Just great. For years we had to deal with CUSA posters coming over here and running their mouths.

Now we get to deal with insane Sun Belt posters. Why won't it stop.

Do they not have a board they can go to, to discuss all of their inner conference workings. Why is the Sun belt even being discussed here.

this is my honest opinion of what i think is actually happening and educated guess of the future

the 1.4mil number used by 247 gastate is from a foia that a ulala beat writer got, my guess is that it accounts for more than the TV deal.... ive seen a FOIA of payout distribution before via BYU.. there is no "tv deal money" section in the accounting books when it reports to the government.. all media rights even beyond tv are just grouped together (Radio, advertisement etc..), it doesn't specify what tv providers individually distribute. I think he used a larger number that encompasses more than the tv deal and mistook that for just the tv deal

i think sunbelt is in the 500k range now (maybe a little more)...and will be in the 500k-1mil range after all of this is done (ESPN matching per school distribution up to a slight increase for recent performance, new members)

if the sunbelt was making that much more that c-usa, someone credible sources outside of a message board would have noted it..and/or sunbelt would have leaked it... conference payout is one of the cornerstones of conference bragging rights and superiority.. that number wouldnt only exist in a random 247 article by georgia st, in which he isnt even the direct source.. there also wouldn't be countless credible sources saying c-usa and sunbelt will be pretty much making the same thing as of yesterday

(10-24-2021 01:50 PM)pesik Wrote:  this is my honest opinion of what is actually happening and educated guess of the future

the 1.4mil number used by 247 gastate is from a foia that a ulala beat writer got, my guess is that it accounts for more than the TV deal.... ive seen a FOIA of payout distribution before via BYU.. there is no "tv deal money" section in the accounting books when it reports to the government.. all media rights even beyond tv are just grouped together (Radio, advertisement etc..), it doesn't specify what if from tv providers individually. I think he used a larger number that encompasses more than the tv deal and mistook that for just the tv deal

i think sunbelt is in the 500k range now (maybe a little more)...and will be in the 500k-1mil range after all of this is done (ESPN matching per school distribution up to a slight increase for recent performance, new members)

if the sunbelt was making that much more that c-usa, someone credible sources outside of a message board would have noted it..and/or sunbelt would have leaked it... conference payout is one of the cornerstones of conference bragging rights and superiority.. that number wouldnt only exist in a random 247 article by georgia st, in which he isnt even the direct source.. there also wouldn't be countless credible sources saying c-usa and sunbelt will be pretty much making the same thing as of yesterday

This is absolutely correct Pesik. People confuse total conference payouts with TV revenue. THIS HAPPENS ALL THE TIME. The Big payout numbers you see the major conference announce include ALL REVENUE. To include TV, NCAA tournament credits, Bowl Revenue, etc. I have seen this error made hundreds and hundreds of time on this very forum. It's a basic lack of understanding of how conference revenue works.

The Sun Belt might actually be paying out 1.4 mil in revenue to it's members. That doesn't mean all of that came from TV.

You all may be right. The $2 million figure seems unrealistic to me too. But then I realize UTSA, FAU, UNCC etc will be making that, and figure So Miss and Marshall should have equal or
greater value. I guess we will know soon.

(10-24-2021 02:09 PM)monarx Wrote:  You all may be right. The $2 million figure seems unrealistic to me too. But then I realize UTSA, FAU, UNCC etc will be making that, and figure So Miss and Marshall should have equal or
greater value. I guess we will know soon.

That’s false, if USM and Marshall had any value at all then they would be in the AAC. They have no market and no academics. They add no value, Arwsco being the genius that he is at least took the time and listen on who were the best options. I mean we don’t have to like the picks but if Aresco says this is the best of the rest than I do trust him.

(10-24-2021 01:11 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  I've also seen where SMU reached out to the MWC following the AAC's addition of North Texas. That was on the SMU board but I'm not sure exactly what came of it. If SMU and Tulsa were to leave, I imagine Wichita State would explore movement as well?

Realignment won't end here as the AAC reverts back to C-USA and former C-USA members who were left behind want upward mobility.

