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+---- Thread: Realignment Revenue Options (/thread-921035.html)
Realignment Revenue Options - georgia_tech_swagger - 04-22-2021 05:22 PM
Using this data ultimately from the WSJ: https://csnbbs.com/thread-916418-post-17265241.html#pid17265241
Quote:Clemson / 12.5% of Conference Value / $56,350,000 value of media share
Florida St./ 12.2% of Conference Value / $54,997,600 value of media share
Virginia Tech / 11.7% of Conference Value / $52,743,600 value of media share
Georgia Tech / 9.0% of Conference Value / $40,572,000 value of media share
Miami / 8.1% of Conference Value / $36,514,800 value of media share
N.C. St./ 7.5% of Conference Value / $33,810,000 value of media share
Louisville / 7.4% of Conference Value / $33,359,200 value of media share
North Carolina / 6.5% of Conference Value / $29,302,000 value of media share
Virginia / 5.7% of Conference Value / $25,695,600 value of media share
Syracuse / 5.1% of Conference Value / $22,990,800 value of media share
Pittsburgh / 4.8% of Conference Value / $21,638,400 value of media share
Boston College / 3.4% of Conference Value / $15,327,200 value of media share
Wake Forest / 3.2% of Conference Value / $14,425,600 value of media share
Duke / 2.8% of Conference Value / $12,622,400 value of media share
* Notre Dame's value is 5th nationally so if a full member of the ACC their % of Conference value would be 27.7% and would dwarf the rest of the ACC.
Option 1: Add ND as a full member
I think that's pretty obvious to everybody. It would be worth a substantial amount of money but ND wants no part of it. Probably $10m+/team/year.
Option 2: Cut football ballast. GT received $32.5m in 2020 from ACC media disbursements. Assuming everybody else got the same and football is 80% of the revenue ... the football shares are worth $26m/yr/team. Remove Duke FB. Remove Wake FB. That's $52m back in to the ACC divided by 12 = $4.3m/yr pay raise. If you also removed BC that would be $6.5m/yr pay raise. Those are somewhat drastic "anger the fan base" type moves which only yield a modest increase.
Option 3: Westward expansion.
Quote:Big 12
Texas / 31.3% of Conference Value / $112,680,000 value of media share (no T3)
Oklahoma / 25.0% of Conference Value / $90,000,000 value of media share (no T3)
Kansas St. / 7.8% of Conference Value / $28,080,000 value of media share
Oklahoma St. / 7.7% of Conference Value / $27,720,000 value of media share
Texas Tech / 6.9% of Conference Value / $24,840,000 value of media share
Kansas / 5.9% of Conference Value / $21,240,000 value of media share
T.C.U. / 5.4% of Conference Value / $19,440,000 value of media share
Iowa St. / 5.5% of Conference Value / $19,080,000 value of media share
Baylor / 3.0% of Conference Value / $10,800,000 value of media share
West Virginia / 1.7% of Conference Value / $6,120,000 value of media share
Not a lot of help except at the very top. That Kansas State is worth that much more than Kansas says everything about football's dominance in revenue. Kansas State is effectively a supersized DII school that has never done much of anything until Bill Snyder treated the JuCo ranks as his personal annual talent draft and turned KState football into a respectable program. There aren't many TV sets in Kansas either. And yet they easily surpass hoops blue blood Kansas. Presumably Texas requires Texas Tech to come with it and Oklahoma requires Oklahoma State to come with it. That dampens the impact but it's still a pretty substantial bump. Probably $10m+/team/year.
West Virginia ... wow. I'm sure they'd help increase the gate at Pitt and VT and maybe UVA. But they might end up being a boat anchor in TV land due to the WV diaspora and not many TVs in TV. Perhaps West Virginia is the Wyoming of the east.
