When the AAC settled in with its final membership after all the defections, it looked to be a power conference in hoops; one of the best in the country. A league with UCONN, Cincinnati, Temple, Memphis, Wichita, Houston and a Larry Brown SMU never developed into much more than the A-10. Now this year limping to a probable 1 bid in the NCAA’s. Now 3 more of the best schools are leaving and 6 all around awful programs are joining. Is the AAC a 1 bid conference for good going forward?

Idk as there was a lot of individual program underachievement. There is plenty of space for programs to build consistent success though.

1) UConn - Underachieved. Gone
2) Cincinnati - So-So achievement. Did what was expected under Cronin. Garbage under Brannen. Don’t foresee us not making the tourney many years under Wes. Doesn’t matter though. Gone
3) Houston - Overachieved. Gone
4) Temple - Underachieved. Will they ever get back to level with new coach? Staying. Not sure.
5) Memphis - Underachieved. Staying. Too much support and likely will get better. Penny or new coach?
6) Wichita- Downhill trend since joining. Staying. Too much support and likely will get better.

(01-21-2022 05:45 PM)natibeast2.0 Wrote:  Idk as there was a lot of individual program underachievement. There is plenty of space for programs to build consistent success though.

1) UConn - Underachieved. Gone
2) Cincinnati - So-So achievement. Did what was expected under Cronin. Garbage under Brannen. Don’t foresee us not making the tourney many years under Wes. Doesn’t matter though. Gone
3) Houston - Overachieved. Gone
4) Temple - Underachieved. Will they ever get back to level with new coach? Staying. Not sure.
5) Memphis - Underachieved. Staying. Too much support and likely will get better. Penny or new coach?
6) Wichita- Downhill trend since joining. Staying. Too much support and likely will get better.

Agree on Memphis. However they could be gone. If Memphis leaves I see Wichita going back to the MVC. Attendance is going to take a hit with the 6 newbies coming into the conference.

Just shows what an association with Minges will do.

You can look at the number of bids and say the league has underachieved, on the other hand the league has One National Champ and two Final Four appearances in the last 7 tournaments.

How does that compare with other leagues?
ACC 3 NC- 5 Final Fours
Big East 2 NC- 2 Final Fours
Big12. 1 NC- 4 Final Fours
AAC. 1 NC- 2 Final Fours
SEC. 0 NC- 5 Final Fours
BigTen 0 NC - 5 Final Fours
West Coast 0 NC- 2 Final Fours
PAC 0 NC- 2 Final Fours
MVC 0 NC- 1 Final Four

(01-21-2022 05:51 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(01-21-2022 05:45 PM)natibeast2.0 Wrote:  Idk as there was a lot of individual program underachievement. There is plenty of space for programs to build consistent success though.

1) UConn - Underachieved. Gone
2) Cincinnati - So-So achievement. Did what was expected under Cronin. Garbage under Brannen. Don’t foresee us not making the tourney many years under Wes. Doesn’t matter though. Gone
3) Houston - Overachieved. Gone
4) Temple - Underachieved. Will they ever get back to level with new coach? Staying. Not sure.
5) Memphis - Underachieved. Staying. Too much support and likely will get better. Penny or new coach?
6) Wichita- Downhill trend since joining. Staying. Too much support and likely will get better.

Agree on Memphis. However they could be gone. If Memphis leaves I see Wichita going back to the MVC. Attendance is going to take a hit with the 6 newbies coming into the conference.

Why would they go to MVC? Less money, less success than AAC. Loyola is leaving that conference. The MVC is in worse shape than the new AAC would be.

Some of the new additions are awful but I would definitely not say all. UAB and UNT would be the #1 and #2 team in the new league based on current NET. UNT already beat Wichita this year. Also, I think 4/6 are rated higher than ECU now? Whom has been to the tournament twice ever. UAB has 3 sweet 16 trips and an elite 8.

I agree. I thought the football would continue to build (which it did), but I thought the AAC would be a 3 bid league most years with chances at more.

Blame can go around, but it just never materialized like we had all hoped.

(01-21-2022 06:39 PM)Engblazr Wrote:  Some of the new additions are awful but I would definitely not say all. UAB and UNT would be the #1 and #2 team in the new league based on current NET. UNT already beat Wichita this year. Also, I think 4/6 are rated higher than ECU now? Whom has been to the tournament twice ever. UAB has 3 sweet 16 trips and an elite 8.

