(12-16-2021 06:41 PM)northcoastRocket Wrote:  Well, here we go with the MAC ...

EMU has cancelled their last 2 OOC games against IUPUI and Michigan. Don't say it's due to COVID, but, why else? I'm thinking there are gonna be a lot of games cancelled again this year. How bad will it be.
https://emueagles.com/news/2021/12/16/wo...anges.aspx

Omicron wave will be massive, sorry to say. The African scientists who know the most about it are saying twice as transmissible and so mutated that it basically removes 1 shot from your vaccination resistance (i.e. fully vaxxed=half vaxxed, boosted=fully vaxxed). So, itʻs gonna get a ton a vaccinated people sick. they will generally have cold or flu type illness but be carriers. Plus, many states have outlawed lots of the needed prevention measures. Unvaxxed people are in for a long winter. Us health care workers are worn the f out and in need of a stronger virus management approach.

Expect a lot of cancellations unfortunately. Be safe out there-this one is worse than the other versions in terms of transmissibility.

(12-08-2021 09:33 PM)northcoastRocket Wrote:  Buffalo 62 VCU 60
Buffalo hits a buzzer beater, after VCU hit a three to tie with 2 seconds left.

Interestingly (or not) VCU was beaten today by Stetson, 64-58. Stetson was led by Mali Morgan-Elliott's 12 points.

Only nine more letters to go and this virus will be history!

And the next shoe drops - Kent State announced they are in a COVID pause and have cancelled their game with Florida State.

More COVID fallout as NIU has announced their game against Colorado State scheduled for Tuesday has been cancelled, due to COVID issues with CSU. Their OOC schedule is over.

Some decent showings by MAC teams against Big10 competition today:

#10 Indiana 67 WMU 57
Indiana shot terribly from three (2-16) but the standard MAC team problem of rebounding was big: IU 47 WMU 29. IU also made 19 FTs to WMU's 5

Purdue 82 Miami 76
WMU had played Purdue tough earlier in the year as well, so maybe not such a surprise. Still a good showing. Miami shot better and had more made buckets, but again lost out in the FT battle: PU 19, MU 7

BG 72 Oakland 60 in Vegas.
Same margin as UT's 84-72 win over Oakland, although UT played them in Rochester. So, if you believe in those head-to-head comparisons, that makes UT's win slightly better. BG was supposed to play Campbell, not Oakland today, but apparently Campbell bailed on the Vegas tourney due to, you guessed it, COVID issues.

(12-19-2021 02:36 PM)northcoastRocket Wrote:  More COVID fallout as NIU has announced their game against Colorado State scheduled for Tuesday has been cancelled, due to COVID issues with CSU. Their OOC schedule is over.

Add Akron to the list. They were scheduled to play games in Las Vegas tomorrow and Tuesday, but did not make the trip due to COVID-19 protocols.

Akron - Covid

Bucknell 80 Buffalo 69
Bucknell is really good. Very well coached. Score was 36-13 Bucknell at one point, but Buffalo came almost all the way back, before Bucknell pulled away at the end. Buffalo's Aussie freshman Wooley went off in the 2nd half. She had 22 on 7-10 shooting. She looks extremely dangerous. I heard that she averaged something like 43 points per game in HS.

Ball State 84 Bellarmine 63
Bellarmine has only 1 win on the season, but has played a fairly difficult schedule. Only their 2nd season as DI. Did much better than last season, where they lost to BSU by 56. Former Rocket Jaela Johnson lead BU with 18 points, 7 boards, 6 assists and 3 steals. Wow. UT could have used that kind of production from a backup PG last year ... or even this one. Ball State's offense is mostly all Anna Clephane this year. She had 26 tonight.

Green Bay 71 CMU 67
Green Bay is not that great, coming in at 5-4 but they looked like they were gonna run away and hide from CMU in the 1st, leading by as much as 16 - and it should have been a lot more, they missed probably 10-12 bunnies in the game. In the 2nd, CMU played much better and Molly Davis found her shot and they eventually tied it, but could not hold on. Davis had 27.