Option 4: Fuhrer Mickey Merger
Disney gets tired of paying for 5 expensive competing sets of poorly divided conference assets in college sports and decides to go all in on the biggest markets in a bid to have a monopoly on them for advertising and carriage rates. This means merging the Big 12 and SEC and ACC together and redistributing the teams into tight geographies driven by history, tradition, rivalry, and viewership potential. Note this could very well also involve casting aside from football ballast, even in the SEC.
Quote:Alabama / 13.5% of Conference Value / $87,885,000 value of media share
Georgia / 11.9% of Conference Value / $77,469,000 value of media share
Auburn / 11.6% of Conference Value / $75,516,000 value of media share
Louisiana St./ 11.4% of Conference Value / $74,214,000 value of media share
Tennessee / 9.7% of Conference Value / $63,147,000 value of media share
Florida / 8.5% of Conference Value / $55,335,000 value of media share
Texas A&M / 7.2% of Conference Value / $46,872,000 value of media share
Arkansas/ 6.2% of Conference Value / $40,362,000 value of media share
South Carolina / 6.2% of Conference Value / $40,362,000 value of media share
Mississippi / 4.6% of Conference Value / $29,946,000 value of media share
Kentucky / 3.6% of Conference Value / $23,436,000 value of media share
Mississippi St./ 3.0% of Conference Value / $19,530,000 value of media share
Missouri / 1.6% of Conference Value / $10,416,000 value of media share
Vanderbilt / 1.1% of Conference Value / $7,161,000 value of media share
That's a rabbit hole where all possibilities open up. But in general it would involve blending together the SEC West and Big 12 South and the SEC East and ACC South. This recaptures a lot of lost high value inventory not currently played due to conference alignment.
Option 5: You made it, you keep it.
No more equal payouts from the ACC. What you earned is what you keep. So you don't have to scroll back up:
Quote:Clemson / 12.5% of Conference Value / $56,350,000 value of media share
Florida St./ 12.2% of Conference Value / $54,997,600 value of media share
Virginia Tech / 11.7% of Conference Value / $52,743,600 value of media share
Georgia Tech / 9.0% of Conference Value / $40,572,000 value of media share
Miami / 8.1% of Conference Value / $36,514,800 value of media share
N.C. St./ 7.5% of Conference Value / $33,810,000 value of media share
Louisville / 7.4% of Conference Value / $33,359,200 value of media share
North Carolina / 6.5% of Conference Value / $29,302,000 value of media share
Virginia / 5.7% of Conference Value / $25,695,600 value of media share
Syracuse / 5.1% of Conference Value / $22,990,800 value of media share
Pittsburgh / 4.8% of Conference Value / $21,638,400 value of media share
Boston College / 3.4% of Conference Value / $15,327,200 value of media share
Wake Forest / 3.2% of Conference Value / $14,425,600 value of media share
Duke / 2.8% of Conference Value / $12,622,400 value of media share
* Notre Dame's value is 5th nationally so if a full member of the ACC their % of Conference value would be 27.7% and would dwarf the rest of the ACC.
This would result in FSU, Clemson, GT, VT, and Miami getting a substantial pay increase. NC State and Louisville would be about a wash. Everybody else would receive a pay cut. Three teams would see their pay more than halved, and 6 (almost 7) teams would see a 8 figure pay cut. This means for this to happen a clear majority of the conference would have to vote to willingly take a pay cut. And nearly 1/3 of them a steep painful pay cut.
I think that covers all the actual realistic scenarios aside from having a massive donation infusion from fans/boosters/alumni to get your facilities and staffs to elite level to then win at an elite level to then expand the fan base and hopefully keep the feedback loop going. In the ACC this should be called "The IPTAY Approach".
RE: Realignment Revenue Options - Statefan - 04-22-2021 05:49 PM
If Duke and WF are no longer competing in the ACC in football that's going to improve NC State's and UNC's average football record by about a half a game. Over the last decade State is 5-5 over WF and UNC is 5-5 against Duke. Over the last 20 year if my numbers are right Carolina is 14-13 over Duke and WF, while State is 12-13 against WF and Duke.