Current NET

3 Houston
40 UAB
54 UNT
57 SMU
60 Cincinnati
73 Memphis
74 UCF
85 WSU
124 Temple
130 Tulane
141 FAU
152 ECU
155 Rice
171 Tulsa
187 Charlotte
209 USF
337 UTSA

(01-21-2022 05:31 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  When the AAC settled in with its final membership after all the defections, it looked to be a power conference in hoops; one of the best in the country.

That's clearly not the case, since the Big East, which had been a BCS conference - the equivalent of today's "power conferences" - was the only former BCS conference that did not make it into the "P5" in 2014.

After Louisville left, and before Wichita State joined, the AAC wasn't considered a power conference. It didn't start to be widely referred to as a "Major 7" conf. until Wichita State joined in 2017-18 (e.g., the AAC was ranked #8, behind the A-10 in 2014 and 2015).

(01-21-2022 05:31 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  A league with UCONN, Cincinnati, Temple, Memphis, Wichita, Houston and a Larry Brown SMU never developed into much more than the A-10.

Actually, it did after Wichita State joined. Since then, the AAC has been one of the "Major 7" D1 conferences in the country, making it one of the 7 best.

"Adding Wichita State means the AAC must now be counted as a 'Major 7' conference"

Matt Norlander (CBS Sports). Nov. 1, 2017

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basket...onference/

The AAC has sent an average of 3 teams per year to the NCAA tournament, before and after 2017, and earned more NCAA bids in 2018 and 2019, combined, than the PAC-12 did.

The AAC has moved ahead of the A-10 in the rankings. The A-10 is currently the #10th-ranked conference. The AAC is #7.

https://masseyratings.com/cb/arch/compare2022-9.htm

(01-21-2022 05:31 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  Now this year limping to a probable 1 bid in the NCAA’s.

It can be proven mathematically that this is not an accurate statement (see below). All we can say at this point that it's possible that the AAC will be a 1-bid conference.

The only way for the AAC to be a 1-bid conference would be if Houston wins the AAC tournament and no AAC team earns an at-large bid.

Historically, that has only happened 50% of the time in AAC history.

In six years when there was a single AAC regular season champion, the regular season champion of the AAC only earned a NCAA automatic bid as the AAC tournament championship three times.

This suggests that there is an approximately 50% chance that a team other than Houston will earn an auto-bid by winning the AAC tournament championship.

The probability rises above 50% when one notes the possibility that above and beyond the possibility of an AAC tourney champ other than UH, there may in addition be a 45% or 50% chance that a team such as SMU or Cincinnati will win an at-large bid.

.

SMU just won their 14th game, and is currently ranked #57 in the NET. They have won 77.8% of their games. If they continue to win 75% of their games, they would finish with 24 wins or the % equivalent, making them a probable at-large team.

Cincy is close behind with 13 wins, so they've also got a shot at an at-large bid.

Moreover, there are at least 3 or 4 teams that could get hot and win the AAC championship.

Thus, the AAC could be a 1-, 2-, or 3-bid conference this year.

If the probability of a team other than Houston winning the AAC tourney is 50% and the probability of a team other than Houston winning an at-large bid is 50%, that means that the probability of a team other than Houston earning either an automatic bid or an at-large bid would be approximately 75%.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

It can be shown mathematically that this would bring the probability of more than one AAC bid above 50%:

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

p(A u B) = p(A) + p(B) - (p A * p B)

p(auto or at-large bid) = p (auto bid) + p (at-large bid) - (p (auto & at-large bid)

p (auto or at-large bid) = (.50 +.50) - (.50 * .50) = 1.0 - .25 = .75 (=75%)

If the probability of a team other than Houston winning the AAC tourney is 40% and the probability of a team other than Houston winning an at-large bid is 40%, that means that the probability of a team other than Houston earning either an automatic bid or an at-large bid would be approximately

p(A u B) = p(A) + p(B) - (p A * pB)

p(auto or at-large bid) = p (auto bid) + p (at-large bid) - (p (auto & at-large bid)

p (auto or at-large bid) = (.40 +.40) - (.40 * .40) = .80 - .16 = .64 (=64%)

In either case, there would be more than a 50% likelihood that the AAC would earn more than one NCAA bid.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

(01-21-2022 05:31 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  Now this year limping to a probable 1 bid in the NCAA’s. Now 3 more of the best schools are leaving and 6 all around awful programs are joining. Is the AAC a 1 bid conference for good going forward?

