(04-23-2021 08:26 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Actually, I've been to Knott County, KY (coal mining area). Those were some of the poorest people I've even seen in the United States. Besides that, now that I think of it, I doubt cable was even an option for them (satellite maybe, but not cable).

I concede your point.

I know Knott County well. My family is from Johnson County, just to the north about 45 miles.

Not to derail the thread too much but Knott County is the home of legendary mountain basketball with Carr Creek High School. Some of the history can be found here.

https://visiteasternkentucky.org/carr-creek-basketball

A high school with only 18 boys, with no indoor gym, playing in bid overalls and winning.

Speaking to the OP, if you were going to downsize by 2 to increase everyone else’s share, I’d imagine that since Duke is well aligned at the heart of the conference’s power structure that WF and BC would be the two sacrificial lambs and then the divisions would need realigned.

Would the ACC really resort to that option though? It’s not like there hasn’t been a precedent for a cadre of schools abandoning a few of the weaker ones by reorganizing—the ACC core did it to the SoCon in 1953.

(04-26-2021 11:08 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Speaking to the OP, if you were going to downsize by 2 to increase everyone else’s share, I’d imagine that since Duke is well aligned at the heart of the conference’s power structure that WF and BC would be the two sacrificial lambs and then the divisions would need realigned.

Would the ACC really resort to that option though? It’s not like there hasn’t been a precedent for a cadre of schools abandoning a few of the weaker ones by reorganizing—the ACC core did it to the SoCon in 1953.

No rush on that. It would look bad to force someone out in football and then need a football team because so many schools dropped sports. Let's see how 'Pay for Play' and NIL work out first, then we can make draconian decisions on whether to oust schools from the conference.

1953 is way different than 2020. Other than Temple (a Football only member) being ousted from the BEFC, can anyone name a time when a Major conference kicked a school out of there conference in the last 30 years? I don't think so.

(04-26-2021 12:00 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 11:08 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Speaking to the OP, if you were going to downsize by 2 to increase everyone else’s share, I’d imagine that since Duke is well aligned at the heart of the conference’s power structure that WF and BC would be the two sacrificial lambs and then the divisions would need realigned.

Would the ACC really resort to that option though? It’s not like there hasn’t been a precedent for a cadre of schools abandoning a few of the weaker ones by reorganizing—the ACC core did it to the SoCon in 1953.

No rush on that. It would look bad to force someone out in football and then need a football team because so many schools dropped sports. Let's see how 'Pay for Play' and NIL work out first, then we can make draconian decisions on whether to oust schools from the conference.

1953 is way different than 2020. Other than Temple (a Football only member) being ousted from the BEFC, can anyone name a time when a Major conference kicked a school out of there conference in the last 30 years? I don't think so.

Yes. When the SWC merged with the Big 8, four teams were left out: Houston, Rice, TCU and SMU.

(04-26-2021 01:03 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 12:00 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 11:08 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Speaking to the OP, if you were going to downsize by 2 to increase everyone else’s share, I’d imagine that since Duke is well aligned at the heart of the conference’s power structure that WF and BC would be the two sacrificial lambs and then the divisions would need realigned.

Would the ACC really resort to that option though? It’s not like there hasn’t been a precedent for a cadre of schools abandoning a few of the weaker ones by reorganizing—the ACC core did it to the SoCon in 1953.

No rush on that. It would look bad to force someone out in football and then need a football team because so many schools dropped sports. Let's see how 'Pay for Play' and NIL work out first, then we can make draconian decisions on whether to oust schools from the conference.

1953 is way different than 2020. Other than Temple (a Football only member) being ousted from the BEFC, can anyone name a time when a Major conference kicked a school out of there conference in the last 30 years? I don't think so.

Yes. When the SWC merged with the Big 8, four teams were left out: Houston, Rice, TCU and SMU.

The bottom three in the ACC are an easy call. Things get messy choosing the next. Cuse and Pitt are [] close to Cavman. And both actually try in football unlike Cavman.

(04-26-2021 01:19 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 01:03 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 12:00 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 11:08 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Speaking to the OP, if you were going to downsize by 2 to increase everyone else’s share, I’d imagine that since Duke is well aligned at the heart of the conference’s power structure that WF and BC would be the two sacrificial lambs and then the divisions would need realigned.

Would the ACC really resort to that option though? It’s not like there hasn’t been a precedent for a cadre of schools abandoning a few of the weaker ones by reorganizing—the ACC core did it to the SoCon in 1953.

No rush on that. It would look bad to force someone out in football and then need a football team because so many schools dropped sports. Let's see how 'Pay for Play' and NIL work out first, then we can make draconian decisions on whether to oust schools from the conference.

1953 is way different than 2020. Other than Temple (a Football only member) being ousted from the BEFC, can anyone name a time when a Major conference kicked a school out of there conference in the last 30 years? I don't think so.

Yes. When the SWC merged with the Big 8, four teams were left out: Houston, Rice, TCU and SMU.

The bottom three in the ACC are an easy call. Things get messy choosing the next. Cuse and Pitt are [] close to Cavman. And both actually try in football unlike Cavman.

I really like JR's scenario:
UNC and Duke to the SEC.
UVA and Pitt (or 'Cuse) to the B1G.
Wake to non-football status, leaving one ACC football team - NC State - in North Carolina.

