Can someone provide me the quick version of why a few months ago:

The Sun Belt Conference did not send an invite to MTSU and/or WKU

OR

MTSU and/or WKU made it clear beforehand that an invite from the SBC would not be accepted

It's pretty much one or the other, but I guessed I missed that here somehow.

Matt Brown, you around??? :)

(01-22-2022 01:28 PM)cc22 Wrote:  

(01-22-2022 10:43 AM)Titans3775 Wrote:  

(01-22-2022 09:03 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(01-22-2022 08:57 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I don’t think Memphis gets the bid any time soon… unless there is some more poaching. 12 is a solid number. There just aren’t a pair of schools to justify going to 14. Memphis USF? Colorado St? Boise?

I mean, unless they really love Boise St, then by all means take them and setup some East/West monstrosity. But by the looks of it, Memphis will be made to wait for years as was the case with UCF and UC.

And that’s where I’m at as well. I don’t see any 2 schools out there in the G5 that would elevate the status of the Big 12.

MTSU obviously doesn’t share my pessimism and thinks change is around the corner.

I don't know if they go to 16 immediately if they think they can poach the PAC eventually, but I think 14 would be a smart decision. Adding more schools with large fanbases or fanbase potential is a self-fulfilling prophecy for TV revenue. You are competing with conferences of 16, 15, and 14. Something about the large size is obviously working for them and something about the small size is getting them and the PAC shredded. If there is a standalone conference game, would you rather have the interest of 16 schools worth of eyeballs or would you rather have 12 schools worth. Pretty obvious answer. That is why I think Memphis and USF/Boise will follow pretty soon.

Adding more schools is about making money. Memphis or Boise or USF are not going to make Big 12 schools more money

BYU was the only school added that might have increased the conference value. The other schools were added on potential and not because they made the big12 more money. It's a long term bet that they increase in value to match the Big12 average. They are going to be waiting a long time if they expect a G5 school to come in and add more value without the advantage of a $30M tv contract. Memphis seems like a shoe-in but idk who they choose between Boise (short term TV value) or USF (little value now but potential). But it's the Big12 so they will probably stay at 12 and waste away because they are reactive and not proactive.

(01-22-2022 01:30 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  Can someone provide me the quick version of why a few months ago:

The Sun Belt Conference did not send an invite to MTSU and/or WKU

OR

MTSU and/or WKU made it clear beforehand that an invite from the SBC would not be accepted

It's pretty much one or the other, but I guessed I missed that here somehow.

Matt Brown, you around??? :)

The SBC heavily considered WKU. Had Marshall + ODU + JMU stuck with C-USA, the SBC would've expanded to 12 with Southern Miss + WKU.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/coll...erence-usa

(01-22-2022 01:30 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  Can someone provide me the quick version of why a few months ago:

The Sun Belt Conference did not send an invite to MTSU and/or WKU

OR

MTSU and/or WKU made it clear beforehand that an invite from the SBC would not be accepted

It's pretty much one or the other, but I guessed I missed that here somehow.

Matt Brown, you around??? :)

As I understand it

The rumors were the Marshall told the Sun belt they'd join if JMU and either ODU or WKU also joined. Southern Miss wanted the Sun belt and worked to get that lined up before the other part was lined up. Both JMU (changing football classification) and ODU (budget shortfall like MTSU) had to get their house in order. The Virginia schools were always the preference, WKU was something of a backup should ODU or JMU pass.

Absolutely no mention of MTSU.

Basically the SBC was not terribly interested in schools that left the SBC for C-USA (been there done that thinking). The exception appears to have been North Texas, whom putting 2 and 2 together, seems to have been the school that told the SBC they were waiting on the American before committing. They did in fact get an American invite -- a lot of speculation who that was, with some throwing Charlotte or Marshall out there, but never was any rumor that tied Charlotte to the SBC or Marshall to the AAC; North Texas appears to be the only overlap in interest.

MTSU only shows up as part of WKU's attempt to get in the MAC as a partner. But MTSU after looking into it a bit asked not to be considered.

MTSU, UTEP and Louisiana Tech are committed to C-USA. FIU has little choice, nobody was much interested. UTEP likely sniffed around at the MWC, but even any unlikely remote chance evaporated when the AAC decided to go with six, adding Rice and North Texas to the mix to shut the MWC out of Texas; Truth be told, the MWC was playing strenuous defense to hang on to Colorado State, Air Force and Boise State, so simply were not prepared to make an offer while the window was open (no question they had interest in North Texas and Rice). But UTEP early on was in front of the expansion effort to replace departing schools. WKU is only reluctantly still a member.