The Sun Belt has grown a lot stronger in brand, viewership, and performance since 2013 when Georgia Southern and App State were added. Then it exploded in 2020 which ended in a new contract with an increased payout and 40% increase in linear channel games was announced in May of 2021, I believe. The media deal was then again revised with the addition of Marshall, ODU, USM, and JMU. The reason being that App - Marshall alone generated around 1.1 million viewers in their Thursday night game. Their game on CBS the year before had well north of 1 million viewers. Marshall always had strong numbers on ESPN channels as well so I'd imagine ESPN is hedging that the following USM and Marshall once had still exists.

Then you add the Hampton Roads DMA and JMU's reach into the huge markets in Northern Virginia and it all begins to paint a picture that may help it make sense for you.

We absolutely did not reach out to the MWC

(10-24-2021 02:09 PM)monarx Wrote:  You all may be right. The $2 million figure seems unrealistic to me too. But then I realize UTSA, FAU, UNCC etc will be making that, and figure So Miss and Marshall should have equal or
greater value. I guess we will know soon.

UTSA, FAU, UNCC are making that on the backs of others...

sunbelt fans are saying So Miss and Marshall are the reason for an insane jump, a jump that is more than double the entirety of the old c-usa deal, by themselves

(10-24-2021 02:35 PM)Thewavefan Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 02:09 PM)monarx Wrote:  You all may be right. The $2 million figure seems unrealistic to me too. But then I realize UTSA, FAU, UNCC etc will be making that, and figure So Miss and Marshall should have equal or
greater value. I guess we will know soon.

That’s false, if USM and Marshall had any value at all then they would be in the AAC. They have no market and no academics. They add no value, Arwsco being the genius that he is at least took the time and listen on who were the best options. I mean we don’t have to like the picks but if Aresco says this is the best of the rest than I do trust him.

Marshall was very close. They 100% were in till it became clear that securing Texas was more important than we had thought.

I’d go as far as saying that Marshall has way more value than N Texas but we blocked the MWC by taking N Texas and wouldn’t have by taking Marshall.

This was strategy, not true value.

(10-24-2021 02:50 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 02:35 PM)Thewavefan Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 02:09 PM)monarx Wrote:  You all may be right. The $2 million figure seems unrealistic to me too. But then I realize UTSA, FAU, UNCC etc will be making that, and figure So Miss and Marshall should have equal or
greater value. I guess we will know soon.

That’s false, if USM and Marshall had any value at all then they would be in the AAC. They have no market and no academics. They add no value, Arwsco being the genius that he is at least took the time and listen on who were the best options. I mean we don’t have to like the picks but if Aresco says this is the best of the rest than I do trust him.

Marshall was very close. They 100% were in till it became clear that securing Texas was more important than we had thought.

I’d go as far as saying that Marshall has way more value than N Texas but we blocked the MWC by taking N Texas and wouldn’t have by taking Marshall.

This was strategy, not true value.

So let's say Memphis and SMU and South Florida or temple somehow leave. Would leave AAC with 11 teams and needing an Eastern team to get to 12

Is Marshall next up then in that scenario ?

I'd hope so as I wanted them in with us

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

(10-24-2021 03:02 PM)Ragu Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 02:50 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 02:35 PM)Thewavefan Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 02:09 PM)monarx Wrote:  You all may be right. The $2 million figure seems unrealistic to me too. But then I realize UTSA, FAU, UNCC etc will be making that, and figure So Miss and Marshall should have equal or
greater value. I guess we will know soon.

That’s false, if USM and Marshall had any value at all then they would be in the AAC. They have no market and no academics. They add no value, Arwsco being the genius that he is at least took the time and listen on who were the best options. I mean we don’t have to like the picks but if Aresco says this is the best of the rest than I do trust him.

Marshall was very close. They 100% were in till it became clear that securing Texas was more important than we had thought.

I’d go as far as saying that Marshall has way more value than N Texas but we blocked the MWC by taking N Texas and wouldn’t have by taking Marshall.

