(09-23-2021 11:18 AM)bill dazzle Wrote: Temple is an interesting animal in the AAC, much like Navy, Memphis and Wichita. Those four don't "fit" in the league as well now that UC, UH and UCF are leaving (Temple even less so with the past loss of UConn).
The reality is that each of the four might stay in the league long term 1. because it might not have a better option (see UM and WSU) or 2. because the AAC will be as good as any other option (see Temple and Navy).
The AAC still has nine universities, each of which brings at least one element (football, basketball, baseball, academics, vibrant and large-city locations) of "national note" to the table. (To be clear, the only football program of national significance left is that of Navy — and that might be the only one even including UC, UH and UCF.)
East Carolina (baseball and a med school)
Temple (basketball and Philly)
Navy (military academy with strong football history)
USF (Vastly underrated, and strong, academics with med school; Tampa)
Memphis (hoops and gritty/cool city locale)
SMU (All-time top 80 or so in hoops, academics and Dallas)
Tulsa (All-time top 80 or so hoops and academics)
Tulane (baseball, academics and NOLA)
Wichita (baseball and All-time top 80 or so in basketball)
That is a strong nine-member core around which to build — and could be sufficient in terms of motivating Temple, Navy and Wichita (each of which would potentially have other league options) to stay.
Solid point. Although a couple of these teams (Memphis and USF or SMU) are likely picks in a second round of Big 12 expansion, there is a solid core of 6 AAC schools that would have no reason to leave unless invited to join a P5 conference.
The key for them is to reload with the best possible replacements. If they fail to add enough quality FB and BB programs, they could easily lose their stature as a Major 7 conference, and would begin to be referred to as a "mid-major" conference and just a run-of-the-mill G5.
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When evaluating three of the schools that the AAC has been showing interest in, according to Dodd, none of the three that may be most interested has a FB program that can compare with Houston's, not to speak of Cincinnati's or UCF's.
Air Force has had the most FB success of the three, but they've only won 8+ games in four seasons since 2011 (2014, '15, '16, & '19). The other seasons, they only won an average of 5 games/yr. They played in the most (6) bowl games and won half of them.
CSU has had the second most success since 2011, playing in 5 bowl games. They won 8 and 10 games in 2013 and 2014, and they went 7-6 in 2015, '16, & '17. However, they only averaged 3.5 wins in 2018 and '19.
CSU has also had a much stronger football legacy than UAB has had, including MWC conference championship teams, 10 nationally-ranked teams, and three teams that finished in the final AP top 25.
UAB trails AF and CSU, with only 3 bowl games since 2011 (record: 1-2). They've only had four teams with winning records during that period. Their only consolation is they've won more games in the past 4 seasons than AF and CSU have.
No UAB FB team has ever been ranked in the top 25 for even a single week.
It seems like a h*ll of a gamble to stake the future of a conference on a school that has lost far more games than it has won in 23 FBS seasons, simply because they averaged 8.5 wins/yr over the past four seasons - -
in the CUSA.
Their only period of football success was achieved by their current HC. Every other UAB FB HC finished their careers at UAB with a losing record. There's no reason to think that
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If you've noticed that their football track records are disappointing, it gets worse:
Neither Air Force, nor CSU, nor UAB has a NCAA tournament quality BB program.
UAB has only played in one NCAA tournament in the past decade, seven years ago. They've only won more than 20 games/year twice since 2011. One of those teams was last year's UAB team, but they weren't ranked highly enough to play in the NIT.
CSU has fared a little better than UAB, but that's not saying much. Their teams played in the 2012 and 2013 NCAA tourneys, but that's ancient history now.
CSU's last three tournament appearances were in the NIT (in 2015, 2017, and 2021). In 8 seasons as a Head Coach, CSU's current HC, entering his 4th season has never taken a team to the NCAA tournament. Hopefully, he'll get there, but he hasn't yet.
All that can be said about Air Force's basketball program is that it won't make it any easier for the American to remain one of the Major 7 basketball conferences.
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If these three schools are going to be the 3 replacements for UC, UCF, Houston, and UConn, then the AAC may be on the verge of committing a major blunder and has missed a golden opportunity.
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The truth is that, of the three, Air Force is the only school of the three that can give the AAC anything close what it will be losing.
On its own merits, Air Force is the only one that is worth adding.
The idea of adding CSU was only part of a package deal that Mike Aresco thought could persuade Boise & SDSU to join the conference.
If his gambit fails, the AAC could be stuck with CSU instead of a consistently good FB program such as Appalachian State or Marshall.
For example, compare UAB, Marshall, and Louisiana Tech's FB records over the past decade:
Year.Marshall UAB..Louisiana Tech
2020...7-3.....6-3.......5-5
2019...
8-5.....
9-5.......
10-3
2018...
9-4.....
11-3......
8-5
2017...
8-5.....
8-5.......7-6
2016...3-9.....DNP......
9-5
2015...
10-3....DNP......
9-4
2014...
13-1....6-6.......
9-5
2013...
10-4....2-10.....4-8
2012...5-7.....3-9.......
9-3
2011...7-6.....3-9.......
8-5
AvgWs: 8.0....6.0.......7.8 wins per year
Not only that, but in addition, Marshall's and Louisiana Tech's basketball teams have been more successful than UABs has been in the past few years.
Marshall averaged 21.25 BB wins/yr from 2016-2020, won the 2019 CIT tournament championship, and played in the 2018 NCAA tournament, while UAB averaged only 19.0 wins and didn't play in either the NCAA or NIT.
Louisiana Tech averaged 21.5 BB wins/yr from 2016-2020 and advanced to the semifinals of the 2021 National Invitational Tournament. They also won the NIT third place game, where they defeating Colorado State.
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These comparisons make the point clear: UAB is not one of the strongest FB and BB schools. Neither is CSU (which was only included to bring SDSU/Boise). Air Force is the only school that really belongs on the list.
What a colossal failure it would be to add those two schools when the conference could do so much better.