(04-26-2021 02:07 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 01:19 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 01:03 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 12:00 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 11:08 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Speaking to the OP, if you were going to downsize by 2 to increase everyone else’s share, I’d imagine that since Duke is well aligned at the heart of the conference’s power structure that WF and BC would be the two sacrificial lambs and then the divisions would need realigned.

Would the ACC really resort to that option though? It’s not like there hasn’t been a precedent for a cadre of schools abandoning a few of the weaker ones by reorganizing—the ACC core did it to the SoCon in 1953.

No rush on that. It would look bad to force someone out in football and then need a football team because so many schools dropped sports. Let's see how 'Pay for Play' and NIL work out first, then we can make draconian decisions on whether to oust schools from the conference.

1953 is way different than 2020. Other than Temple (a Football only member) being ousted from the BEFC, can anyone name a time when a Major conference kicked a school out of there conference in the last 30 years? I don't think so.

Yes. When the SWC merged with the Big 8, four teams were left out: Houston, Rice, TCU and SMU.

The bottom three in the ACC are an easy call. Things get messy choosing the next. Cuse and Pitt are [] close to Cavman. And both actually try in football unlike Cavman.

I really like JR's scenario:
UNC and Duke to the SEC.
UVA and Pitt (or 'Cuse) to the B1G.
Wake to non-football status, leaving one ACC football team - NC State - in North Carolina.

Duke University is not going to attempt to play football in the Southeastern Conference. If Duke is not playing P-5 football a good chunk of the ACC's problem is solved. Wake's level of commitment to P-5 football is much greater than Duke's, Virginia's or BC's and Syracuse's when you control for size.

The sad irony of all this is that Duke tried to get out of P-5 football and the conference would not let them because they wanted to punish Duke for running their FB program as a parasite on the backs UNC, State, Clemson, and UVa.

Navy Football would be a positive replacement for Duke Football.

(04-22-2021 05:22 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Using this data ultimately from the WSJ: https://csnbbs.com/thread-916418-post-17...id17265241

Quote:Clemson / 12.5% of Conference Value / $56,350,000 value of media share
Florida St./ 12.2% of Conference Value / $54,997,600 value of media share
Virginia Tech / 11.7% of Conference Value / $52,743,600 value of media share
Georgia Tech / 9.0% of Conference Value / $40,572,000 value of media share
Miami / 8.1% of Conference Value / $36,514,800 value of media share
N.C. St./ 7.5% of Conference Value / $33,810,000 value of media share
Louisville / 7.4% of Conference Value / $33,359,200 value of media share
North Carolina / 6.5% of Conference Value / $29,302,000 value of media share
Virginia / 5.7% of Conference Value / $25,695,600 value of media share
Syracuse / 5.1% of Conference Value / $22,990,800 value of media share
Pittsburgh / 4.8% of Conference Value / $21,638,400 value of media share
Boston College / 3.4% of Conference Value / $15,327,200 value of media share
Wake Forest / 3.2% of Conference Value / $14,425,600 value of media share
Duke / 2.8% of Conference Value / $12,622,400 value of media share
* Notre Dame's value is 5th nationally so if a full member of the ACC their % of Conference value would be 27.7% and would dwarf the rest of the ACC.

Option 1: Add ND as a full member
I think that's pretty obvious to everybody. It would be worth a substantial amount of money but ND wants no part of it. Probably $10m+/team/year.


Option 2: Cut football ballast. GT received $32.5m in 2020 from ACC media disbursements. Assuming everybody else got the same and football is 80% of the revenue ... the football shares are worth $26m/yr/team. Remove Duke FB. Remove Wake FB. That's $52m back in to the ACC divided by 12 = $4.3m/yr pay raise. If you also removed BC that would be $6.5m/yr pay raise. Those are somewhat drastic "anger the fan base" type moves which only yield a modest increase.


Option 3: Westward expansion.

Quote:Big 12
Texas / 31.3% of Conference Value / $112,680,000 value of media share (no T3)
Oklahoma / 25.0% of Conference Value / $90,000,000 value of media share (no T3)
Kansas St. / 7.8% of Conference Value / $28,080,000 value of media share
Oklahoma St. / 7.7% of Conference Value / $27,720,000 value of media share
Texas Tech / 6.9% of Conference Value / $24,840,000 value of media share
Kansas / 5.9% of Conference Value / $21,240,000 value of media share
T.C.U. / 5.4% of Conference Value / $19,440,000 value of media share
Iowa St. / 5.5% of Conference Value / $19,080,000 value of media share
Baylor / 3.0% of Conference Value / $10,800,000 value of media share
West Virginia / 1.7% of Conference Value / $6,120,000 value of media share

Not a lot of help except at the very top. That Kansas State is worth that much more than Kansas says everything about football's dominance in revenue. Kansas State is effectively a supersized DII school that has never done much of anything until Bill Snyder treated the JuCo ranks as his personal annual talent draft and turned KState football into a respectable program. There aren't many TV sets in Kansas either. And yet they easily surpass hoops blue blood Kansas. Presumably Texas requires Texas Tech to come with it and Oklahoma requires Oklahoma State to come with it. That dampens the impact but it's still a pretty substantial bump. Probably $10m+/team/year.

