-2022 10:00 AM)rileylives Wrote:  Marshall is not a fluke. We are getting it done in a dominant fashion against those teams.

Here are some of the categories Marshall stand out in nationally in the NCAA.

27th scoring offense
7th assist/turnover ratio
7th assists per game
14th blocks per game
44th field goal % defense
33rd steals per game

We arguably have the best backcourt in the league, Taevion Kinsey once again averaging over 20 points a game, a veteran point guard controlling the tempo, a 7-1 Freshman center averaging over 10 rebounds a game, blocking shots, creating havoc, a team D putting a lot of pressure with steals and blocks, and enough depth.

Again, watch this Marshall team play, as others have said, it might be our best team since 2018, and some say maybe even better than that.

The point is they might be. They just don't play anyone in the regular season to prove that they are legitimate.

Here are the KenPom rankings for Marshall under D'Antoni starting in 2015:

261
147
149
105
157
143
92
238
88 (2022/2023)

I think it is safe to speculate that this could be the best team he's had. That doesn't seem controversial. We will know more if they get in any post season tournaments.

I've never been a fan of KenPom I don't get people's fascination with it. And to say that the 2018 team was only 105, just speaks to the absurdity of it.

That was the team that took down Wichita State in the NCAA tournament.

But getting back to this current team, the eyeball test will prove they are legit.

I am and I do. It isn't a fascination though, it is a great approximation of reality. Predictive.

Why would you want the approximation when the real thing is available?

Net Rankings are not reality. Win Loss records are not reality. Kenpom IS the real thing. Did you see the Marshall result Tuesday night?

(12-14-2022 03:09 AM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  

(12-13-2022 11:47 PM)lcitsh Wrote:  

(12-13-2022 06:11 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  

(12-13-2022 11:31 AM)rileylives Wrote:  

(12-13-2022 11:21 AM)Stat Geek Wrote:  The point is they might be. They just don't play anyone in the regular season to prove that they are legitimate.

Here are the KenPom rankings for Marshall under D'Antoni starting in 2015:

261
147
149
105
157
143
92
238
88 (2022/2023)

I think it is safe to speculate that this could be the best team he's had. That doesn't seem controversial. We will know more if they get in any post season tournaments.

I've never been a fan of KenPom I don't get people's fascination with it. And to say that the 2018 team was only 105, just speaks to the absurdity of it.

That was the team that took down Wichita State in the NCAA tournament.

But getting back to this current team, the eyeball test will prove they are legit.

I am and I do. It isn't a fascination though, it is a great approximation of reality. Predictive.

Why would you want the approximation when the real thing is available?

Net Rankings are not reality. Win Loss records are not reality. Kenpom IS the real thing. Did you see the Marshall result Tuesday night?

I did, and what I saw was a road weary team out of legs. That was our third road game in five nights, we definitely played sluggish and not our typical brand of basketball.

I think that was a good loss for us in the sense now maybe we wake up a little bit, and don't take anything for granted.

That's the hope at least. I am thankful that Southern Miss continues to look strong.

(12-14-2022 03:09 AM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  

(12-13-2022 11:47 PM)lcitsh Wrote:  

(12-13-2022 06:11 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  

(12-13-2022 11:31 AM)rileylives Wrote:  

(12-13-2022 11:21 AM)Stat Geek Wrote:  The point is they might be. They just don't play anyone in the regular season to prove that they are legitimate.

Here are the KenPom rankings for Marshall under D'Antoni starting in 2015:

261
147
149
105
157
143
92
238
88 (2022/2023)

I think it is safe to speculate that this could be the best team he's had. That doesn't seem controversial. We will know more if they get in any post season tournaments.

I've never been a fan of KenPom I don't get people's fascination with it. And to say that the 2018 team was only 105, just speaks to the absurdity of it.

That was the team that took down Wichita State in the NCAA tournament.

But getting back to this current team, the eyeball test will prove they are legit.

I am and I do. It isn't a fascination though, it is a great approximation of reality. Predictive.

Why would you want the approximation when the real thing is available?

