I originally posted this prediction in the "Lions Den" back on July 1st, and I am as confident in it now as I was then.
I expect the Monarchs to be really competitive this year, going 9-3 in the regular season. We have ten starters returning on offense. If Wolff had played a full season, I project (by simple interpolation) that he would have thrown for 3,234 yards and 18 TDs while completing 62.8% of his passes -- not a bad season for a starting quarterback. Blake Watson rushed for 1,112 yards and 8 TDs. Ali Jennings caught 62 passes for 1,066 yards, an average gain of 17.2 yards per catch and 5 TDs. (And that would have been even better if Wolff had been throwing all year.) Folks that’s good production, and it will only get better this year. We also have seven starters returning on defense with some transfer help coming for the secondary. Special teams should be good to go despite losing Nick Rice. Freshman Ethan Sanchez will battle for kicking duties with Dominik Soos, who has a big leg and handled kick-offs last year, while Ethan Duane will be back to handle the punting chores.
That’s the setup, and now here are the predictions. Caution: I am by nature optimistic, and while most predictions are for the Monarchs to have four to five wins, I think the “experts” have it very, very wrong. Don’t forget, I’m the guy that predicted five wins to end the season at 6-6 and a bowl game last year – and I was right.
9/2 vs. VIRGINIA TECH (2021 - 6-7) W (1-0)
This Friday night season opener on ESPNU should be a thriller. The Hokies were 6-6 in the regular season last year and got killed 54-10 by Maryland in the Pinstripe Bowl. They do have seven returning starters on defense. They also have two transfers competing for the QB position this year and have lost both of their leading receivers from 2021. I see Old Dominion matching up pretty strongly with Tech, and I believe the Monarchs are primed to pull off another home field upset of the Hokies on national television.
9/10 @ East Carolina (2021 - 7–5) W (2-0)
The Pirates will have seven starters back on both offense and defense, and these two teams appear to be pretty evenly matched. While Old Dominion finished the regular season last year at 6-6, East Carolina managed a winning season at 7-5 against a clearly more difficult schedule, and ESPN predicts 5-6 wins this year. Though the Pirates likely will be favored (but maybe not if the Monarchs start as strong as I think they will), I believe the Monarchs get the win and revenge for the ref-stolen interception in 2018.
9/17 @ Virginia (2021 - 6-6) W (3-0)
UVA only managed six wins last year despite quarterback Brennan Armstrong throwing for over 4,400 yards. Armstrong and his top three receivers will all be back. That’s the good news. The bad news – all six top offensive linemen are lost to graduation or the transfer portal. While the offense was productive last year, the defense was the polar opposite. I think there is too much to overcome on both sides of the ball to see UVA get more than six wins this year, and one of their losses will be to ODU. I almost called this a close loss for the Monarchs, but -- nah, I couldn't do it.
9/24 vs. Arkansas State (2021 – 2-10) W (4-0)
The Red Wolves were 2-9 last year and do not project to be much better this season. Coming to Norfolk will mark their third road trip in a row, following trips to Ohio State and Memphis. That stroke-of-genius scheduling should bode well for the home team. I see this game as a great way for the Monarchs to ease into the Sun Belt with our fourth win in as many weeks.
10/1 vs. Liberty (2021 – 8-5) L (4-1)
Quarterback Charlie Brewer had four pretty good years at Baylor before transferring to Utah, where he was benched after three games. Now at Liberty he has a solid chance to return to his Baylor form with a rebuilt O-line (two returning starters and three solid transfers) and two exceptional receivers in Demario Douglas and CJ Daniels. Douglas is scary good and is a threat to take it to the house every time he gets the ball (
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PiihoE4xUUA). I really want to pick the Monarchs to win this one, but surprise, I think Liberty comes into our house and steals the win.
10/15 vs. Coastal Carolina (2021 11-2) W (5-1)
Grayson McCall and his 71% completion percentage are back, but that’s very close to the end of the good news for the Chanticleers. Only two starters are returning on defense, and only five are returning on offense -- including McCall. ESPN projects seven to eight wins for Coastal, but I think that is a little optimistic given the rebuild they need this year, especially on defense. McCall will have his moments, but Hayden Wolff will put more points on the board. Sidenotes: (1) This game follows the bye week, and Coach Rahne will put this extra preparation time to good use, just like he did against LA Tech last year; (2) Wolff, Jennings and company will get a chance to burn former Monarch, Lance Boykin, who will be starting at cornerback for Coastal. (3) The offensive analyst for the Chants is ex-Monarch Shuler Bentley.