West Virginia ... wow. I'm sure they'd help increase the gate at Pitt and VT and maybe UVA. But they might end up being a boat anchor in TV land due to the WV diaspora and not many TVs in TV. Perhaps West Virginia is the Wyoming of the east.



Option 4: Fuhrer Mickey Merger
Disney gets tired of paying for 5 expensive competing sets of poorly divided conference assets in college sports and decides to go all in on the biggest markets in a bid to have a monopoly on them for advertising and carriage rates. This means merging the Big 12 and SEC and ACC together and redistributing the teams into tight geographies driven by history, tradition, rivalry, and viewership potential. Note this could very well also involve casting aside from football ballast, even in the SEC.

Quote:Alabama / 13.5% of Conference Value / $87,885,000 value of media share
Georgia / 11.9% of Conference Value / $77,469,000 value of media share
Auburn / 11.6% of Conference Value / $75,516,000 value of media share
Louisiana St./ 11.4% of Conference Value / $74,214,000 value of media share
Tennessee / 9.7% of Conference Value / $63,147,000 value of media share
Florida / 8.5% of Conference Value / $55,335,000 value of media share
Texas A&M / 7.2% of Conference Value / $46,872,000 value of media share
Arkansas/ 6.2% of Conference Value / $40,362,000 value of media share
South Carolina / 6.2% of Conference Value / $40,362,000 value of media share
Mississippi / 4.6% of Conference Value / $29,946,000 value of media share
Kentucky / 3.6% of Conference Value / $23,436,000 value of media share
Mississippi St./ 3.0% of Conference Value / $19,530,000 value of media share
Missouri / 1.6% of Conference Value / $10,416,000 value of media share
Vanderbilt / 1.1% of Conference Value / $7,161,000 value of media share

That's a rabbit hole where all possibilities open up. But in general it would involve blending together the SEC West and Big 12 South and the SEC East and ACC South. This recaptures a lot of lost high value inventory not currently played due to conference alignment.




Option 5: You made it, you keep it.
No more equal payouts from the ACC. What you earned is what you keep. So you don't have to scroll back up:

Quote:Clemson / 12.5% of Conference Value / $56,350,000 value of media share
Florida St./ 12.2% of Conference Value / $54,997,600 value of media share
Virginia Tech / 11.7% of Conference Value / $52,743,600 value of media share
Georgia Tech / 9.0% of Conference Value / $40,572,000 value of media share
Miami / 8.1% of Conference Value / $36,514,800 value of media share
N.C. St./ 7.5% of Conference Value / $33,810,000 value of media share
Louisville / 7.4% of Conference Value / $33,359,200 value of media share
North Carolina / 6.5% of Conference Value / $29,302,000 value of media share
Virginia / 5.7% of Conference Value / $25,695,600 value of media share
Syracuse / 5.1% of Conference Value / $22,990,800 value of media share
Pittsburgh / 4.8% of Conference Value / $21,638,400 value of media share
Boston College / 3.4% of Conference Value / $15,327,200 value of media share
Wake Forest / 3.2% of Conference Value / $14,425,600 value of media share
Duke / 2.8% of Conference Value / $12,622,400 value of media share
* Notre Dame's value is 5th nationally so if a full member of the ACC their % of Conference value would be 27.7% and would dwarf the rest of the ACC.

This would result in FSU, Clemson, GT, VT, and Miami getting a substantial pay increase. NC State and Louisville would be about a wash. Everybody else would receive a pay cut. Three teams would see their pay more than halved, and 6 (almost 7) teams would see a 8 figure pay cut. This means for this to happen a clear majority of the conference would have to vote to willingly take a pay cut. And nearly 1/3 of them a steep painful pay cut.




I think that covers all the actual realistic scenarios aside from having a massive donation infusion from fans/boosters/alumni to get your facilities and staffs to elite level to then win at an elite level to then expand the fan base and hopefully keep the feedback loop going. In the ACC this should be called "The IPTAY Approach".

I like the option 5. This option can potentially make the ACC an attractive destination for other schools. If PSU can make a comparable money in the ACC, why not join the ACC and play some old rivals?

(04-26-2021 03:10 PM)Statefan Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 02:07 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 01:19 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 01:03 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 12:00 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  No rush on that. It would look bad to force someone out in football and then need a football team because so many schools dropped sports. Let's see how 'Pay for Play' and NIL work out first, then we can make draconian decisions on whether to oust schools from the conference.

1953 is way different than 2020. Other than Temple (a Football only member) being ousted from the BEFC, can anyone name a time when a Major conference kicked a school out of there conference in the last 30 years? I don't think so.

Yes. When the SWC merged with the Big 8, four teams were left out: Houston, Rice, TCU and SMU.

The bottom three in the ACC are an easy call. Things get messy choosing the next. Cuse and Pitt are [] close to Cavman. And both actually try in football unlike Cavman.

I really like JR's scenario:
UNC and Duke to the SEC.
UVA and Pitt (or 'Cuse) to the B1G.
Wake to non-football status, leaving one ACC football team - NC State - in North Carolina.

Duke University is not going to attempt to play football in the Southeastern Conference. If Duke is not playing P-5 football a good chunk of the ACC's problem is solved. Wake's level of commitment to P-5 football is much greater than Duke's, Virginia's or BC's and Syracuse's when you control for size.