Net Rankings are not reality. Win Loss records are not reality. Kenpom IS the real thing. Did you see the Marshall result Tuesday night?

The NET rankings are the only reality because these are the only rankings the selection committee uses to choose the at-large teams for the NCAA tournaments, not KenPom, not Massey, not Warren Nolan.

Yes, I saw the Marshall result from Tuesday night. I also saw the Texas State result. One of those games will be factored into the NET rankings, the other will not. You may think that these rankings are designed to determine which teams are going to win on any given day, but that's not their purpose.

The last post was 100% correct.

Texas State only lost spots in the NET by a standard deviation from 213 to 215 in the rankings.

However, Marshall drops like a rock, from 43 to now 63 in the NET.

(12-14-2022 09:10 AM)lcitsh Wrote:  

(12-14-2022 03:09 AM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  

(12-13-2022 11:47 PM)lcitsh Wrote:  

(12-13-2022 06:11 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  

(12-13-2022 11:31 AM)rileylives Wrote:  I've never been a fan of KenPom I don't get people's fascination with it. And to say that the 2018 team was only 105, just speaks to the absurdity of it.

That was the team that took down Wichita State in the NCAA tournament.

But getting back to this current team, the eyeball test will prove they are legit.

I am and I do. It isn't a fascination though, it is a great approximation of reality. Predictive.

Why would you want the approximation when the real thing is available?

Net Rankings are not reality. Win Loss records are not reality. Kenpom IS the real thing. Did you see the Marshall result Tuesday night?

The NET rankings are the only reality because these are the only rankings the selection committee uses to choose the at-large teams for the NCAA tournaments, not KenPom, not Massey, not Warren Nolan.

Yes, I saw the Marshall result from Tuesday night. I also saw the Texas State result. One of those games will be factored into the NET rankings, the other will not. You may think that these rankings are designed to determine which teams are going to win on any given day, but that's not their purpose.

The committee with use Net Ratings only when it supports their argument. They will use something else when it suits their needs.

And Im not saying the committee is nefarious, but they aren't going to put 2 SunBelt teams in the tourney even if one of them has a decent Net Rating.

(12-14-2022 07:59 AM)rileylives Wrote:  

(12-14-2022 03:09 AM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  

(12-13-2022 11:47 PM)lcitsh Wrote:  

(12-13-2022 06:11 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  

(12-13-2022 11:31 AM)rileylives Wrote:  I've never been a fan of KenPom I don't get people's fascination with it. And to say that the 2018 team was only 105, just speaks to the absurdity of it.

That was the team that took down Wichita State in the NCAA tournament.

But getting back to this current team, the eyeball test will prove they are legit.

I am and I do. It isn't a fascination though, it is a great approximation of reality. Predictive.

Why would you want the approximation when the real thing is available?

Net Rankings are not reality. Win Loss records are not reality. Kenpom IS the real thing. Did you see the Marshall result Tuesday night?

I did, and what I saw was a road weary team out of legs. That was our third road game in five nights, we definitely played sluggish and not our typical brand of basketball.

I think that was a good loss for us in the sense now maybe we wake up a little bit, and don't take anything for granted.

That's the hope at least. I am thankful that Southern Miss continues to look strong.

UNC-G is a good example of how dumb Net rating is. They were 228 in Net Ratings. Granted, they aren't good, but a KenPom rating of 155 makes a 1000x more sense for UNC-G. And FWIW, Marshall dropped 5 spots to 93.

A loss to UNC-G is a heck of a lot better than a loss to Queens University.

None of them really mean that much right now, what matters is where we are at the end of the season. One area where NET definitely ends up meaning more though is in scheduling. No matter how much the committee actually uses it, it's the system that the committee officially says they use and so it's the system that schools will use when looking to schedule strong opponents and avoid weaker programs. That's why I'd rather see Marshall at #63 in NET and #93 in KenPom than the other way around.

An SBC team having a season good enough to get an at-large this year isn't impossible, but like Memphis to the SBC it's a massive long shot where it's fun to dream until it does become impossible. What's much more possible is enough improvement in our NET rankings to start getting much better OOC games, especially at home, and start working our way closer to at-large bids becoming a reality instead of a pipe dream that's fun to talk about in November and December.