This was strategy, not true value.

So let's say Memphis and SMU and South Florida or temple somehow leave. Would leave AAC with 11 teams and needing an Eastern team to get to 12

Is Marshall next up then in that scenario ?

I'd hope so as I wanted them in with us

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

I believe the reason we added 3 Texas schools is to make CSU and AF a possibility later.
I fully expect the AAC to lose 2-3 more teams.

(10-24-2021 03:10 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 03:02 PM)Ragu Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 02:50 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 02:35 PM)Thewavefan Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 02:09 PM)monarx Wrote:  You all may be right. The $2 million figure seems unrealistic to me too. But then I realize UTSA, FAU, UNCC etc will be making that, and figure So Miss and Marshall should have equal or
greater value. I guess we will know soon.

That’s false, if USM and Marshall had any value at all then they would be in the AAC. They have no market and no academics. They add no value, Arwsco being the genius that he is at least took the time and listen on who were the best options. I mean we don’t have to like the picks but if Aresco says this is the best of the rest than I do trust him.

Marshall was very close. They 100% were in till it became clear that securing Texas was more important than we had thought.

I’d go as far as saying that Marshall has way more value than N Texas but we blocked the MWC by taking N Texas and wouldn’t have by taking Marshall.

This was strategy, not true value.

So let's say Memphis and SMU and South Florida or temple somehow leave. Would leave AAC with 11 teams and needing an Eastern team to get to 12

Is Marshall next up then in that scenario ?

I'd hope so as I wanted them in with us

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

I believe the reason we added 3 Texas schools is to make CSU and AF a possibility later.
I fully expect the AAC to lose 2-3 more teams.

That's a possibility. If Memphis and SMU are the only 2 to leave the league could simply stay at 12 . Also those teams may not want to come if those 2 leave

If the AAC goes east I'll hope for Marshall

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

(10-24-2021 01:05 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 11:43 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 10:25 AM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 09:26 AM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  According to whoever the dude is "in the know" on the GA State message board WSU left also. Where did we go??

A lot of people have made suppositions that Wichita State would be leaving.

The information about the payouts is directly related to his relationship with GSU's AD and the total has been corroborated by an AD in the West.

You don't spend time enough over there so I'm sure you don't believe it and that's fine. There are four or five insiders on the Sun Belt board alone.

The rundown, in a nutshell, is this. Most Sun Belt schools wanted to stay at 12, inviting only USM and Marshall. Marshall, App, and Coastal wanted ODU and JMU as well. However they didn't have the votes because the total revenue from ESPN had not increased to a point to make 14 palatable to the rest of the conference. I suppose Gill and/or League Presidents sent their proposal over to ESPN who then upped the value of the Sun Belt contract to make it palatable to make a 14 team league.

Most of the Sun Belt was wary of 14 because it seems to be the point at which all good things are lost. WAC, C-USA, etc. It doesn't offer flexibility in additions in the future, you're forced to sit and hope you keep everyone. And you water down your overall value.

So to combat that ESPN came back because the Val proposition of ODU and JMU, along with USM and Marshall, raised the Sun Belt to a level commiserate with that of the AAC additions.

Like it or not, that's the truth. The Sun Belt 10 have been better than the 6 that the AAC just added. Higher viewership, similar average attendance though the Sun Belt is higher at the top. UTSA is a recent revelation so I'm not really considering them in that talk.

Anyway, once your Big 3 leave, ODU will be in Year 3 of their new coaching staff, USM will be as well, and Marshall will likely keep on keeping on. Add that to App, Louisiana, Coastal, and Arkansas State under Butch Jones, a USA under Kane Womack, and a ULM under Terry Bowden/Rich Rodriguez, you get a football conference likely to be better than the AAC.

Basketball there is work to do, I won't dispute that. Baseball is probably close. Sun Belt wins Softball hands down.

Not sure what other sports people want to look at?