The sad irony of all this is that Duke tried to get out of P-5 football and the conference would not let them because they wanted to punish Duke for running their FB program as a parasite on the backs UNC, State, Clemson, and UVa.

Navy Football would be a positive replacement for Duke Football.

Statefan, please elaborate on what you mean by "control for size"

(04-26-2021 03:28 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 03:10 PM)Statefan Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 02:07 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 01:19 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 01:03 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Yes. When the SWC merged with the Big 8, four teams were left out: Houston, Rice, TCU and SMU.

The bottom three in the ACC are an easy call. Things get messy choosing the next. Cuse and Pitt are [] close to Cavman. And both actually try in football unlike Cavman.

I really like JR's scenario:
UNC and Duke to the SEC.
UVA and Pitt (or 'Cuse) to the B1G.
Wake to non-football status, leaving one ACC football team - NC State - in North Carolina.

Duke University is not going to attempt to play football in the Southeastern Conference. If Duke is not playing P-5 football a good chunk of the ACC's problem is solved. Wake's level of commitment to P-5 football is much greater than Duke's, Virginia's or BC's and Syracuse's when you control for size.

The sad irony of all this is that Duke tried to get out of P-5 football and the conference would not let them because they wanted to punish Duke for running their FB program as a parasite on the backs UNC, State, Clemson, and UVa.

Navy Football would be a positive replacement for Duke Football.

Statefan, please elaborate on what you mean by "control for size"

I believe what he's saying is that since your enrollment is 6 times bigger than WF, you do not have 6 times the commitment to football as WF.

(04-26-2021 03:32 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 03:28 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 03:10 PM)Statefan Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 02:07 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 01:19 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  The bottom three in the ACC are an easy call. Things get messy choosing the next. Cuse and Pitt are [] close to Cavman. And both actually try in football unlike Cavman.

I really like JR's scenario:
UNC and Duke to the SEC.
UVA and Pitt (or 'Cuse) to the B1G.
Wake to non-football status, leaving one ACC football team - NC State - in North Carolina.

Duke University is not going to attempt to play football in the Southeastern Conference. If Duke is not playing P-5 football a good chunk of the ACC's problem is solved. Wake's level of commitment to P-5 football is much greater than Duke's, Virginia's or BC's and Syracuse's when you control for size.

The sad irony of all this is that Duke tried to get out of P-5 football and the conference would not let them because they wanted to punish Duke for running their FB program as a parasite on the backs UNC, State, Clemson, and UVa.

Navy Football would be a positive replacement for Duke Football.

Statefan, please elaborate on what you mean by "control for size"

I believe what he's saying is that since your enrollment is 6 times bigger than WF, you do not have 6 times the commitment to football as WF.

Well, I certainly hope thats not his argument.

(04-26-2021 03:28 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 03:10 PM)Statefan Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 02:07 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 01:19 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 01:03 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Yes. When the SWC merged with the Big 8, four teams were left out: Houston, Rice, TCU and SMU.

The bottom three in the ACC are an easy call. Things get messy choosing the next. Cuse and Pitt are [] close to Cavman. And both actually try in football unlike Cavman.

I really like JR's scenario:
UNC and Duke to the SEC.
UVA and Pitt (or 'Cuse) to the B1G.
Wake to non-football status, leaving one ACC football team - NC State - in North Carolina.

Duke University is not going to attempt to play football in the Southeastern Conference. If Duke is not playing P-5 football a good chunk of the ACC's problem is solved. Wake's level of commitment to P-5 football is much greater than Duke's, Virginia's or BC's and Syracuse's when you control for size.

The sad irony of all this is that Duke tried to get out of P-5 football and the conference would not let them because they wanted to punish Duke for running their FB program as a parasite on the backs UNC, State, Clemson, and UVa.

Navy Football would be a positive replacement for Duke Football.

Statefan, please elaborate on what you mean by "control for size"

WF's alumni association is tiny compared to FSU's or Pitt's or UNC's. Even then those are tiny compare to B10 and P12 schools. I crunched those numbers in a post here a few years ago and can't find it, but unless you know WF (and God knows I do since they are in my wallet) it is difficult to understand how small they are even compared to Duke. They almost always overachieve. Another way to express this is the main endowment or the endowment just related to athletic scholarships. Duke has all the money in the world. UVa and ND do not have all the money, but most. UNC, BC, and Pitt have money. Duke grossly underspends what it could spend on football. If they chose they could have a top 10 program - they do not.

Clemson amazingly overpunches it weight for football. BC, Syracuse, UVa, UNC, and NC State do just enough to get by. One of the problems is that spending at NC State, Duke, and UNC are compared directly in the same papers, and it becomes a poltiical issue when those numbers move in certain ways.

Point is, no one tries harder than WF other than Clemson.

As I have said a number of times, a University's overall endowment is an indication of how much money they can raise across the spectrum of the University if they decide to do so. Duke is not going to spend $45 million a year on football, although they could easily do that and do that without touching either of the two big endowments. What a university CAN do and what it does are two different things.

Cow colleges that are land grants and without a history of wealth making programs in the graduate schools or scientific patents in conjunction with WWI, WWII, and the Cold War all lag.