SBC had a 16 seed last year. The goal is to always be better the next year. I don't think the winner of the conference will be getting a 16 seed this year. Unless ULM suddenly is fire at the end of the season. As long as the conference is better than last year that is what matters most.

16 seed during last two covid years aren't the norm. There were various factors from covid quarantines and cancelled games that destroyed resumes.

For better or worse, SBC has been typically a one bid league hovering 14th seed AQ.

Don't sleep on ULM!

(12-14-2022 05:48 PM)Eagleyed Wrote:  SBC had a 16 seed last year. The goal is to always be better the next year. I don't think the winner of the conference will be getting a 16 seed this year. Unless ULM suddenly is fire at the end of the season. As long as the conference is better than last year that is what matters most.

Lunardi currently has JMU the SBC Champ and a 13 seed in his 2023 Bracketology.

If end of season is what matters don't look at net rankings till then.

Many more predictive systems to guide your thinking. KP, T-Rank and Team Rankings will let you know pretty quick when your team is already dead in most cases.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/projections/standings/


  Tearm Rankings SBC 121422.JPG (Size: 80.74 KB / Downloads: 93)

(12-14-2022 09:10 AM)lcitsh Wrote:  

(12-14-2022 03:09 AM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  

(12-13-2022 11:47 PM)lcitsh Wrote:  

(12-13-2022 06:11 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  

(12-13-2022 11:31 AM)rileylives Wrote:  I've never been a fan of KenPom I don't get people's fascination with it. And to say that the 2018 team was only 105, just speaks to the absurdity of it.

That was the team that took down Wichita State in the NCAA tournament.

But getting back to this current team, the eyeball test will prove they are legit.

I am and I do. It isn't a fascination though, it is a great approximation of reality. Predictive.

Why would you want the approximation when the real thing is available?

Net Rankings are not reality. Win Loss records are not reality. Kenpom IS the real thing. Did you see the Marshall result Tuesday night?

The NET rankings are the only reality because these are the only rankings the selection committee uses to choose the at-large teams for the NCAA tournaments, not KenPom, not Massey, not Warren Nolan.

Yes, I saw the Marshall result from Tuesday night. I also saw the Texas State result. One of those games will be factored into the NET rankings, the other will not. You may think that these rankings are designed to determine which teams are going to win on any given day, but that's not their purpose.

It is the purpose of the ones I pay attention to . . .

(12-14-2022 07:00 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  If end of season is what matters don't look at net rankings till then.

Many more predictive systems to guide your thinking. KP, T-Rank and Team Rankings will let you know pretty quick when your team is already dead in most cases.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/projections/standings/

Wow those are some really nice win conference and win tournament percentages for the Dukes! I hope we can stay healthy enough to capitalize and make those projections a reality, but also I feel much better about our depth and ability to win despite some injuries than last year. I still think Molson is the guy we can least afford to lose though, he's our big Mr. Reliable in my opinion and if he goes down I'd be very worried about Morse and/or Freidel going cold at the wrong time. As long as Molson is there I trust him to keep us going in games where those guys go cold.

(12-14-2022 07:12 PM)KickItToScotty Wrote:  

(12-14-2022 07:00 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  If end of season is what matters don't look at net rankings till then.

Many more predictive systems to guide your thinking. KP, T-Rank and Team Rankings will let you know pretty quick when your team is already dead in most cases.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/projections/standings/

Wow those are some really nice win conference and win tournament percentages for the Dukes! I hope we can stay healthy enough to capitalize and make those projections a reality, but also I feel much better about our depth and ability to win despite some injuries than last year. I still think Molson is the guy we can least afford to lose though, he's our big Mr. Reliable in my opinion and if he goes down I'd be very worried about Morse and/or Freidel going cold at the wrong time. As long as Molson is there I trust him to keep us going in games where those guys go cold.

This one has Marshall winning it and JMU 2nd.

https://barttorvik.com/conf.php?conf=SB&year=2023