(03-06-2022 10:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (03-02-2022 09:27 AM)Cubanbull1 Wrote: (03-02-2022 12:39 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote: (03-01-2022 09:36 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote: (03-01-2022 09:12 PM)Engblazr Wrote: Interesting. This isn’t something I’ve heard before. From my understanding, the total payout is remaining the same and the 6 new additions will split half a share of the 3 leaving. Using a round $10 million currently per team to make the example easy to explain would be $30 million total for 3 teams. That would yield $5 million each for the 6 new additions. That’s what was widely speculated. However, I don’t find it very fair if UAB or UTSA, for instance, consistently draws in 2x the viewers of Tulsa or Temple to make half as much as them.
I don’t know where he got that from. Everything I have read says the payments to the remains 8 stays the same while the incoming schools will get less but increasing thru the contract years. If the 3 schools leaving got paid 7 million each that’s 21 million. If the incoming schools get 2.5 that’s 15 million so ESPN saves 6 million first year but that number gets lower as the years progress and the newcomers get more. But I haven’t seen actual numbers, so if anyone has it would love to see it.
Engblzr fell for one of the classic blunders. We all know "Don't get involved in a land war in Asia" and "Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line" but less known is "Don't directly engage with Milwaukee/jedclampett/JamesTKirk when he is randomly spouting off non-factual things."
(No, seriously, just avoid responding directly to that poster. You'll be happier.)
While we don't know specifics, all indications are that the ESPN-AAC deal was not cut. Common sense answer - while we might be losing 40% of football viewership with the departures, a 14-team AAC offers our primary media rights partner 30% more total inventory than the 11-team AAC.
The reports of payouts bear that out.
First - escalating contract. Anyone posting is guessing, BUT reasonable guesses about a twelve-year $1 Billion contract with escalations around 3-5% a year give you year one around $63 million to the conference and year twelve around $99 million to the conference.
So - look at what Pete Thamel reported: "the television revenue [for the six new members] will be more than $2 million at the start of the deal and rise significantly from there. Incumbent AAC members are still expected to average about $7 million annually over the course of the current ESPN television deal, which runs through 2031-32."
https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-the-aac...15069.html
That TOTALLY maths out to
a. Total deal remains
b. "Half-share" for the new members STARTS at $2 to $2.5 million and ramps up to $4.5 million at the end of the deal
c. Incumbents' "full share" goes from $5.7 million last year and $6 million each THIS year to $9 million in the final year.
d. If you divide the twelfth year $99 million guess by fourteen members...there is a way to get everyone equitable around $7 million each in the last year of the contract...when the escalations reach the point where the incumbents' share hits $7 million, slow their increases and accelerate the new members' increases. In that scenario, the incumbent members' average over twelve years gets lower, below $7 million, but a billion divided by 12 years divided by twelve teams was a skosh below $7 million anyway...
The other major flaw in Milwaukee's point: ESPN has NO say in the conference decisions on distriubtion...That's our business.
Occam's Razor says that they drove the AAC to take six instead of stopping at two or four. But ESPN has no influence on how the conference distributes the ESPN money (or other money) in year 5 of the contract (the 2024-25 year when AAC conference composition changes take effect as of now UNLESS the three negotiate an earlier departure) or year 8 or year 12 of the contract.
Doesn't quite fall under Occam's Razor, but it passes the common sense check that ESPN put SunBelt teams off limits. Okay.
I PERSONALLY maybe would have liked, once we were taking six new members, for one or two of the six to have a snapshot value in football success. But that snapshot is ephemeral. Morons shout about "Marketz!!!" the better point is BUDGETZ. Rather than betting on one or two years in the rear view mirror of on-field/on-court success, the AAC is betting on decades into the future of INVESTMENT which should lead to on-field/on-court success.
Well stated, as always 
The thing is, we already have played two of the twelve football seasons under the "new" TV deal, and yet I don't think anyone knows what our media payout has been, for 2020-2021 (first year) or the current 2021-2022 year either.
Will be interesting, because that will tell us the 'range' of the deal for the legacy schools.
"Navy" seems to think it is pretty broad, starting at around $5m per school per year and ending up around $9m. My recollection is that it is a tighter range, more like $6m escalating to $8m.
I am curious.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian...a8f4347dc9
Here's an article from a Forbes sports business reporter.
I'll throw it out there as a discussion starting point because it's already been introduced on these boards: started on the MAC forum and one of them brought it into the Realignment board, so it's out there. Written in June '20 with a "what's the COVID impact" framing.
His table goes out to the '24-'25 season and lists the AAC primary media rights contract as:
20-21 $63M
21-22 $66M
22-23 $69M
23-24 $72M
24-25 $76M
That's a 5% escalation, truncating at millions. I'll carry that out to reach an even Billion
25-26 $80
26-27 $84
27-28 $88
28-29 $93
20-30 $97
30-31 $102
31-32 $107
It's a guess - I have no confidence that Ozanian knows anymore than anyone else - but that 5% guess is as good as any other. I'll note his 2019-20 number was the estimate from that time - The Form 990 showed $20M increase in primary media rights - we had unconfirmed reports of a "signing bonus"...nice for distributions all 12 of us have already pocketed, and documented in the most recent Form 990, but also a skosh less in each of those 12 years of the contract.
It's easy enough to run 12 years at a 3% escalation or a 10% escalation, but this one is in the middle of the range and is already in discussion on these boards, so I personally am happy to default to that.
We'll see in a few months what the '20-'21 filing says about revenue from TV/radio (which still won't call out the exact figure for the primary deal - still the Navy tier, some other CBS basketball, some Westwood radio or ESPN radio for the CCG).
Any number of thoughts, including relative to other threads...
- Thamel's report about where "half-shares" start fits
- mwc honks saying that we won't even equal them when they're re-negotiating are pretty wrong
- Sun Belt (legacy and new) saying they'll be right there with the half-share new teams are pretty wrong from the beginning and especially at the end
- as I noted - if you freeze the legacy AAC somewhere after their 1/11th shares hit $7M...final number divided by 14 equal shares gets everyone over $7M
- exit fees for leaving a year early? The "the AAC doesn't even distribute $7M per year, waaaah" will be out of date for the '23-'24 year in question -- the media revenue and therefore total distributions should increase by $3M per team over the last known distribution from '19-'20
- Oh - the known '19-'20 revenues, with that supposed "signing bonus" was the first year since 2014 that the media revenues jumped WAY above the CFP payout. That CFP payout, including when the conference gets another $4M or even $6M for having the top champ, is now less than our ESPN money. If an expanded CFP TRIPLES the money for '26 on, and IF the non-contract-bowl conferences keep a relative piece of the pie and IF the AAC is somehow still consistently getting the lion's share amongst those five in that group....the ESPN-AAC deal will still be worth more to us
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Is the AAC still the #1 non-contract-bowl conference for CFP $? (2021-22 edition)