10/22 vs. Georgia Southern (2021 – 3-9) W (6-1)
To paraphrase an old TV commercial, this is not your father’s Georgia Southern Eagles. The triple option is now long gone, and wins were in short supply last year. The Eagles have eight offensive starters and six defensive starters returning – but that’s from a team that went 3-9 last season, and four of the returning starters on offense are on the O-line that was noticeably porous in 2021. New head coach, Clay Helton from USC, is bringing in Buffalo transfer quarterback Kyle Vantrease to shore up quarterback play that saw five TD passes and 12 interceptions in 2021. Unfortunately, in his five years at Buffalo, Vantrease only completed 59.2% of his passes, so only time will tell if that was good move or not. ESPN sees Southern getting five to six wins, and it would not surprise me to see that be correct. (
https://gseagles.com/sports/football/schedule/2022).
10/29 @ Georgia State (2021 – 8-5) L (6-2)
The Panthers got off to a slow start last year but went on to post an 8-5 season with a bowl win over Ball State. Four members of the O-line highlight eight returning offensive starters that includes quarterback Darren Grainger and tight end Aubry Paine, who had seven TDs. While Grainger completed only 59.6% of his passes, he threw for 19 TDs with only four interceptions for a passer rating of 146.8. He also ran for an additional 646 yards and three TDs. Returning running back Tucker Gregg, who ran for 953 yards and nine TDs rounds out this very solid group of returning offensive starters. Throw seven defensive starters into this mix, and you have a team that I believe will exceed the six wins predicted by ESPN. If this was a home game, I might pick the Monarchs, but it is not –and I am not.
11/5 vs. Marshall (2021 – 7-6) W (7-2)
The Monarchs lost to Marshall in overtime last year in Huntington. This year, the Herd will have Texas Tech transfer Henry Colombi at quarterback. His stats from last year are very similar to those of Hayden Wolff, though Colombi leads ever so slightly in most categories. Marshall has a solid group of skill players returning but only one returning starter on the O-line. The Marshall defense has two transfers inbound who are expected to improve the D-line, all starting linebackers return, and both cornerbacks return, but the Herd will need help at safety where three key players are gone. It looks like the Herd and the Monarchs are in for another close game, with the home team coming out on top.
11/12 vs. James Madison (2021 - 12–2) W (8-2)
The Dukes have seven starters back on offense, but they lost their quarterback and their top receiver. Transfer Todd Centeio from Colorado State will be at quarterback, and like Colombi at Marshall, his passing stats are similar to Wolff’s. Big difference? He also rushed for 439 yards. JMU had a strong FCS defense last year. However, the Dukes lost their top two tacklers from the linebacking corps, and that is from a 4-2-5 defensive scheme. They also lose their best pass rusher from the D-line, and only two starters are back in the secondary. It looks to me like their move to the FBS could be a little more of a challenge than some think.
11/19 @ Appalachian State (2021 – 10-4) L (8-3)
The Mountaineers’ offense returns the quarterback, four O-linemen, and two strong running backs, but it loses all three starting receivers from last season. If the receiving corps steps up, this offense will be really good. The defense also has questions as the Mountaineers lose five starters including the two safeties. This is a team that led the conference in run defense last year, and despite the defensive losses, the consensus seems to be that the defense will be strong again this year. If so, App State will be a serious contender for the Sun Belt East title.
11/26 @ South Alabama (2021 - 5–7) W (9-3)
South Alabama returns seven starters and adds eight P-5 transfers to a defense that was fairly well regarded for most of the season last year before losing their last four games. Eight starters return on offense, but quarterback Jake Bentley is gone after completing 70% of his passes last year. Competing to replace him are Toledo transfer Carter Bradley and redshirt junior Desmond Trotter who appears more likely to get the nod. That all seems reasonably impressive, but this is a team that won only five games last year and is generally expected to win only five to six games this year.
I tried to research this as good as I could. I'm sure you guys will let me know where I have it wrong.
Cheers, all!
/
CFN: SBC predictions for every game