New schools coming in have their motives. The WAC is a bad, low revenue high travel cost one bid conference without FBS football and no CFP revenue, no media revenue. So even the sad state of media revenue for C-USA is still an upgrade for the Aggies. Having a built in conference schedule is a life saver, cutting costs and giving football something to play for. The CFP share increase is significant too for the program survival.

Liberty I suspect joined, despite knowing C-USA's problems, because Falwell Jr. is out and professional administrators got control of the books. Getting out of expensive games that were not drawing the crowds to justify them, as Falwell basically bought a schedule, must have been a priority. To replace games with Virginia and BYU with Sam State and Jax State gives a hint at how much that type of scheduling must have cost. The CFP money upgrade also must matter. This is definitely plan B, as they had hoped to be in a regional conference with James Madison, Old Dominion and Marshall. That they joined even after those schools departed for the SBC suggests how bad the books for football must look. The new administrators are not as ego driven as Falwell was, they are not willing to tolerate as much red ink in Athletics.

Jax State and Sam State are joining under the same theory Liberty had in moving up: Get into FBS while there is an opportunity and figure a plan to move forward from there. (That no other FCS schools applied tells you no others are anywhere close to moving up.) They know what they are getting into.

End of the day I only have sympathy for WKU, who are not where they want to be. When the music stopped they were without a chair.

(01-22-2022 05:57 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(01-22-2022 01:30 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  Can someone provide me the quick version of why a few months ago:

The Sun Belt Conference did not send an invite to MTSU and/or WKU

OR

MTSU and/or WKU made it clear beforehand that an invite from the SBC would not be accepted

It's pretty much one or the other, but I guessed I missed that here somehow.

Matt Brown, you around??? :)

As I understand it

The rumors were the Marshall told the Sun belt they'd join if JMU and either ODU or WKU also joined. Southern Miss wanted the Sun belt and worked to get that lined up before the other part was lined up. Both JMU (changing football classification) and ODU (budget shortfall like MTSU) had to get their house in order. The Virginia schools were always the preference, WKU was something of a backup should ODU or JMU pass.

Absolutely no mention of MTSU.

Basically the SBC was not terribly interested in schools that left the SBC for C-USA (been there done that thinking). The exception appears to have been North Texas, whom putting 2 and 2 together, seems to have been the school that told the SBC they were waiting on the American before committing. They did in fact get an American invite -- a lot of speculation who that was, with some throwing Charlotte or Marshall out there, but never was any rumor that tied Charlotte to the SBC or Marshall to the AAC; North Texas appears to be the only overlap in interest.

MTSU only shows up as part of WKU's attempt to get in the MAC as a partner. But MTSU after looking into it a bit asked not to be considered.

MTSU, UTEP and Louisiana Tech are committed to C-USA. FIU has little choice, nobody was much interested. UTEP likely sniffed around at the MWC, but even any unlikely remote chance evaporated when the AAC decided to go with six, adding Rice and North Texas to the mix to shut the MWC out of Texas; Truth be told, the MWC was playing strenuous defense to hand on to Colorado State, Air Force and Boise State, so simple were not prepared to make an offer while the window was open (no question they had interest in North Texas and Rice). But UTEP early on was in front of the expansion effort to replace departing schools. WKU is only reluctantly still a member.

New schools coming in have their motives. The WAC is a bad, low revenue high travel cost one bid conference without FBS football and no CFP revenue, no media revenue. So even the sad state of media revenue for C-USA the situation is still an upgrade for the Aggies. Having a built in conference schedule is a life saver, cutting costs and giving football something to play for. The CFP share increase is significant too for the program survival.

Liberty I suspect joined, despite knowing C-USA's problems, because Falwell Jr. is out and professional administrators got control of the books. Getting out of expensive games that were not drawing the crowds to justify them, as Falwell basically bought a schedule, must have been a priority. To replace games with Virginia and BYU with Sam State and Jax State gives a hint at how much that type of scheduling must have cost. The CFP money upgrade also must matter. This is definitely plan B, as they had hoped to be in a regional conference with James Madison, Old Dominion and Marshall. That they joined even after those schools departed for the SBC suggests how bad the books for football must look. The new administrators are not as ego driven as Falwell was, they are not willing to tolerate as much red ink in Athletics.