So—your working theory is that the top of the Sunbelt will stay strong and all the new teams will improve while asserting the current remaining RANKED top of the AAC is worse that the UNRANKED top of the Sunbelt and that none of the newbie AAC programs will improve…oh yeah—and because it doesn’t fit your narrative—-youre just going to toss RANKED UTSA out of the calculation because it’s a “recent rvelation” Lol. Ok. Nothing like not letting actual facts get in the way of a fantasy narrative. Of course, you also believe ESPN renegotiated a deal with 10 years still left on it to give the Sunbelt a 400% increase in revenue. What is the motivation for ESPN to do that?

When talking about UTSA I was referring to attendance, not performance. The new AAC programs may perform just fine. The argument was that the Sun Belt doesn't have matching linear channel games or payouts. Multiple unrelated sources, one who works with Arkansas State's Arhletics Department and one who works closely with Georgia State's Athletics Department disagrees with you. These people have no incentive to lie and have been correct on most realignment topics. The GSU source has always been correct about media matters relating to payouts and contracts.

So no, you're not correct in your assumption. What is ESPN's motivation? To kill off C-USA and essentially buy new "properties", if you want to think of programs within a conference as such.

Once again, I have sources who are credible, you have opinions. Choose to believe it or not, news will be breaking on Tuesday and Thursday so you can choose to not do the research and look around or you can just wait for the news to be announced. ESPN's reporting isn't the end all be all. The Arkansas State source told us after Sun Belt Media Days that USM would be moving to the Sun Belt as talks had been going on since winter, and informal talks had been going on for years.

App State had been in talks with Marshall and ODU for years to try to find a way to create an Eastern based conference that included some AAC schools but apparently the AAC schools approached thought that they were too good for such a thing. Maybe they were considering the remaining east coast schools will get $7 million per year from ESPN.

So again, choose to believe it or not. You're only bringing your opinion to the table. These people breaking this information are connected closely to university Athletic Departments and have been proven to have inside information going back at least to 2012 when the last round of realignment was coming.

Guys on a message board are not "sources". You also failed to answer my question. What is the motivation for ESPN to tear up a 8 year deal with 6 years left on it and award the Sunbelt a 400% pay increase? Lets be logical---you sign a 12 month agreement with your cable company for $100 a month. Two months in---you find you are really enjoying your new cable package---so the first thing you decide to do is call up Comcast and ask them if you can tear up the current 12 month agreement because you would really like to start paying Comcast $400 a month. Does that make sense to you? Yeah--me neither. But thats basically what your "sources" are claiming just happened to the Sunbelt.

Now---do you want to know what probably did happen? The deal was opened up to allow 2 additions at the current pay out (and it sounds like it was reopened again to have that apply to up to 4 additional teams rather than just 2). It was also EXTENDED by 3 years when it was opened---and the added 3 years probably include a pay bump covering that added period. My guess is that by the end of that 3 year extension---the Sunbelt teams WILL be getting 2 million each. That---I can absolutely believe because it makes sense. What you're describing---where ESPN just tossed away a valid agreement with the better part of a decade left on it so they can give the Sunbelt an immediate 400% raise does NOT make sense. So no---I dont believe your little message board sources---but we will know for sure in a couple of years when I pull up the public tax filings and I'll let you know then.

(10-20-2021 02:21 PM)ArmyBlazer Wrote:  

(10-20-2021 02:18 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(10-20-2021 02:16 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  Looks like they want to take Marshall, Southern Miss, ODU and James Madison.

That would leave CUSA with 5 members.

I’m surprised they would take james Madison over Liberty. And I would have thought La Tech would have been a better choice than ODU.


Sent from the Warp via the ruinous powers of Chaos!

Apparently La Tech has burned a lot of bridges with the Sun Belt folks. Maybe the Sun Belt will be empathetic and throw them a life raft, but I could also see Tech getting the cold shoulder.

That's exactly what LaTech got, the cold shoulder.

(10-24-2021 10:20 AM)pesik Wrote:  your entire sources are not credible people ...a message board poster??????

I think when your conference is made up of towns without newspapers or TV stations, you probably do rely on message board posters as the authoritative voice.