They are trap games for both State and Carolina.
RE: Realignment Revenue Options - Hokie Mark - 04-22-2021 07:30 PM
(04-22-2021 05:49 PM)Statefan Wrote: If Duke and WF are no longer competing in the ACC in football that's going to improve NC State's and UNC's average football record by about a half a game. Over the last decade State is 5-5 over WF and UNC is 5-5 against Duke. Over the last 20 year if my numbers are right Carolina is 14-13 over Duke and WF, while State is 12-13 against WF and Duke.
They are trap games for both State and Carolina.
It goes beyond that. What if NC State and UNC also split their best recruits, best coaches, and TV exposure?
RE: Realignment Revenue Options - JRsec - 04-22-2021 08:00 PM
(04-22-2021 07:30 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:(04-22-2021 05:49 PM)Statefan Wrote: If Duke and WF are no longer competing in the ACC in football that's going to improve NC State's and UNC's average football record by about a half a game. Over the last decade State is 5-5 over WF and UNC is 5-5 against Duke. Over the last 20 year if my numbers are right Carolina is 14-13 over Duke and WF, while State is 12-13 against WF and Duke.
They are trap games for both State and Carolina.
It goes beyond that. What if NC State and UNC also split their best recruits, best coaches, and TV exposure?
Mark, the highest possible numbers for a 16 team conference would be obtained by Virginia and Pitt leaving for the Big 10, Duke and North Carolina leaving for the SEC, and Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Kansas, and Baylor joining the ACC while Wake Forest drops to everything but football. That way Notre Dame could join and Louisville would switch west and you would have this:
ACC West:
Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
ACC East:
Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, N.C. State, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
That conference would have a worth of a little over 5.7-5.8 billion with an average team payout of around 57 million give another possible 2 to 3 million more for scheduling, etc. So roughly 58-59 million per team. That makes you competitive. Actually both N.C. State and Virginia Tech have more football value than UNC and UVa. And Pitt is on the lower end with Duke.
The SEC and Big 10 would pick up markets but without any revenue gains to speak of while the ACC/Big 12 merger would result in catching up as much as is possible, but certainly close to that 10 million range in difference. Without N.D. you are looking at almost 10 million less.
I'm not saying this is likely, just that this is a big of a turnaround as would be within the realm of possibility. You would be close to tripling the commercial value of the ACC which is around 2.3 billion now.
RE: Realignment Revenue Options - Hokie Mark - 04-22-2021 08:14 PM
(04-22-2021 08:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:(04-22-2021 07:30 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:(04-22-2021 05:49 PM)Statefan Wrote: If Duke and WF are no longer competing in the ACC in football that's going to improve NC State's and UNC's average football record by about a half a game. Over the last decade State is 5-5 over WF and UNC is 5-5 against Duke. Over the last 20 year if my numbers are right Carolina is 14-13 over Duke and WF, while State is 12-13 against WF and Duke.
They are trap games for both State and Carolina.
It goes beyond that. What if NC State and UNC also split their best recruits, best coaches, and TV exposure?
Mark, the highest possible numbers for a 16 team conference would be obtained by Virginia and Pitt leaving for the Big 10, Duke and North Carolina leaving for the SEC, and Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Kansas, and Baylor joining the ACC while Wake Forest drops to everything but football. That way Notre Dame could join and Louisville would switch west and you would have this:
ACC West:
Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
ACC East:
Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, N.C. State, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
That conference would have a worth of a little over 5.7-5.8 billion with an average team payout of around 57 million give another possible 2 to 3 million more for scheduling, etc. So roughly 58-59 million per team. That makes you competitive. Actually both N.C. State and Virginia Tech have more football value than UNC and UVa. And Pitt is on the lower end with Duke.
