(02-10-2022 12:07 AM)topper1296 Wrote: Here is another stat I looked using the NCAA NET data as of 02.08.22. Below shows the number of Quad 1 wins and the number of Quad 4 loses (AKA good wins vs bad loses) with current members and future members.
Current AAC
Quad 1 wins - 11
Quad 4 loses - 8
Future AAC
Quad 1 wins - 10
Quad 4 loses - 15
Future AAC has 1 less Quad 1 win and 7 more Quad 4 loses
Current CUSA
Quad 1 wins - 4
Quad 4 loses - 21
Future CUSA
Quad 1 wins - 3
Quad 4 loses - 9
Future CUSA has 1 less Quad 1 win and 12 less Quad 4 loses
Current SBC
Quad 1 wins - 0
Quad 4 loses - 22
Future SBC
Quad 1 wins - 0
Quad 4 loses - 28
Future SBC will still have 0 Quad 1 wins and 6 more Quad 4 loses
I am hoping the absolute best for the SBC bound schools, but it’s hard to even sugarcoat the basketball there to sound good. Which I hate for ODU and Marshall which are traditionally pretty solid basketball teams. Honestly, ODU might be a perennial tourney team by winning SBC every year, although they’d probably be a first 4 team. Everyone in this weird experiment of a conference has made it fun and I hate this version of CUSA never hit on full cylinders.
Also I think that shows the difference between new AAC and new CUSA. The average is the same, literally by one point, but the new AAC has such a good top-end that you’re going to have many many more chances at in- conference Q1 wins. For example, the new CUSA will have zero chances as it stands. Maybe a road win at LaTech could, but they’re currently out of range of that. It appears any new look CUSA Q1 wins have to be handled OOC. Which is pretty much the same as current CUSA and what has led to being a one bid league. The new AAC will have UAB, Witchita, North Texas, Memphis, SMU all in Quad 1 win territory. Depending on how Aresco can handle the scheduling, could be multiple opportunities. As we have been told recently, they don’t necessarily look at *your* NET when seeding and granting at-large bids, they look at the NET of your wins. If UAB, for instance, played in new AAC this season with same OOC schedule, that’s an opportunity for 7 Q1 wins, maybe more depending on the conference tournament neutral site games. Go 5-2 or 4-3 and that’s solid at-large territory. Even Houston, a lock for the tournament, has a losing record against Q1 teams currently. Additionally, I think the bad teams in new AAC could win occasionally, like USF or UTSA, and still leave you in at-large range like Alabama losing to TWO sub 200 teams in SEC play and still a projected 6 seed.
That said, I hope shrinking the league down and adding some decent programs can propel CUSA up. I’d like to see it be multi-bid (hopefully stealing what would have been an SEC bid lol) but I don’t see how losing your two Q1 win opportunities and replacing them with lower quality wins could bring multi-bid level. Hope I’m wrong. UTEP and WKU representing new CUSA in tourney would be dope.
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2021-22 NET rankings-current vs future conf affiliations - Men
