(04-19-2021 03:30 PM)random asian guy Wrote: (04-18-2021 05:38 PM)JRsec Wrote: (04-18-2021 04:03 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: Lots of potential and out of the box thinking. IMO, the B12 is primed to get a substantial increase in their next media renegotiations (so long as Oklahoma is willing to stick with Texas)...but the conference is the smallest of the P5 and could use greater stability.
Maybe Phillips & ESPN can do something during this look-in window. If not, this provides an alternative to consider.
To make this happen you need to do several things. First you can't take all 10 or you are just averaging what the Big 12 makes with what the ACC makes. What you need are premium brands, premium ad rates in major markets, and something that pleases Texas a lot.
If you took Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas State this is what could happen. You create 2 conferences of 18 schools each under ESPN completely, the SEC and ACC. The ACC adds six to have a regional division for the Horns. This keeps Texa-homa together and with ESPN encouraging A&M and T.C.U. playing Texas OOC annually it sets up for the Horns to play 8 games in the state of Texas per year. (a 6 game home schedule which includes OU) and an away game with Tech or Baylor as they rotate home and away annually in division and an away game with T.C.U. or A&M as they rotate home and away annually. This is better than the 8 home game slate they play in the Big 12 and would satisfy the Texas business model completely. That way they travel for 3 conference games a year in the ACC and have 3 current ACC teams rotate in annually. With OU playing in DFW annually Texas will only have 2 division games that they would play out of state (OSU/KSU).
Those 6 schools have a market of nearly 35 million and KState has the much higher football value and plays both revenue sports competitively.
What the ACC would need to do to make this work is to give up 2 market redundant schools (Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Miami or Florida) of their choice. ESPN would likely prefer Va Tech and N.C. State in the SEC as that opens up more marketing opportunities in 2 states of 20 million where advertising and network access could be potentially double dipped. The SEC would likely prefer (F.S.U. or Miami and N.C. State) as one of the Florida schools would add to our revenue for advertising in Florida but their departure would not damage what the ACC gets there now. And N.C. State is closer to the core, though Virginia Tech is certainly accessible for 4 of our schools. The SEC picking up Kansas for hoops props and Missouri's rival and adding T.C.U. for a bigger slice of DFW which helps A&M and Arkansas would find a positive. Those four probably don't add that much to the SEC revenue but they 6 headed to the ACC would certainly add in a major way for you, especially with N.D. keeping a partial.
This isn't "THE DEAL" but for something to have a good chance to happen ESPN, the SEC, and the ACC have to find something good in it. And for 2024 the breaking up of the Big 12 is far easier to handle placing 8 schools because it covers all conference by laws, is enough to dissolve the conference, and the GOR expires.
Have fun playing around with this but it will be a concept like this one that will have the greatest chance of happening.
You are very knowledgeable, certainly much more than I am. But I have to ask this: why does the ACC have to give up two teams and give them to the SEC? Can the ACC, the Big 12, and the ESPN make a deal without the SEC?
Well because ESPN has to maintain good relations with both and with the Big 12 schools involved. The SEC has been angling for Texas since 1987 when the two first talked. If the SEC is to be cut out of the loop they won't stay warm to ESPN very long, and might well offer Texas on their own. If ESPN interferes you have a lawsuit.
So it is in the interest of ESPN to work a deal, like they tried to do in 2010-1, but which fell through at the last moment.
Kansas will move if Kansas State has a solid landing spot. Texas will move if all of its minions are provided for. Oklahoma would have an easier time moving if OSU is provided for.
If you merge the ACC with the entire Big 12 you have 10 schools worth an annual payout of 38 million and 14 schools worth an annual payout of 27.2 million. If you average the 10 Big 12 schools make less and the 14 ACC schools make more. That's not going to work for the Big 12 and it's not going to solve the ACC's revenue gap with the SEC or Big 10.
The only way to help the ACC close that gap is to move the largest revenue programs of the Big 12 to the ACC. Texas and Oklahoma are absolutely the top 2. But Oklahoma State and Kansas State are top 6. Tech appeases Texas as does Baylor which permits UT to keep the games inside Texas they wish to play. The ACC's average goes up with all 6 of those schools in terms of attendance, Gross Total Revenue, and WSJ valuations. If you cut two schools who can't add as much value due to their numbers and their duplicated markets you close more of the revenue gap. If the SEC and ESPN both get something they want out of it then it is a winner for everyone. But if you are going to ask the SEC to not try to land 2 of the 3 most valuable remaining prizes in realignment then you are going to have to make it worth their while. T.C.U and Kansas are sub on every SEC metric except markets represented. This is why getting added market help from the ACC adds would make up for some of the loss of not going after Texas and Oklahoma.
I think this concept's only chance of happening (which is what we are discussing) might be found in this kind of approach. Otherwise the SEC goes after Texas and Oklahoma hard in which case the revenue gaps grows significantly more. And that's not a threat, that's simply reality, and the doing of what is best for the SEC.
As the ACC stands what does it really have to offer Texas as an independent? 7 games with which to schedule what they freely schedule without 5 ACC games now, and less money. The SEC can offer them 1 road game in the state of Texas by taking Texas Tech with them since the SEC already has A&M. So Texas gets to play 7 home games in Texas (2 in division), likely keeps the RRR for an 8th, and plays 4 conference games at home, possibly 5 with expansion, and gets back on their schedule L.S.U., Arkansas, and A&M annually to go with Tech and a lot more money. What ESPN can do is encourage A&M and TCU to schedule them as well so if the ACC built a division around them Texas has much of what it wants and a lot of their scheduling issues are resolved.
Texas is more concerned with how many games they play inside the state of Texas than they are with money, even though money is still a prime motivator. Prima facia the move of Texas to the ACC as an independent doesn't make any sense, or business sense. You'll have to build a division around Texas to make it appealing to them and that means you need to place 8 Big 12 schools in safe havens to make it possible. That means you'll need help from the SEC.
So now you are right back where we started. Whatever transpires has to be something out of which ESPN / the SEC / and the ACC all get something they want.