The SEC and Big 10 would pick up markets but without any revenue gains to speak of while the ACC/Big 12 merger would result in catching up as much as is possible, but certainly close to that 10 million range in difference. Without N.D. you are looking at almost 10 million less.
I'm not saying this is likely, just that this is a big of a turnaround as would be within the realm of possibility. You would be close to tripling the commercial value of the ACC which is around 2.3 billion now.
Yes, let's do this!
RE: Realignment Revenue Options - XLance - 04-22-2021 08:20 PM
GTS you should send your post to the commissioner.
RE: Realignment Revenue Options - JRsec - 04-22-2021 08:23 PM
(04-22-2021 08:14 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:(04-22-2021 08:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:(04-22-2021 07:30 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:(04-22-2021 05:49 PM)Statefan Wrote: If Duke and WF are no longer competing in the ACC in football that's going to improve NC State's and UNC's average football record by about a half a game. Over the last decade State is 5-5 over WF and UNC is 5-5 against Duke. Over the last 20 year if my numbers are right Carolina is 14-13 over Duke and WF, while State is 12-13 against WF and Duke.
They are trap games for both State and Carolina.
It goes beyond that. What if NC State and UNC also split their best recruits, best coaches, and TV exposure?
Mark, the highest possible numbers for a 16 team conference would be obtained by Virginia and Pitt leaving for the Big 10, Duke and North Carolina leaving for the SEC, and Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Kansas, and Baylor joining the ACC while Wake Forest drops to everything but football. That way Notre Dame could join and Louisville would switch west and you would have this:
ACC West:
Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
ACC East:
Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, N.C. State, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
That conference would have a worth of a little over 5.7-5.8 billion with an average team payout of around 57 million give another possible 2 to 3 million more for scheduling, etc. So roughly 58-59 million per team. That makes you competitive. Actually both N.C. State and Virginia Tech have more football value than UNC and UVa. And Pitt is on the lower end with Duke.
The SEC and Big 10 would pick up markets but without any revenue gains to speak of while the ACC/Big 12 merger would result in catching up as much as is possible, but certainly close to that 10 million range in difference. Without N.D. you are looking at almost 10 million less.
I'm not saying this is likely, just that this is a big of a turnaround as would be within the realm of possibility. You would be close to tripling the commercial value of the ACC which is around 2.3 billion now.
Yes, let's do this!
Actually I miscounted, drop Baylor and place Miami in the West as well and you have even a slightly better 16.
RE: Realignment Revenue Options - esayem - 04-22-2021 11:20 PM
...or just drop BC, Syracuse, Pitt, and Louisville then look into option 5.
RE: Realignment Revenue Options - georgia_tech_swagger - 04-23-2021 10:16 AM
(04-22-2021 11:20 PM)esayem Wrote: ...or just drop BC, Syracuse, Pitt, and Louisville then look into option 5.
So you're going to increase revenue by dropping one of the teams who currently puts in just slightly more than they take out? More, might I add, than UNC puts in?
RE: Realignment Revenue Options - Hokie Mark - 04-23-2021 11:03 AM
(04-23-2021 10:16 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:(04-22-2021 11:20 PM)esayem Wrote: ...or just drop BC, Syracuse, Pitt, and Louisville then look into option 5.
So you're going to increase revenue by dropping one of the teams who currently puts in just slightly more than they take out? More, might I add, than UNC puts in?
esayem hasn't realized yet that all of the expansion teams (GT through Louisville) have benefitted the ACC's bottom line, whereas the REAL problem has always been the weakness of some of the founding members.
RE: Realignment Revenue Options - random asian guy - 04-23-2021 11:58 AM
I wonder how valuable WVU would be in the ACC. Probably a lot more than $6 million but I suspect it would be still lower than Lousville’s value.
RE: Realignment Revenue Options - Hokie Mark - 04-23-2021 12:16 PM
(04-23-2021 11:58 AM)random asian guy Wrote: I wonder how valuable WVU would be in the ACC. Probably a lot more than $6 million but I suspect it would be still lower than Lousville’s value.