Jax State and Sam State are joining under the same theory Liberty had in moving up: Get into FBS while there is an opportunity and figure a plan to move forward from there. (That no other FCS schools applied tells you no others are anywhere close to moving up.) They know what they are getting into.

End of the day I only have sympathy for WKU, who are not where they want to be. When the music stopped they were without a chair.

All 5 remaining schools hoped to find a spot in another conference. MTSU threw a wrench in the MAC move for WKU only because the MAC wouldn't take WKU by themselves. That's not MTSU's fault. UTEP would have taken an invite to the MWC but was told absolutely no. FIU and La Tech would have taken any offer but none came that we know about. Even before the MTSU/WKU and MAC situation was resolved, 4 new members were added after a reported 30+ schools inquired. There are at least several more schools interested and capable of moving up but it's possible that the 9 want to remain at 9 for a while.

Let’s not forget the supposedly 20 year GOR the MAC asked WKU and MTSU to sign. That was a deal breaker for MTSU which has bigger aspirations although WKU was desperately willing to sign since let’s be honest, they’re not going to a better conference like the AAC anytime soon.

Very short sighted by MTSU. They should've gone to the MAC with WKU. MTSU is making a lot of assumptions. First that the Big 12 is going to expand again in the semi-near future. No guarantee that happens. IF that does happen, MTSU may not even be a major candidate for the AAC. The AAC will have it's pick of the Sunbelt, MAC, and C-USA. The AAC may take Marshall or JMU over MTSU. It would be karma if the AAC took WKU and left MTSU behind. MTSU putting all it's eggs in the AAC basket is foolish imo.

(01-22-2022 05:57 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(01-22-2022 01:30 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  Can someone provide me the quick version of why a few months ago:

The Sun Belt Conference did not send an invite to MTSU and/or WKU

OR

MTSU and/or WKU made it clear beforehand that an invite from the SBC would not be accepted

It's pretty much one or the other, but I guessed I missed that here somehow.

Matt Brown, you around??? :)

As I understand it

The rumors were the Marshall told the Sun belt they'd join if JMU and either ODU or WKU also joined. Southern Miss wanted the Sun belt and worked to get that lined up before the other part was lined up. Both JMU (changing football classification) and ODU (budget shortfall like MTSU) had to get their house in order. The Virginia schools were always the preference, WKU was something of a backup should ODU or JMU pass.

Absolutely no mention of MTSU.

Basically the SBC was not terribly interested in schools that left the SBC for C-USA (been there done that thinking). The exception appears to have been North Texas, whom putting 2 and 2 together, seems to have been the school that told the SBC they were waiting on the American before committing. They did in fact get an American invite -- a lot of speculation who that was, with some throwing Charlotte or Marshall out there, but never was any rumor that tied Charlotte to the SBC or Marshall to the AAC; North Texas appears to be the only overlap in interest.

MTSU only shows up as part of WKU's attempt to get in the MAC as a partner. But MTSU after looking into it a bit asked not to be considered.

MTSU, UTEP and Louisiana Tech are committed to C-USA. FIU has little choice, nobody was much interested. UTEP likely sniffed around at the MWC, but even any unlikely remote chance evaporated when the AAC decided to go with six, adding Rice and North Texas to the mix to shut the MWC out of Texas; Truth be told, the MWC was playing strenuous defense to hand on to Colorado State, Air Force and Boise State, so simple were not prepared to make an offer while the window was open (no question they had interest in North Texas and Rice). But UTEP early on was in front of the expansion effort to replace departing schools. WKU is only reluctantly still a member.

New schools coming in have their motives. The WAC is a bad, low revenue high travel cost one bid conference without FBS football and no CFP revenue, no media revenue. So even the sad state of media revenue for C-USA the situation is still an upgrade for the Aggies. Having a built in conference schedule is a life saver, cutting costs and giving football something to play for. The CFP share increase is significant too for the program survival.

Liberty I suspect joined, despite knowing C-USA's problems, because Falwell Jr. is out and professional administrators got control of the books. Getting out of expensive games that were not drawing the crowds to justify them, as Falwell basically bought a schedule, must have been a priority. To replace games with Virginia and BYU with Sam State and Jax State gives a hint at how much that type of scheduling must have cost. The CFP money upgrade also must matter. This is definitely plan B, as they had hoped to be in a regional conference with James Madison, Old Dominion and Marshall. That they joined even after those schools departed for the SBC suggests how bad the books for football must look. The new administrators are not as ego driven as Falwell was, they are not willing to tolerate as much red ink in Athletics.