There's no accounting for taste, and "awful" may be in the eye of the beholder.

However the way they have played in 2021-22, UTSA, UAB, and UNT can't be considered "all-around awful" unless 75% of the teams in the AAC are "all-around awful."

(#34) UTSA finished ahead of every AAC football team except Cincy and Houston in the final 2021 Massey Composite football rankings.

(#50) UAB finished the 2021 FB season ranked ahead of every AAC football team except Cincy, Houston, and SMU in the Massey Composite.

(#40) UAB and (#54) UNT are currently ranked ahead of every AAC basketball team except Houston in the NET.

.

(01-21-2022 10:43 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(01-21-2022 05:31 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  When the AAC settled in with its final membership after all the defections, it looked to be a power conference in hoops; one of the best in the country.

That's clearly not the case, since the Big East, which had been a BCS conference - the equivalent of today's "power conferences" - was the only former BCS conference that did not make it into the "P5" in 2014.

After Louisville left, and before Wichita State joined, the AAC wasn't considered a power conference. It didn't start to be widely referred to as a "Major 7" conf. until Wichita State joined in 2017-18 (e.g., the AAC was ranked #8, behind the A-10 in 2014 and 2015).

(01-21-2022 05:31 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  A league with UCONN, Cincinnati, Temple, Memphis, Wichita, Houston and a Larry Brown SMU never developed into much more than the A-10.

Actually, it did after Wichita State joined. Since then, the AAC has been one of the "Major 7" D1 conferences in the country, making it one of the 7 best.

"Adding Wichita State means the AAC must now be counted as a 'Major 7' conference"

Matt Norlander (CBS Sports). Nov. 1, 2017

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basket...onference/

The AAC has sent an average of 3 teams per year to the NCAA tournament, before and after 2017, and earned more NCAA bids in 2018 and 2019, combined, than the PAC-12 did.

The AAC has moved ahead of the A-10 in the rankings. The A-10 is currently the #10th-ranked conference. The AAC is #7.

https://masseyratings.com/cb/arch/compare2022-9.htm

(01-21-2022 05:31 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  Now this year limping to a probable 1 bid in the NCAA’s.

It can be proven mathematically that this is not an accurate statement (see below). All we can say at this point that it's possible that the AAC will be a 1-bid conference.

The only way for the AAC to be a 1-bid conference would be if Houston wins the AAC tournament and no AAC team earns an at-large bid.

Historically, that has only happened 50% of the time in AAC history.

In six years when there was a single AAC regular season champion, the regular season champion of the AAC only earned a NCAA automatic bid as the AAC tournament championship three times.

This suggests that there is an approximately 50% chance that a team other than Houston will earn an auto-bid by winning the AAC tournament championship.

The probability rises above 50% when one notes the possibility that above and beyond the possibility of an AAC tourney champ other than UH, there may in addition be a 45% or 50% chance that a team such as SMU or Cincinnati will win an at-large bid.

.

SMU just won their 14th game, and is currently ranked #57 in the NET. They have won 77.8% of their games. If they continue to win 75% of their games, they would finish with 24 wins or the % equivalent, making them a probable at-large team.

Cincy is close behind with 13 wins, so they've also got a shot at an at-large bid.

Moreover, there are at least 3 or 4 teams that could get hot and win the AAC championship.

Thus, the AAC could be a 1-, 2-, or 3-bid conference this year.

If the probability of a team other than Houston winning the AAC tourney is 50% and the probability of a team other than Houston winning an at-large bid is 50%, that means that the probability of a team other than Houston earning either an automatic bid or an at-large bid would be approximately 75%.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

It can be shown mathematically that this would bring the probability of more than one AAC bid above 50%:

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

p(A u B) = p(A) + p(B) - (p A * p B)

p(auto or at-large bid) = p (auto bid) + p (at-large bid) - (p (auto & at-large bid)

p (auto or at-large bid) = (.50 +.50) - (.50 * .50) = 1.0 - .25 = .75 (=75%)

If the probability of a team other than Houston winning the AAC tourney is 40% and the probability of a team other than Houston winning an at-large bid is 40%, that means that the probability of a team other than Houston earning either an automatic bid or an at-large bid would be approximately

p(A u B) = p(A) + p(B) - (p A * pB)

p(auto or at-large bid) = p (auto bid) + p (at-large bid) - (p (auto & at-large bid)

p (auto or at-large bid) = (.40 +.40) - (.40 * .40) = .80 - .16 = .64 (=64%)

In either case, there would be more than a 50% likelihood that the AAC would earn more than one NCAA bid.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

(01-21-2022 05:31 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  Now this year limping to a probable 1 bid in the NCAA’s. Now 3 more of the best schools are leaving and 6 all around awful programs are joining. Is the AAC a 1 bid conference for good going forward?