The problem now is the length of the TV contract. Who wants to extend it past 2036 regardless of payouts?
I wonder if the ACC CG is specifically mentioned in the TV contract. If not, the ACC should drop it and go to division-less scheduling immediately (tell ESPN they'll be happy to bring back the ACC CG under a separate contract).
RE: Realignment Revenue Options - XLance - 04-23-2021 01:15 PM
It seems strange that with all of the cable cutting that is going on that the B1G payouts have been able to remain so high.
Are we to believe that only people in the south and west have discontinued cable service and those folks in the northeast and mid-west keep paying those bills?
RE: Realignment Revenue Options - Hokie Mark - 04-23-2021 02:08 PM
(04-23-2021 01:15 PM)XLance Wrote: It seems strange that with all of the cable cutting that is going on that the B1G payouts have been able to remain so high.
Are we to believe that only people in the south and west have discontinued cable service and those folks in the northeast and mid-west keep paying those bills?
No, it's about which fans will continue paying for cable no matter what just so they can watch their favorite team. The SEC and B1G both have plenty of those fans.
RE: Realignment Revenue Options - JRsec - 04-23-2021 02:15 PM
(04-23-2021 02:08 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:(04-23-2021 01:15 PM)XLance Wrote: It seems strange that with all of the cable cutting that is going on that the B1G payouts have been able to remain so high.
Are we to believe that only people in the south and west have discontinued cable service and those folks in the northeast and mid-west keep paying those bills?
No, it's about which fans will continue paying for cable no matter what just so they can watch their favorite team. The SEC and B1G both have plenty of those fans.
Correct. It's the only reason my wife and I have cable at all. We get local news with the modern antenna, stream what we want to watch (such a very nice thing as opposed to being limited to 1 hour on 1 day a week), and own over 300 movies we watch when the mood strikes us. That collection stretches from the 1920's until today covering almost 100 years of the best films. We are better than TCM and have no need for any of the Epix, HBO, Showtime, Starz, etc. In fact we laugh every time they have a free weekend and it's not only movies we passed on, but the same movies they've shown every free weekend.
Sports is the only thing keeping Cable in business and even the streaming version of the weather channel gives us more pertinent information.
RE: Realignment Revenue Options - CardinalJim - 04-23-2021 04:31 PM
(04-23-2021 02:08 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:(04-23-2021 01:15 PM)XLance Wrote: It seems strange that with all of the cable cutting that is going on that the B1G payouts have been able to remain so high.
Are we to believe that only people in the south and west have discontinued cable service and those folks in the northeast and mid-west keep paying those bills?
No, it's about which fans will continue paying for cable no matter what just so they can watch their favorite team. The SEC and B1G both have plenty of those fans.
Making me pay for s hitty channels like The Big Ten Network is the exactly the reason I got rid of cable. I use Firesticks on all 6 televisions and only pay for the apps I want.
RE: Realignment Revenue Options - Hokie Mark - 04-23-2021 05:40 PM
(04-23-2021 04:31 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:(04-23-2021 02:08 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:(04-23-2021 01:15 PM)XLance Wrote: It seems strange that with all of the cable cutting that is going on that the B1G payouts have been able to remain so high.
Are we to believe that only people in the south and west have discontinued cable service and those folks in the northeast and mid-west keep paying those bills?
No, it's about which fans will continue paying for cable no matter what just so they can watch their favorite team. The SEC and B1G both have plenty of those fans.
Making me pay for s hitty channels like The Big Ten Network is the exactly the reason I got rid of cable. I use Firesticks on all 6 televisions and only pay for the apps I want.
You can certainly get the ACCN without BTN (see Sling), but it's hard to get it without SECN bundled because... Disney. That said, if you DON'T subscribe to ACCN, you are yet another an example of why the SEC gets paid so much more - I promise you Kentucky fans won't let paying for the ACCN stop them from buying a subscription to the SECN!