(10-24-2021 03:02 PM)Ragu Wrote:  So let's say Memphis and SMU and South Florida or temple somehow leave. Would leave AAC with 11 teams and needing an Eastern team to get to 12

Is Marshall next up then in that scenario ?

I'd hope so as I wanted them in with us

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

It will be Ga St. barring some scandal and fall out. No other logical choice East.

(10-24-2021 06:21 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 03:02 PM)Ragu Wrote:  So let's say Memphis and SMU and South Florida or temple somehow leave. Would leave AAC with 11 teams and needing an Eastern team to get to 12

Is Marshall next up then in that scenario ?

I'd hope so as I wanted them in with us

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

It will be Ga St. barring some scandal and fall out. No other logical choice East.

Not at all what I heard. Georgia State never was really in the mix. Too many issues. No viewership and budget sucks plus didn’t have the resources to increase it. Marshall was close and competitive. Just got edged out..
G state… I never heard there name anywhere. I truly believe Marshall and Buffalo were mentioned but I never heard Georgia.

Well this veered a little off topic, but I was reading this thread and earlier several people suggested CUSA reach out to UConn and UMass for football only memberships. Another poster mentioned that doesn't help CUSA with their need for all-sport members. Something I've seen bantered about is now that Texas Arlington and Little Rock will be leaving the Sun Belt, they could just join CUSA. CUSA is in need of teams and UTA and Little Rock are in need of new homes. They could be the full member and UConn and UMass could be the football only affiliate members. That'd give them a good base and they can expand as needed from there.

WKU
MTSU
FIU
La Tech
UTEP
NMSU
Texas Arlington
Little Rock
UConn football only
UMass football only

(10-24-2021 08:15 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  Well this veered a little off topic, but I was reading this thread and earlier several people suggested CUSA reach out to UConn and UMass for football only memberships. Another poster mentioned that doesn't help CUSA with their need for all-sport members. Something I've seen bantered about is now that Texas Arlington and Little Rock will be leaving the Sun Belt, they could just join CUSA. CUSA is in need of teams and UTA and Little Rock are in need of new homes. They could be the full member and UConn and UMass could be the football only affiliate members. That'd give them a good base and they can expand as needed from there.

WKU
MTSU
FIU
La Tech
UTEP
NMSU
Texas Arlington
Little Rock
UConn football only
UMass football only

I am not certain they can be a full member without football.I believe they need 8 football playing full members. Correct me if I am wrong but I believe that’s the rule.

(10-24-2021 08:15 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  Well this veered a little off topic, but I was reading this thread and earlier several people suggested CUSA reach out to UConn and UMass for football only memberships. Another poster mentioned that doesn't help CUSA with their need for all-sport members. Something I've seen bantered about is now that Texas Arlington and Little Rock will be leaving the Sun Belt, they could just join CUSA. CUSA is in need of teams and UTA and Little Rock are in need of new homes. They could be the full member and UConn and UMass could be the football only affiliate members. That'd give them a good base and they can expand as needed from there.

WKU
MTSU
FIU
La Tech
UTEP
NMSU
Texas Arlington
Little Rock
UConn football only
UMass football only

Apparently UCONN wants to be the next BYU and is going to try independence and P5 scheduling, however bad that outcome might be.

(10-24-2021 08:22 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 08:15 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  Well this veered a little off topic, but I was reading this thread and earlier several people suggested CUSA reach out to UConn and UMass for football only memberships. Another poster mentioned that doesn't help CUSA with their need for all-sport members. Something I've seen bantered about is now that Texas Arlington and Little Rock will be leaving the Sun Belt, they could just join CUSA. CUSA is in need of teams and UTA and Little Rock are in need of new homes. They could be the full member and UConn and UMass could be the football only affiliate members. That'd give them a good base and they can expand as needed from there.

WKU
MTSU
FIU
La Tech
UTEP
NMSU
Texas Arlington
Little Rock
UConn football only
UMass football only

I am not certain they can be a full member without football.I believe they need 8 football playing full members. Correct me if I am wrong but I believe that’s the rule.

You are correct.