ND has a 12 billion dollar endowment and 13K students in a private school where they can do as they please.
Duke has over 10 billion in endowments and 15K students in a private school where they can do as they please.
UVa has a 7.2 billion endowment and 25K students and can do pretty much as they please.
UNC has a 3.7 billion endowment and 30K students and is under some scrutiny
NC State has a 1.5 billion endowment and 36K students and is under a great deal of scrutiny
Syracuse has a 1.4 billion endowment and 22K students and I don't know what oversight they labor under other than it appears more onerous than Duke or ND, but less than NC State.
WF has a 1.35 billion endowment and just 8K students and can do as they please
Clemson has only a .8 billion endowment and just 25K students and can do pretty much as they please

1. Actual money matters
2. Access to getting money matters
3. The ability to spend money as you deem fit matters
4. The actual ideation to spend money a certain way matters
5. Spending actual money matters

I'm sure I could research and write up some sort of algorithm that explains some of what happens but money begets money which begets success which begets money. Winning begets money and viewers. Money and viewers begets more money and more viewers which begets more winning.

(04-26-2021 03:59 PM)Statefan Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 03:28 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 03:10 PM)Statefan Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 02:07 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 01:19 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  The bottom three in the ACC are an easy call. Things get messy choosing the next. Cuse and Pitt are [] close to Cavman. And both actually try in football unlike Cavman.

I really like JR's scenario:
UNC and Duke to the SEC.
UVA and Pitt (or 'Cuse) to the B1G.
Wake to non-football status, leaving one ACC football team - NC State - in North Carolina.

Duke University is not going to attempt to play football in the Southeastern Conference. If Duke is not playing P-5 football a good chunk of the ACC's problem is solved. Wake's level of commitment to P-5 football is much greater than Duke's, Virginia's or BC's and Syracuse's when you control for size.

The sad irony of all this is that Duke tried to get out of P-5 football and the conference would not let them because they wanted to punish Duke for running their FB program as a parasite on the backs UNC, State, Clemson, and UVa.

Navy Football would be a positive replacement for Duke Football.

Statefan, please elaborate on what you mean by "control for size"

WF's alumni association is tiny compared to FSU's or Pitt's or UNC's. Even then those are tiny compare to B10 and P12 schools. I crunched those numbers in a post here a few years ago and can't find it, but unless you know WF (and God knows I do since they are in my wallet) it is difficult to understand how small they are even compared to Duke. They almost always overachieve. Another way to express this is the main endowment or the endowment just related to athletic scholarships. Duke has all the money in the world. UVa and ND do not have all the money, but most. UNC, BC, and Pitt have money. Duke grossly underspends what it could spend on football. If they chose they could have a top 10 program - they do not.

Clemson amazingly overpunches it weight for football. BC, Syracuse, UVa, UNC, and NC State do just enough to get by. One of the problems is that spending at NC State, Duke, and UNC are compared directly in the same papers, and it becomes a poltiical issue when those numbers move in certain ways.

Point is, no one tries harder than WF other than Clemson.

Im not going to get into whos trying harder because that would be difficult to decipher. But if you want to judge "trying" equaling how much a program invests in fb, then Syracuse is trying more than Wake. I wouldnt be surprised if Virginia, Pitt and UNC also spends more on fb even though we all get about equal the payouts from the conference. I can not be sure about those other schools other than SU, because SU and Wake are the only 2 that I looked up.

(04-22-2021 05:22 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Using this data ultimately from the WSJ: https://csnbbs.com/thread-916418-post-17...id17265241

Quote:Clemson / 12.5% of Conference Value / $56,350,000 value of media share
Florida St./ 12.2% of Conference Value / $54,997,600 value of media share
Virginia Tech / 11.7% of Conference Value / $52,743,600 value of media share
Georgia Tech / 9.0% of Conference Value / $40,572,000 value of media share
Miami / 8.1% of Conference Value / $36,514,800 value of media share
N.C. St./ 7.5% of Conference Value / $33,810,000 value of media share
Louisville / 7.4% of Conference Value / $33,359,200 value of media share
North Carolina / 6.5% of Conference Value / $29,302,000 value of media share
Virginia / 5.7% of Conference Value / $25,695,600 value of media share
Syracuse / 5.1% of Conference Value / $22,990,800 value of media share
Pittsburgh / 4.8% of Conference Value / $21,638,400 value of media share
Boston College / 3.4% of Conference Value / $15,327,200 value of media share
Wake Forest / 3.2% of Conference Value / $14,425,600 value of media share
Duke / 2.8% of Conference Value / $12,622,400 value of media share
* Notre Dame's value is 5th nationally so if a full member of the ACC their % of Conference value would be 27.7% and would dwarf the rest of the ACC.

Option 1: Add ND as a full member
I think that's pretty obvious to everybody. It would be worth a substantial amount of money but ND wants no part of it. Probably $10m+/team/year.


Option 2: Cut football ballast. GT received $32.5m in 2020 from ACC media disbursements. Assuming everybody else got the same and football is 80% of the revenue ... the football shares are worth $26m/yr/team. Remove Duke FB. Remove Wake FB. That's $52m back in to the ACC divided by 12 = $4.3m/yr pay raise. If you also removed BC that would be $6.5m/yr pay raise. Those are somewhat drastic "anger the fan base" type moves which only yield a modest increase.