(12-20-2021 10:13 PM)northcoastRocket Wrote:  Bucknell 80 Buffalo 69
Bucknell is really good. Very well coached. Score was 36-13 Bucknell at one point, but Buffalo came almost all the way back, before Bucknell pulled away at the end. Buffalo's Aussie freshman Wooley went off in the 2nd half. She had 22 on 7-10 shooting. She looks extremely dangerous. I heard that she averaged something like 43 points per game in HS.

Ball State 84 Bellarmine 63
Bellarmine has only 1 win on the season, but has played a fairly difficult schedule. Only their 2nd season as DI. Did much better than last season, where they lost to BSU by 56. Former Rocket Jaela Johnson lead BU with 18 points, 7 boards, 6 assists and 3 steals. Wow. UT could have used that kind of production from a backup PG last year ... or even this one. Ball State's offense is mostly all Anna Clephane this year. She had 26 tonight.

Green Bay 71 CMU 67
Green Bay is not that great, coming in at 5-4 but they looked like they were gonna run away and hide from CMU in the 1st, leading by as much as 16 - and it should have been a lot more, they missed probably 10-12 bunnies in the game. In the 2nd, CMU played much better and Molly Davis found her shot and they eventually tied it, but could not hold on. Davis had 27.

That's great for Johnson. I thought she looked overmatched last year, but those are some impressive numbers against Ball State. That's the second consecutive game for Buffalo (Princeton being the first) that they fell way behind, caught up, and then lost. It's looking less and less like the MAC will be getting an at-large bid for either the men or the women this year.

Missed these from the last couple days:

Ohio 74 UMass-Lowell 60

Marshall 79 Oakland 58
Dayton 71 High Point 64 in a Florida Tourney. High Point is 1-7.
#13 Georgia 82 St Francis 45
Seton Hall 69 Marquette 57 (Marquette is 8-3)

NET Rankings Heading into MAC Play (Through 12/21):

Rank Team Record
19 Missouri St 8-2
53 Buffalo 6-4
81 Toledo 6-3
84 Dayton 8-3
93 Kent St 6-1
96 Ohio 5-3
115 Ball St 7-3
120 Seton Hall 6-5
135 Bowling Green 4-4
157 Western Mich 4-3
163 Miami (OH) 4-5
200 Idaho St 3-6
212 Northern Ill 3-5
235 SIUE 4-6
261 Oakland 4-7
266 Eastern Mich 2-4
270 Akron 2-3
280 Loyola Maryland 3-7
294 Central Mich 2-7
295 Wright St 0-5
349 Saint Francis (PA) 0-11

Records only include games against DI opponents. Coming into the season, it looked like UT was going to have a really tough OOC schedule, as Wright St and Idaho St were both NCAA Tourney teams last year, but it turned out to be not the case. Don't know whether that helped or hurt UT in the long run. Anyway, it gets a lot tougher from this point on, so UT needs to wipe away the memory of the MSU game, and be ready for Kent in a week.

I'm still baffled by Kent State's NET ranking. Kent is a very good team that has had an excellent start to its season. It's hard for me to understand how the Rockets to date have outperformed Kent State. I would not be at all surprised to see Kent win the conference.

(12-22-2021 04:22 PM)Lester Wrote:  I'm still baffled by Kent State's NET ranking. Kent is a very good team that has had an excellent start to its season. It's hard for me to understand how the Rockets to date have outperformed Kent State. I would not be at all surprised to see Kent win the conference.

Yeah, NET (like any ranking system) doesn't necessarily accurately reflect which team is better. I agree Kent looks like the best team right now, with Buffalo close behind.