Jax State and Sam State are joining under the same theory Liberty had in moving up: Get into FBS while there is an opportunity and figure a plan to move forward from there. (That no other FCS schools applied tells you no others are anywhere close to moving up.) They know what they are getting into.

End of the day I only have sympathy for WKU, who are not where they want to be. When the music stopped they were without a chair.

You are not supposed to know about any of this. Who is your source?

UNT was never really interested in returning to the Sun Belt. ESPN liked UNT, so the Sun Belt had to like UNT. It's that simple. But UNT was able to leverage the Belt interest and it helped North Texas secure an AAC invitation. UNT's discussions with the MWC were more serious, and probably the only real option UNT was considering had we not received the AAC invitation. UNT was confident we were moving to one of those two conferences.

(01-21-2022 10:16 PM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  It became very clear to me after reading the linked Nashville Ledger article about MTSU's campaign to raise $100 million for athletic facilities upgrades, the school had no intention of ever joining the MAC and is focused solely on a potential AAC invite.

The writer incorrectly included WKU as "nixing" a move to the MAC, which isn't true. The Hilltoppers were ready and willing to join the MAC and still might someday, with say, Missouri State or UMass.

MTSU seems confident that Memphis will receive an invite to the Big XII, thus creating a potential vacancy for them to fill in the AAC. Air Force just might have something to say about that though.

http://www.tnledger.com/editorial/Articl...?id=149565

I have to laugh at the "ambitious" facility plan when most of the MAC has all of that already if not better.

It has to do more with TV markets and MTSU delivering Nashville in a meaningful way has to be questioned, particularly when Nashville already has an FBS team (Vanderbilt).

Charlotte, Birmingham, Boca Raton, San Antonio only have 1 FBS team. Rice is bringing academics. DFW is a monster market so UNT gets play.

AAC has lots of options for a reload situation including doing nothing since they are thick with 14 members already.

I think it is more accurate to say that NT was able to leverage MW interest to help getting the AAC.

If I’m the AAC and I’ve got an opening, an eye towards R1 and markets, and the academies have already turned me down, I’m probably calling GA St, not MTSU.

I feel for MTSU. I’ve always had a soft spot for them because they were the opponent my alma mater faced in the Grantland Rice Bowl in the 60s. (The Muskies got blown out in that game)

(01-22-2022 09:04 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If I’m the AAC and I’ve got an opening, an eye towards R1 and markets, and the academies have already turned me down, I’m probably calling GA St, not MTSU.

I feel for MTSU. I’ve always had a soft spot for them because they were the opponent my alma mater faced in the Grantland Rice Bowl in the 60s. (The Muskies got blown out in that game)

If the AAC were to lose two, staying at 12 would make the most sense.... assuming ESPN would allow it. If not, I think the conference would look to Colorado State and Air Force again. Maybe Navy plus the 4 Texas teams would be enough to lure them away and somewhat cripple the MWC.

(01-22-2022 08:37 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  I think it is more accurate to say that NT was able to leverage MW interest to help getting the AAC.

Yes definitely. That was what the AAC was afraid of.

(01-22-2022 11:57 AM)ESE84 Wrote:  

(01-22-2022 07:53 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  

(01-21-2022 11:54 PM)UNLVFan90 Wrote:  

(01-21-2022 10:29 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  Hopefully the MWC will take us

You are more than welcome to join, friend.

Yeah, I would think all SMU has to do is call the MWC office.

MWC needs another baseball program. Probably need another school with good baseball to tag along.

I see what you did there.

(01-22-2022 09:18 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(01-22-2022 08:37 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  I think it is more accurate to say that NT was able to leverage MW interest to help getting the AAC.

Yes definitely. That was what the AAC was afraid of.

Not afraid, but the AAC didn't want a MWC program where they are headquartered. Especially when that program represents the 4th largest university in the state of Texas (42,000+ enrollment) and is located in the 5th largest media market. It was the smart move for the AAC to add UNT.

(01-22-2022 09:31 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(01-22-2022 09:18 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(01-22-2022 08:37 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  I think it is more accurate to say that NT was able to leverage MW interest to help getting the AAC.

Yes definitely. That was what the AAC was afraid of.

Not afraid, but the AAC didn't want a MWC program where they are headquartered. Especially when that program represents the 4th largest university in the state of Texas (42,000+ enrollment) and is located in the 5th largest media market. It was the smart move for the AAC to add UNT.