There's no accounting for taste, and "awful" may be in the eye of the beholder.

However the way they have played in 2021-22, UTSA, UAB, and UNT can't be considered "all-around awful" unless 75% of the teams in the AAC are "all-around awful."

(#34) UTSA finished ahead of every AAC football team except Cincy and Houston in the final 2021 Massey Composite football rankings.

(#50) UAB finished the 2021 FB season ranked ahead of every AAC football team except Cincy, Houston, and SMU in the Massey Composite.

(#40) UAB and (#54) UNT are currently ranked ahead of every AAC basketball team except Houston in the NET.

.

Against weak CUSA opponents yeah….

(01-22-2022 02:14 AM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(01-21-2022 10:43 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  . . .

(01-21-2022 05:31 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  Now this year limping to a probable 1 bid in the NCAA’s. Now 3 more of the best schools are leaving and 6 all around awful programs are joining. Is the AAC a 1 bid conference for good going forward?

There's no accounting for taste, and "awful" may be in the eye of the beholder.

However the way they have played in 2021-22, UTSA, UAB, and UNT can't be considered "all-around awful" unless 75% of the teams in the AAC are "all-around awful."

(#34) UTSA finished ahead of every AAC football team except Cincy and Houston in the final 2021 Massey Composite football rankings.

(#50) UAB finished the 2021 FB season ranked ahead of every AAC football team except Cincy, Houston, and SMU in the Massey Composite.

(#40) UAB and (#54) UNT are currently ranked ahead of every AAC basketball team except Houston in the NET.

.

Against weak CUSA opponents yeah….

Yes. The NET was created by conferences like CUSA to artificially make their top teams look better.

(01-21-2022 05:31 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  When the AAC settled in with its final membership after all the defections, it looked to be a power conference in hoops; one of the best in the country. A league with UCONN, Cincinnati, Temple, Memphis, Wichita, Houston and a Larry Brown SMU never developed into much more than the A-10. Now this year limping to a probable 1 bid in the NCAA’s. Now 3 more of the best schools are leaving and 6 all around awful programs are joining. Is the AAC a 1 bid conference for good going forward?

It's not a one bid conference going forward, but I agree with your premise that the conference underperformed. There was a championship, but UCONN regressed to the mean after that before leaving, and Houston notched a Final Four, both of which are higher marks than the A-10 over the last 8 + years. I think Memphis and Temple have generally underperformed. Cincy has done OK and Wichita has not been with us long enough to judge (though they do seem to be slipping badly this year). The good news is ECU and Tulane are getting traction. I see us as a 1-3 bid conference for the next 7 years after the three schools get promoted.

Why isn't there a character limit here? Or a rule against quoting 1,000+ word posts?

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

We're going to be in the NCAA, chumps.

But by all means feel free to go on kicking yourselves.

(01-22-2022 03:23 PM)b2b Wrote:  Why isn't there a character limit here? Or a rule against quoting 1,000+ word posts?

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

My version of Tapatalk only shows me the first few lines of a quoted post. Now, that’s what I call a FEATURE.

And Georgia State's old coach has pretty much taken over the conference it seems.

(01-21-2022 05:31 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  When the AAC settled in with its final membership after all the defections, it looked to be a power conference in hoops; one of the best in the country. A league with UCONN, Cincinnati, Temple, Memphis, Wichita, Houston and a Larry Brown SMU never developed into much more than the A-10. Now this year limping to a probable 1 bid in the NCAA’s. Now 3 more of the best schools are leaving and 6 all around awful programs are joining. Is the AAC a 1 bid conference for good going forward?

Isn't under achieved one word? I may be under estimating your spelling.

Under where?

(01-22-2022 06:23 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  Under where?

Underthere. Lol