Option 3: Westward expansion.

Quote:Big 12
Texas / 31.3% of Conference Value / $112,680,000 value of media share (no T3)
Oklahoma / 25.0% of Conference Value / $90,000,000 value of media share (no T3)
Kansas St. / 7.8% of Conference Value / $28,080,000 value of media share
Oklahoma St. / 7.7% of Conference Value / $27,720,000 value of media share
Texas Tech / 6.9% of Conference Value / $24,840,000 value of media share
Kansas / 5.9% of Conference Value / $21,240,000 value of media share
T.C.U. / 5.4% of Conference Value / $19,440,000 value of media share
Iowa St. / 5.5% of Conference Value / $19,080,000 value of media share
Baylor / 3.0% of Conference Value / $10,800,000 value of media share
West Virginia / 1.7% of Conference Value / $6,120,000 value of media share

Not a lot of help except at the very top. That Kansas State is worth that much more than Kansas says everything about football's dominance in revenue. Kansas State is effectively a supersized DII school that has never done much of anything until Bill Snyder treated the JuCo ranks as his personal annual talent draft and turned KState football into a respectable program. There aren't many TV sets in Kansas either. And yet they easily surpass hoops blue blood Kansas. Presumably Texas requires Texas Tech to come with it and Oklahoma requires Oklahoma State to come with it. That dampens the impact but it's still a pretty substantial bump. Probably $10m+/team/year.

West Virginia ... wow. I'm sure they'd help increase the gate at Pitt and VT and maybe UVA. But they might end up being a boat anchor in TV land due to the WV diaspora and not many TVs in TV. Perhaps West Virginia is the Wyoming of the east.



Option 4: Fuhrer Mickey Merger
Disney gets tired of paying for 5 expensive competing sets of poorly divided conference assets in college sports and decides to go all in on the biggest markets in a bid to have a monopoly on them for advertising and carriage rates. This means merging the Big 12 and SEC and ACC together and redistributing the teams into tight geographies driven by history, tradition, rivalry, and viewership potential. Note this could very well also involve casting aside from football ballast, even in the SEC.

Quote:Alabama / 13.5% of Conference Value / $87,885,000 value of media share
Georgia / 11.9% of Conference Value / $77,469,000 value of media share
Auburn / 11.6% of Conference Value / $75,516,000 value of media share
Louisiana St./ 11.4% of Conference Value / $74,214,000 value of media share
Tennessee / 9.7% of Conference Value / $63,147,000 value of media share
Florida / 8.5% of Conference Value / $55,335,000 value of media share
Texas A&M / 7.2% of Conference Value / $46,872,000 value of media share
Arkansas/ 6.2% of Conference Value / $40,362,000 value of media share
South Carolina / 6.2% of Conference Value / $40,362,000 value of media share
Mississippi / 4.6% of Conference Value / $29,946,000 value of media share
Kentucky / 3.6% of Conference Value / $23,436,000 value of media share
Mississippi St./ 3.0% of Conference Value / $19,530,000 value of media share
Missouri / 1.6% of Conference Value / $10,416,000 value of media share
Vanderbilt / 1.1% of Conference Value / $7,161,000 value of media share

That's a rabbit hole where all possibilities open up. But in general it would involve blending together the SEC West and Big 12 South and the SEC East and ACC South. This recaptures a lot of lost high value inventory not currently played due to conference alignment.




Option 5: You made it, you keep it.
No more equal payouts from the ACC. What you earned is what you keep. So you don't have to scroll back up:

Quote:Clemson / 12.5% of Conference Value / $56,350,000 value of media share
Florida St./ 12.2% of Conference Value / $54,997,600 value of media share
Virginia Tech / 11.7% of Conference Value / $52,743,600 value of media share
Georgia Tech / 9.0% of Conference Value / $40,572,000 value of media share
Miami / 8.1% of Conference Value / $36,514,800 value of media share
N.C. St./ 7.5% of Conference Value / $33,810,000 value of media share
Louisville / 7.4% of Conference Value / $33,359,200 value of media share
North Carolina / 6.5% of Conference Value / $29,302,000 value of media share
Virginia / 5.7% of Conference Value / $25,695,600 value of media share
Syracuse / 5.1% of Conference Value / $22,990,800 value of media share
Pittsburgh / 4.8% of Conference Value / $21,638,400 value of media share
Boston College / 3.4% of Conference Value / $15,327,200 value of media share
Wake Forest / 3.2% of Conference Value / $14,425,600 value of media share
Duke / 2.8% of Conference Value / $12,622,400 value of media share
* Notre Dame's value is 5th nationally so if a full member of the ACC their % of Conference value would be 27.7% and would dwarf the rest of the ACC.

This would result in FSU, Clemson, GT, VT, and Miami getting a substantial pay increase. NC State and Louisville would be about a wash. Everybody else would receive a pay cut. Three teams would see their pay more than halved, and 6 (almost 7) teams would see a 8 figure pay cut. This means for this to happen a clear majority of the conference would have to vote to willingly take a pay cut. And nearly 1/3 of them a steep painful pay cut.