Had nothing to do with the headquarters.

(01-22-2022 09:36 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(01-22-2022 09:31 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(01-22-2022 09:18 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(01-22-2022 08:37 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  I think it is more accurate to say that NT was able to leverage MW interest to help getting the AAC.

Yes definitely. That was what the AAC was afraid of.

Not afraid, but the AAC didn't want a MWC program where they are headquartered. Especially when that program represents the 4th largest university in the state of Texas (42,000+ enrollment) and is located in the 5th largest media market. It was the smart move for the AAC to add UNT.

Had nothing to do with the headquarters.

Enlighten me.

(01-22-2022 10:03 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(01-22-2022 09:36 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(01-22-2022 09:31 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(01-22-2022 09:18 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(01-22-2022 08:37 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  I think it is more accurate to say that NT was able to leverage MW interest to help getting the AAC.

Yes definitely. That was what the AAC was afraid of.

Not afraid, but the AAC didn't want a MWC program where they are headquartered. Especially when that program represents the 4th largest university in the state of Texas (42,000+ enrollment) and is located in the 5th largest media market. It was the smart move for the AAC to add UNT.

Had nothing to do with the headquarters.

Enlighten me.

It had to do with keeping UNT/UTSA and future western expansion in the orbit of the AAC.

MWC wanted UNT/UTSA to give AFA that Texas exposure they desired, forever taking AAC western expansion off the table.

(01-22-2022 09:18 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(01-22-2022 09:04 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If I’m the AAC and I’ve got an opening, an eye towards R1 and markets, and the academies have already turned me down, I’m probably calling GA St, not MTSU.

I feel for MTSU. I’ve always had a soft spot for them because they were the opponent my alma mater faced in the Grantland Rice Bowl in the 60s. (The Muskies got blown out in that game)

If the AAC were to lose two, staying at 12 would make the most sense.... assuming ESPN would allow it. If not, I think the conference would look to Colorado State and Air Force again. Maybe Navy plus the 4 Texas teams would be enough to lure them away and somewhat cripple the MWC.

...this is the most likely scenario, with the assumption that the BIG XII 'round two' expansion/backfill has Boise at the top of the list (which seems to be the consensus) - and with that, the BIG XII may grab Colorado St. and/or AF, along with most likely Memphis, to add four - and get to 16.

...if THAT happens, the 'remnants' of the MWC may just join with the AAC 'in toto' and that's that... not sure where the final number would be for that, but the AAC could well end up being an 18-ish team conference, which I think is sorta what the 'powers that be' want... ultimately 3-4 'non-P5' conferences instead of 5-6 (it's still quite clear that C-USA was being gutted with the 'endgame' of snuffing it out...)


...and keep in mind that the MWC is not a 'primary' ESPN-conference... ...sorta like C-USA...

(01-22-2022 10:53 PM)GreenFreakUAB Wrote:  

(01-22-2022 09:18 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(01-22-2022 09:04 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If I’m the AAC and I’ve got an opening, an eye towards R1 and markets, and the academies have already turned me down, I’m probably calling GA St, not MTSU.

I feel for MTSU. I’ve always had a soft spot for them because they were the opponent my alma mater faced in the Grantland Rice Bowl in the 60s. (The Muskies got blown out in that game)

If the AAC were to lose two, staying at 12 would make the most sense.... assuming ESPN would allow it. If not, I think the conference would look to Colorado State and Air Force again. Maybe Navy plus the 4 Texas teams would be enough to lure them away and somewhat cripple the MWC.

...this is the most likely scenario, with the assumption that the BIG XII 'round two' expansion/backfill has Boise at the top of the list (which seems to be the consensus) - and with that, the BIG XII may grab Colorado St. and/or AF, along with most likely Memphis, to add four - and get to 16.

...if THAT happens, the 'remnants' of the MWC may just join with the AAC 'in toto' and that's that... not sure where the final number would be for that, but the AAC could well end up being an 18-ish team conference, which I think is sorta what the 'powers that be' want... ultimately 3-4 'non-P5' conferences instead of 5-6 (it's still quite clear that C-USA was being gutted with the 'endgame' of snuffing it out...)


...and keep in mind that the MWC is not a 'primary' ESPN-conference... ...sorta like C-USA...

The MWC is not a primary, secondary or any other "ary" of espn. They are with CBS Sports, Fox Sports and Stadium.