But again, NET weights efficiency highly, and only includes DI games, so Kent's 2 blowouts of John Carrol and Clarion don't count. Similarly, Ohio's win over Mercyhurst. If you look at unadjusted efficiency rates for a few MAC teams right now, you see:

Toledo 0.998-0.838 = +0.161
Kent 1.041-.927 = +0.113
Buffalo 0.990-0.887 = +0.104
Ohio 1.014-.932 = +0.082
CMU 0.810-0.988 = -0.179

Now again, NCAA supposedly adjusts those based on strength of opponents, but doesn't say how. I would expect that Kent, UB and OU's scores would be adjusted up relatively to UT's based on opponents, but can't say how much.

The other variable is team value index, which is weighted lower (unknown how much) and takes into account the strength of the opponent, the location (home/away/neutral) and winner. Supposedly does not factor in margin of victory. But who knows what the formula is.

UT has wins over teams 200, 235,261, 280, 295, 349 and losses to teams 19, 84, 120
Kent has wins over teams 62, 125, 147, 234, 249, 349 and losses to team 52.

One assumes Kent scores a lot better on this metric, but no way to know how much.

Do I think UT is a better team than Kent - no, not at all. But the NCAA's formula does, at least right now.

Oakland gets harder and harder to explain. I'd like a do-over.

(12-16-2021 06:41 PM)northcoastRocket Wrote:  Well, here we go with the MAC ...

EMU has cancelled their last 2 OOC games against IUPUI and Michigan. Don't say it's due to COVID, but, why else? I'm thinking there are gonna be a lot of games cancelled again this year. How bad will it be.
https://emueagles.com/news/2021/12/16/wo...anges.aspx

Looks like EMU is still having COVID issues, over a week since this announcement. Their MAC opener against BG has been postponed for possible rescheduling, and the 2nd game with OU has been moved from Jan 1 to Jan2.
https://emueagles.com/news/2021/12/24/wo...anges.aspx

I know that partly it's an matter of luck, but only partly. Rockets should get some credit for taking the necessary precautions to avoid any COVID issues (so far) the last two years.

Not MAC related, yet, but games seems to be dropping like flies nationally now. Big 10 has cancelled/postponed 4 games scheduled for this week; Big12 has cancelled 2; A10 has cancelled 7 ... etc. etc.

This is not going to be a good season. If it were possible, the best course might be to just pause basketball season nationally for a month, but logistically that's probably not possible. Just hope there aren't any serious illnesses among the players/ coaches/ staff anywhere.

The Omicron wave has been severe, but it may be quick. That's what happened in South Africa, where it started.

(12-27-2021 10:56 PM)Lester Wrote:  The Omicron wave has been severe, but it may be quick. That's what happened in South Africa, where it started.

true, although I think we should always be a bit cautious about the "where it started" mentality (not trying to jump on you personally Lester). South African scientists were the first to identify the strain and scientists around southern Africa were really on top of sharing information and analysis quickly and transparently. but patient zero could have been anyone in the region: i.e. south africa, botswana, zimbabwe, or a tourist, someone who came to the region on business, etc...(the earliest identified cases are from botswana-1, denmark-2 and south africa-3, all within a day of each other)

African scientists' leading theory is that omicron came from a person who has had multiple infections and their combination of poor health and partial acquired immunity allowed them to be repeatedly infected while forcing the virus to mutate around their immunity. so, it's the child of several separate varients/mutations.

and it's still not clear if this coronavirus certainly "started" in Wuhan. It seems so, but there were similar smaller clusters of infections a couple months before in Italy and a big outbreak there as the Wuhan one was winding down. The United States had the first truly national outbreak and is the center of international business and travel but would it be fair to say "America started worldwide covid?".

the reality is a pandemic connects us to each other. most every local cluster spreads the illness to people somewhere else. everyone who travels (work, business, education, tourism, religion, family...) risks being an ambassador of covid, and every community or nation that contains the virus keeps others out of risk.

let's hope it is quick and support and prayers to our medical providers taking on yet another wave