I think that covers all the actual realistic scenarios aside from having a massive donation infusion from fans/boosters/alumni to get your facilities and staffs to elite level to then win at an elite level to then expand the fan base and hopefully keep the feedback loop going. In the ACC this should be called "The IPTAY Approach".

The Wall Street Journal valuation modeling above is strictly for football...the WSJ does the identical analysis for basketball. Per the WSJ valuations, basketball adds another 40% value to the ACC schools. Unlike the other power conferences, basketball does make a difference when discussing "profitability" or "free cash flow" for ACC athletic programs.

Some oddities about WSJ valuations: Louisville basketball valuation ($320M) is nearly twice its football valuation ($176M); and Syracuse basketball valuation ($154M) is higher than its football valuation ($121M). If these valuations are accurate, then Louisville and Syracuse should have remained in the Big East and focused more on basketball...LOL


If WSJ valuations are to be believed as a proxy for media rights generation, then the accurate proportions would be

LOU 0.50 13.3%
CU 0.35 9.5%
FSU 0.34 9.1%
VT 0.32 8.7%
UNC 0.30 8.0%
SYR 0.28 7.4%
DU 0.26 7.0%
NCS 0.24 6.6%
GT 0.24 6.4%
MIA 0.23 6.2%
UVA 0.21 5.8%
PITT 0.20 5.5%
BC 0.11 3.0%
WF 0.11 3.0%
ND 0.01 0.4%
3.72 100.0%

The second column has the combined (football and basketball) WSJ valuation in billions of US$. Notre Dame's valuation is strictly the WSJ's basketball-only data.

Within the ACC, the generation of media rights payouts has little correlation to the WSJ valuation modeling. Clemson, Florida State and Miami are the bell cows that deliver media rights payouts (via viewership). To a lesser extent, Virginia Tech and Louisville are also above average contributors to the current media rights payouts.

(04-26-2021 03:59 PM)Statefan Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 03:28 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 03:10 PM)Statefan Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 02:07 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 01:19 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  The bottom three in the ACC are an easy call. Things get messy choosing the next. Cuse and Pitt are [] close to Cavman. And both actually try in football unlike Cavman.

I really like JR's scenario:
UNC and Duke to the SEC.
UVA and Pitt (or 'Cuse) to the B1G.
Wake to non-football status, leaving one ACC football team - NC State - in North Carolina.

Duke University is not going to attempt to play football in the Southeastern Conference. If Duke is not playing P-5 football a good chunk of the ACC's problem is solved. Wake's level of commitment to P-5 football is much greater than Duke's, Virginia's or BC's and Syracuse's when you control for size.

The sad irony of all this is that Duke tried to get out of P-5 football and the conference would not let them because they wanted to punish Duke for running their FB program as a parasite on the backs UNC, State, Clemson, and UVa.

Navy Football would be a positive replacement for Duke Football.

Statefan, please elaborate on what you mean by "control for size"

WF's alumni association is tiny compared to FSU's or Pitt's or UNC's. Even then those are tiny compare to B10 and P12 schools. I crunched those numbers in a post here a few years ago and can't find it, but unless you know WF (and God knows I do since they are in my wallet) it is difficult to understand how small they are even compared to Duke. They almost always overachieve. Another way to express this is the main endowment or the endowment just related to athletic scholarships. Duke has all the money in the world. UVa and ND do not have all the money, but most. UNC, BC, and Pitt have money. Duke grossly underspends what it could spend on football. If they chose they could have a top 10 program - they do not.

Clemson amazingly overpunches it weight for football. BC, Syracuse, UVa, UNC, and NC State do just enough to get by. One of the problems is that spending at NC State, Duke, and UNC are compared directly in the same papers, and it becomes a poltiical issue when those numbers move in certain ways.

Point is, no one tries harder than WF other than Clemson.

Wake Forest fans put their money where their mouths are. The average Deacon Club member contributes about twice the amount that a Rams Club member does. The problem is there are a lot more Rams Club members than Deacon Club members. Size matters.

(04-23-2021 08:11 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(04-23-2021 05:40 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(04-23-2021 04:31 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(04-23-2021 02:08 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(04-23-2021 01:15 PM)XLance Wrote:  It seems strange that with all of the cable cutting that is going on that the B1G payouts have been able to remain so high.
Are we to believe that only people in the south and west have discontinued cable service and those folks in the northeast and mid-west keep paying those bills?

No, it's about which fans will continue paying for cable no matter what just so they can watch their favorite team. The SEC and B1G both have plenty of those fans.

Making me pay for s hitty channels like The Big Ten Network is the exactly the reason I got rid of cable. I use Firesticks on all 6 televisions and only pay for the apps I want.

You can certainly get the ACCN without BTN (see Sling), but it's hard to get it without SECN bundled because... Disney. That said, if you DON'T subscribe to ACCN, you are yet another an example of why the SEC gets paid so much more - I promise you Kentucky fans won't let paying for the ACCN stop them from buying a subscription to the SECN!

You obviously don’t know UK fans.

A few years ago, May 2012, the Cincinnati Reds decided to honor UK’s NCAA championship basketball team thinking UK fans would show up in droves. Marty Brennaman said it best. UK fans are fans as long as it doesn’t cost them anything. The exact quote...

