(11-20-2021 10:26 PM)rtist Wrote: Why would Temple leave the AAC and potentially end up like UConn?
I can't see it happening.
Temple is committed to the AAC through 2031-32, and that's unlikely to change, because Temple and the handful of other AAC "remainers" are on track to be paid more than any other G5 conference schools in broadcasting revenue.
Thus, even though the AAC could drop way down in stature, the university probably wouldn't leave before 2032 unless they were to be invited to join a P5 conference.
However, if the AAC becomes much less competitive, e.g., due to the loss of Memphis and SMU, ESPN would probably slash revenues to the AAC remainers to the same levels it will pay Charlotte, etc.
If that were to happen, and if there are no prospects for a potential P5 membership, Temple might be better off joining a more competitive eastern G5 conference in 2032. The MAC doesn't interest them, so CUSA and SBC would be their other all-sports alternatives.
The only other possibility they might consider would be playing football in the MWC and their other sports in the Big East or Atlantic 10.
The main point though is that if CUSA becomes more competitive than the AAC will become after losing Memphis and SMU, a school like Temple might consider joining when their current broadcasting deal expires.
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Consider this, for example (current MBB rankings of current & future AAC programs):
8 Houston*
16 Memphis
58 UAB ^
59 UCF*.................midpoint (median) of 3 departing AAC 1.0 programs=59.0
61 SMU
66 Wichita State
95 Cincinnati*........midpoint (median) of the 11 current AAC programs=95.0
118 UNT^
134 Tulane
...................................midpoint (median) of the 8 AAC "remainers"=134.5
135 Temple
.........................midpoint (median) of the 14 future AAC "2.0" programs=135.5
136 Rice^
147 Tulsa
152 ECU
...........................midpoint (median) of the 6 incoming CUSA programs=164.0
192 USF
194 Charlotte ^
202 FAU^
261 UTSA^
Future AAC
* schools that will be joining the Big 12 in 2024
^ schools that will be joining the AAC in 2024
With these kinds of rankings, the conference would only earn one NCAA bid if the regular season champion (Memphis, in this case) were to win the conference tournament.
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Now, remove Memphis & SMU, to get an idea of how bad things could get:
8 Houston*
16 Memphis*
58 UAB ^
59 UCF*.................midpoint (median) of 5 departing AAC 1.0 programs=59.0
61 SMU*
66 Wichita State
95 Cincinnati*........midpoint (median) of the 11 current AAC programs=95.0
118 UNT^
134 Tulane
135 Temple
136 Rice^
...................midpoint (median) of 12 AAC programs w/o Memphis & SMU=141.5
147 Tulsa
152 ECU
...........................midpoint (median) of the 6 incoming CUSA programs=164.0
192 USF
194 Charlotte ^
202 FAU^
261 UTSA^
Future AAC
* schools that will be joining or are viewed as likely to join the Big 12
^ schools that will be joining the AAC
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With few potential at-large teams, the AAC could easily become a one NCAA bid conference at that point, and the only remaining football programs with top 25 teams in recent memory would be UTSA and Navy's struggling FB program.
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