RE: Realignment Revenue Options - esayem - 04-23-2021 06:43 PM
(04-23-2021 10:16 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:(04-22-2021 11:20 PM)esayem Wrote: ...or just drop BC, Syracuse, Pitt, and Louisville then look into option 5.
So you're going to increase revenue by dropping one of the teams who currently puts in just slightly more than they take out? More, might I add, than UNC puts in?
Hell yeah!
Now the ACC can offer a CCG with 10!
RE: Realignment Revenue Options - CardinalJim - 04-23-2021 08:11 PM
(04-23-2021 05:40 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:(04-23-2021 04:31 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:(04-23-2021 02:08 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:(04-23-2021 01:15 PM)XLance Wrote: It seems strange that with all of the cable cutting that is going on that the B1G payouts have been able to remain so high.
Are we to believe that only people in the south and west have discontinued cable service and those folks in the northeast and mid-west keep paying those bills?
No, it's about which fans will continue paying for cable no matter what just so they can watch their favorite team. The SEC and B1G both have plenty of those fans.
Making me pay for s hitty channels like The Big Ten Network is the exactly the reason I got rid of cable. I use Firesticks on all 6 televisions and only pay for the apps I want.
You can certainly get the ACCN without BTN (see Sling), but it's hard to get it without SECN bundled because... Disney. That said, if you DON'T subscribe to ACCN, you are yet another an example of why the SEC gets paid so much more - I promise you Kentucky fans won't let paying for the ACCN stop them from buying a subscription to the SECN!
You obviously don’t know UK fans.
A few years ago, May 2012, the Cincinnati Reds decided to honor UK’s NCAA championship basketball team thinking UK fans would show up in droves. Marty Brennaman said it best. UK fans are fans as long as it doesn’t cost them anything. The exact quote...
“I guess you’re Big Blue fans as long as you don’t have to go into your pocket and buy a ticket.”
Most UK fans I don’t have cable. Most are lucky to have a television or electricity so don’t expect UK fans to support the SEC Network.
RE: Realignment Revenue Options - Hokie Mark - 04-23-2021 08:26 PM
(04-23-2021 08:11 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:(04-23-2021 05:40 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:(04-23-2021 04:31 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:(04-23-2021 02:08 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:(04-23-2021 01:15 PM)XLance Wrote: It seems strange that with all of the cable cutting that is going on that the B1G payouts have been able to remain so high.
Are we to believe that only people in the south and west have discontinued cable service and those folks in the northeast and mid-west keep paying those bills?
No, it's about which fans will continue paying for cable no matter what just so they can watch their favorite team. The SEC and B1G both have plenty of those fans.
Making me pay for s hitty channels like The Big Ten Network is the exactly the reason I got rid of cable. I use Firesticks on all 6 televisions and only pay for the apps I want.
You can certainly get the ACCN without BTN (see Sling), but it's hard to get it without SECN bundled because... Disney. That said, if you DON'T subscribe to ACCN, you are yet another an example of why the SEC gets paid so much more - I promise you Kentucky fans won't let paying for the ACCN stop them from buying a subscription to the SECN!
You obviously don’t know UK fans.
A few years ago, May 2012, the Cincinnati Reds decided to honor UK’s NCAA championship basketball team thinking UK fans would show up in droves. Marty Brennaman said it best. UK fans are fans as long as it doesn’t cost them anything. The exact quote...
“I guess you’re Big Blue fans as long as you don’t have to go into your pocket and buy a ticket.”
Most UK fans I don’t have cable. Most are lucky to have a television or electricity so don’t expect UK fans to support the SEC Network.
Actually, I've been to Knott County, KY (coal mining area). Those were some of the poorest people I've even seen in the United States. Besides that, now that I think of it, I doubt cable was even an option for them (satellite maybe, but not cable).
I concede your point.