“I guess you’re Big Blue fans as long as you don’t have to go into your pocket and buy a ticket.”

Most UK fans I don’t have cable. Most are lucky to have a television or electricity so don’t expect UK fans to support the SEC Network.

That's not true.

They'll all spring for that blue t-shirt with the white K on it that only comes down half way over their beer gut. The men do too.

I wasn't there at that Reds game but if I recall the accounts of some that were, the big blue was resoundingly booed off the field.

(04-26-2021 01:03 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 12:00 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(04-26-2021 11:08 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Speaking to the OP, if you were going to downsize by 2 to increase everyone else’s share, I’d imagine that since Duke is well aligned at the heart of the conference’s power structure that WF and BC would be the two sacrificial lambs and then the divisions would need realigned.

Would the ACC really resort to that option though? It’s not like there hasn’t been a precedent for a cadre of schools abandoning a few of the weaker ones by reorganizing—the ACC core did it to the SoCon in 1953.

No rush on that. It would look bad to force someone out in football and then need a football team because so many schools dropped sports. Let's see how 'Pay for Play' and NIL work out first, then we can make draconian decisions on whether to oust schools from the conference.

1953 is way different than 2020. Other than Temple (a Football only member) being ousted from the BEFC, can anyone name a time when a Major conference kicked a school out of there conference in the last 30 years? I don't think so.

Yes. When the SWC merged with the Big 8, four teams were left out: Houston, Rice, TCU and SMU.

That’s not kicking them out though. That’s starting a new conference much like the Mountain West and C-USA before it.

This isn’t going to happen anyway. Besides, football as we know it is probably living on borrowed time so just enjoy it while it lasts.

(04-22-2021 08:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-22-2021 07:30 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(04-22-2021 05:49 PM)Statefan Wrote:  If Duke and WF are no longer competing in the ACC in football that's going to improve NC State's and UNC's average football record by about a half a game. Over the last decade State is 5-5 over WF and UNC is 5-5 against Duke. Over the last 20 year if my numbers are right Carolina is 14-13 over Duke and WF, while State is 12-13 against WF and Duke.

They are trap games for both State and Carolina.

It goes beyond that. What if NC State and UNC also split their best recruits, best coaches, and TV exposure?

Mark, the highest possible numbers for a 16 team conference would be obtained by Virginia and Pitt leaving for the Big 10, Duke and North Carolina leaving for the SEC, and Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Kansas, and Baylor joining the ACC while Wake Forest drops to everything but football. That way Notre Dame could join and Louisville would switch west and you would have this:

ACC West:
Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech

ACC East:
Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, N.C. State, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Virginia Tech

That conference would have a worth of a little over 5.7-5.8 billion with an average team payout of around 57 million give another possible 2 to 3 million more for scheduling, etc. So roughly 58-59 million per team. That makes you competitive. Actually both N.C. State and Virginia Tech have more football value than UNC and UVa. And Pitt is on the lower end with Duke.

The SEC and Big 10 would pick up markets but without any revenue gains to speak of while the ACC/Big 12 merger would result in catching up as much as is possible, but certainly close to that 10 million range in difference. Without N.D. you are looking at almost 10 million less.

I'm not saying this is likely, just that this is a big of a turnaround as would be within the realm of possibility. You would be close to tripling the commercial value of the ACC which is around 2.3 billion now.

Why would the SEC want Duke football?
Is Carolina that valuable to the SEC?

(04-30-2021 05:01 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(04-22-2021 08:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-22-2021 07:30 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(04-22-2021 05:49 PM)Statefan Wrote:  If Duke and WF are no longer competing in the ACC in football that's going to improve NC State's and UNC's average football record by about a half a game. Over the last decade State is 5-5 over WF and UNC is 5-5 against Duke. Over the last 20 year if my numbers are right Carolina is 14-13 over Duke and WF, while State is 12-13 against WF and Duke.

They are trap games for both State and Carolina.

It goes beyond that. What if NC State and UNC also split their best recruits, best coaches, and TV exposure?

Mark, the highest possible numbers for a 16 team conference would be obtained by Virginia and Pitt leaving for the Big 10, Duke and North Carolina leaving for the SEC, and Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Kansas, and Baylor joining the ACC while Wake Forest drops to everything but football. That way Notre Dame could join and Louisville would switch west and you would have this:

ACC West:
Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech

ACC East:
Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, N.C. State, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Virginia Tech

That conference would have a worth of a little over 5.7-5.8 billion with an average team payout of around 57 million give another possible 2 to 3 million more for scheduling, etc. So roughly 58-59 million per team. That makes you competitive. Actually both N.C. State and Virginia Tech have more football value than UNC and UVa. And Pitt is on the lower end with Duke.

The SEC and Big 10 would pick up markets but without any revenue gains to speak of while the ACC/Big 12 merger would result in catching up as much as is possible, but certainly close to that 10 million range in difference. Without N.D. you are looking at almost 10 million less.

I'm not saying this is likely, just that this is a big of a turnaround as would be within the realm of possibility. You would be close to tripling the commercial value of the ACC which is around 2.3 billion now.

Why would the SEC want Duke football?
Is Carolina that valuable to the SEC?

I think he was looking at (1) getting into North Carolina, and (2) pumping up the value of SEC basketball.